This ratio seems remarkably variable for most players.

The one thing I’d quibble with is the idea that Dave’s post started with the idea that a bad HR/FB presages or is correlated with bad BABIP. Both metrics are variable, and the latter has much more to do with LD% than if FBs are creeping over the wall or not.

I think we’re in agreement on the broad point though – who knows though, maybe further investigation will produce some parameters in which HR/FB really is a great diagnostic tool. We pretty clearly haven’t found such parameters yet, however.

If you want to disagree with something posted here, folks, that’s the standard for how you do it. Well thought out, with specific reasons for the disagreement and examples to support those reasons.

Good post, firemane.

While I think your attempt at finding a metric to identify cliff-ness is good, I think the actual stat you selected is terrible, for the very reason that you brought up when noting why 2008 must be discounted for Vidro.

HR/FB probably works well for POWER HITTERS. But, players who typically don’t break 20-HRs per season have *ROUTINE* swings in HR totals that are utterly unpredictable. The upper number is simply too small and variable to rely on the conclusions.

Someone else noted that it is “possible” for park effects to have major impact on HR totals, also.

This does not mean your analysis of Vidro is wrong (or right). But, I definitely think a look at isolated power would be more likely to avoid the inherent weaknesses I see in the HR/FB methodology. (Barry Larkin ranged from 7 to 33 HRs during his career, so I’m betting his HR/FB ratio was all over the place).

While I think it is worth exploring, I still have doubts based on your graph, which shows that Vidro’s BABIP has *NOT* suffered in conjunction with his HR/FB rate. If I’m starting with the theory that HR/FB is a ‘tell’ for BABIP, then I wouldn’t jump for joy if the first case I’m looking at to prove this shows zero correlation.

Don’t get me wrong. I think it is a valid arena to study. I just don’t think the data you’ve gathered so far is particularly indicative of causation.

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On the subject of how often you see bounces? My perception is “regularly”. I’ve had incredible success in fantasy leagues by betting on bounce backs after career bad years.

Mike Lowell would be a near perfect example of a guy who crashed for an entire season, (don’t know what his HR/FB was in 2005 – but with only 8-HRs, I’m thinking it couldn’t have been good), and two years later is 5th in MVP voting.

#44 While I agree with your general point, the Giants have some hope, but only in the low minors. And I would pay money to watch Lincecum and Cain. (Well, in theory I guess, since I don’t actually do that.)

…would probably bite if Sexson could drag his numbers up to something presentable. But then the M’s wouldn’t want to get rid of him…

That was kinda my first reaction, too.

Thanks for this analysis. It’s the kind of simple, straightforward rule of thumb thing that’s extrememly helpful, that I could never, ever come up with.

-spend 400k promoting somebody and ‘hope’ for luck blowing one of his ‘cans of corn out of the park’, rather than $3 million and have to ‘depend’ on it.

He was a bad buy, probably a decent guy… Overpaying for immediate need based on the ‘perceived’ value of a veteran. I don’t see him earning that $3 million bucks. We need to make a move ‘now’ while there are good deals, before Boston runs away with the east and B’more and New York start looking to make up ground. June/July will be too late and we’ll make another big-ticket purchase or blow too many resources on an old, established player. Address the popping rivets before the panel comes off the hull.

-spend 400k promoting somebody and ‘hope’ for luck blowing one of his ‘cans of corn out of the park’, rather than $3 million and have to ‘depend’ on it.

He was a bad buy, probably a decent guy… Overpaying for immediate need based on the ‘perceived’ value of a veteran. I don’t see him earning that $3 million bucks. We need to make a move ‘now’ while there are good deals, before Boston runs away with the east and B’more and New York start looking to make up ground. June/July will be too late and we’ll make another big-ticket purchase or blow too many resources on an old, established player. Address the popping rivets before the panel comes off the hull.

But onto a much happier thing–Felix Day!