Opportunities for Improvement
Yesterday, we covered the win value of the entire roster, and came to the conclusion that this team is built to win about 82-83 games, if everything follows the projections. Well, we know that nothing ever follows the projections completely, and there is always room for variance in pretty much any statistical model. So, today, let’s look at a few of the potential opportunities the roster presents for improvement, and how those potential improvements might help push this team closer to the 90+ wins it needs to contend this year.
1. Felix grabs his crown
We have Felix projected for a 3.55 ERA in 190 innings. That’s good enough to make him a +4 win pitcher and an all-star, but I think we’d all agree that he has enough talent to make that look like a disappointing season. He’s flashed it many times before, including in his his first two starts before hitting the DL last spring. It is not hard to see him rolling off a Cy Young season where he establishes himself as an ace. If he tosses up a 2.84 ERA instead of the 3.55 I projected for him yesterday, that lops 15 runs off his total, and adds a win and a half to the pennant chase.
2. Jose Lopez finally fulfills his potential
It’s not always been evident the past two years, but Jose Lopez is a talented player. He has enough range to play a quality defensive second base while possessing enough power and contact ability to be an asset at the plate. His .252/.289/.355 performance from 2007 isn’t his true talent level, and at age 24, he still needs to be considered a player with significant potential.
The projections from yesterday had Lopez at a .305 wOBA, which translated to +1.26 wins above replacement. If we look at an optimistic projection for Lopez that is still within the realm of possibility given his skillset, it’d probably be something like .300/.340/.440. That’d be a modest improvement from his 2006 performance, but wouldn’t require a huge change in skills – he’d just have to translate some of his power into more more doubles and home runs.
If Lopez hits .300/.340/.440, that would give him something like a .348 wOBA, which translates to +2.8 wins for a second baseman. The .305 wOBA gave him +0.7 wins, so a breakout from Jose Lopez could be worth about two wins to the final tally.
3. Bedard and Felix both stay healthy, pitch 220 innings apiece.
The projections from yesterday had Bedard and Felix both at 190 innings, a realistic estimate given Bedard’s history of health problem’s and Felix’s age and career path so far. However, both pitchers are good enough to run up big innings totals if they stay healthy, and health is a very hard thing to predict. If each can rack up an additional 30 innings and we take those away from the replacement starters and the bullpen, the pitching staff would lop 12 runs off off their projected totals. That’s an extra win in the standings.
4. Jose Vidro becomes a bench player.
I won’t hold my breath for this one, but there’s room for improvement here, so I’ll list it anyway. Jose Vidro is currently projected for a .325 wOBA, and honestly, there’s almost no upside here. 2007 was the height of his production abilities given his total lack of power, and his overall line was propped up by a ridiculous total of infield hits. And, as a nice bonus, since Vidro’s occupying the DH spot, the Mariners are forced to send Raul Ibanez back out to left field to futilely chase down fly balls in the gaps. Having a DH who can’t hit force a guy who can’t field to play defense is just not how playoff teams are built.
However, if we move Vidro to the bench (where he’d actually make a solid pinch-hitter), opening up the DH spot for Ibanez, and pencil in even a +1 WAR left fielder into the mix (maybe that’s Wlad forcing his way onto the roster, maybe that’s the M’s making a trade, whatever), the team would be instantly upgrading their offense, defense, and bench with one move. New OF’s +1 win replaces Vidro’s +0.4 win, while Ibanez goes from being a +0.75 win left fielder to being a +1.4 win DH, as his defensive shortcomings wouldn’t be a factor anymore. And, as a bonus, Vidro’s bat replaces Norton’s on the bench, giving the team an additional +.1 upgrade.
All told, the we’re looking at about a 1.4 win upgrade by simply bringing in a below average left fielder (remember, league average is +2 wins) and moving Ibanez to DH with Vidro going to the bench. How hard would it be to find a +1 win left fielder? Call Corey Patterson. His .310 wOBA and above average defense make him exactly the kind of player we’re talking about, and he can’t get anyone to give him a job.
5. Adrian Beltre goes bananas, relives 2004.
This is the least likely of all the scenarios (and considering #4 is highly unlikely, we’ll call this a major longshot), but Adrian Beltre has a couple truckloads of talent. Just on raw physical ability, he’s in an elite class. As we’ve seen, though, his approach to hitting is akin to a high school hitters. The low and away slider is his kryptonite, and he has not learned to have enough patience to not get himself out way too often.
However, every year, we see him put it all together for stretches of time. He hit .306/.342/.577 in May and .314/.398/.598 in July. He just sandwiched a .190/.239/.302 June in between those two months. There is a great hitter hiding inside of Adrian Beltre, but because of his approach at the plate, we only get to see him in glimpses.
However, that .320/.380/.550 potential is still there, lurking in the shadows. Adrian Beltre is physically capable of being an MVP candidate if he could refine his approach at the plate. It’s not common, and it’s certainly not likely, but it happens from time to time. It’s possible – we’ll just put it that way.
So, what is it worth if Beltre hits .320/.380/.550? That translates to a .413 wOBA and makes him a +7 win player. Essentially, that kind of performance in Safeco Field, while also playing gold glove defense at third base, would win him the MVP award in most years. That’s a good season for A-Rod; like I said, this isn’t likely to happen. But if the stars align, and he adds +4 wins to his personal total… well, you never know.
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Sigh, even if all of those happen, we’re still looking low 90s. Will that be enough?
The M’s should go after Patterson. No one in his right mind can think the current LF-DH configuration would be better than Corey shagging fly balls and Ibanez taking swings five times a night.
I mentioned this in response to yesterday’s post as well, but could the M’s have built a team with *less* upside if they’d tried? Dave nails the few guys who have untapped talent… and that’s really it. I guess Wilkerson might hit .275/.350/.500. That would add a couple of wins as well.
All these scenarios do make sense.
I especially like the idea of Vidro becoming a pinch hitter. Granted, he will be a very expensive one, but he would give a better chance to get on base, than say, Greg Norton. It would especially come in handy during interleague play. I think the pro-Vidro people such as Geoff Baker wouldn’t approve of that move though.
Amen, amen, amen, amen to Patterson.
My dream scenario was to see Patterson signed as our everyday LF, and Kevin Mench signed to platoon at DH w/Raul and spell Wilkerson and Patterson.
Mench is gone now, but Patterson makes too much sense. And he did have a decent 2nd half last year which at least gives some hope for production at the plate.
Very helpful post Dave, thanks. This gives us things to look and hope for. Also, not sure if this was intended, but your order appears to rank these possibilities in descending order of their likelihood. If so, i agree with that order.
On another note, and perhaps this is better placed in the previous post (feel free to censor if necessary), have you done win projections for the other teams in the AL West? It seems using the same methods for all the teams would create and apples to apples situation and thus answer some of the opposition to an 82 win season. I know DMZ did an analysis with the sims, but yours uses some different methods.
I’ll hang up and take your answers off the air.
looking at all this — I think maybe I need an infusion of the unfettered, unbounded, and unbelievable optimism displayed of late by John McLaren.
What say consensus on the odds of both Bedard and Felix topping 220, or even 200, for that matter? I agree that we will have an entertaining and competitive team to watch this year, even if we have a snowball’s chance in hell of being competitive in October, but having Felix and Bedard at that level of health for the entire season seems like a huuuuge longshot to me.
We’ve been saying for God knows how long that getting Raul to DH and finding anyone capable of playing solid D in left is the Ms biggest need…
Think of the possibilities next year when Raul, Sexson, Vidro, Wilkerson, and Johjima are off the books…
Johjima is a huge asset – getting him “off the books” isn’t a good thing.
Thanks for a great post, Dave. Are you going to write it’s evil twin, Opportunities for Disaster?
As depressing as that post will/would be, I’d still like to see it to get the full picture.
Sorry for the “it’s,” by the way.
So, what is it worth if Beltre hits .320/.380/.550? That translates to a .413 wOBA and makes him a +7 win player. Essentially, that kind of performance in Safeco Field, while also playing gold glove defense at third base, would win him the MVP award in most years. That’s a good season for A-Rod; like I said, this isn’t likely to happen. But if the stars align, and he adds +4 wins to his personal total… well, you never know.
Hmmm. A woman in your life is a good thing. She’s clearly bringing out the optimist in you.
Johjima is a huge asset – getting him “off the books” isn’t a good thing.
I spent a fair amount of time thinking this over yesterday in a post on another blog. How much longer do you think he’ll be an asset? Knowing his contract is up after this season, how long would you keep him around — especially knowing Clement is nearing his matriculation in prospect-dom, and that a few other guys in the system could develop into decent backup catchers?
I’d love to sign Joh to a one-year deal if he has a 2008 like 2007…if he “falls off” like some “experts” have predicted, then it will be a good thing that his contract is up…he’s one of my favorite players, and underrated in my opinion, but I was just looking at all the offensive openings for 2009…
Can I get some clarification of Vidro’s contract status. I keep hearing from some sources that this is the last year, and I thought he was only signed by the Nats through this year. So why do I also hear that we owe him money next year?
I think there is an option for Turbo next year…and I think it kicks in with a number of at-bats…I hope I’m wrong…
It would be bad enough for have Vidro DH this year, but to have him do so and vest into an expensive contract next year….yikes!!! More the reason to use him sparingly as a DH and back-up 2B (and jettison Cairo).
This kind of post makes my eyes twinkle with hope.
Are we going to get a similar post detailing what might go horribly, horribly wrong?
interesting to see that Roger Hansen now says that Jeff is “going to be a starting catcher for 10 to 15 years and help win this team win two or three World Series,” Hansen said.”
I have a question about Vidro’s “ridiculous total of infield hits”. It seems Vidro is well above average as a player who will make contact. If a player is always hitting the ball, instead of striking out, isn’t he going to get more infield hits, regardless of how slow he is?
How are we determining that this is a fluke? He only struck out 57 times last year and walked 63. Usually, when a player walks more than he strikes out over an entire season, you have a very accomplished hitter.
I think there is a good chance for upside regarding Vidro in 2008: he finished the season very strong, with a post All Star .867 OPS. This includes a .418 OBP for the second half and an overall season .800 OPS in Safeco field.
…could the M’s have built a team with *less* upside if they’d tried?
That’s the thing about baseball there is always unexpected upside and downside. Nobody expected Weaver to be as terrible as he was, and nobody expected Sexson to go .205/.295/.399 and yet somehow the team won 88 games. It’s kind of hard to pin down where the upside was last year that allowed the M’s to win as many games as they did.
Dave and DMZ are doing great work in trying to hone our expectations, but I absolutly guarantee there is a lot of potential for upside on the roster, there always is. And there is just as much potential for unexpected downside.
Reading all the current articles on the official site, and the local papers, they have Clement starting in Tacoma, the team starting with a 12-man pen, and Morrow in the pen…sigh…”win-now” sucks when we probably won’t…at least they are smart enought to let Clement get work behind the plate in Tacoma…
How much do the mariners gain by platooning Ibanez and Wlad? Ibanez is obviously an excellent platoon candidate, is Wlad?
It’s kind of hard to pin down where the upside was last year that allowed the M’s to win as many games as they did.
Upside and luck are not the same thing.
If a player is always hitting the ball, instead of striking out, isn’t he going to get more infield hits, regardless of how slow he is?
More than a guy who strikes out all the time? Yes. But 15 for a guy with Vidro’s skillset is a huge fluke. 6-8 is far more likely.
This is the upside post. You gonna bring the major bummer sometime soon and tell us about all the things that can go wrong?
Johjima is a huge asset – getting him “off the books” isn’t a good thing.
Even given Johjima’s implausibly low walk-rate (15 BB in 513 PA), I have to agree. He’s a big asset to the team – a 20 VORP catcher is hard to find and makes him the 5th most valuable catch in the league (behind only big-time stars Posada, Varitek, Mauer, and Victor Martinez).
If, if’s and but’s were cherries and nuts we’d all have a pennant. Here’s hoping to blind optimisim.
Are we going to get a similar post detailing what might go horribly, horribly wrong?
I don’t think anybody wants to write, or read, an infinitely long post. I mean, where does it end? Player A/B/C… could get injured. Player A/B/C… could have a Sexsonesque season of suckiness. Somebody important could beat up his wife in a hotel room, or have a luggage incident, or an adventure with a barstool/ATV/truckwashing/haunch of vension or whatever, and be unavailable for most of the season. The manager could quit in the middle of the season and the team could not respond positively to it. The team could get sold to Huizenga or Loria or Naimoli and a firesale could commence. Safeco Field could disappear into the Seattle Fault. The spirits of Native Americans from that burial ground could do more than merely stopping the team from reaching the World Series and could actually cause people to stop watching games, causing a huge drop in payroll. Shoeless Joe Jackson could emerge from of an Iowa corn field and sign with the A’s.
Hmmm. A woman in your life is a good thing. She’s clearly bringing out the optimist in you.
I think it’s actually the ponies.
Outstanding post. Agree with every word.
Now, what about Sexson? How much would it help for him to get back to his career averages, or to replace him?
Of all of the things listed, I think the most likely thing to happen is for Lopez to raise his game. A lot of mention is made of his brother’s death last year, but if you think back, there was another family issue that came up in his All-Star first-half 06 season– He left the team for a couple of games for his girlfriend’s birth of their child. He wasn’t the same player when he came back, just like he wasn’t the same player after the death of his brother.
I don’t blame him at all– for a young guy, thousands of miles away from his family and home, these issues are harder to deal with than I think most people give credit.
At my work, several of my coworkers ended up having to move away from their families to take jobs and it has had a lot of impact on how they work. I know its not the same as playing professional baseball, but I am a professional in a highly skilled and competitive environment, and these people are extremely successful.
I think its safe to estimate the probability of having another off-field personal problem is low for Lopez and he should be able to concentrate on his game and improve greatly this year.
I don’t think anybody wants to write, or read, an infinitely long post. I mean, where does it end?
True, but there are 5 or 6 things that are most likely to go wrong.
[Sexson]
Is there any chance that Clement could force his way into the lineup by tearing it up in Tacoma? A guy with left-handed power hitting like mad in AAA would be tough to keep down. What impact could he have if they put him into the mix at C / DH / PH on regular basis — assuming also that he performs well defensively?
Dave, DMZ –
If and when we make community projections this year – can we make them using the same numbers analysis provided by Dave in yesterday’s post.
It would be interesting to see what the community’s 2008 Win Values would show…
Outstanding post. Agree with every word.
Even the benching Vidro part? Could it be true that you’ve actually come around to acknowledging that he’s a problem?
Now, what about Sexson? How much would it help for him to get back to his career averages, or to replace him?
Sexson’s 2005 offensive performance (.263/.369/.541) was good for a .384 wOBA, which translates to 3.74 offensive wins for a first baseman. The .335 wOBA I projected for him gave him 1.32 offensive wins, so the difference would be about 2.5 wins if he returned to 2005 form.
2005, however, was the best year of his career, and even the most optimistic projection for a 33 year old isn’t going to project a repeat of the best 550 AB stretch of a player’s 4650 AB career. So, in reality, an optimistic but plausible projection probably has Sexson at a .360 wOBA.
The jump from .335 to .360 would be worth about 1.2 wins.
If and when we make community projections this year – can we make them using the same numbers analysis provided by Dave in yesterday’s post.
The community projections will again ask for inputs of raw numbers (at-bats, doubles, walks, etc…), but I’ll setup the Win Value formulas in the spreadsheet so people can see what they’re projecting as they fill it out. We’re also going to make it possible for us to take the community projections, stick them into the Diamond Mind event tables, and run a bunch of simulations with the Community Projections for the M’s vs the ZIPS projections for everyone else.
So, we should be able to see exactly what the community thinks the team will do in terms of win values and team performance.
Dave, while bringing in Patterson would be better, would it still be some improvement to just install Jeremy Reed in left, move Ibanez to DH, and bench Vidro? Of course they’re not going to do it, but.
I’ve always assumed that the guys who go for that low outside pitch just can’t pick up the pitch quickly enough to stop. It killed Jim Presley’s career, and it’s hard for me to believe he never noticed it was happening. Is it likely that Beltre’s hot streaks are as much a result of him guessing right more often and the opposing pitchers being less precise?
It’s a shame you hate puppies and unicorns, Dave. Just a shame.
Here’s the real shame, though – some people share your thoughts about the amount of upside you describe in the post and build rosters expecting things like this WILL happen. This kind of upside analysis should be icing on the cake for a well-built team rather than the only way it manages to do well. In other words, building a roster that requires so many things to go right in order to compete is not a good way to shape a team (and if they all do go right, that doesn’t change the bad approach).
It’s also poor analysis to say that, because these items are possibilities, the team has a real shot at doing something great this year. It’s a list of things that, if a team were really in “win now” mode, the decision-makers would not hang their hats on (well except maybe the Vidro thing – that should have happened last year). Further, those that cover the team should not cite these potential improvements as evidence that the team is in fact better than others claim.
The community projections will again ask for inputs of raw numbers (at-bats, doubles, walks, etc…), but I’ll setup the Win Value formulas in the spreadsheet so people can see what they’re projecting as they fill it out. We’re also going to make it possible for us to take the community projections, stick them into the Diamond Mind event tables, and run a bunch of simulations with the Community Projections for the M’s vs the ZIPS projections for everyone else.
Excellent. Can’t wait.
Isn’t Kenny Lofton still available as well? Seems like his normal OBP might make him a better one year stopgap than Patterson, though Patterson would be fine with me as well. Come to think of it, just about anything that would keep us from watching Raul flounder in left for another year would be okay with me.
This is an interesting transition that USSM is helping me through–that from being the “hopeful fan” who wants “his guys” to “catch fire” into the type of analytical fan who knows that there are some statistics that lie less than others and those stats lead to undeniable truths about the capabilities of our team resources.
Still…despite the claims of some that USSM (and by USSM, I mean both the official posters and those who regularly add their comments) is filled with nothing but doom-sayers and unrepentant stat fiends, there are still some elements of “fandom” in place here.
To whit: King Felix. He’s shown flashes of absolute brilliance. I know, I’ve been there to witness some of these flashes. But, somewhat like his idol (one F.Garcia)…there’s been no proof that he can actually perform at that brilliant level for an entire season, much less an entire career.
Isn’t expecting him to “put it all together” and live up to that potential is as speculative and hopeful as the thoughts of those fans who think that Willie Boom-Boom would shine “if he only got the chance…just like Ibanez did.”?
Is this a case of looking at Felix through throwback-teal colored glasses?
Something to consider: If the M’s entertained offers for Felix in trade–would we get a blockbuster trade result out of it…or would be shocked at how little we got in return?
(Of course, that question begs the question of whether or not our front office could actually maximize any player’s value for our favor…something I can’t say that there’s much evidence to support.)
Don’t get me wrong–I love Felix I love it when I get to the ballpark and he’s the guy we’re putting out there because I know we’ve got our best chance to win. But could that just be because I’m a fan?
pg
PS–And does anyone think he might pull a Garcia-like pout about being the “#2 pitcher” since they’ve announced Bedard as the starting day starter?
There are a bunch of options for left field in the FA market or in-house; I would love to see Reed and WLAD platoon, but the point is that they won’t bench Vidro in order to get Raul to DH because they are happy with Vidro as a starter…ridiculous…
True, but there are 5 or 6 things that are most likely to go wrong.
If you really want to dwell on it, just take the top 5 or 6 guys by WAR from yesterday’s post and imagine Rick Griffen giving lots of interviews about them.
For my part, I’ll opt out of that. The team is built to need lots of luck, and it’s rather too late for anyone to change that (though it’s sad that of the four best bits of luck the team could have, three are players playing up to potential and one is management managing up to potential). So I’m going to root for good luck! I mean, we’re talking poinies worth of luck here, not unicorns. Sometimes you do get a pony, but unicorns are like clutch hitters – imaginary things only fools hope for.
Is there any chance that Clement could force his way into the lineup by tearing it up in Tacoma? A guy with left-handed power hitting like mad in AAA would be tough to keep down.
But what would they do with him if they called him up? A repeat of Jones last year would be idiotic. Another left-handed power bat in Safeco would be great. If he’s tearing it up and Sexson falls off the face of the Earth, and they’re in a pennant race, calling him up to be an everyday 1B would be kinda okay (I’m assuming he’d be at least equal to Sexson with the glove). Not sure how that would work out compared to shifting Vidro or Ibanez to 1B and putting a better defender in LF though.
If a +1 win LF will give us an additional 1.4 wins, Jeremy Reed in LF and Ibanez at DH will give us +.3 wins, right?
I read this morning that Mac stated that Clement would only be on the big squad if he were playing everyday because they don’t want to slow his development…yes, those wise words came from Mac…I was just as shocked as the next guy…
The only way I can imagine Vidro getting bench is if he completely tanked for at least two months. I’m talking .250/.310/.320 kind of line and I can’t imagine him sucking that much.
Okay, I can understand the concept of infield hits being abberent for Vidro in 2007, therefore a drop-off is likely. But I’m not aware of where one goes to find that particular number for a players career, so I have no sense of what is normal or plausible.
But, a related area of concer was Vidro’s BABIP in 2007: .337
That’s a high number. But, how high is it for Vidro?
His career BABIP is .316. But, Vidro isn’t the same hitter today he was from 1999-2003 is the kneejerk response.
True. But, the *ONLY* obvious skew in his personal stats is the loss of power. His BB and K rates have been relatively steady with modest signs of actual improvement.
But, here’s the thing. As players age, they often change their APPROACH. What is he TRYING to do at the plate? If he’s not TRYING to hit for power, then based on my observations, his BABIP *should* go up. The guys who typically have lower BABIPs are pull-hitters – the slugger types who it’s easy to position for – who either hit it out of hit it into the shift. Yes, speed certainly helps with BABIP, (for those infield hits), but so does ’surprise’. The inability to optimize defensive positioning helps the ’spray’ hitter.
So, let’s look at Vidro’s career – what kind of BABIP numbers has he posted?
‘99 – .324
‘00 – .339
‘01 – .330 – injured (124 games)
‘02 – .330
‘03 – .318
‘04 – .300 – injured (110 games)
‘05 – .283 – injured (87 games)
‘06 – .308 – injured (126 games)
‘07 – .337
The guys history says that in years he has stayed healthy, he has CONSISTENTLY managed solid to impressive BABIP numbers. This was back when he did have some power.
But, 2007 was *NOT* a once-in-a-career performance by Vidro in regards to his in-play results.
Additionally, a tell that not everything went Vidro’s way in 2007 – he ALSO set a personal worst for GIDPs (21), when his typical result was closer to 16. My instinct is that working with Ichiro on a daily basis (and batting behind him), led to an increased approach to slap the ball around with purpose.
While I understand he’s a different hitter today than 5 years ago. He appears to still have MOST of the skill-set that he had then. Maybe 2007 was a banner year. But from my perspective, mostly it looks like 2007 was a good indication of where Vidro is today WHEN HEALTHY. The move to DH is likely the bonus feature here – allowing him to avoid any fielding-related injuries that would negatively impact his offense.
The 109 OPS+ was his highest in the past four seasons, (beating his 2004 total by two points). But it’s also his first completely healthy season since 2003. In truth, now that he’s familiar with the AL pitchers, I could see room for restrained optimism that he could improve slightly, (minor return of power, perhaps).
I’d agree that there’s more room for fear than optimism with Vidro. But I think it’s a tad pessimistic to dismiss what (for Vidro) was a modest year as being a major fluke.
46- Vidro is terrible…worst DH in the league…he was 9th on the team in RBIs last year…NINTH!
So to sum up:
The chances that the Mariners have of contenting will improve IF:
1. One of their pitchers has a really good year.
2. One of the team’s hitters gets a lot better.
3. Their good players don’t get hurt.
4. They don’t play players who aren’t very good.
5. Another one of the teams hitters gets a lot better.
Frankly, I’m a little taken back by this kind of audaciousness. Next thing you know we’ll be hearing that a Richie Sexson bounce-back would improve the chances. Or maybe that good defense can make the team better!
Here are some other things to think about:
1. Ichiro hits .190 – Good or bad for the team?
2. Carlos Silva gives up 50 HRs – help us or hurt us?
3. How about we score more than we give up. That’s good, right?
#46
Well, that looks to have prima facie plausibility. But does that hold for other hitters? What are his other comparisons and how have they fared with age?
But I’m not aware of where one goes to find that particular number for a players career, so I have no sense of what is normal or plausible.
Fangraphs.com
That’s a high number. But, how high is it for Vidro?
Actually, his BABIP was .342 last year, the second highest of his career (.343, in 2000). His career BABIP is .320, and that includes the years when he could actually hit for power and run. His BABIPs in ‘04, ‘05, and ‘06 were .301, .287, and .311.
If he’s not TRYING to hit for power, then based on my observations, his BABIP *should* go up.
Not really, no.
The guys who typically have lower BABIPs are pull-hitters – the slugger types who it’s easy to position for – who either hit it out of hit it into the shift.
There’s no evidence that pull/spray hitters have any effect on BABIP. Sluggers post lower BABIPs because a lot of their well hit balls go out of the park (and thus aren’t included in the “in play” denominator), plus they’re just really slow.
But, 2007 was *NOT* a once-in-a-career performance by Vidro in regards to his in-play results.
Comparing 2000 Jose Vidro to 2007 Jose Vidro is a waste of time. Totally different player.
Additionally, a tell that not everything went Vidro’s way in 2007 – he ALSO set a personal worst for GIDPs (21), when his typical result was closer to 16. My instinct is that working with Ichiro on a daily basis (and batting behind him), led to an increased approach to slap the ball around with purpose.
Or, more logically, he got slower. That happens with age.
He appears to still have MOST of the skill-set that he had then.
If I cut off your head, you will still have most of your body left. And you will be dead. Power is the most important skill a hitter can possess. Take power away from a guy who also can’t run and you’re left with a bad player.
The 109 OPS+ was his highest in the past four seasons…
And here’s why your analysis is wrong – everything you’ve said in the entire comment deals with correlation of past results to future projections. You are, essentially, stating that that his historical outcomes should be our baseline for what he’s going to do going forward. By using results, you are including both his past skills (relevant information) and the influences of others (not relevant information) to try to determine his true talent level.
This is empirically a bad way to begin a projection. By using results instead of skills, you’re eliminating a good amount of the knowledge we have about a player and inherently building a worse projection than one that uses skills based analysis to project future performance.
Doing results based analysis is like riding a horse to work. It might get you where you want to go, but in the age of modern transportation, just take a car.
48: That was a bad post and you should feel bad.
Now, compare that to teams who have a better shot. All they have to worry about is multiple injuries to multiple players, because
a) they have depth; they have quality backups that won’t
hurt them if they have to play.
b) they expect their star players to have normal years.
While obvious, the lists have a huge numbers of ifs, ands or buts.
If I were putting together a team, I’d aim at cutting the list down until I have just the two concerns.
King Felix. He’s shown flashes of absolute brilliance. I know, I’ve been there to witness some of these flashes. But, somewhat like his idol (one F.Garcia)…there’s been no proof that he can actually perform at that brilliant level for an entire season, much less an entire career.
Isn’t expecting him to “put it all together” and live up to that potential is as speculative and hopeful as the thoughts of those fans who think that Willie Boom-Boom would shine “if he only got the chance…
Bloomquist has never shown the kind of brilliance in the field or at the plate that Felix has shown on the mound multiple times.
There are lots of examples of pitchers who took some time to put it all together — Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay spring to mind. In fact, you could probably say that almost all pitchers the age that Felix is take a few years to put it together. They just do it in college, or the minors, largely out of public view. It’s easy to forget just how young this kid still is. A twenty-one-year-old starter with multiple plus pitches? The M’s would be offered plenty in trade if they made him available.
And while I don’t know how Felix thinks about the opening day starter when he’s by himself, he’s said that it’s “fine.” Personally, I don’t know why anybody makes a big deal of it (Baker’s depiction that Felix “lost his job” is just stupid). It matters about as much as those “most valued employee” plaques you see at fast food restaurants.
I meant “employee of the week” plaques, actually.
From his peripherals, you would expect Vidro to have a BABIP around .320. That’s the result of the insane number of ground balls he hits (51% GBs and 19.5% LDs is high). Why a team wants to keep an old, slow player who beats the ball into the ground and hopes it finds a hole as a DH is beyond me. He’s due for a regression next year, weather you want to argue that his BABIP will be 20 points lower, or the remainder of his power will vanish, or he’ll be injured again.
#42
Good point. My question, more specifically, is if anyone thinks management would bench or platoon one of Ibanez / Vidro / Sexson / Johjima for Clement if the veteran is tanking. My opinion is that with this management team it will probably take an injury to get Clement into the lineup. (And I never root for injuries, even for opponents. It’s bad karma.)
It would be nice to believe we had a backup plan in case McLaren’s guaranteed COTY award for Sexson fails to materialize, but I have a feeling if Sexson ‘07 returns (this time…it’s personal!) we’ll just end up watching him suck until the end of the season while Clement stays in AAA.
Dave,
Vidro’s skillset is wierd, that’s for sure. But for a guy that had a 50+% GB rate, with a high PA, and a very high BIP rate, I think we would expect to see an unusually high infield hit rate.
And, we should also see an unusually high GIDP rate. We do: 21, a personal worst which puts him in a 7 player tie for 7th in the league for 2007.
The big question I suppose is, can he reclaim the power he once had. Vidro had some health issues that very neatly coincided with his greatly diminished power. The strong second half suggests the possibility of some upside – a healthier Vidro could very well start reclaiming some power.
Vidro’s skillset is wierdly good, and I was wondering if I could find similar players. Still awaiting the 2008 Prospectus, I did a little comparison of Vidro and his comparables going into 2007: Tommy Herr, Johnny Ray, Todd Walker and Kevin Seitzer. Your recent comparison to Sean Casey is a very good one, but he naturally was never athletic enough to play second base.
Of the four 2007 comparables, none were his equal in their prime, particularly when you look for a combo of power and OBP. Seitzer probably comes closest, but it isn’t really that close. Yet Seitzer, an inferior player to Vidro in his prime and particularly when it came to power, put up OPS’s of .816 and .859 at ages 33 and 34.
I think it is very possible we’re underestimating the raw skills Vidro possesses, and the potential that we could see them again. Certainly the Mariner organization sees something there.
To put up the weak power numbers Vidro put up in 07 and yet offer a VORP of 24 suggests there is a unique hitting talent hidden in there. He was putting the ball in play an awful lot, and when he wasn’t, he was drawing a walk.
56–
Since management didn’t bench Ibanez last year in favor of Jones, who was already at a major league level why would they this year for Clement who isn’t?
57- There is the problem, “the Mariner organization sees something there.” Hasn’t that proven to be a bad thing unless you are coming from Japan or your name is Beltre in the FA market?
Dave,
Doesn’t Betancourt also represent some upside potential as well, or was your original projection for him near what you think his upside is?
I really enjoyed yesterday and today’s posts, especially today’s since it makes me feel that the chances of the Mariner’s contending is higher than I thought.
Having your first three scenarios all happen obviously isn’t likely, but I’m guessing there’s a 5-10% of all of them happening, though. That only gets us to 87 or 88 wins, but then you throw in a bit of luck (and let’s be honest the M’s will have to get some luck to be contenders this year) and that puts us into the low 90’s, which would probably at least keep things interesting most of the year.
One other possible improvement area: Clement improves ahead of projections, offensively and defensively, and enables us to trade Johjima mid-season for a decent outfielder.
But either way, there’s still little downside to signing Corey Patterson now.
57 – normally, yes. But they’ve gone against the grain in the past with such veterans and been proven right: Ibanez and Putz come to mind. Also Batista.
But if Vidro is healthy and still sucks in April and May, I hope they have a quick hook. Same thing with Sexson. As Dave points out, there are options.
62- As much as we’d all like it, and as much as it would make sense, I doubt they will dump Richie or Turbo becuase of the money owed…that’s a lot of coin to just eat…best case scenario is if they kick ass and then we could trade them for corner outfielders and put Raul at DH and Wilks at 1B…
joser,
I totally agree. I see the move of Felix out of the ODS position as a reduction (at a least symbolic one) of pressure on him to dominate. Maybe if he doesn’t feel like he has to carry the team and throw a perfect game every outing, he can relax and become the pitcher we all want him to be.
I would vote for Lofton over Patterson. Patterson’s career OBP is .298. Lofton, at 40 last year, had an OBP of .367. Lofton’s slugging percentage last year has 30 points higher than Patterson’s. Patterson has been over league average for OPS exactly once in his career. Maybe I’m also influenced by watching Lofton steal that homer from Beltre on his 40th birthday last year, but when I look at Lofton’s stats I see “smart player” and when I look at Patterson’s I see “dumb player.”
I’m hearing from a good source that the M’s are pursuing Kenny Lofton, even though they already have Wilkerson and Ibanez at the corners.
Given the ages of Ibanez, Vidro and Lofton, that would be a good move, playing each of those guys on a 2 out of 3 game basis. Imagine the M’s
with Ichiro and Lofton at the top of the lineup.
Signing Lofton might also have the effect of not allowing Vidro’s option for ‘09 to vest – I’m assuming he has to get at least 450 plate appearances for it to vest…
I would not be against that.
Still more effective in the long run to grow your own, though…
The W – where are you hearing this from, and why isn’t Lofton being pursued by more teams? Yes, he’s 41, but he steals bases, plays above average defense, hits for a good average, and robs Beltre of homers. He is also a VETERAN!!! An outfield of Ibanez/Lofton platoon, Ichiro, and Wilkerson/Balentien platoon sounds good to me. Three of those guys are already excellent offensive players, and the other two play above average defense.
Possibly if he’s asking for multiple years.
But that solves itself as time goes on…
What about if Sexson hits .240 with 35 homers like McLaren says he will? That would add a few more wins to the pennant race, wouldnt it?
The Mariners view themselves as contending for the division, this year.
I don’t imagine ANY player will be on a very long leash if they start to suck.
67 – I believe Vidro’s 2009 is a club option, not a player option.
Not that it makes much difference – they may bring him back anyway.
What kills me is that all of these are things that are possible, but you can’t control – except one. You can’t make a player stay healthy or make a player improve or post a career year. But the team could decide, right now, to move Vidro to the bench and get Ibanez out of left field. Sign Patterson/Lofton/whoever, and your team is instantly better. It’s not something that management just has to hope will happen – they could do it today.
Here’s a thought – could you sign Patterson or Lofton to a two-year deal for the same amount that you would owe Vidro next year if his option vests? Wouldn’t you then be making the team better right now, at no additional cost over the next two years – even if the guy you sign takes Vidor’s spot on the bench next year?
If you had a management team that could be flexible. But I see this front office as being wedded to stability, roles and “known quantities” at the expense of performance.
1) The M’s aren’t going to bench Jose Vidro…because the M’s management looks at Vidro as one of their shining lights–a player who has a decent batting average. That’s one of the prime things that USSM has taught me–that certain statistics don’t mean as much as the average fan (and, evidently, the below average front office types) THINK they mean.
For heavens sakes, they put Vidro in the field…repeatedly…last year. They’re not going to bench him, no matter how much it makes sense to those who have learned to evaluate talent in ways that actually make sense.
I LOVE the idea of moving Raul to DH and having Vidro as a “we need a hit” pinch hitter coming off the bench (certainly, he wouldn’t be a “we need a HR or RBI” pinch hitter)–but it’s not going to happen with our current front office…because they value metrics that aren’t actually valuable.
And then there’s money.
Let’s all admit that they’ve overpaid for “talent” (and is it just me or do you get the distinct feeling that professional athletes in all sports seem to not want to play in this town…even when things are going well and they should relish the chance to play for a town that will love them far longer than they might ever deserve?)–talent that has proved elusive to count on to the value that they’re being paid.
It MUST be hard to let that go…so, they choose to roll the dice on Sexson turning things around, rather than realizing that Broussard was the better option. They waste Adam Jones’ one chance to really show us what he could do in Mariner blue because they couldn’t stand to sit their more expensive talent.
Barring injury or absolute collapse, there’s simply little chance of Jeff Clement being much more than a disappointing bat off the bench with the big club this year.
And…one last thing. There’s no one miracle player that makes this mess all better. It wasn’t Bartolo Colon, it won’t be Eric Bedard…and I don’t think that it’s Patterson or Lofton.
If this team succeeds, it will be because a number players are overachieving (quite possibly in the way that this main post details.) If this team fails, it will be because the team was put together with all of the wrong headed ideas in mind.
No one thing is going to fix it…save of a spy satellite falling to earth and taking out a number of thoroughly decent human beings but absolutely wrongheaded baseball executives. (And even I’m not enough of a darkly cynical fan to want that…)
pg
Were the 2007 Google community projections ever compared to actuals to see if anyone came close to projecting a player’s stats?
Thanks for succinct summary of Kenji. I’m amazed at the number of people (not on this blog) who just aren’t impressed.
The one of Dave’s variables I’m hoping for the most is Lopez. I’d love for the rest of them to happen, but there’s always next season (since I don’t have high hopes for this year.) With JLo, I’m afraid if he doesn’t produce quickly and consistently, he’ll be sent away, never to see a pony again. I’m pretty sure we’d regret that in the long run.
I hate the win now or else mentality.
Way back at #36
Dave,
I like Vidro, but I agree with you that Ibanez would be a much better DH.
This lineup needs one more move, such as you described. I hope Bavasi agrees and makes it happen.
King Felix. He’s shown flashes of absolute brilliance. I know, I’ve been there to witness some of these flashes. But, somewhat like his idol (one F.Garcia)…there’s been no proof that he can actually perform at that brilliant level for an entire season, much less an entire career.
He’s 21 fucking years old.
Technically puberty hits around 13 or so thus I’d suggest he’s only about 7 of those years….
I had the impression that informed opinion here (Hi, Dave!) says that Wlad just isn’t ready to come up, not even to platoon. Is that still the consensus, that even Raul out there would be better than forcing Wlad into a role he’s not ready for, assuming the FO isn’t smart enough to find another outfielder?
And I too think Kenji is a real asset to the team, FWIW.
I’m a big Kenji fan, too. For me, the question is whether he became the Mariners’ best all-time catcher his first year or last year. Not that he had much competition.
I am not a huge Kenji fan. It is purely from a fan point of view, I agree he is a positive addition to the team. If you look at just what I liked personally I have to say Guillen was one of my favorites last year. He was simply fun to watch play baseball. If he was still in the picture losing Jones would not hurt as much.
If the M’s are committed to winning, then if they are within 2 or 3 games of the Angels at the trading dealine you might see them make a big trade to pu them over the top. If not nothing will happen. That might make a difference of 2 or 3 games in the standings.
2-3 games at the trade deadline requires you to trade for one of Rickey Henderson’s best seasons when you’ve got Glenallen Hill in left, or something similarly dramatic. There just aren’t enough games to make that kind of difference.
The Mariners view themselves as contending for the division, this year.
I don’t imagine ANY player will be on a very long leash if they start to suck.
That could happen. Or, the M’s could demonstrate again their attachment to “hot streaks” or other forms of voodoo, and give the favored players all the leash imaginable. After all, they had that great hot streak last year, and Everyone Knows ™ that Sexson is a second half hitter!
I hope Dave’s not going to do a post on what can go horribly wrong. I’d hate it when he came up with even more things than I’ve already thought of.
Personally, I don’t think that Freddy Garcia ever had the potential that Felix does.
So if we’re one game out of first at the trade deadline, does the management trade wlad and perhaps juan ramirez for a big-shot right fielder? I mean, if things DO go well, and the organization is that close to being world series-caliber, do they completely screw their future and farm system if the prize is a big bat and above average defense? Probably, if it results in a world series, we’ll be happy, and then go into rebuilding mode mariners style (aka BAD style) after a successful year or two. But if it doesn’t, and we miss the playoffs, I imagine Bavasi will get fired, McLaren canned, and we’ll go into rebuilding mode unhappily and full of “fuck the fucking mariner fucktards” type sentiments.
I dunno, the immediate future of this organization looks pretty darn bleak.
But, somewhat like his idol (one F.Garcia)…there’s been no proof that he can actually perform at that brilliant level for an entire season, much less an entire career.
Isn’t expecting him to “put it all together” and live up to that potential is as speculative and hopeful as the thoughts of those fans who think that Willie Boom-Boom would shine
…
Something to consider: If the M’s entertained offers for Felix in trade–would we get a blockbuster trade result out of it…or would be shocked at how little we got in return?
Sorry, this is still bugging me. Does Brandon Morrow look like he’s even close to “putting it all together”? Yet he was picked #5 in the draft. And he’s two years older than Felix. (And so is Tim Lincecum)
Would you say Andrew Miller (who should’ve been drafted ahead of Morrow) has “put it all together”? And, what do you know, he was just traded for the most valuable and coveted position player to change teams this offseason. Last year as a rookie his ERA+ (league and park adjusted, 100 is average) was 81. Felix’s ERA+ was 110 (it was 157 in ‘05, his rookie year). Oh, and Felix is a year younger than him, too.
Seriously, people need to get some perspective. I know it seems like Felix has been around forever and I know everybody is impatient for him to be the kind of pitcher he’s shown he can be, but chill out. How good were you at anything in life at 21? (And I bet you weren’t doing it in front of 30,000 people ready to jump on your every mistake.) In a lot of ways Felix is even more of a unique talent than Ichiro. It’s very rare for a pitcher to make it to the big leagues so young. This is uncharted territory. Nobody knows how long it’s going to take, not even Felix. We need to be patient, and enjoy the journey.
91, you are one gloomy Gus.
I see some big upsides after this season, primarily in the person of that useless tall guy at first base, whom we’ll finally get SHET of, as my dad might say. I also think the pitching staff won’t deteriorate between 08 and 09, we’ll get rid of Vidro, and I’ll be happy to see those nice young men in their clean white coats and they’re coming to take me away ha ha!
Seriously. Don’t we think that if we just don’t backslide this coming season, we’ll have big opportunities to, then, progress?
Did anyone see the note on RotoWorld that McLaren is considering keeping Balentien on the major league roster as a bench player. Seems like a great idea… if the idea is actually to kill his development and not really do anything to help the defense.
93. see subsequent posts from DMZ.
#94– FWIW, Crasnick’s actual line in the original piece Rotoworld referenced was: “The Mariners also haven’t ruled out the possibility of prospect Wladimir Balentien breaking camp as a bat off the bench, because they think they could get him enough playing time not to hinder his development. “
Crasnick’s has an ESPN piece up right now that says:
In a perfect world, Seattle’s offseason additions will have a ripple effect. A stronger rotation will ease the strain on a bullpen that showed signs of wear in September. And Bedard’s arrival should take some focus off Hernandez, who has somehow been classified as a tease for failing to pitch to his potential. When you’re dubbed “King Felix” on the blogosphere at 19, there’s not much room for a learning curve.
“People were labeling him ‘The King’ and saying he’s going to be the next Dwight Gooden,” Washburn said. “Yeah, he has that potential and I think he’s going to get there. But to expect that at 20 years old was a little bit too much pressure. It’s ridiculous for people to be disappointed over what he’s done so far. He’s accomplished quite a bit already at this level, and he’s only going to get better.”
Uh. Who the hell is disappointed?
92–You missed the original point that I was trying to make.
I’m not saying that Felix isn’t going to put it together or that I feel that he should already have. I’m merely pointing out that there’s no way to be certain that he will.
Yet, even here on USSM where there is a strong faith in the ability of the right statistics to indicate beyond simple fan-based love how a team or player might perform, there are still times where the eternally springing hopes of a fan might be coloring outside of the statistical lines.
This thread began with a few areas where there might be optimism for improvement over the simulation results. Two (ok, one and a half) of those suggestions involve Felix living up to what we seem to believe is his potential…to pitch like a Cy Young candidate and stay healthy.
The history of baseball is littered with young prodigies who never put it together…or who flashed briefly and then flickered out…or those who have constantly been on the verge of their expected greatness…or who fell into injurious decline. Felix could be Kerry Wood. Felix could be Mark Fidrych. Felix could be Dave Fleming. (Luckily, we know that Felix isn’t Brien Taylor…and I’m pretty certain that he’s not David Clyde.)
Or, Felix could be Fernando or Dwight or Pedro…he could be Feller or maybe Nuxhall.
But, then you read about Wally Bunker…and you realize that you simply don’t know…and can’t know, until it happens. And only then will statistics help you predict whether or not it happens again.
My point was…it’s easy to fall into the trap of overvaluing our own talent and their potential to generate the results we hope they will. Is it statistically sound or simply a fan’s desire to pin our hopes on a “yet to occur” breakthrough for this year’s Felix?
I was expressing my doubts and willingness to be cautious. I’ve fallen into the trap of overvaluing our talent before. Because I’m an M’s fan, and we’re not given much choice.
pg
Um, Felix is a 4 win player TODAY. Even if he never takes another step forward, he’s still immensely valuable.
I hear bees.
Tell you what – why don’t you get together with all the people who are absolutely convinced that I’m biased against our players, intentionally talk negatively about them so that I can seem smarter, and serve to underestimate the abilities of the guys on the roster. Then, when you guys figure out which bias I hold – for or against – come back, and I’ll answer for that one.
Until then, I’ll assume that since there are people who think I’m biased both ways, I’m doing okay.
And here’s why your analysis is wrong – everything you’ve said in the entire comment deals with correlation of past results to future projections. You are, essentially, stating that that his historical outcomes should be our baseline for what he’s going to do going forward. By using results, you are including both his past skills (relevant information) and the influences of others (not relevant information) to try to determine his true talent level.
This is empirically a bad way to begin a projection. By using results instead of skills, you’re eliminating a good amount of the knowledge we have about a player and inherently building a worse projection than one that uses skills based analysis to project future performance.
Doing results based analysis is like riding a horse to work. It might get you where you want to go, but in the age of modern transportation, just take a car.
At the risk of using this quote out of context, I’m not at all sure what to make of this statement. While I’ve never heard you reject scouting type (skills-based) information, I’ve always understood you to be more into stats oriented (results-based) analyses. And haven’t we heard many times here that past results can be very indicative of the future?
Certainly no need to get Lofton — we’ve got Jeremy Reed still on the 40-man and able to do everything you could reasonably hope from Lofton, and probably more. Kind of a waste to sign and bring in what is basically duplicated talent for a higher price.
103: You presumably mean “apart from being able to contribute offensively at a major league level”, right? Subjectively, I’ve always been a big Jeremy Reed fan. Thrust into the centerfield job in 2005, accompanied by Rookie of the Year projections and getting off to a slow start, I thought he persevered well and seemed to improve as a fielder. Since then, though, he’s basically forgotten how to hit. And by “hit”, I mean for average, for on-base percentage or power. Kenny Lofton, 14 years younger, does all of those better than Jeremy Reed right now. I find it hard reasonably to project that Reed is ever going to be as good as Lofton is right now. I wish I could, because I not only have always liked him, I agree that it would be a lot better for the future of the Mariners if Reed were as good as he was supposed to be as the centerpiece of the Garcia trade.
#104
I would be very surprised if Lofton would hit any better than Reed would next year. (provided that both of them were to get significant playing time). His defense is also at least the equal of Lofton’s, and because they are so similar as players across the board right now, bringing in Lofton when you already have Reed is just duplicating talent. Assuming Lofton would be a significantly better hitter than Reed this year seems like a stretch, considering that Lofton will be 41. Even if that were to be true, and you were to assume his defense is the equal of Reed’s, the difference he would make as a backup player would probably be on the order of maybe a quarter win a year.
Can’t see how that’s worth paying a couple million and losing a player off the 40-man as well.