Comments on: 2008 PECOTA cards are out for hitters http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/ Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:45:30 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: philosofool http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253188 philosofool Tue, 26 Feb 2008 00:21:32 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253188 Pitcher cards are out now too. Pitcher cards are out now too.

]]> By: Evan http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253172 Evan Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:10:12 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253172 <blockquote>Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe.</blockquote> PECOTA seems to equate walk rates with future power, and Johjima's walk rate is incredibly low (7th lowest in the AL in 2007, min 400 PA).

Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe.

PECOTA seems to equate walk rates with future power, and Johjima’s walk rate is incredibly low (7th lowest in the AL in 2007, min 400 PA).

]]> By: philosofool http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253145 philosofool Sun, 24 Feb 2008 23:42:00 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253145 Vidro: Break: 1%, Improve 24%, Collapse 38%. Uhg. Vidro: Break: 1%, Improve 24%, Collapse 38%. Uhg.

]]> By: JMB http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253136 JMB Sun, 24 Feb 2008 20:32:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253136 Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe. Catcher on the wrong side of 30, quite a workload the past two years. Though that drop in power is pretty severe.

]]> By: vj http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253135 vj Sun, 24 Feb 2008 19:44:43 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253135 They predict quite a decline for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/johjike01.php" rel="nofollow">Johjima</a>. I wonder why. They predict quite a decline for Johjima. I wonder why.

]]> By: Mat http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253130 Mat Sun, 24 Feb 2008 07:29:42 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253130 The problem with the dates in the list of comparables is <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=772" rel="nofollow">a known issue</a>. The problem with the dates in the list of comparables is a known issue.

]]> By: James T http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253129 James T Sun, 24 Feb 2008 07:11:25 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253129 They've got a few problems with the lists of comparables. I think there were typos listing the wrong years among just about every player's comps. For instance, for Ichiro Suzuki, the comps (never very good approximations for him, anyway) included Matty Alou . . in 1979 (5 years after he retired) and Dom DiMaggio in . . . 1969, 16 years after he retired! Mayb PECOTA has good reason to expect Ichiro to retire retroactively and become a very successful businessman and grandfather in 2008 but I'm not seeing it. They’ve got a few problems with the lists of comparables. I think there were typos listing the wrong years among just about every player’s comps. For instance, for Ichiro Suzuki, the comps (never very good approximations for him, anyway) included Matty Alou . . in 1979 (5 years after he retired) and Dom DiMaggio in . . . 1969, 16 years after he retired! Mayb PECOTA has good reason to expect Ichiro to retire retroactively and become a very successful businessman and grandfather in 2008 but I’m not seeing it.

]]> By: JMB http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253128 JMB Sun, 24 Feb 2008 06:37:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253128 Clement comment: "He`ll have to work hard to reclaim the mantle of top Mariners prospect from Adam Jones." Uh, I guess he didn't have to work THAT hard. Clement comment: “He`ll have to work hard to reclaim the mantle of top Mariners prospect from Adam Jones.”

Uh, I guess he didn’t have to work THAT hard.

]]> By: terry http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253127 terry Sun, 24 Feb 2008 05:16:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253127 I'm just amazed that a guy with those projected numbers as a DH in 2008 would also be projected to be in baseball in 2012....... I’m just amazed that a guy with those projected numbers as a DH in 2008 would also be projected to be in baseball in 2012…….

]]> By: Mat http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/comment-page-1/#comment-253126 Mat Sun, 24 Feb 2008 04:30:23 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/22/2008-pecota-cards-are-out-for-hitters/#comment-253126 This doesn't make sense to me: .266 EQA, 506 PA, 9.8 VORP -- Jose Vidro, DH .271 EQA, 579 PA, 14.7 VORP -- Ichiro, CF Last year AL DH's hit .268/.355/.447 (AL RF hit .288/.359/.465) and AL CF's hit .272/.340/.414 so I'm not buying that the difference in replacement levels is as small as the VORP totals on the PECOTA cards would seem to imply. This doesn’t make sense to me:

.266 EQA, 506 PA, 9.8 VORP — Jose Vidro, DH
.271 EQA, 579 PA, 14.7 VORP — Ichiro, CF

Last year AL DH’s hit .268/.355/.447 (AL RF hit .288/.359/.465) and AL CF’s hit .272/.340/.414 so I’m not buying that the difference in replacement levels is as small as the VORP totals on the PECOTA cards would seem to imply.

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