It’s Done
Press conference at two. Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio for Erik Bedard in the most anti-climactic trade in the history of mankind.
So, now that’s official, and practically everything that could be written about this trade has been, I’d like to offer up one last question to those who think the Mariners have done well this off-season in revamping their pitching staff. Assuming that Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva both stay healthy and make their 34 starts, what do you expect the Mariners record to be in those 68 games?
36-32? 38-30? 40-28? I’d imagine that it’s almost certainly going to be somewhere in that range.
The Mariners record in the 68 games in 2008 that were started by Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, and Ryan Feierabend? 32-36.
Yep, for all the talk about how terrible the back end of the Mariners rotation was last year (and in terms of individual performance, it was), the Mariners were a .470 club when their #4/#5 starters were on the hill. Even if you believe they’ll be a .560 club with Bedard and Silva on the hill, and if you believe that neither will miss a start all season, then you’re expecting the team to go 38-30 in those 68 games. That’s a 6 win improvement.
(Bedard + Silva) - (Weaver + Ramirez + Feierabend + Baek) = 6 wins, if you assume that no one gets hurt, everyone else on the roster plays at their ‘07 level, Wilkerson = Guillen, and losing Sherrill has no impact on the bullpen.
Yep, this trade still sucks.
I’m already past the suckiness of this thing.
It will be fun watching both Felix and Bedard with Putz waiting in the pen.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:44 pmAt least we can all stop frantically looking for the final word on the trade. My productivity at work just doubled for next week over the past 2.
Minor victories… we have to take the minor victories.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:45 pmF**k.
34-34. If they are lucky. Doesn’t matter who is pitching when you can’t play defense or score runs.
God this team is so frustrating to love. I haven’t been this unexcited for spring training since the Dick Williams days.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:47 pmWhy do you hate the Mariners?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:47 pm(dripping with sarcasm)
Dave, What do you attribute Bedard’s increase of K’s per 9ins in 2007? Is it sustainable?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:48 pm[ponies]
February 8th, 2008 at 12:50 pmI can think of a few similar trades to this one involving top-notch starting pitchers (Langston to Montreal, Johnson to Houston, Colon to the Angels)…but I’m no baseball historian. Has the team receiving the “proven veteran” ever come out on top in these deals?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:50 pmhmmm…so what were the #2 and #3 pitchers records for the Mariners last year since that is who these two are replacing. I’d say comparing Washburn’s expectations and # 5 or Silva and #5 to last years 4 & 5, then using Bedard and Silva or Bedard and Washburn to the #2 & #3 would give you a more accurate +/-.
Felix
February 8th, 2008 at 12:51 pmBedard
Silva
Washburn
Whoever
[violating button terms]
February 8th, 2008 at 12:52 pm[find a keyboard with working shift buttons before you post (there should be one below enter and one below caps lock). Thank you]
February 8th, 2008 at 12:53 pmThose are indeed some enlightening numbers. I wonder though, how many games HoRam and Weaver made COMPLETELY unwinnable. Games that if they even had a mediocre start we could’ve won, but ended up w/ NO chance. Sure seemed like there were a lot of those, but I could be wrong.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pmJesus, I seem to have come to the P-I board by mistake judging from the comments on this thread.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pmI wonder how many games Sherrill saved with him awesomeness.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:56 pm[ponies]
February 8th, 2008 at 12:56 pmI am starting to understand why the Mariners are profitable each year. The vast majority of their fans don’t understand baseball and are just happy to see the pretty uniforms and the Moose.
I won’t pay for mediocrity, especially when most of the hope for the future just got shipped across the country. Oh well. Beer is too expensive at Safeco anyway.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pm#6 — Jeff Weaver was not swapped for Cy Young candidate. The M’s chose not to resign Weaver. The M’s acquired a Cy Young candidate for a good, young starting RF, a great lefty reliever, and three pitching prospects.
#7 — You probably mean Colon to the Expos.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pmLet’s just hope Bedard has an amazing year, wins the Cy Young, and gives us something to root for. We’ll miss ya, Mr. Jones.
“Because something is happening here
February 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pmBut you don’t know what it is
Do you, Mister Jones?” - Bob Dylan
(Bedard + Silva) - (Weaver + Ramirez + Feierabend + Baek) = 6 wins, if you assume that no one gets hurt, everyone else on the roster plays at their ‘07 level, Wilkerson = Guillen, and losing Sherrill has no impact on the bullpen.
So that puts us at, what… 88 wins?
Welcome to last year.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:59 pm[ponies]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:02 pmDave,
February 8th, 2008 at 1:02 pmIs that really a fair way to evaluate the trade? By using wins to evaluate the upgrade aren’t you essentially throwing out last years overperformance of Pythagorean wins and saying we could do it again. In which case, this trade would make us a 94 win team assuming equal offense? That logic doesn’t seem right to me. Also about at what win level would you put the current roster?
I still think it’s a bad trade, but at this point I’m just glad it’s over. Now I can look forward to two out of five pitching matchups at least (please stay healthy, please stay healthy…) And I won’t have the frustration of looking at balls drop in the outfield knowing that Adam Jones is mouldering on the bench (or in Tacoma). I’ll still have the frustration of looking at balls drop in the outfield, of course. But I’m already used to that.
I wonder if they’ll ever come clean on what the holdup was about. I posted this story in another thread, but:
How many days until “pitchers and catchers report”? Bedard has a long drive from Ontario to Arizona.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:03 pmWhile I’m disappointed in seeing AJ go, I’m excited to root for Felix and Bedard to have a showdown for strikeout king of the A.L. The departure of Santana for the senior circuit helps a lot in this department.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:03 pmThe M’s and O’s took two weeks to get this done. Shaq’s ass passed a physical in half a day. Whatever.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:05 pmCome on, if you wanna say something, say something intelligent.
For example, “getting the top lefty in the AL is good, but losing your starting RF, your top lefty reliever and three of your top four pitching prospects is a bigger loss. Focussing on only one end is half-assed.”
February 8th, 2008 at 1:08 pmI am willing to wait and watch good young players develop. I do not care about rent a players that come and go every 2-3 years. Seattle does not have a core group of position players that will put them in playoff contention for the next few years. They also do not seem to have a plan to develop one. Their big strength has been their bullpen and that has now been decimated by trading Soriano last year and now Sherrill. You still need a bridge between the starters and Putz. The Angels will have even an easier time this year dominating the division and then Oakland will be restocked and making their bid if and when the Angels fade. If Bavasi is not willing to keep the minor league gems he signs then what is the point of keeping Bavasi?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:11 pmEnough with the holier than thou attitude. USSM is a great site, but believing the average reader to be superior in baseball knowledge than the average Mariner fan is BS.
I started off being slightly nervous of this deal, but certainly not near as much as the majority here. As time went on though- and I gathered as much information as I possibly could via blogs, articles & the radio- well my anxiety diminished. But today, after hearing the deal was made an hour ago, I actually pumped my fist and got excited about it. Bring it on baby! I can’t wait for spring training.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:11 pmI think that’s a fair observation. I thought the usual way to compete was to grow them yourself and add key free agents LATER, like the Atlanta Braves. What is our core here of home grown talent?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:13 pmThe ponies agree, and as you can see, they are unhappy.
I cannot promise that they will not eat any further comments that have nothing more to contribute than “haha u ussm whinerz!”
You know how ponies can get.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:14 pm[ponies]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:14 pmBeing in the middle of your season probably creates a heightened sense of urgency.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:14 pmWhat’s done is done… judging by how he was treated last year it doesn’t take a genius to see that the FO didn’t value Jones the way we do. Sorry to see him go and I wish him all the luck in the world.
With that said will we start having “Happy Bedard Days”?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pmWhat I find interesting about this deal is that, for once, the statistics aren’t really the subject of the debate. We all agree what Bedard could do (assuming he stays healthy). We all (more or less) agree what Jones will do, three years from now.
Where the numbers fail us is the debate on whether it’s worth it. The Mariners currently have 25-1 odds of winning the World Series. If trading Jones and crew made those odds 2-1, we’d all do it in a heartbeat. If it made them 24-1, I doubt anyone would. So where’s the cutoff?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pmReally? You can demonstrate that?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pmWhat’s done is done… judging by how he was treated last year it didn’t take a genius to see that the FO didn’t value Jones the way we did. Sorry to see him go and I wish him all the luck in the world.
With that said will we start having “Happy Bedard Days”?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:16 pmIn those 32 games won by our back end starters last year, I wonder how many of them required 4+ innings of work from our pen. This deal isn’t just about bolstering the starting rotation. It will help a bullpen that got worn out last year from lack of quality starts.
I understand people’s dislike of the trade and it sucks not getting the oppurtunity to watch AJ progress, but I still think it’s a good deal. I also realize that since I like the trade [moderators hate metacommentary. Stop it.]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:17 pmSo how long until the M’s FO says, ‘Gee…we sure need to upgrade our offense.’
February 8th, 2008 at 1:17 pmUSSM is a great site, but believing the average reader to be superior in baseball knowledge than the average Mariner fan is BS.
The average Mariner fan thinks Raul Ibanez is a great fielder and the M’s should execute more sacrifice bunts.
More recently, the average Mariner fan thinks the M’s just got one of the two best pitchers in the AL for a handful of prospects.
So, yeah.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:17 pmWell, on the plus side bullpen help is the easiest place to find cheap talent — and Bavasi has even shown some ability in that regard. Whether that’s a real ability, a blind squirrel and nuts, or an indication of just how easy it is (especially when you have no choice because all your budget is tied up in overpaid starters and bats) I have no idea. I just hope it continues.
Shaq’s ass passed a physical in half a day.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pmBut how long did it take for the rest of him? (A quarter of a day per cheek sounds about right)
[you still haven't located your shift keys?]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pmI am looking forward to the Jeff Clement for Coco Crisp or Gary Matthew Jr. trade.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm2008 Seattle Mariners: Come Drink Our 1-2 Punch!
February 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pmPersonally, I’m happy for Adam Jones, because it always seemed clear to me that the organization never really had much respect for him.
In Baltimore, he’ll get to play everyday, and hopefully get to have the great career we’d all hoped he’d have in a Mariners uniform.
Mr. Bedard, welcome, and please don’t take the fact that we don’t like this trade as a slight against you; we still think you’re awesome, and will root for you every time you take the hill.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pmOk now that is done. I believe he will be a Mariner for at least 3 more years (plus the two. I understand that doesn’t change the insane price paid now, but hopefully the horrible decision will be a bit mitigated.
Doesn’t really help. On the other hand AJones may have better chance to flourish. Oh crap impossible to feel better about trade. So much to give in return. Just can’t comprehend what Front Office knows that makes this reasonable. Help Please.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pmIMO the deal’s only good from the Ms perspective if they can confirm an extension with Bedard. Two years of Bedard for what the Ms gave up isn’t enough. Their corner outfield defense still stinks, and the offense is also heavily reliant on Vidro and Sexson not brutally sucking.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pm[learn to capitalise]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pmThis trade doesn’t help this year, but I still think an offensive makeover for this team before ‘09 could lift us over the top in the AL West at least.
It sucks to see Adam Jones go and I don’t necessarily agree with the trade because of the young talent we are giving up; but at least we get an ace pitcher in his prime back for him instead of Heathcliff Slocumb and at least we get him for probably 5 years unlike when Montreal traded the farm to Cleveland for 4 months of Bartolo Colon. And plus, if you were going to trade Adam, an elite player like Bedard (should he stay healthy) is the kind of guy you get to give up an Adam Jones for.
I have a feeling know though where we are at is that last year we had 88 wins by semi-fluke, now we are close to being a legitimate 85-88 win team realistically with both Bedard and Silva in the rotation instead of Weaver and HoRam. Too bad that’s not nearly enough to beat the Angels in the West this year.
Also too if this team does improve or at least not fall below .500, we are assured of at least one more off-season of Bavasi because he managed to land a future Cy Young winner quite possibly and created that Todd Turner patented buzz around the Mariners (barf).
Not much we can do though but sing ourselves that Monty Python standard: “Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life.”
February 8th, 2008 at 1:20 pmboy, gone for an hour and obviously I missed some really good [ponies].
but Bedard is easily a 18-20 game winner. A guy on the radio says so.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:21 pmOne or way or the other…
The 2008 Seattle Mariners: hoisted by their own Bedard.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:22 pmAlso, guys, as you can see, the server is not too happy right now.
Please, be kind with the refreshing.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:22 pmThis is a good pount, but I don’t think the numbers fail us here. The numbers can help us project the odds, and these odds lie in a range of probabilities–and that’s all they ever do.
It’s that by the numbers I’ve seen, the projections fall much closer to the 24 or 23 to 1. The front office is acting like their projections run closer to 2 or 3 to 1—I want to know how they figure on that.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:22 pmEnough with the holier than thou attitude. USSM is a great site, but believing the average reader to be superior in baseball knowledge than the average Mariner fan is BS.
It’s pretty clearly true that the average reader here is superior in baseball knowledge to the average Mariners fan. The average Mariners fan goes to a handful of games each year watches a few on TV and has a rough idea if they team is doing great, so-so, or lousy. They can’t name the starting lineup, much less understand why the team is losing despite its great pitching or have any clue about good/bad defense. It’s not so much that we’re high and mighty here, it’s that the average baseball fan is generally clueless.
That said, in this writer’s opinion Dave and Derek are in the top 1% of Mariners fans in terms of (Mariners) baseball knowledge.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:23 pm#43 — I don’t think the deal’s value has anyting to do with an extension. The M’s are gambling the Bedard helps them these next two years, and that winning in ‘08 and/or ‘09 offsets the the haul of talent that they sent over to the O’s.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:23 pmGod bless those radio guys, I would never know what was going on if it wasn’t for them!
February 8th, 2008 at 1:24 pmI will not show any mercy whatsoever to posters who refuse to obey basic rules of grammar. You have been warned (several times, actually).
February 8th, 2008 at 1:24 pm[no]
February 8th, 2008 at 1:25 pmat least we get him for probably 5 years
That’s ludicrous. The Mariners have Bedard for two years. They’re not guaranteed his services beyond that nor can Erik decide to terminate his current contract.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:25 pmThe kids aren’t that painful to lose. I’d trade them and their clones for Bedard. It’s Jones and Sherrill that take the luster off of this deal. The Ms are better with Bedard. They just aren’t Bedard better.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:26 pmBest case? Bedard wins the Cy Young. We have a great season, win the West. Lose, again, in the ALCS. Bavasi gets the key to the city, hailed as a hero.
Fast forward two years………Bedard leaves via Free Agency. Jones is MVP in Baltimore. We finish last. Bavasi moves on to another team. We go back to square one (ie 2002) and start over again dreaming for another 2008 season.
What do we get as fans? Bavasi is gone, but we’re all still here. Thanks Bavasi for thinking short term and about your career at the sacrifice of the long term fans who love this team.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:28 pmso does this mean Ichiro is going to learn how to swear in French, too?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:29 pm#55: They won’t talk about an extension now, but this time next year, the Mariners would be stupid not to talk to him and I’d be willing to bet they’ll offer a boatload of money for him.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:30 pmLike that statement–they aren’t Bedard better. That’s something people aren’t realizing.
If we kept Jones, but gave up Sherrill and the kids, I’d be OK with it.
If we gave away Jones and had a prospect on a level in between him and Wlad, I’d be OK with it.
It’s giving up the present AND the future that bothers me. I don’t believe that Wilkerson can equal Jones’ production this year…and there are few options for next year. That’s the irritating thing about it…
February 8th, 2008 at 1:32 pm[Oh my god. Well], here is an example of your casual Mariner fan:
“Adam Jones has a primadonna attitude who doesn’t run the ball out, and doesn’t seem to care. They need to platoon Mike Morse, he’s a hustler who’ll get to the ball.”
February 8th, 2008 at 1:36 pm#60: “. . .and there are few options for next year.”
Jeff Clement? Bryan LaHair? Carlos Trinufel? Yung-Chi Chen? Wlad? Jeremy Reed? Mike Morse? We should have plenty of options next year to improve the team in-house, thank god. It just sucks that the best player out of all of them is in Baltimore right now.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:36 pmI expect ponies in my season ticket package.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:38 pm50
Main Entry: fan
Function: noun
Etymology: probably short for fanatic
Date: 1682
1 : an enthusiastic devotee (as of a sport or a performing art) usually as a spectator
2 : an ardent admirer or enthusiast (as of a celebrity or a pursuit)
Your comments about the average Mariners “fan” is not what I what I had in mind when I argued against the average USSM being superior. A fan knows his team’s lineup. Someone who identifies with the ditzy chick on that Mariners radio commercial is not a fan: “I’m a fairly new Mariners fan, still learning names… terminoligy… How about that Feliz Hernandez, huh?”
So back to what I was saying earlier, perhaps I should’ve called it PS (Pony Sh*t), rather than BS.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:38 pmWhy do people find HTML so hard?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:41 pmWe should have plenty of options next year to improve the team in-house, thank god.
Um, none of them realistically can be expected to match Guillen’s performance, which I would argue that Jones could do. Wlad might have a SHOT at it by midyear (Clement’s problem is he’s a 1B or DH, realistically, though he might match him offensively), but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage money on it.
An OF of Wilkerson/Ichiro/Ibanez isn’t really pumping me up, either.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:41 pmClement, yes. Wlad, maybe. But I think you’re wildly overestimating the talent level and readiness of the others. Also, those are position player, not pitchers; you want a mix of both coming up. And you DO want multiple prospects to remain flexible–right now, I’m pretty sure we won’t be using our farm system for trade fodder for a couple years.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:41 pm#66: I’m talking about ‘09.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:42 pmI’ve resigned myself to the idea that the Mariners pretty much had to take this chance when it came along. I just would have prefered that it wasn’t so costly. It seems to be universally agreed that the package they sent is far superior than what Santana fetched.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:42 pmBut the sense I have is that M’s fans have seen no reason to expect an improved team up until now. Losing Guillen hurt and Silva didn’t generate any excitement. Let’s face it. The Mariners are one of only 10 teams out of the 30 that have not been to the playoffs since 2001. And the new stadium effect has pretty much worn off. So they are at risk of losing fans in droves if their record doesn’t improve from year to year. And, of course, Bavasi’s and McLaren’s jobs depend on it. It’s pretty hard to dismiss them when the record, whether a good indicator or not, improves but very easy if it does not.
It’s important to think about the future but in many ways the future has to be now for the M’s. When the Athletics have their new stadium, Billy Beane will be even harder to compete with. And as the Twins and other teams get stadiums, the M’s will slide farther and farther back in terms of economic competitiveness. If they don’t make the playoffs now, I don’t think their odds will be any better in the future even if they retained the players they sent to Baltimore. And if they collapse in a few years, like in 2004, well that is the fate of mid-market teams.
#67: I mentioned the position players just because that’s the part of this team that will have to be made over next.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:43 pmthank you for the edit.
that call was followed by:
February 8th, 2008 at 1:44 pm“we can get a hundred wins with this team”
Then you’re being just as holier-than-thou.
Snicker.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:45 pmThis hurts on so many levels…we will probably lose both Baek and Dickey now, unless they are both on the 25 man after ST…I believe Baek is out of options and Dickey is a rule 5… They’ve already said that Morrow won’t go back to Tacoma, so his career is a starter is now pretty much done…Horacio got a new contract, so he’ll be in the pen for sure…and they’ve already commited to a 7 man pen…
Horacio
Green
Morrow
Eric O
Lowe?????
Rhodes/Reitsma/Dickey/Baek
Putz
And let’s not start on the offense and defense…balls dropping all over the outfield…Sexson hacking, Wilks breaking, Vidro being TUUUUUURBOrific…
The ONLY thing improved is the rotation…(and if you say “Pitching wins championships” you need to be put down) every other aspect of the team and the future, has taken a HUGE step back…
Get ready for a LOOOOONG season…
February 8th, 2008 at 1:47 pm#7
How about Kevin Brown to the Padres before the 1998 season for their #1 prospect, Derek Lee? The Padres improved like twenty games and went to the World Series. I don’t know what else the Pads did that off-season to improve that dramatically, but it seems like them acquiring an ace pitcher may have been part of that jump.
Maybe? I’m just trying to be optimistic here.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:47 pmThe ONLY thing improved is the rotation…
The defense has too, due to a combination of regression and losing Guillen.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:49 pmBedard on SI.com
“”It seems like a great situation for me,” Bedard told SI.com. “They’re a winning team and they’re not in a rebuilding stage. King Felix and I should be able to do some things at the top of the rotation.”
Bedard expressed to SI.com a fondness for the Emerald City. “I love the city, other than it raining a little too much,” he said. “I can’t wait to see what it’s all about. If I could have picked where I’d be traded, [Seattle] would have been one of my top choices.”
Can’t wait for the season to start!
February 8th, 2008 at 1:50 pm65 - because I lack your intelegence.
So what’s the secret? One of the mods must have lended me a hand, correcting my HTML blunder.
Snicker
February 8th, 2008 at 1:52 pmRuminations @ 69 - You don’t think their chances would be better in the future if they kept these players? Is there a good reason to think promising young players, especially Jones wouldn’t help the team in the future? Heck Bedard said he was testing free agency in 2 years no matter what, who’s to say we couldn’t land him then while Jones is hitting his stride and some of the young arms are ready for the bigs.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:52 pmThat mod would be me. Incidentally, it’s ‘lent’.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pmA little perspective for those who don’t limit themselves to USSM. According to Bill James here are the top three candidates to pitch a no-hitter:
1. Scott Kazmir, 24%
2. Erik Bedard, 23%
3. Jake Peavy, 20%
The Padres are going to be at Safeco on May 16, 17, 18 so there is a possibility of a Bedard v. Peavy pitching match up. Cry babies need not get in line for tickets.
Here is Joe Posnanski’s take on Eric Bedard from his February 6, 2008 posting:
Erik Bedard. My favorite Erik Bedard story so far was hearing Brian Bannister talk about facing him in spring training. Banny — what a guy. He takes a lot of pride in his hitting, and he said he was facing Bedard and the guy was throwing serious gas. Banny says that what makes Bedard’s gas so much more effective than most is that he hides the ball really well so that when you’re swinging, it’s ON YOU before you even know what happened.
Anyway, Banny’s telling the story and he says (I’m paraphrasing), “So Bedard throws me a pitch, and I’m right on it. I mean I’m right on it. And I hit a hard line drive — I’m right on it, this is the best I can do — and it goes foul over the first -base dugout. And then I’m like, ‘Uh, OK, I don’t think I’m hitting this guy.”
February 8th, 2008 at 1:55 pmThe defense is worse because Ibanez will only get older and worse and the loss of Guillen should have been filled by the HUGE upgrade with Jones…Wilks is probably a push with Guillen…better range, worse arm…so in whole, the defense is worse…
February 8th, 2008 at 1:55 pmThe defense is worse because Ibanez will only get older and worse and the loss of Guillen should have been filled by the HUGE upgrade with Jones…Wilks is probably a push with Guillen…better range, worse arm…so in whole, the defense is worse…
No.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:56 pmI was at dinner with my season ticket holding family last night and they had the following to say about the trade:
1. How many guys have we heard about being the next A-rod or Griffey that didn’t pan out. We need to win now not wait for someone who will never develop.
2. Outfielders are a dime a dozen, Ace pitchers are impossible to find.
This is a window into the mind of the casual fan. They think Jones is just hype who will probably never be good, and that we can easily find outfielders so this trade is awesome.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:58 pmA little perspective for those who don’t limit themselves to USSM.
Oh please. Do you honestly believe that the USS Mariner authors think Bedard isn’t one of the best pitchers on the planet?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:58 pmDave,
Just a quick question. Wouldn’t we get more than a mere +6 from Bedard and Silva over last year’s scrubs since the addition of Bedard will effectively move Washburn and Batista down in the rotation which means they will be going against weaker pitchers than they were last year? Now, of course this means Batista will have to replicate last year’s performance, which is somewhat doubtful.
Also, in a lot of those HoRam and Weaver losses we were being blown out early and went to our bullpen in early innings, both Bedard and Silva seem to be able to at least put in solid innings, which may not translate into Ws per se, helps the team tremendously down the stretch.
Believe me, I am no fan of this trade. We gave up FAR more talent for Bedard than the Mets gave up for a better, more reliable ace, but I won’t lie: I’m excited for this off season and season. If we could somehow get an actual DH and if Wlad can put up decent numbers I think we’ll be very competitive in the division. Several years down the line… well that’s a different story.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:59 pmThe USS Mariner authors have said numerous times that they think Bedard is one of the best pitchers on the planet, but he doesn’t make the Mariners a contender and he cost way too much. The end.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:59 pmNo, that’s an improvement. I think range is 80-80% of outfield defense.(Though, to be sure, it matters how much worse or better a player is….)
February 8th, 2008 at 2:00 pm82- Ichiro is the same…Gullien and Wilks are a push…Ibanez will be worse than last year…Jones should be in right…so trading him away hurt the already terrible defense…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:00 pm83 - Ouch. I’m listening to Dibble and Kennedy on XM and there are all kinds of callers phoning in about the trade.
The consensus is that Jones wasn’t ‘really’ the center piece to the deal it was GS52. Not to mention both Dibble and Kennedy are on the bash Jones - lift up GS52 bandwagon.
I could keep going, but it’s getting painful to listen too. It might need to take a nap….
February 8th, 2008 at 2:01 pmHere’s my mindset:
Since Jones still has a few years of development before he reaches the, “I can’t believe we traded him!” stage of his career, and since the minor leaguers are still a few years away, this is the honeymoon phase.
I won’t miss a single Bedard start this year - if I can help it - and I’m going to enjoy the heck out of him. We can’t change what’s done, and catchers and pitchers report soon, so I’m going to drink the kool-aid and start proclaiming the 2008 Mariners as division champs! WHOOO!!!
Let’s take a ride on that pink pony! (sexual euphemism, much?)
February 8th, 2008 at 2:02 pmthank you, Graham.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:02 pm82- Ichiro is the same…Gullien and Wilks are a push…Ibanez will be worse than last year…Jones should be in right…so trading him away hurt the already terrible defense…
Of course losing Jones hurts the defense. You’re a) just forgetting to regress things and b) not realising how awful Guillen was.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:02 pmI’d like to know where the M’s are with their payroll now. Do they have anything left in their reserves to make any additional moves?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:03 pm79- what can I say, I received the majority of my elementary education in Arkansas…. and I ain’t ever recovered.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pm#88– doesn’t Dibble has a tattoo on his ass illustrating just how wrong he was in predicting Ichiro’s major league career?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pmDammit. It’s even worse than I thought. Talk about giving away EVERYBODY. Way to go, Bill. Ass.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pm78. I meant that their chance of making the playoffs in 3 or 4 years if they kept those players will not be better than it is this season, not then. As they slide further into have-not purgatory they will not be able to surround Adam Jones and others with enough good players. And they certainly don’t have the farm system yet to provide the low-cost productivity that they will need. Once the Athletics rebound, they will have every advantage in management and finances so they can pretty well forget about it for another 7 or 10 years.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pmso in whole, the defense is worse…
A healthy Wilk is an improvement over Guillen, one of the worst defensive RF in baseball. Ibanez should continue to suck. Betancourt, if he can eliminate silly mistakes, will improve. A full season of Sexson at first means a full season of his awfulness. All in all, the M’s will probably be slightly better on defense.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:06 pmYeah, average fans don’t care about wins over replacement level or any of that. They care about having a big name ace. That has to factor into it somewhere. Bavasi isn’t only trying to build a winner, he’s trying to please the fans.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:06 pmAll we need now is Bonds.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:07 pmWouldn’t we get more than a mere +6 from Bedard and Silva over last year’s scrubs since the addition of Bedard will effectively move Washburn and Batista down in the rotation which means they will be going against weaker pitchers than they were last year?
This turns out to not help, as counter-intuitive as that sounds. Research onto matchups shows that this kind of thing — whether a team’s #1 goes up against a #2-whatever doesn’t effectively matter, both because of the messy way teams lineup during the season and because the difference in your chances is not that great.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:07 pmmsb - there is that. Now Kennedy I can tolerate, but sometimes I want to throw things at my radio when Dibble opens his trap.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:08 pmXM channel 175 (MLB Homeplate) is awesome, except from noon-3pm pacific standard time. Dibble and Kennedy are awful. Earlier, Chuck Wilson was on with Thiel, and they had a good discussion about the trade. Wilson has many of the doubts that many of us here do.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:08 pmWell, I’ll give the Mariners one thing.
That is one hell of a Photoshop job to have Bedard in full uniform. You’d think they had him suit up during his physical and throw a few balls.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:08 pmThat analysis doesn’t mean the trade sucked. It means signing Silva sucked. You can’t include Silva when soley talking about a trade. So how about saying that the Silva signing was terrible, and the Bedard trade was just unnecessary.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:09 pmBavasi isn’t only trying to build a winner, he’s trying to please the fans.
Building a winner WOULD please the fans. If I thought he was building a winner, I would be overjoyed. Instead, he is sacrificing any hope for the future in a futile attempt to catch the Angels now. The team (even with Bedard) is not good enough, barring career years from everyone and some bad luck/injuries for the Angels.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:12 pmJay R., you’re not an average fan. You’re reading blogs and thinking about the team in depth. That’s what makes you not average. The average fan is much more casual.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:16 pmHow can you say the defense is BETTER after the trade?
Ichiro
Ibanez
Jones
is MUCH better than
Ichiro
Ibanez
Wilkerson
I’m just not seeing the logic that trading Jones IMPROVES the defense…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:17 pmMeet the new logo of my Roto Team:
http://i49.photobucket.com/albums/f261/et_blankenship/Bavasi.jpg
February 8th, 2008 at 2:18 pmThe average fan (I heard this straight from my dad, the most average of fans) thinks Jones’ defense sucks because he dropped those two fly balls last year. They may be happy to see him go!
February 8th, 2008 at 2:19 pmLooking at W/L numbers a little differently…
The non 4/5 slots were 56-38 (.5957 winning percentage). So all else equal, if Bedard/Silva can achieve the same winning percentage as Felix/Washburn/Batista, that’s 97 wins.
See? The same statistics can have differing interpretations.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:19 pmDerek,
Since your using the six win hypothetical too, would you be interested in answering the question that I posed to Dave up above?
Is that really a fair way to evaluate the trade? By using wins to evaluate the upgrade aren’t you essentially throwing out last years overperformance of Pythagorean wins and saying we could do it again. In which case, this trade would make us a 94 win team assuming equal offense?
Also, I know you ran the simulations but what would your actual prediction be as far as wins goes for the M’s this year?
Thanks
February 8th, 2008 at 2:20 pmThe defense is better than last year.
The defense is worse than a hypothetical 2008 defense with Jones rather than Wilkerson.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:20 pmBaker is encouraging people to go to other blogs (I’d have to assume this one is a primary target) and continually state “that’s why they play the games.”
Now that he is basically telling people to troll us, can we officially all agree that he isn’t as great as we used to think?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:21 pmwhen asked by Drayer if they are done, Bill sez they might still do some ‘fine-tuning’, they are still talking names, and the roster is never realy set
February 8th, 2008 at 2:22 pm#109
You’re right, the defense is worse today than it was yesterday. But at least it’s likely to be better in 2008 (with or without Jones) than it was last year. Of course, it would be much better with Adam but whatever.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:22 pmBavasi is saying something smart! He said that we can always piece together a good bullpen from our farm system.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:22 pmOn a lighter note, Sexson and Willie-Boom-Boom endorse Bedard on the official site…two of our worst hitters struggled against him…imagine that…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:23 pmWow, I just read that on Baker’s blog.
Thanks for that, Geoff.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:23 pm” . . . that’s why they play the games.”
Sure. So we can reinforce the math.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:25 pmCarson is being overly melodramatic, methinks, but Baker’s most recent post states:
“As they say, that’s why they play the games. Feel free to keep repeating that line on this and other blogs, as some of you already have.”
February 8th, 2008 at 2:25 pm114- Who cares about last year. The point is that Bavasi had the chance to improve the team on every front this off-season, and instead, he improved the rotation ONLY and the rest of the parts are hurt by it…this trade is terrible…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:26 pmHas the press conference started? Is anyone watching it on Mariners.com?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:27 pm“Is Morrow being a starter going to be on the backburner for now?”
“Yes, yep, yeah”
*cries*
February 8th, 2008 at 2:28 pm#115
I think Baker’s usually good but he didn’t win any points trying to convince people Vidro wasn’t awful last year. Nor did he win any today with this:
As they say, that’s why they play the games. Feel free to keep repeating that line on this and other blogs, as some of you already have
February 8th, 2008 at 2:28 pmMorrow will never start for the Mariners…he’ll be a pen guy or traded…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:29 pmThis is how I look at it. I have NO control over what the M’s crazy ass front office decides to do. I didn’t want the trade to happen, I love Adam Jones - but on this very day Bedard is far, far more valuable then Jones, Jones is still a prospect. I think people are so upset they begin to not think about the fact that we now have quite possibly the best 1-2 punch in baseball. I mean, if we do get to the playoffs, thats daunting for any team, esp. if playing in Safeco. I think Sherrill will have the year any normal lefty bullpen guy has. Our Seattle Mariners are a better team today then they were yesterday. No one, not even Dave can tell you with certainty which prospects will do well or not. This reminds me of the Snelling love fest all over again.
The deal is done, we got a stud pitcher - and quite possibly lost out on some future talent. Thats baseball though. There’s a reason why all the agents are stat heads, some USSMariner readers could almost make an argument that Jones should get a 5/50 this year off speculation alone. There is a reason why 5for1’s happen - Ryan Anderson, Jose Cruz, Jesse Foppert and Doyle are a few. Success of prospects is a crap shoot. Some things don’t always come down to numbers.
I mean, my prediction that AJ will turn into the next Dwight Gooden, Strawberry or Columbian drug lord is 100% as right right now as the prediction that AJ is the next [Insert any 5 tool player here]. Downright ridiculous. I have heard him compared to Sizemore and Beltran!
For the whiny, argumentative folk who just throw more AAA AJ numbers at me - let me expose you to some argument forms. These are the only way to make an argument valid.
~Modus Pollens VALID- If P, then Q. (If Adam Jones hits .388, then his OPS will be higher then .388) or something ridiculous (If Adam Jones gets traded, then Safeco will crumble. The argument can be dumb as hell but at least its valid.
~Modus Tollens VALID - If NOT P, then NOT Q. (If AJ did not get traded, then he will not go to Baltimore) and a dumb *but still valid* (If AJ is not traded, he will not turn into a white guy) Dumb, but still valid.
The only way either of these are invalid is if either of them is based on false premises i.e. Since Adam Jones is white, he is a money makin player. Still MP, but false premise.
These are valid argument forms that can be found sometimes.
Here is mostly what I see (other then ridiculous pessimism, ridiculous optimism and some creative way to fit ponies into things)
~Denying the Antecedent INVALID!
If P, then Q.
Not P.
Therefore, not Q. i.e.
If the M’s are competitive in 5 years, then they have Jones…so
If the M’s do not have Jones in 5 years, then the team will not be competitive.
~Affirming the Consequent
If P, then Q.
Q.
Therefore, P. i.e. Bavasi has made some horrible trades, there has been a trade.
If Bavasi has made a trade, its going to be horrible.
Its just hilarious to read some posts and see the logic and premises people are placing their arguments on. Think before you type. I actually take the time to read almost all the comments, but it can get pretty ridiculous sometimes.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:30 pmRight. As far as I can make out, you’re saying Bavasi had a chance to improve the defense, but didn’t, but when we point out that the defense did indeed get better between 2007-08, you don’t care about last year.
Exactly what is your baseline for this hypothetical improvement, then?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:31 pmWell, I can only hope that that comment by Baker was meant to be flippant.
If he’s seriously encouraging people to DDOS this site, well, that’d make the ponies awful sad.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:31 pmHow about the fact that Bedard referenced “King Felix”?
<a href=”http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/08/bedard.traded/index.html?eref=mostpop
February 8th, 2008 at 2:32 pmDidn’t Dave threaten to send the Bees to anyone calling Jones “just a prospect”?
February 8th, 2008 at 2:32 pmIs it just me, or is Bavasi’s head shaped like the baddies in the movie Aliens.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:34 pmOh wow, this MLB.com TV guy is really pretty smart.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:34 pm129- Jones is a better defender than Guillen, Wilkerson, etc. He had the chance to start Jones and improve the defense. He didn’t. He made a bad trade. Our team will be worse because of it. Especially in the long run…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:36 pmbakomariner Says:
Didn’t Dave threaten to send the Bees to anyone calling Jones “just a prospect”?
I would assume he meant if it was part of a BEDARD RULZ JONES IN A PROSPECT. The idea on what a prospect is can very heavily. To me, you are a prospect until you are a proven player. Dave thinks different
February 8th, 2008 at 2:36 pmNo, they just prove you don’t understand statistics and probability.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:38 pm129- Jones is a better defender than Guillen, Wilkerson, etc. He had the chance to start Jones and improve the defense. He didn’t. He made a bad trade. Our team will be worse because of it. Especially in the long run…
Um. I’d love to see an argument that Sherrill + Jones > Bedard in 2008.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:38 pmGraham - Perhaps.
Though, considering the way casual fans tend to be puppets when reading what beat guys have to say, you’d know why it made my head hurt to think that we could be swarmed by “Geoff Lambs” attacking.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:39 pm**is
135*
February 8th, 2008 at 2:39 pmValid argument, but your pessimism is just as right as me saying Wilkerson will have a career year and bat in 150 runs. I would agree that there is a defensive downgrade, thats why its good Bedard is a strikeout pitcher. With Ichiro in CF in inhibiits the ability for other OF’s to make plays on the ball as well. Plus, how many full seasons has Jones seen in the MLB?
6 more wins? Sounds good to me. Six more wins would’ve put us in the post season last year.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:40 pmPlus, how many full seasons has Jones seen in the MLB?
Buzz buzz buzz.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:41 pmI wouldnt say inhibits, Ichiro just gets there so it allows you to have slower corner OF’s. I guess inhibits is right. Pointless post sorry
February 8th, 2008 at 2:41 pm#125– Bavasi did say that the final decision is up to Mel and Mac …
February 8th, 2008 at 2:41 pmIs there any place I can see the press conference? I was at a meeting and missed it.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:43 pmYou look at the numbers in the most absurd way. There are so many different ways to analyze how many more wins bedard and silva will produce. First of all if you BELIEVE that IF (i know its a big if) they are both healthy, and produce anything close to similar numbers they stay healthy that we will win only 6 more games, you are absolutely wrong.
Look at ERA’s last year
Weaver……. 6.20 (27 starts)
Ramirez……. 7.16 (20 starts)
Feieraband…. 8.03 (9 starts)
Silva……… 4.19 (33 starts)
Bedard…….. 3.16 (28 starts)
we are getting 5 more starts, and the quality will get us only 6 games? thats a load of crap. Ramirez only got some wins because our bats went crazy when he was on the mound. He got 6 wins off of starts that he had an ERA of more then 5.89. stop looking at the numbers as if you want the mariners to lose. longrun this is a bad trade, but we should be better this year for sure.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:43 pmOne thing, watch the games…every time you see a fly ball fall five feet from Ibanez or Wilks, remember that Jones would have gotten there…
And every time a lefty goes yard in the eighth off Morrow, remember that Sherrill isn’t in the pen anymore…
Bedard is GREAT and I wish we could have gotten him without getting the roster raped, but he won’t look as shiny and pretty when the worst outfield defense in baseball can’t cover and the pen blows their holds…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:44 pmThe bees are on vacation today, but the ponies would like to reiterate:
“We really like the taste of posts that involve the words ‘pessimism’, or ‘prospect’. We can’t guarantee we’ll restrain ourselves if your post tastes like either of those. Also, badly typed attempts at rehashing freshman-level logic courses make us particularly peckish.”
Please, help the ponies maintain a healthy diet.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:44 pmResponding to the original post:
Dave,
February 8th, 2008 at 2:44 pmYou can’t project Bedard and Silva as the 4th and 5th starters. If they are facing the 4th and 5th on other teams I would expect the M’s records in those games to be at least over 40 wins. In theory it seems that by putting Bedard at the top could enhance the success (not ability) of the rest of the rotation by decreasing their competition. This of course rests on the assumption that the order of the rotations will match up more often than not, something that can/should be empirically evaluated…
First of all, a1). I was really looking forward to watching Jones develop in the outfield next to Ichiro. But what’s done is done. The sad reality is that we are all but passengers on the good ship Mariner.
Things appear bleak in future years for the M’s, but I find myself growing optimistic for their chances in 2008 (and 2009). The FO is obviously in win-now mode, which is refreshing and tells me they aren’t done yet. If you compare the roster right now with “Dave’s Offseason Plan, v.2007″, you can make a case that they aren’t too far off from achieving many of the goals he espouses - and by my calculations they should still have money to spend either now or at the trading deadline to address the gaps.
In win-now mode, they cannot tolerate Sexsons’ inadequacies for very long if he doesn’t rebound. In win-now mode, they might be more likely to move Ibanez to DH and move Vidro to the bench. In win-now mode, I don’t expect to see Horacio Ramirez ever to take the mound again unless Mel has somehow truly fixed him. And in win-now mode, I expect to see WFB use sparingly. I expect 2008 to be fun to watch.
It’s been tough waiting for this slow-motion train wreck of a trade to conclude, but now I’ve already moved on and I’m ready for spring training.
Hey, we’re tied for first!
February 8th, 2008 at 2:47 pmTry not to project, dear.
Start with some of the sidebars, such as here. And then come back.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pmBedard….23-11.Silva 18-16….=51-27…I am not saying this is a best guess but it is certainly possible..Limiting to the range to 40 seems way low to me…
I think a lot of people’s point about the pythag situation of last year was that Weaver and Ho-Ram + Ryan Fri.. got blown out a lot. They (Weaver mainly ) had a couple of real gems so there win, loss record was not as bad as their effect on the M’s Phythag/run totals….Those three simply got murdered a couple of games leading to huge blowouts that made the pythag a poorer reflection of the team’s wins.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pm6 more wins? Sounds good to me. Six more wins would’ve put us in the post season last year.
Brilliant.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:49 pmBoy, would I love all of these things to be true. Here’s hoping you’re right.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:51 pmNot sure if you caught it or not, but someone did a Pythag taking out Weaver and HoRam, and the record didn’t change that much.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:51 pmYep, for all the talk about how terrible the back end of the Mariners rotation was last year (and in terms of individual performance, it was), the Mariners were a .470 club when their #4/#5 starters were on the hill.
So you’re saying Bedard and Silva won’t help that much because last season’s #4 and #5 starters had a not-bad winning percentage?
Fail.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:51 pm#153
Just answering the question.
The Ms were close to the postseason last year. Now we have massively upgraded the starting rotation. Sounds good to me.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:52 pmWhy would they give Ramirez a contract if they didn’t plan on him pitching? We have not heard the last of Gas-Can Ramirez…
February 8th, 2008 at 2:52 pm[grammar please]
February 8th, 2008 at 2:52 pmpress conference is on the M’s page.
Houyhnhnm.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:53 pmThe Ms were close to the postseason last year. Now we have massively upgraded the starting rotation. Sounds good to me.
Ignorance really is bliss.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:53 pmWhat he’s saying that they won’t help as much as you think.
At least try to grapple with the reasoning.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:54 pmF-Rod, you really think Bedard is goign to win 23 games? And then lose 11? So he’ll have 33 decisions? That seems like an awful lot to me.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:54 pm[you have now worn out your welcome]
February 8th, 2008 at 2:59 pmWell, I hope Ibanez and Sexson get through ST at least, able to stand upright and play ball. And I surely do hope the Mariners have better luck with Bedard than the Red Sox just found out they had re-signing Curt Schilling. Cross your fingers, guys, it’s going to be a bumpy ride! (paraphrasing Mae West)
February 8th, 2008 at 3:01 pmThe question is posed as the team’s record in games that Bedard (or his spot in the rotaion if he gets skipped a start) will win I think its entirely possible that the team could win 66% of his starts. Maybe Bedard goes 18-7 and has 9 no decisions and they go 5-4 in the games he doesn’t start..
Maybe Silva goes 12-11 and the team goes 6-5 in his no decisions.
Putting the cap at 40 is outrageous. Bedard could easily get to 18 games on his own.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:02 pmsigh
February 8th, 2008 at 3:03 pmAt least try to grapple with the reasoning.
I’m trying, but this concept of fluky run support keeps coming up.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:05 pmI don’t like this if it turns out to be just a two-year deal but if we can lock Bedard up in a long-term contract I can live with it. I don’t think that’s out of the question.
The back end of the rotation was a train wreck last year no matter what the M’s record was in those starts. I don’t know how we won as many games as we did trotting that sorry collection of rag arms out there. I feel a hell of a lot better about the rotation we’re going to start the season with this year.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:09 pmYou DO realize that Bedard will taking up some of the wins that the bullpen got last year in that slot? Are you saying those wins will now go to the bullpen backing up the other pitchers?
February 8th, 2008 at 3:10 pmCheer up for once…look at what the rest of the division did…
A’s traded away 10+ wins in Haren and Swisher
Angels lost 4 wins in Cabrera, added a 5-win Torii Hunter, not much change
Rangers didn’t make many moves of significane
If we gain 6 wins while the rest of the division loses or stays the same, I’d consider it a pretty good off-season
February 8th, 2008 at 3:10 pm