Support USSM
Your donations keep us from selling out to the Man and are used on college and Chick-fil-A (Dave) and coffee and beer (Derek).Contact us
Blogads
blog advertising is good for youMeta
Reference Material
The Future Forty 3/19/09
Evaluating Defense Evaluating Pitcher Talent
Evaluating Managers
Bugs Bunny, Greatest Banned Player Ever Selected for Best American Sports Writing!
The Attrition WarDisclaimer, Copyright
The U.S.S. Mariner is in no way affiliated with, condoned or given any notice by the Seattle Mariners baseball team, who have their own website. Similarly, we have no association with the ownership group or any businesses related to the Mariners. All article text is written by the authors, all pictures are taken by the authors, who retain copyright to their works. No copying or reproduction of any content here, photographic or otherwise, is authorized. Please email us if you wish to reproduce our work.
Woo Felix Woo!
Dave · April 16, 2008 at 9:26 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Felix is ours and you can’t have him.
Tags:
Comments
-
Recent Posts
USSM uses and recommends
Author Links
Local M's Coverage
M's Blogosphere
M's Official Sites
Player Blogs
Resources
Twittah
Scariest moment of the game award: Felix sticking his hand out at that ground ball. I thought he would break his finger or something.
Yeah, he’s a keeper. And sending him out to finish off the game was a good call I think.
Felix has to be our true Ace. He has been flat out dominating this season.
80 of 115 pitches for strikes.
12 groundball outs, 8 strike outs, 7 fly outs.
I’d classify this as a “gem”.
He’s barely 22 years old. Unbelievable!
I wonder what it would cost to sign him to like a fifteen or twenty year deal. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the idea of him not spending his entire career as a Mariner upsets me so much that I think it’d be worth it. Not spending the rest of my twenties and all of my thirties fretting over whether we’ll be able to match the Yankees offer and what he’ll look like in pin stripes will add years to my life. I know it.
Total gem for the King — and, yes, kudos (for once — where they’re due) to Johnnie Mac for showing enough confidence in him to let him go out in the ninth to wrap it up.
He is a future cy young. No doubt about it.
Every game he throws at home the rest of this year should by a sellout. Felix had such a fire in him tonight, very cool to watch. I think he wanted to finish it no matter how many pitches. Awesome!
Fuck future, he could win it this year.
Felix is amazing. Just amazing. I am so happy he is a Mariner.
Interestingly enough, teams in the NHL have started doing just that over the past couple of years — i.e. locking in a guy they consider to be a “franchise” player to what might seem to be a ridiculously long-term contract. My theory is that it has something to do with the budget-planning schemes that teams have undertaken in reaction to the salary cap that was enacted at the last CBA.
If that’s the case, it may take a future CBA for this to become more commonplace in baseball — though, to a certain extent, it’s already started happening (i.e. Soriano, A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera, for example).
“Betcha wish you’d put more stock in Felix before the season, eh?”
- A. Jones
“Ouchmybody!”
- E. Bedard
This from ESPN’s recap:
Personally, I think Felix is the staff of this rotation with Bedard in it.
Dave Valle just asserted on the radio that [verbatim], “good left handed hitters, typically, will hit left-handers better than they hit right-handers”. He mentioned Alvin Davis and Tino Martinez by name. Someone, it might have been Dave or Tom Glasgow (sp?) added Don Mattingly.
Is there any truth in that at all? I’m going to go look, but an assertion that, to paraphrase, “most good left-handed hitters show a reverse split” strikes me as utter hogwash.
Sorry for the double post, but I have to say that I wish Bavasi and Co. had had more of an eye toward the future this season. I think we would be in better shape.
@15,
It doesn’t appear to be true for Wade Boggs. Check the splits here.
Boggs
Or Tony Gwynn, arguably one of the greatest lefties of all time.
Gwynn
How about Ted Williams?
Williams
And here’s Tino, in case you’re interested.
Martinez
Ok. I’m done. Triple post FTW.
Sustained reverse platoon splits are very rare. Valle doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Fine outing for Felix, obviously, but is anybody besides me at least a little worried about him pitching a CG this early in the season? I didn’t see the game (working), so I don’t know what his pitch count was, and of course that’s a consideration. I also remember his last game, when he had a ridiculously low pitch count, got blown by the bullpen, and I’m sure that figured into the decision. I’m just concerned because 1) he has a history of arm trouble, and 2) especially with Bedard out, we just can’t afford to lose him. I’m just sayin’.
I would like to see Felix as a Mariner long term but I can’t say I’m all that upset about it either way. What I would very much like to see is a good Mariner team built around him so that the M’s have a legitimate shot at the playoffs for this year and the next 3.
$300mil/20yr for Felix sounds good right about now.
Felix made me forget about everything that’s wrong with the Mariners today.
Geez, Felix, you couldn’t wait until I was actually home to watch the game to dominate?
Thanks for nothing!
Amazingly enough, if you look at Ichiro’s splits, Valle’s comment holds true.
Ichiro!
Still not “most” by any means.
Dave has noted several times in the past that Ichiro is very unusual (borderline unique) in having a consistent reverse split.
Great performance by Felix today, always good to dominate a division rival.
In other pitching news, I just read that Morrow got called up to take Bedard’s spot? So I guess the plan to have him spend a year in AA ball lasted all of a month?
Alas, I could only follow through my phone, which obviously prompted the necessary “get off your iphone!” comments at my friend’s birthday dinner. She failed to understand the significance of Felix….needless to say, we will never be more than friends.
Anyways, I think a 400 mil 20 year would be cool, having it like a football contract, with escalators every year, but to get 400 mil would mean a tone of performance based bonuses, which I’d be hella happy to shell out.
Still, this is how the King was pitching last year til the injury, and then at the end. If this goes all year and (cross fingers and knock on wood) Silva does the same as he has, we might have a similar season to last year. Add Bedard in and I am becoming too optimistic to read this site
Runs scored 77
Runs against 73
Hmmmm…. Doesn’t feel like it, other than tonight at least…
I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about where Felix will be in the future, for several reasons. 1. He is here RIGHT NOW. Who cares about the future. Maybes some day another team will steal him, but right now he is ours and I choose to forget about the future and instead watch the next great pitcher enter his prime as a Seattle Mariner. 2. Seattle has a payroll that is steadily rising. If the ownership is serious about contending, we will find a way to lock up our franchise players. 3. Take what a player says with a grain of salt, but Felix did say that the M’s believed in him like no one else and treated his family well when we were courting him, so I think he will always at least give us the first oppurtunity to hand him a deal.
I feel like Felix could win a Cy Young and a Gold Glove this year. It really is refreshing to watch a pitcher in a Mariners uniform go out and completely dominate a team. He really looks like the pitcher everyone expected him to be.
Is there a question who the ace of the staff is? At all? I don’t even want to THINK about Felix leaving. Ever.
I heard a rumor that some high rollers from Oklahoma City are interested in bringing Felix back to their hometown.
[deleted, off topic. Also metacommentary]
And Bavasi thought we needed an ace in our staff. . .
[no, we've been over this before]
Although Bavasi is a moron … I will agree with that until he is off our team … I still believe we are a better ballclub with two ‘aces’. If Bedard had not gone down already, I think we would have the best 1,2,3 punch (Silva) in baseball.
Not only would we be a force in the regular season, but if we can somehow make it to the postseason we would be almost unstoppable.
Side note:
Looks like Felix felt the heat of his choice last time, which is unfair all around.
What a truly brilliant pitcher. It is safe to say Felix is well on his way to a 20 year deal
I pray that we manage to somehow put a championship caliber team around this man sometime in the next 15 or so years. I guess it’s a leap of faith to assume he’ll stay here that long, but I have to think he’s eventually going to start thinking title. Please, baseball gods, please let us build a true winner around this guy!
Credit to Felix not only for the CG, but for knocking it off in just over two hours. Bippity Bap!
Note to newcomers –
This is our pony thread.
And a grand pony it is….
He’s just not Steve Trachsel on so many different levels.
when was he ever going to spend a year in AA?
“Morrow is just not quite ready yet,” McLaren said. “He hasn’t pitched back-to-back yet. His velocity is great, but he’s having problems with his delivery. We’re going to put him on a throwing program and get him where he throws back-to-back,” McLaren said. “We’ll know when he’s ready soon, and I see him being back fairly soon.”
why can’t he just have felt right last night, unlike the game in B’more?
I seem to recall that Griffey always used to say that he himself hit lefties better than righties, cuz his southpaw dad pitched to him when he was a kid.
Not true, though he isn’t bad against LHP.
I would sell the rights to at least one of my future children if it meant we could lock this guy up as a Mariner for life. Seriously. Watching him pitch is transcendent.
Amen, I’d get a second mortgage to guarantee his Mariner-for-life-dom, as long as I could put a “no eating like Miguel Cabrera” clause in the contract. What a gem…this guy IS Mariner baseball. Sorry Raul.
Honestly, he might have felt right last night. I just hope he went back out to the mound b/c he felt right (like you said) instead of b/c everyone went buckwild after he took himself out last time. The kid is young and I could see him making wrong decisions.
It’s tough to know for sure. But – wow what a GEM yesterday, this guy is really something else.
Dave,
Felix is clearly better so far this year. Why?
@6 That same thought ran through my head at least once an inning last night. Seriously, whatever it takes, lets get the King locked up for at least 10 years.
My opinion regarding why Felix is better:
1. Learning curve.
2. He reported to camp in the best shape of his career.
3. Mel Stottlemyre (?)
I saw him in AZ in March and knew then he was going to have a great year.
PS…Calling Morrow up was a mistake. His control hasn’t improved a bit. It’ll cost us a few games before McLaren figures it out.
Do you think a 15 year 325 million dollar contract extension maybe pushing it?? Seriously just have it increase over the 15 years, and with incentives of course.
46, 48
I think Felix had an injury last year that affected his pitching … so far he hasn’t reached the 200 innings mark and has pitched I think 30 games in both of his years.
He started last year HOT (remember beating Dice-K in Boston) then I think the injury bug got him.
This is what I’m worried about. Also after Felix came back from that nagging injury note the amount of HR’s he gave up last year: 20 + in 30 starts …
Seems like that was happening to Bedard in the preseason. To sum it up I think if Felix is healthy we’ve seen a good hard look into what he is capable of.
Also, yeah if Morrow starts walking people right off the bat USSMariner here I come!
To review:
“Bavasi made a stupid move” – OK
“Bavasi is a moron” – not OK and will get your post edited and/or deleted
C’mon, guys, you know better.
Auburn, take a look at Hardball Times stats on Felix from last year to this year. I think you will be surprised….
Jeff
I have no problem with that rule, and will abide – I am just curious as to the difference. Just started posting on here recently …
I’m not sure I’d agree that Felix is clearly better. The results have been there, mainly because he’s doing a really good job of stranding runners once they get on base, but that’s not really sustainable.
He’s still going to have a road bump or two. He hasn’t made The Leap yet. He’s still just awesome, and not the best pitcher ever. When he makes The Leap, you’ll know it.
I have no problem with that rule, and will abide – I am just curious as to the difference.
It’s an adaptation of a pretty widespread principle that’s well-established on the internet. Comment on the action (because that’s all you actually know anything about), not the actor (that’s a personal attack).
Mike beat me to it!
Dave, that is what I noticed when compared last year to this year. Add to that the lower HR rate and the higher IFF rate and really Felix isn’t doing anything better when it comes to things he has control over. Regression to the mean?
55 / 56
Fair enough – but I think the Bavasi list is too long!
I don’t know if he’s clearly better either. He started out last year extremely dominant against the A’s and B’sox; and then went down to injury. After the injury he had some issues that could very well have been from the injury, no?
The start this year was very similar to that, with the bonus of not having the injury.
Either way, I like what I see and very hopeful he’ll make “The Leap”. Starting (just starting) to realize what the Twins must have felt like when Santana was scheduled to start; and that is a great feeling.
Add to that the lower HR rate and the higher IFF rate
What’s the thinking on Infield Fly rate? Is a high IFF rate skill or luck?
What seems to me to be different in Felix this year is that he seems a lot more comfortable out there, and he has a pitching rhythm going that I think hasn’t been there before, at least for the long haul. I think you used to see it in spurts, but now he’s consistently rhythmically pitching throughout the game. He looks good!
It’s all experience for the King … the more he sees what works and what doesn’t the better he gets. His raw talent is off. the. charts.
I think only a few pitchers right now have the potential he does … maybe Fausto Carmona / Fransisco Liriano any others you can think of?
I’d rather have Felix over those 2 anyways …
This game was supposed to be televised up here, but the Jays game on before it ran way long and I actually missed almost the entire game because Felix was so fast.
Wait just one second here… personal attacks are out now?! I am so out of here.
I was in class last night and missed the whole damn game. Felix can make it up to me with his no-hitter next time.
My thinking is Felix ceiling is higher then anyone in baseball right now. Once he makes The Leap we are talking Pedro circa 97-02 dominance. Stupid Good.
Other young pitchers in the AL with high upside include Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, and Philip Hughes. I believe Felix has the highest upside of any of them.
What Felix is doing different this year? Significantly more efficient with pitches (3.49 pitchers per plate appearance so far this year versus 3.72 in 2007), plus a less pronounced tendency to generate ground balls (2.04 GB/FB ratio versus 2.77 in 2007). The result so far is an opponent’ OPS of .637 versus .750 in 2007. He’s faced a good cross section of the opposing offenses, too (LAA #1, Tex #5, Balt #10, Oak #13), so it’s not like he’s been facing patsies.
HamNasty…
Good comparison, in my opinion. To look at either of them as physical specimens, you wouldn’t necessarily guess that they have/had one in a billion, platinum-clad natural pitching talent, but that seems to be the case. Remember when we couldn’t beat Pedro? EVER? This is what I hope to see from Felix after The Leap…futility spanning YEARS from other AL teams (and the hated Padres) in their efforts to score more than a run in a single game against him. I’m giddy! I think it’s that too-rare ability to pitch a shutout even without their best stuff that sets guys like them apart. After The Leap, I think Felix will officially be in that territory for good.
good to know things are as they should be.
from Fox:
“King Felix goes all nine as M’s double up A’s”
SacBee
“A’s can’t stand up to ‘King Felix’”
Inside BayArea:
“A’s bow to King Felix”
That is scary … Pedro was as dominant pitcher as there has been in the Majors …
If Felix takes it to that level, we have to bring in real talent around him and sign him to 20 years
I think Hughes has more upside than Felix, if only because the injury bug is less of a risk for Hughes. Also, Hughes’ curve ball is disgusting, I think comparable to Zito during his three very good years. But Felix’s slider is
But comparing the two is like saying do you want the 911 Carrera or the 911 Turbo when you’re trading in your VW Jetta (Jarod Washburn) and you are keeping your Yugo in the garage, just in case everything else breaks (Cha Seung Baek). Dude, your getting a Porsche, it’ll be ok.
First of all I couldn’t disagree more…Felix is and will be regarded a better talent that Hughes … no offense to the 12-6 curveball … but look at Zito now.
Also I think you are missing out on the fact that Fausto Carmona and Liriano are really the only pitchers in Felix’s class right now.
Nice to see that chucklehead Olney on an espn podcast calling Bedard “the new Rich Harden.” I might throw up. Think Felix thoughts…think Felix thoughts…
From ESPN article last year:
FELIX HERNANDEZ:
We had to postpone that salute after Hernandez got hurt. But when the polling finally commenced, guess who got almost as many votes (12) as Santana? Yeah, it was The King, even though he’s sub-.500 lifetime (18-19), has made fewer career starts than Joaquin Benoit and turned 21 only four weeks ago.
THE REVIEWS: One assistant GM spoke for the universe when he said: “Hopefully, his elbow trouble is no big deal, because he is the best young pitcher in a long time.” … “Definitely the most electric combination in the game of stuff and ability to pitch.” … “Best pure stuff in the game, and it’s not really close. You pay and hope that’s the night he throws the perfect game.” … And one more thing, said an AL GM: “He seems like the great hope of that entire [Mariners] franchise.”
Let me clarify before everyone claims Felix as Pedro Martinez. Felix will need to come into 100% of his full potential for that to happen. A lot has to go right for him to be that dominate. The three factors I see are health, a defense, experience.
I know a lot of things have to break right…he has to be as physically and emotionally sound as Pedro was during that whole period, and may have to contract the services of a luck-bringing Dominican dwarf just to make sure. But the comparison is still apt…if/when he makes The Leap, I really believe he’s in that super rarified air.
Only caught the 4 outs of Felix’s work last night, but I did see one thing that I’d been looking for from him, at least in the ninth. He was throwing his curve (I think its his curve, anyway) for strikes in the bottom half of the zone. I’ve always been frustrated that he doesn’t throw it more, especially to lead off hitters and the finish off hitters. The break is so sharp, but it comes in at fastball-speed for a lot of pitchers. I see more swing-and-miss with that pitch than any other, plus more flat out freezes. If he can continue to locate that pitch, and feel confident with it, I would not be surprised to see some rising K totals.
Call me biased if you want to, but I can’t think of a single pitcher in the game right now that I’d rather have on my team than King Felix.
FUNNY- FROM WIKI
Hernández has been given the nickname King Felix, a title that matches the moniker of NBA phenom LeBron James. The U.S.S. Mariner weblog invented the nickname in July 2003, when he was just starting out in the minor leagues.[5] Former Mariner Joel Piñeiro said that after Hernández arrived in the major leagues, his teammates sometimes teased him about the nickname by calling him “Queen Felix”.[6] Meanwhile, team CEO Howard Lincoln instructed the club’s broadcasters to avoid the nickname, to reduce the pressure it might put on Hernández.[7]
Who do you think wrote that Wiki entry?
@35
peavy, young, maddux/wolf
That coming from a guy who’s watched a lot of Haren and (well, less) Harden.
I knew the M’s have a 5 game winning streak against the A’s (going back to last season) but I didn’t realize that the current streak of 6 wins in a row in Oakland is the most ever.
We’re also credited on Wikipedia as coming up with “Princess Willie”.
No mention of ponies yet, though.
Hard to tell…a Michael Snow has the majority of the edits, but that doesn’t prove he wrote that part, and I don’t see any recognizable USSM usernames among the contribs. Oh well, I dig seeing it in there nevertheless.
The difference with Pedro and Felix, is that Felix has the physical size to last, where Pedro was too small to be throwing that hard, and I was always waiting for his arm to fall off.
I know Zito doesn’t seem like the typical steroid guy, but isn’t it interesting that his velocity has fallen off so much the last couple of years and the A’s and Giants both swear he’s completely healthy?
Either way, the fact that USSM is credited with coming up with the nickname King Felix is probably one of the most EPIC things I have heard in a while.
Good work!
No, the most epic thing regarding USSM is that Dave’s pitching analysis got handed to Felix and had some effect. In, you know, real life. In comparison to that, Wikipedia is very small potatoes indeed.
Hard to tell…a Michael Snow has the majority of the edits, but that doesn’t prove he wrote that part, and I don’t see any recognizable USSM usernames among the contribs.
If you know how to read Wikipedia “diffs” you can see that I did add the nickname to the article. The bulk of the text is my writing, certainly. My favorite contribution, though, is not actually visible there – it’s this: Type “King Felix” into Wikipedia’s search box, click “Go” and it takes you straight to the article. (Fortunately, there are no historical kings named Felix or it would have to be disambiguated.)
Wow, Mike, very impressive! I’m not a wiki-wonk so I didn’t want to speculate further, but it was clear you put a lot of work into it. Thanks for the tip about the King Felix pipe…how cool! Keep up the good work!
“at age 14 in a tournament near Maracaibo, Venezuela. Fuenmayor recommended Hernández to fellow scouts Pedro Avila and Emilio Carrasquel, who were impressed with the youngster who could already throw 94 mph.”
really??? is that even possible??
That’s what they said, at least. (There’s a footnote at the end of the paragraph that gives you the source for the information.) As with any radar gun in baseball, who knows? I’ve noticed that the readings they put up on the Safeco scoreboard can be a couple MPH higher than what shows up on mlb.com’s Gameday.
When I was a rookie “Domer” for the team, I sometimes ran the speedpitch machine. Yeah…not accurate. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Safeco ones aren’t calibrated either.
See, that’s why everyone thinks Ibanez is fast: they point the pitching radar at him and he’s doing 4-5mph when he’s just standing in the outfield.
(Or maybe Moyer left his metric radar behind. Would be a nice rehab gift for Bedard. Oh la la).
I’m waiting for Felix’s apotheosis, which will occur in the course of a 54-pitch perfect game, featuring zero strikeouts, just 27 miserable ground ball dribblers to third base off of that crazy curveball. Whap whap whap. I think he could do it.
See, that’s why everyone thinks Ibanez is fast: they point the pitching radar at him and he’s doing 4-5mph when he’s just standing in the outfield.
(Or maybe Moyer left his metric radar behind. Would be a nice rehab gift for Bedard. Oh la la).
Actually, I think it’s the radar gun the State Patrol uses on I-90 out by North Bend.