Pitch Type Leaderboards
If you didn’t already think fangraphs was awesome, they’ve now gone and really done it – they’ve added pitch type and velocity data from Baseball Info Solutions for every pitcher in the game. They even included a leaderboard.
Among pitchers who threw 100 innings last year, Felix Hernandez’s fastball clocked in #1 at 95.6 MPH. His slider also clocked in #1 at 88.3 MPH. His curveball? #1, 82.2 MPH. His change-up slacked off, coming in #3 (86.6 MPH), behind A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett. Moral of the story? Felix throws really hard.
Also, being able to throw a hard change-up is a tremendous asset. Here’s the list of 100 IP guys that throw their change at 84.0 MPH or higher: Burnett, Beckett, Felix, McGowan, Cain, Edwin Jackson (USSM approved offseason acquisition), Millwood, Escobar, Sabathia, Gaudin, Ramon Ortiz (the hilarious outlier on this list), Penny, Sheets, Lincecum, Billingsley, Peavy, Cabrera, Sosa, Smoltz, Snell, Greinke, and Bannister. That’s one hell of a list.
The patron saint of mixing up his pitches – Jesse Litsch. 19% fastballs, 11% sliders, 40% cutters, 16% curveballs, and 13% change-ups. The only other guy I found that came close to throwing five different pitches at least 10% of the time – Shaun Marcum. Marcum and Litsch are teammates in Toronto. Raise your hands if you think that’s a coincidence.
Speaking of Jesse Litsch, he’s the only guy who threw more cutters than Miguel Batista last year. If you’re wondering why Batista’s groundball rate fell in 2007 from his previous career norms, the cut fastball is why. He threw it 28% of the time in 2005, 26% of the time in 2006, and 39% of the time last year. Also, if you look at Batista’s velocity readings over the last three years, he’s clearly losing a tick off each of his pitches. We’re watching the evolution of a guy learning to pitch differently as his stuff deteriorates.
Mariano Rivera: 26.7% fastballs, 73.3% cutters. The average velocity on the fastball is 93.2, and the average velocity on the cutter is 93.6. 99.9% of the time, Mariano Rivera is going to throw a low to mid 90s fastball with movement, and hitters still can’t do anything with it. It’s really incredible.
And, finally, if you don’t think the M’s have an organizational mental image of what a reliever looks like, I present this page. Among the top 24 relievers in percentage of fastball thrown, we find Brandon Morrow, Jason Davis, Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz, and Rafael Soriano all in pretty close vicinity to each other. All five also throw a power slider, while Putz and Morrow mix in some splitters. Putz, Thornton, and Davis all have the same body type to boot. If you’re 6’5, throw hard, and have a slider, the M’s are probably interested in sticking you in the 8th inning of ballgames.
Jeff Sullivan has some more fun Mariner tidbits from this stuff over at LL. I heart fangraphs.
Fangraphs is trying to cement itself as the premiere “one stop shopping” stats page isn’t it? More power to them. They do some damn fine services to us all for free.
Thanks so much! What a great website!
Fangraphs just got even more amazing.
And if someone tells me that Felix doesn’t have the best stuff in baseball I finally have a reference point for proving them wrong.
Can you talk about why it’s so great to be able to throw a hard changeup? I understand that if you can throw a 96 mph fastball and an 84 mph fastball it’s pretty good. But wouldn’t a faster changeup generally indicate a lower difference between speeds in fastball and changeup? And wouldn’t that indicate it being easier to hit? Maybe I’m missing something. Not that I’m disputing the impressiveness of the list – I just don’t understand intuitively why it is good.
You’re not trying to throw slow, you’re trying to upset timing. If your fastball is 88, an 86 changeup isn’t going to work for you. Felix throws so hard, though, that he still gets a 10 MPH difference that works. And when the change is as fast as some guys’ fastball, it’s impossible to adjust. Batters swing at air or plink grounders off the end of the bat.
[ot]
This data is fascinating. It’s interesting to me to see how much player’s make adjustments season-to-season. Perhaps this is due to a pitching coach’s influence or just general adjustments.
For example, Bedard last year threw far more curveballs, and fewer fastballs and change-ups. And pow, his K ratio goes through the roof.
I feel like this is what the beat writers have been telling us all this time in notebook entries, but I haven’t been able to see or understand for myself since it wasn’t quantifiable.
It should be interesting to see the next step of this data– for example, it may be possible to measure the impact of one pitching coach versus another in terms other than the results yielded by the talent level of the pitchers on the team.
I’ve always been amazed that Mariano Rivera has been throwing close to a single pitch his entire career and the league hasn’t adjusted to it. Does he hide the ball extremely well? Is it that he throws the pitch to all 4 quadrants of the strike zone? Is there some unpredictability factor that makes his pitch so tough to hit?
There have been guys who’ve thrown harder or with more movement or with greater control but none has been as consistent a closer as he has. What makes him so tough to hit that he’s had an 11 year run of being nigh unhittable?
Dave, on the hard change-ups, is there a problem for guys like Gaudin and Bannister who have less than a 6 MPH difference between their average fastball and change (especially considering the difference starts to shrink to almost nothing between their below average velocity fastballs and above average velocity change-ups)?
There’s something of a myth surrounding the reason for the effectiveness of the change-up. While it’s true that it relies on the deception of appearing like a fastball for some of its usefulness, the change-up is not simply a slower fastball. The pitch, especially when thrown by someone who knows what they’re doing with it, moves quite differently than a fastball.
Because of the fade and drop of a well thrown change-up, it is often a very good pitch against opposite handed hitters, where the fastball is generally not. In this way, a pitcher who can command an 83-85 MPH change-up, while still putting movement on it, can succeed even if his fastball is only 90-92. The difference between speeds may not be ideal, but it doesn’t render the change-up useless. In many ways, a power change acts somewhat like a split-finger fastball, giving a pitcher a swing-and-miss weapon against hitters from both sides of the plate.
The only other piece of data I could possibly wish for here is how often each pitch is thrown for a strike and what percentage of each make contact with a bat.
Then you could have an ‘outpitch’ leaderboard.
The only slower pitcher in baseball than Jamie Moyer is Tim Wakefield…Moyer’s fastball is slower (81.1) than almost every other pitcher’s change up.
So at one point a few years ago, the Mariners were trotting out the slowest pitcher in baseball followed by the fastest (Felix).
it may be possible to measure the impact of one pitching coach versus another in terms other than the results yielded by the talent level of the pitchers on the team.
That seems unlikely. It’s not like a pitching coach is a constant factor you can add and see the same results from every pitcher — 10% more curve-balls, or more effective change-ups, or whatever. A good pitching coach is going to tailor his advice to each pitcher; in some cases he may be giving opposite advice to one pitcher vs another. Meanwhile, the pitchers themselves are on their own development paths and are going to employ, or be able to employ, a coach’s advice to varying degrees. And the pitching coach isn’t the only person they’re listening to — it wasn’t a pitching coach that taught Putz his splitfinger, or told hime to use it. It’s worth a try, but given all the noise it’s going to be hard to tease out the influence of a coach from all the other factors.
I’ve always been amazed that Mariano Rivera has been throwing close to a single pitch his entire career and the league hasn’t adjusted to it. Does he hide the ball extremely well?
One reason is that there is a difference between a short reliever and other pitchers. A given batter only faces a short reliever once in a game.
Baseball Info Systems evidently does not get their data from the Pitch F/X system — where do they get their data? Do they have their own guys with radar guns, or to they rely upon the pitch speed numbers flashed at the ballpark (but not all ballparks tell you what the pitch’s speed was). And how do they determine the type of pitch?
But it’s not like none of them have never seen him before, or that other short relievers with that same advantage can get away with throwing just one pitch so successfully over a long career.
And some batters had success against him. Among batters with at least 20 PAs against Rivera, sorted by OPS
Edgar Martinez (23 PA) .579 .652 1.705
Rafael Palmeiro (34 PA) .333 .471 1.027
Nomar Garciaparra (22 PA) .364 .364 .909
David Ortiz (27 PA) .346 .370 .908
Carlos Delgado (22 PA) .400 .455 .905
It’s amazing Edgar went 11 for 19 lifetime against Rivera, with 3 walks and just 4 Ks.
You sure? My guess is it was likely some pitching coach along the way. People don’t generally inherently learn to throw a split finger without some instruction along the way. I am biased as a coach, but I do believe a strong theory from a coach makes an impact. Look at the Toronto situation, I really can’t see any way the coach hasn’t drastically impacted those 2 pitchers.
His cut fastball has such incredible movement that it doesn’t matter if he “hides” the ball. Everyone knows it is coming, and like Paul B implied, his effectiveness would go down if each batter faced him 3-4 times a game.
Yeah, it was Eddie Guardado who taught him the pitch.
Hardball Times had an article last month that ranked the best pitches in the game. Both Putz and Morrow ranked in the top 20 for the best fastball. Jamie Moyer had one of the top 20 changeups. Felix ranked in only one category, he had the 7th best slider. Now there are a lot of factors that go into what makes a pitch effective, when it is thrown may have as much to do with it as how well it is executed. But at least in this analysis, no matter how hard the pitch is thrown doesn’t seem to indicate how effective it is.
The Games Best Pitch
Thank you for the correction, Dave. But I’m still confused on this point: “Because of the fade and drop of a well thrown change-up” — isn’t that the same thing as “simply a slower fastball”? A ball thrown the same way, only slower, won’t follow the same trajectory; it WILL drop more, because it has less forward momentum. In order to keep the same trajectory, it would have to have more and different spin applied to it (if that’s even possible) and it wouldn’t be a straight changeup anymore.
IIRC, what Guardado taught Putz was a new grip for the splitter …
In the near future, it will probably be possible to statistically determine what it is about different pitches that makes them more or less effective, e.g., given PITCHf/x data for changeups and fastballs and swinging strike %s, it would only take a simple regression to definitively figure out if FB/CH speed differential is less responsible for being “unhittable” than break or just CH speed or anything else. That’s really cool.
A changeup isn’t thrown the same way as a fastball, only slower. A changeup is thrown with a different grip than a fastball, and a lot of pitchers throw it with a bit of a screwball-like action, which creates the “fade” that Dave is talking about; a changeup will tail away from a batter more than a fastball would.
For an example of the arm action involved in a changeup, check out Kazinski’s link and look at the picture of Johan Santana. He’s definitely throwing a changeup there, and it’s pretty remarkable how much his arm pronates in his motion.
Jamie Moyer’s pitches are slow and slower.. and he taught the change up to Cole Hamels. Trevor Hoffman has a devastating change up and Eric Gagne used to be really effective with it when his velocity was higher. As a hitter, it really screws with you cause you never know when its coming.
Watching Rivera on TV I just don’t see the incredible movement on his cutter that everyone fawns over. Too me, that pitch doesn’t move a ton on either plane (horizontal or vertical). That’s why I’m fascinated that he’s been so successful for 11 years. Maybe TV just doesn’t do the pitch justice. As mentioned earlier, just being a reliever and having limited at bats vs. him doesn’t cut it. Lot’s of guys only pitch 75-80 innings a year but they aren’t nearly as effective as Rivera in throwing only a single pitch, over and over again.
Heck, Jeff Nelson’s slider looked a lot more intimidating and unhittable then Rivera’s cutter but he couldn’t make a career out of throwing just that pitch.
and he taught the change up to Cole Hamels.
Uhh, no. Hamels has had an unbelievable change-up since high school. I wrote him up as having one of the best change-ups on the planet when I saw him pitch in the South Atlantic League as an 18-year-old.
Looking over Bedard……
In 2007 his pitch selction really changed. He’s now a pretty much two pitch guy. Am I idiot if I’m going to guess that Bedards focusing on the curve and fastball is the reason behind his K/9 spike in 2007?
I stand corrected. Thanks !
SteveT,
It is not just the slower speed that gives the changeup a different trajectory, it is also a different grip which will change the spin. Here is a great site that shows the grips for the three finger change, the circle change, and the palm ball (four finger change).
(Please ignore the video loop of Jeff Weaver showing his pitching form that is on the website, the horror.)
Watching Rivera on TV I just don’t see the incredible movement on his cutter that everyone fawns over. Too me, that pitch doesn’t move a ton on either plane (horizontal or vertical). That’s why I’m fascinated that he’s been so successful for 11 years. Maybe TV just doesn’t do the pitch justice.
If I had to guess why Rivera’s cutter is so hard to hit, I would guess that it’s not because it moves a lot, but probably because it has late movement. Even now, he appears to have more or less the fastest cutter in the game, which is some 5mph faster than the fastest sliders in the game.
One of the things I’ve noticed from the pitch f/x data is that pitches tend to cross the plate about 10mph slower than when they leave the pitcher’s hand. And a fast pitch should break less than a slower pitch simply because it has less time to break. But it’s not just the size of the break that matters. If Rivera’s cutter is thrown so hard that it doesn’t break much over the first 40 feet or so when the hitter is gauging the pitch, then breaks much more as it slows down, that potentially makes it much harder to hit than a slider that breaks more but has a more consistent break.
That may also potentially explain why a hard change-up is such an effective pitch. When Santana, for instance, has his change-up working really well, it seems to drop off of a shelf at some point–which means that it probably doesn’t have much vertical movement for the first however many feet and then as it slows down, it starts to break more. And since it’s at a pretty high velocity, the hitter has less overall time to react to the pitch, too.
um, no. Hamels learned it from the pitching coach at Rancho Bernardo High.
and here I bitch about others not reading the thread through before posting.
Dave, what do you think of Marcum? PECOTA has him falling way off this year, especially in comparison to his teammate MacGowan.
Marcum is done for the season.
I think you’re thinking of Casey Janssen who’s out for the year. Unless I’ve missed something recently on Marcum…
Ah right you are. Was reading old news.
So whatever happened to Morrow the starter?
The signings of Silva and Bedard made him expendable as a starter, so it looks like he’s gonna be in the bullpen for a while….if he ever gets out of there.
Kelvim Escobar is another guy who mixes up his pitches a lot. BIS has his pitch mix at 52% fastballs, 11% sliders, 4% cutters, 9% curveballs, 13% changeups, and 11% splitters. I assume what they label cutters should actually be sliders since Escobar doesn’t throw a cutter.
In the BIS data, he just misses the 5 pitches at 10% or more threshold on the curveball. In the PITCHf/x data, which only covers about 80% of his pitches, he threw 52% fastballs, 14% sliders, 10% curveballs, 13% changeups, and 10% splitters.
At this point I think the upside for Morrow is “the next Putz”