Angels take another blow; yet another roster suggestion
It’s apparently news day, so we’re inundating you with new posts. A few quick notes here.
Angels starter Kelvim Escobar revealed that he may have a torn ligament in his shoulder that could require surgery that would wipe out his 2008 season. No official decision has been made yet on whether they’re going to cut him open, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that the Angels will get much from one of their main cogs this year. Make no doubt about it – this is a big blow to the Angels. Escobar is probably a +3 win pitcher, and while the Angels have some solid potential replacement arms, none of them can make up for this loss. The gap between LAA and the M’s has certainly diminished.
Also, in the never ending series of suggestions of ways the M’s could improve their ballclub, I present Matt Murton. He lost his spot on the Cubs when they signed Reed Johnson (also a USSM suggested acquisition), and today they announced they’re not even going to carry Murton as a reserve. He simply needs a new organization, and like Johnson, he brings a perfect package of skills to the table in terms of what the M’s should be looking for in a fourth OF; right-handed, gap power, lefty masher, solid to plus defender in a corner OF. Toss in the fact that Murton is just 26 years old and has only two years of service time, and he’s the kind of player who could help the team both in 2008 and beyond. With players like Murton available, the M’s simply shouldn’t settle for their internal candidates for the fourth OF job – they can do better.
In other news, USSM endorsed Tacoma Rainiers announcer Mike Curto checks in with a few notes from Peoria as he blogs his way through minor league spring training. Go Curto Go.
And yes, for those asking, we saw Rob Neyer’s list of the 50 most valuable players over the next 5 years on ESPN. And yes, I’m intentionally not linking to it, mainly because it’s not very good. All you need to know – Felix and Bedard aren’t on the list, but Melky Cabrera is. Yep.
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Is Murton being released or are they looking to trade him? Is he out of options? Sounds like a great fit for the M’s.
Wow. Picking up Murton would be as smart as Rob Neyer’s list is dumb.
The list isn’t completely retarded because he’s got most of the better young players on there, and the elites like Santana and A-Rod. But, then again, it’s not exactly a ton of objective journalism. He’s basically taken every young position player and stuck them on there at random. I’ll never understand the lovefest with Melky Cabrera, besides him being a New York Yankee.
Pitchers? All of them are “established starters” already. Webb, Peavy, Santana, Sabathia, Verlander, Haren, Beckett… all valuable over the next 5 years? Damn that was a stretch of the brain cells. No mention of Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Cole Hamels, Josh Shields, etc. Then again, he also resists the temptation of mentioning the stupidly popular Joba Chamberlain and John Papelbon. So I’ll have to give him SOME credit.
Now I haven’t been reading Neyer’s stuff for years, so maybe I shouldn’t be this shocked. But Melky Cabrera and no Felix? Asdrubal Cabrera and no Felix? Jhonny Peralta at #21 overall? Wha?
#2 – Despite the fact that getting Matt Murton is a very smart idea, I just don’t think that is true. The list is just that bad.
Well, this idea makes sense, rest assured it will never happen with the club.
Melky Cabrera wins based on how cool his name is (though Felix is a pretty cool name), but it would be cooler if he went by Melchior.
Murton, incidentally, is a better player and a better fit for the Mariners (and the Cubs, actually) than Reed Johnson is, so we should be all over this.
Ugh. The M’s haven’t had a lot of success with NL hitters.
Murton, a Replacement Level player, could be about the 5th or 6th best hitter on the M’s. He would be a huge defensive upgrade over Raul. Unbelieveable
Murton isn’t replacement level.
Murton is not a replacement level player.
With regards to Murton’s defense, it is interesting to see him referred to as solid. Cristina Kahrl discussed him in her chat yesterday as:
“Murton’s just not much of an outfielder, and is especially stretched for right”
One of the other sabre-savvy sites was comparing Cub outfield options and described his defense as “piss-poor”.
actually it was BP again. Nate Silver describing his center field defense as piss poor.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=818
I’ve always been under the impression that his defense is awful, but then again I’d also take anything BP says in regard to defense with a gigantic grain of salt.
And, really, could he be more awful than Ibanez?
You know that BP is bad at measuring defence when I’m inclined to assume that Murton’s better in the outfield than I thought he was just because BP hates him.
His +/- has been consistently in the +5 range in both RF and LF, PMR has him as a positive contributor as a corner OF, UZR has had him at average, and Diamond Mind has rated him above average for several years running.
He’s probably not very good in CF (a slightly above average defensive LF is a below average defensive CF, just by nature of comparing him to better peers), but that doesn’t mean he can’t field LF/RF just fine and even be an asset there.
And even if the Mariners finish first, it doesn’t mean they won’t get swept out of the playoffs by the other far superior teams.
Ugh. The M’s haven’t had a lot of success with NL hitters.
Bret Boone, John Olerud and Adrian Beltre all say: “Hi, remember us?”
I’ll never understand the lovefest with Melky Cabrera, besides him being a New York Yankee.
PECOTA has him hitting something like a .280 EQA through his prime. That’s pretty good if he can stick in CF. He had a good RZR last year, but UZR thinks he’s more like a -5 runs/150G fielder. And he’s still a year younger than Jacoby Ellsbury (for example.) So I can understand what there is to like. Based solely on his pudginess, I question whether he’ll stick in CF defensively, but I see the upside. (But there’s no way he’s more talented than Felix.)
Is Mike Morse just unable to improve enough to adequately cover even a corner OF spot? Also, is his high-average hitting in Spring Training indicative of a change in approach, a ridiculously small sample size that likely will regress should he make it on the roster, or something else?
Also, the good folks at ESPN have picked there winners for each division and 3 out of 5 picked Seattle to WIN the division with 90+ wins. What do they see that we don’t?
Morse could work his tail off and go from “terrible” to just “bad” defensively if the M’s converted him to an OF full time and let him work on being an outfielder exclusively. If he’s carried as a utility player, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to make any significant improvement over what he is right now, and that’s a pretty lousy defensive outfielder.
His high average in spring training is indicative of nothing; spring training stats don’t matter at all. He’s probably within 5-10% of Murton offensively (Murton has a little more power and draws a few more walks), but the defensive difference is the big gain here.
It’s good to see BP is still rating defensive prowess by way of description, and has not yet adapted any form of mathematical way to back themselves up.
Some truly exciting tims.
times* DAMNIT.
I like the Aardsma idea better than Murton, if nothing more than the cost argument.
But yes, Murton would be a lot better than Morse.
It’s good to see BP is still rating defensive prowess by way of description, and has not yet adapted any form of mathematical way to back themselves up.
They’ve got defensive stats. They’re just laughably bad.
Actually, Murton is a poor fit for the Cubs because he can’t play CF. Really, he simply shouldn’t. He would fit better at 1B than in center. Not a bad corner OF, better than Ibanez or Morse (right now) but not in CF. Reed Johnson gives the Cubs a chance to sit Pie often and let him platoon. So, actually cutting Murton and getting R. Johnson was a very good move by the Cubs.
Murton has failed to win jobs in Chicago for a couple years, though he wasn’t given all that much time, but he simply didn’t stand up and take the job. That said, Murton would fit ok with the M’s.
The SFR system seems superior to the FRAA system, but Fenway’s LF park effect breaks it badly.
It’s hard to be inferior to FRAA.
Like, really hard. Random number generators are better than FRAA. Even XKCD-random number generators are better than FRAA.
I’m fairly certain any of our WAGs would be better than FRAA. I can’t believe how much I used to believe in it. *hangs head in shame*
So the Cubs got rid of a player in Murton and picked up a player (Johnson) with the same skill set? Is this a situation in which Murton fell out of favor with the brass? Any guess how the Cubs justify this?
Johnson is better defensively than Murton; good enough that Lou will actually stick him in center against lefties, which he wouldn’t do with Murton. So they view Johnson as having a skill that Murton doesn’t have (legitimately so), and thus valued Johnson higher for 2008.
Plus, with Fukodome and Soriano making big bucks, it’s not like Murton has a future in Chicago anyway.
The SFR system seems superior to the FRAA system, but Fenway’s LF park effect breaks it badly.
I think all fielding stats break to some degree in LF at Fenway. SFR correlates well with UZR, +/-, etc., and it doesn’t require BIS to calculate, so it will have its uses. And it’s probably worth pointing out that SFR was developed by Dan Fox and FRAA was developed by Clay Davenport, rather than each being developed by some nebulous and ill-defined “BP.”
So no Felix Pie?
Hasn’t he been “next year’s CFer” for about four seasons now? Probably not. Seems like it though.
If there was a list of the 50 best sportswriters over the next 5 years, he wouldn’t be on it.
My big issue with finding another RH bat for lefties…. is that our team should do well enough against lefties as it is. With the execption of Raul no one really needs a platoon partner when a southpaw is on the hill. It is my thinking that we should get the best possible defensive replacement for the corner OF spots to back up the subpar D we are going to get from Raul and Wilky. So be it if it is Reed. I just don’t think the extra bat against lefties helps.
There aren’t diminishing returns on scoring runs against left-handed pitching. It’s not like there’s some mythical cap of offensive production that we’d be bumping up against with Murton in the line-up. Every player has an intrinsic value, based on the runs they produce offensively and save defensively. If you have two players, one is a +10/+5 offense/defense guy, and another who is a +0/+10 guy, you’re almost always better off with the +10/+5 guy. He’s just better.
In this case, Murton >>>> Reed. The bat far outweighs the difference in defensive abilities. If the team ends up scoring 6.4 runs per game against lefties, great – that’s not a bad thing. Murton’s offense + defense combo will be better than Reed’s offense + defense combo.
Murton is really kind of like a younger Randy Winn.
How would you compare Wilkerson and Murton? They seem similar to me.
Dave…please pick up the phone and tell BB to “Make it so!”
On the Top 50 List…Not only did Neyer leave off Felix (really annoying us Mariner fans) he has to take that EXTRA little dig and leave off Bedard while putting on Adam Jones.
OUCH Rob! That’s cold hearted!
It really has a lot more to do with the fact that he is a terrible journalist and doesn’t have any idea what he’s talking about.
Pretty bitter sweet seeing AJ and Asdrubal on there but no Felix. As much as I love AJ, and hated the trade, I just don’t see him being nearly as close to his upside as Felix.
I really have to think Neyer messed up and simply forgot Felix. The guy isn’t an idiot, so leaving him off for some of the other names on there just doesn’t seem possible. Right?
I think I understand what you are saying about diminishing returns against left-handed pitching. Yet I would argue there is a lack of opportunity for playing time against left-handed pitching which would have the same effect.
We know the Mariners aren’t going to platoon Murton with Ibanez or Wilkerson so I don’t see the area for improvement. I like Reed Johnson and I like Murton but I don’t like either one of them for the Mariners. Aside it not being a good idea to plug another right hander into Safeco, in my opinion the 4th outfielder should be either a defensive wizard who could play all three OF positions or a LHB who can hit the crap out of righties. Unfortunately, we probably need both.
As you have mentioned, this team is very susceptible to injuries. Wilkerson doesn’t have good track record the last couple of years and if Ibanez gets hurt (or doesn’t hit as he attempts to play through and injury) this team can not hit right handed pitching. This is not a good thing seeing how 70% or so of MLB pitchers throw with their right hand.
Three months from now the only way we are even talking about the 4th outfielder the Mariners chose at the start of the season is if Ibanez, Ichiro!, or Wilkerson gets hurt resulting in 350+ AB’s for our debated substitute. If that is the case I’ll take a LHB and a quality glove over Murton or Reed Johnson.
@Carson(42)
No, because he also left off tons of more deserving people. Hamels, Cain, I think Lincecum is missing, etc. It’s just a terrible list.
On what planet is Cole Hamels not one of the 50 most valuable players in baseball over the next five years?
I can only assume that club control / contract status isn’t part of the valuation here?
Has anyone seen the predictions of Steve Phillips and the rest of the ESPN crew? Phillips has the M’s winning the division and 4 of the 5 experts there have them winning 90 or more games. Wow. I am speechless. Reading this site and then that one makes me laugh while simultaneously making me strangely hopeful that a few pundits could somehow alter the Mariner’s baseball universe. Sigh.
I saw that and past espn clips where Steve Phillips especially has touted the Mariners, even when the Angels were at full strength. Considering Steve Phillips’s reputation as a GM, I was a bit skeptical to believe him, but hey, if the M’s are getting national exposure, even if it is mostly based on nothing more than opinions, I’ll take it.
The trouble is, if the M’s perform as we expect — ie, based on their real talent level, not “Well, given their win total last and now they’ve added Bedard…” — then the “national exposure” will be how they choked/disappointed.
I think the funniest thing of all is Duston Pedroia at 24.
“Was Pedroia over his head last season? Yeah, maybe a little bit. But he’s only 24 and should have better years at the plate while giving the Red Sox solid defense at second base. ”
Should read:
“Is he as talented as he showed last year? No. But he’s still young, and plays for a team that gets a lot of national exposure, so this medeocre bat making a few web gems in there getting his uniform constantly dirty will get our attention as the next Derek Jeter.”
That’s total bs. Rob is one of my favorite baseball writers and a great friend to the sabermetric community to boot. You really should try reading a good chuck of his work instead of shooting your mouth off about one list.
Try not to get so worked up over one of the millions of silly ‘top whatever’ lists that come out every year. He’s not dumping on the M’s. Give me a break.
You’re right, he’s just completely ignoring them. Brilliant journalism to ignore the impact of an entire franchise, my fault.
And, if you don’t want me to get ‘worked up’ over the list (which, believe me, I’m not), then tell him to, I don’t know, put some actual thought into the list instead of completely dropping the ball and missing some of the absolute best pitchers in baseball for average middle infield and outfield talent that’s in a large market.
The fact is, him ‘revealing’ this list to us and missing, indisputedly, some of the best young arms in baseball for overhyped, undertooled players is indefensible. That’s simply the way it is, and the further you go up the national media rung, the more indefensible it becomes.
The fact is Felix has had some scary moments the last couple of years with regards to injury. Eric Bedard has no place on ‘50 best players 5 years from now’ because of his major injury concerns. There’s no way I’d bet on him. I’ll give you Pedroia, I really doubt he’ll be one of the top 50 players in baseball in 5 years. Yeah, he’s probably over-rated.
There are a few head scratchers on there, but to call him a terrible journalist because he snubbed your team is ‘geoff baker blog comments’ bad.
So, to conclude, he’s a sh**** journalist because he left off Bedard and Felix and included the ROY from ESPN fav’s Boston.
To be clear I’m not defending Rob’s list. There are some fairly crappy choices. What upsets me is the harsh judgement of a good writer, a great guy and one of the only supporters of sabermetric types in the mainstream sports media. Best not to s*** on your allies. Save your anger for Joe Morgan or Steve Phillips or something.
That’s harsh, man.
But actually, I didn’t think that Neyer even knew AJ existed, nevertheless he put him on his top 50 list! Ironic how, according to this guy, the AJ trade really was better for Baltimore on paper. Dave’s been saying how the deal is worse for us in the long run, and Neyer himself just agreed.
ESPN should have said something to Bavasi before we traded him away.
That’s fair. I am (clearly) not the biggest fan of his write-ups, regardless, but that article is just so…flawed. Every five players he second-guesses himself and says ‘could be higher, could be lower’, and, of course, I find the fact no Felix or Bedard is to be found jarring.
But, I won’t disagree with you on your point.
I will. I think Neyer acting this clueless is worse than Joe Morgan because he should know better. I’m sure Neyer is a great guy, and I don’t hate him or anything, but he consistently seems like he’s mailing it in to me, not bothering to do the necessary research to really get these things right (a comment I am by no means limiting to this piece), and I find that uniquely frustrating.
I think smarter analysis will find its way into the media because it has to, because it’s increasingly an important part of the way the teams themselves. I don’t feel beholden to Neyer or any other SABR type who hit it big and now writes crappy columns because he’s too busy to take the time to get them right (though the point about injury concerns is well taken). That doesn’t feel like an ally to me.
Nothing about him personally, here, he could be the greatest guy in the world. And I’ve heard that he used to write really insightful stuff. But as far as I can tell he hasn’t in quite some time.
I admit I haven’t read Neyer since he went to the “dark side” (i.e., ESPN’s Insider), but always loved his stuff before that. I think everyone should give the guy a break. You can’t hit a home run every time (if you’ll excuse the pun).
From May 1 to the end of the season, Pedroia hit .333 .389 .467. That’s not a mediocre bat, especially at second base.
Is this because Felix isn’t on the list? Seriously, I’d like to know. Because Scott Kazmir isn’t on it either. We all love King Felix and all his potential and his great stuff but Kazmir is only two years older, has made 90 starts the last 3 years with ERA+ numbers of 116, 142 and 130. I’d be pissed if I was a Rays fan. Kazmir is a better pitcher than Felix is right now. Five years? Who knows. Neyer certainly doesn’t have a crystal ball and neither do any of us.
Looking at Neyer’s list: He simply didn’t include anything except for “established” starters. I don’t think that approach is unreasonable. Young pitchers are notoriously volatile. Bedard is too old with too few IP, and Felix is too young with too few IP to make the list. The “odd duck” in Neyer’s group is Verlander, who appears to have passed the age when he’s likely to implode.
Pitcher CareerIP Age
Santana 1308 29
Webb 1089 28
Sabathia 1406 27
Peavy 1087 26
Beckett 1014 28
Verlander 399 25
Felix 465 21
Bedard 658 29
BEES.
lotsa bees.
Matt Murton is a redheaded Brad Wilkerson. Straight up.
Yea, they’re twins. You know, other than the fact that Murton’s a right-handed line drive guy with contact ability, gap power, some speed, and solid defense while Wilkerson’s a left-handed flyball guy who strikes out a ton, tries to draw a bunch of walks, and doesn’t cover a lot of ground in the outfield.
I mean, they couldn’t be more similar…
You forgot the redheadedness too, Dave.
Morgan should know better, too. If he played the game the way he says people should play the game he would have been terrible.
Speaking of the ESPN academy of baseball, Steve Phillips thinks we have the best defense in the American league.
Dave
Any comment on #43?
Yea – if the M’s had a left-handed outfielder who could mash RHP, he wouldn’t be a fourth outfielder, he’d be starting.
A good bench isn’t composed of guys sitting around waiting for the starters to get hurt so they can play everyday – it’s role players who have skills that complement the guys you plan on giving the most at-bats to. And, since the entire M’s starting outfield is left-handed, having a LH reserve outfielder is a bad idea.
eponymous coward,
Beltre’s first season in Seattle was awful offensively. Moreover, Beltre himself admitted that it took a long time to adjust to Safeco Field and AL pitchers.
Olerud played 920 games for the AL Blue Jays prior to becoming a NL Met.
Boone was originally a Seattle Mariner. [no, no, no]
Remember Rich Aurilla, Al Martin, and Jeff Cirillo?
#69
The more I think about it the more I realize the M’s failure to construct a quality roster is there real issue. This is not earth shattering news. This is a flawed team. Even with players available that could help them the M’s, if they were acquired they would never see the field.
currcoug, those excuses are pretty weak.
I thought the day game was on radio. oh well.
Ronnie Prettyman, huh?
The AL is the harder league, that we can agree on. I think more to the point are the players the M’s choose to sign from the Senior Circuit. Cirillo was nothing more than a bench/platoon player once he left the M’s and Martin was out of the majors for a year and then managed an OPS+ of 79 in 238 ABs with TB (in ‘03) after which he was done.
All this speaks to poor execution, akin to the Ho-Ram/Soriano trade.
Listening to the Padre broadcast of today’s noon hour split squad game, another poor first inning for an M’s starter. Felix gave up a leadoff home run, followed by two singles, but escaped with no further damage.
Kiger (sp?) hit one out in the bottom of the first for Seattle; the score is 2-2 in the bottom of the fourth.
After he settled down & showed his promise, Padre broadcasters were mulling the question of why the Mariners would replace Felix as the opening day starter, in view of Bedard’s lousy spring.
They decided it was an attempt to validate the Bedard trade.
Padres lead 3-2 in the bottom of the fifth.
It is worth noting that Aurilia and Cirillo’s stats markedly improved upon their return to the NL.
As far as I know, Murton has never hit at Safeco Field, which is tough on right hand hitters to begin with. Moreover, Murton hasn’t faced a lot of AL pitching. By the time Murton adjusts to Safeco and the AL, how much of the season will have passed?
With the questionable gambles that Bavasi has already taken to win this year, they might as well use Balentien.
Jeff Cirilio started in the American League too. And Boone struggled against National Laegue pitching for years, fortunately he changed leagues and started hammering on inferior American League pitching! See how fun this game is!
Dude, Cirillo hasn’t had more than 260 ABs in a season since though since he left here. He’s being used as a platoon player now, which seems to work for him. The guy hasn’t been able to hit righthanded piching since ‘00. He can still hit lefties. Jeff’s being utilized for his skill set now is all. It makes hit slash stats look a lot better. Go check out his baseball-reference page.
Good point, and yes, it is fun.
Is there an emoticon or a swarm of bees to encourage people to actually look up the numbers before they post?
We’re arguing about bench players again.
Also, sorry about the syntax in the last post.
With the questionable gambles that Bavasi has already taken to win this year, they might as well use Balentien.
By the time Balentien gets used to Safeco and the majors, how much of the season will have passed?!?!?!1
Won’t someone please think of the children?!?
[nope]
Oh, that’s not gonna get past the mods, bro.
[retracted previous statement]
My apologies, I just re-read the Comment Guidelines and I retract my previous statements.
Boone was originally a Seattle Mariner. [no, no, no]
Was there something else to this comment? Boone was drafted by the Mariners and played in parts of two seasons with them before the trade to Cincinnati.
A few comments in this thread have gone away in part or in whole due to not meeting comment guidelines; questions about why can be directed to me at jeffnye@ussmariner.com.
Thanks Jeff. It was not my comment, but the edit was confusing because it looked like you were denying that Boone originally played for the M’s.
I suspect he was instead insisting that references to Boone couldn’t contain baseless accusations of substance abuse. That’s usually why boone comments get edited.
I don’t mind answering people’s questions about why any moderation actions were taken, let’s just please not discuss it in the comments.
And yeah, in retrospect I should’ve been clearer about how it was edited. Sorry for the confusion.
Thanks!
I think the Cubs are sending Murton down to AAA. Listening to Cubs fans it sounds as if the team wants to keep him as a ‘in case of emergency, break glass’ kinda guy.
Wild game. Felix left after 5 with score tied 3-3. SD scored 6 in the 6th off his no-name reliever, M’s scored 4 in the 6th & 2 more in the 8th to tie 9-9. SD broke the tie with a run in the 9th, minor leaguer Greg Halman hit one out in the bottom of the 9th to tie it for Seattle.
I see Geoff Baker is blogging this game for the Times.
The ‘no name reliever’ who gave up 6ER in 2/3 was Travis Chick, he of the Jamie Moyer trade I believe.
Regarding Balentien, I was playing devil’s advocate for Bavasi. I have consistently advocated that Balentien should be the M’s starting RF.
In regards to Boone, I was quite lawyerly with my statement, but no big deal.
Cirillo didn’t hit as a Mariner vs. left or right hand pitching. It is beyond dispute that going back to the NL allowed him to continue playing.
Really? .304/.362/.426 (166 PAs) in ‘02 (his first year back in the AL) against lefties. Seems to be he hit well against lefties his first year and then lost his second year. Of course, his OPS was nearly 80 points higher against lefties (100 PAs) that year.
You can’t honestly state that it’s “beyond dispute” moving to the NL allowed him to continue to hit.
currcoug:
as suggested previously, check out his bref page. it appears 2002, the only time he had significant playing time, would like to dispute the indisputable.
Cirillo’s 2002 splits
Yes.
Also, the Kiger that hit the homerun today was one Mark Kiger, former 5th rounder of the A’s, I think. Utility fielder, right-handed, typical A’s-style prospect. He’ll be 28 on May 30th.
Wow, I am amazed you missed my misspelling of a player’s name earlier in this discussion.
TIC
Remember Rich Aurilla, Al Martin, and Jeff Cirillo?
So? I just told you there are players who’ve come to Seattle, played at Safeco, and had great seasons in Mariner uniforms out of the NL. Your argument is “oh noes, we can’t have NL players, they always crash coming here”. The possible other explanations for some players coming over from the NL and having bad seasons stem from:
- Safeco is a hard place to hit, arguably the toughest park in the majors, and
- Most of the players that are being brought over are in their 30’s and subject to declines in performance, anyway.
But anyways, Bret Boone had LESS than a full season in the AL during the two years he played here, and then spent a number of years in the NL… and somehow, I’m supposed to think 400+ plate apperances in the AL years and years ago taught him how to hit in that league for all eternity? Especially when most of the pitchers in 1993 and 2001 aren’t even the same guys he faced? And he was playing in a different park, too?
Oh, so does Jose Vidro, who improved from 2006 to 2007 going from the Nats to here, and who never played a day in the AL before coming over.
Also: how come Ken Griffey didn’t own the NL when he left Seattle, if that league sucks so badly? How about Carlos Delgado- he didn’t become superhuman in another league. How come Vlad Guerrero didn’t suddenly collapse coming to the AL? How is it Pedro Martinez improved coming over to the AL from the “inferior league”? Or is it mystical Kryptonite radiation coming from the “S” on your chest as a Mariner, and it only affects NL players not named Vidro?
Also, we’ve had plenty of players from the AL come in and crash their offensive stats, too: Scott Spiezio, Eduardo Perez, Carl Everett come to mind.
I think your argument isn’t well thought out, because it’s contradicted by a boatload of easily available evidence, and can easily be explained by the two other factors I mentioned above (Safeco sucks, and a lot of Mariners we’ve acquired would naturally decline with age). I simply don’t buy the idea that we should blow off half of MLB as trade or waiver acquisitions, simply because they play in the NL, and we’ve had some bad players. It seems to me we should realistically evaluate talent and make our decisions from there.
Wishful thinking perhaps, but wouldn’t Morse (+?) to the Cubbies for Murton be a nice thought?
96 – Chick came to seattle in the Eddie Guardado deal. Moyer netted the M’s Andys Baldwin and Barb.
Oh no, don’t start the Morse discussion again, aieeeeeeee!
*exploding head noises*
Actually, I think you guys are unhappy because the Mariners obviously don’t agree with your ideas about signing Johnson or Murton. I certainly don’t. I also think my point about Murton not adapting to Safeco and AL pitching in time to help the M’s this season is well taken.
I admit the Boone argument was weak. Moreover, that is what I get for not checking Cirillo’s splits before relying on my memory (although I could use the small sample size argument).
You blithely ignore the reality of what happened to Beltre in his first season in the AL. Beltre was only 26, and coming off a monstrous season.
Vidro sucks, and Bavasi should not have acquired him.
Griffey in the NL? Injuries.
106: Sorry about that, Jeff — I should’ve used initials in that trade proposal to ward off a potential curse.
You know, as a moderator I do sort of try to set a good example when I’m on USSM by being all nice, etc etc etc.
With that said, would you please stop making stupid arguments, currcoug?
I’m actually a really happy person, don’t judge.
No, it’s not. Nice try though.
Yes, and we could to with regards to his season and a half of at bats here (even less if you take out those 160PAs against lefties in ‘02).
A montrous season that was so far above and away of anything else he’d ever done only a damned fool would’ve expected him to get close to it again.
Well, that’s not to far off. It’s too bad he’s our DH, but it could be a lot worse.
Agreed.
marc- Thanks! I stand corrected.
Yes, I hit the nail on the head.
It’s also interesting to note, too, that saying that something is beyond dispute, apparently doesn’t actually get people to stop trying to dispute it.
You learn something new every day.
How dare people not take my words as gospel.
galaxieboi,
Thanks for being courteous and fair.
In regards to Beltre, however, he didn’t return to his average stats prior to 2004, he fell off a cliff in 2005.
Dave described it in detail:
“…Obviously, that first year was rough. He couldn’t have started his Mariner career any worse. His first two months in Seattle, he received 199 at-bats and hit a staggeringly terrible .236/.264/.357…”
http://ussmariner.com/2007/09/10/the-value-of-adrian-beltre/
Before anyone gets the wrong idea, I fully supported signing Beltre. I also support an extension.
You blithely ignore the reality of what happened to Beltre in his first season in the AL. Beltre was only 26, and coming off a monstrous season.
Sometimes you have your career peak at 25 (Beltre so far), sometimes it’s in your 30’s (Boone). That doesn’t make a categorical argument to me that we can’t acquire Player X because he’s an NL player. Jose Guillen has switched leagues MULTIPLE times, and been consistent (his big leap came playing in Cincinnati, but it was at an age where that often happens). There’s Jim Thome. Richie Sexson. Carlos Beltran. Mike Cameron. Mike Lowell. LOTS of players switch leagues without a) collapsing in the AL or b) going from mediocre to Hall of Famers in the NL.
Vidro sucks, and Bavasi should not have acquired him.
Which is irrelevant to the question of whether or not his performance IMPROVED coming from the NL to the AL- and it did, by any objective standard.
Griffey in the NL? Injuries.
Griffey spent the 2000 season healthy until the end of the season. It’s not particularly different from his 1999 season except for that.
Basically, the argument you are making comes down to having to special-case and say that being a Mariner screws you in some special way if you are an NL player, except if your name is Vidro or Boone. I don’t buy it. Martin, Cirillo, and Aurilia can all be easily explained by a) they were in middling at best players, in their 30’s and b) they came to a tough park. Period. No special pleading needs to be made that their time in the NL screwed them for coming to the AL, and we CERTAINLY should not keep from acquiring useful players under 30 because guys in their 30’s collapsed in Mariner uniforms. The lesson we should learn is “quit acquiring mediocre veterans as patch jobs and use free talent better”.
Beltre returned to his normal OPS+ numbers in ‘05 though. Check this out.
Year OPS+
‘98 73
‘99 101
‘00 114
‘01 91
‘02 97
‘03 88
‘04 163 (!)
‘05 93
‘06 105
‘07 112
Hope it all lines up.
I agree with your last statement, which is why I was so upset when Bavasi gave Cabrera away.
I would rather have Jones and/or Balentien in the outfield than Wilkerson. I would rather have Soriano and Sherrill in bullpen. I want a lot of those kinds of things, but as long as Bavasi is GM, they are not going to happen.
galaxieboi,
You would not believe the crap I took on another site for supporting Beltre through his struggles in 2005. In fact, I cited those very numbers in support of my position. Essentially, I argued that Beltre’s contract was reasonable, that his glove was worth gold at third base, and that Beltre was only 26 and would get better (which he has).
Finally, I just got through defending Beltre against those who tried to blame him for not discovering the torn ligament sooner.
I can’t believe Neyer didn’t include Mike Morse in his top 50. What’s he thinking?