Comments on: MLB Embraces Replacement Level

By: bookbook

bookbook — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 23:18:27 +0000

+I would be interested to see a post that explores the strange economy of major league baseball which allows individual teams to ignore best practice trends to their detriment. Dave or some economist?+

There is a popular misconception that businesses are all well-run, and need to be to survive.

There’s a popular misunderstanding that “survival of the fittest” in the Darwinian sense means that every individual that survives and reproduces is therefore more “fit” than every individual who does not.

Every competitive system is far more dynamic – and far more random – than that.

Survival of the fittest probably means that a “fit” gene lends a 5% survival advantage or even less to an organism. Given enough generations, the more fit gene wins out.

Anyone who has worked for any business knows they all do a ton of stupid things.

The White Sox can ignore the rules of putting together a great baseball team and still create the best team in the league every so often.

No biggie.

By: BaltimoreDave

BaltimoreDave — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 23:42:18 +0000

I don’t think I’m missing Zeke’s point, I just don’t agree with it. To me, it’s built on two assumptions I don’t believe are true: 1) That fewer teams will be in the market for free agents, which will drive down their cost, and 2) That the makeup of the free agent market will remain the same.

By: zugzwang

zugzwang — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:40:00 +0000

42 and 43 –
Sorry, but I think your missing Zeke’s point, which in shorter form is this: there is a pool of free agents out there. Historically, that pool has been overvalued, with the M’s bidding gamely for overpriced midlevel talent. Now, if Dave is right, fewer teams are buyers in that market. The remaining buyers may still drive prices too high relative to replacement level, but the drop in demand should lead to some reduction in over-spending. Buyers in that market are still likely stupid, but their stupidity will be a bit cheaper.

By: Bremerton guy

Bremerton guy — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 08:33:35 +0000

The Transaction Guy reports today,

Looking to bolster a leaky rotation, the St. Louis Cardinals have come to terms with free agent righthander Kyle Lohse. Loshe, 29, split the 2007 season between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies, posting a 4.62 ERA and a 122/57 K/BB in 192.2 innings pitched. According to the AP, Lohse’s agreement with the Cards is a one-year, $4.25M deal with an additional $500K available through performance incentives based on innings pitched.

By: scraps

scraps — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:27:22 +0000

Well, Henderson was at least an order of magnitude better than Lofton. Though I’m surprised Lofton isn’t getting offers, too.

By: scott19

scott19 — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:18:39 +0000

1: I find that intersting, too, that nobody’s signed Lofton yet — considering that Rickey Henderson was still getting contract offers at the same age about 8-9 years ago.

By: scraps

scraps — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 03:07:49 +0000

Partly, yeah. ‘Sokay. Thanks.

By: BaltimoreDave

BaltimoreDave — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 03:04:18 +0000

Scraps –

I think you may be referring to my post (#33). Sorry ’bout that; my sarcasm meter went on the fritz getting through some of the first 30 posts.

By: Kazinski

Kazinski — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 02:49:25 +0000

The Giants look like they have built an entire team of replacement players, except for their 3 young pitchers. That might be enough to contend in the NL.

By: bluerag

bluerag — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 02:22:19 +0000

well, loshe signs with the cards, 1 yr 4.25m. good call.