Game 22, Orioles at Mariners
7:10. Cabrera v Silva. They sure have been talking up Silva’s contribution, haven’t they?
This lineup…. ugh.
CF-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
3B-R Beltre
DH-B Turbo, Professional Hitter
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
RF-R Bloomquist
SS-R Betancourt
Yikes.
(added:) Fun fact: in the AL, the #5 hitter hit .284/.355/.470 in 2006 (which I happen to have handy). Vidro managed that back in his peak years.
21 games into last season, the M’s were 11-10 too. It’s natural to look at mirroring last season as good, and certainly, over .500 is good. But there’s also a belief that the M’s last year were competitive until they swooned badly, as if there were two teams, and for a while, the bad one showed up, and if only they could keep those guys from taking the field they’d have kept winning at a good clip and won the division.
I understand why you’d want to think that, but it’s as silly as pretending that any arbitrarily selected group of wins was an aberration and they’ll stink because that stretch wasn’t representative.
Being as good as last year’s team isn’t good enough — it’s why they went out and got Bedard — they wanted to (as they saw it) shore up a weakness, and prevent a similar losing streak.
But here’s the thing, and I’ll use a coin flipping example I’m stealing from a professor. If I asked everyone to go do a hundred coin flips, and said I didn’t care if you faked it or not, I’d be able to tell with pretty reasonable certainty who faked them, because they wouldn’t have really long streaks in them. People who fake the results keep the streaks really short.
When the team’s losing, of course, we look for reasons why – do they look lost? Ill-prepared? And sometimes there are reasons like that. But often, like a pitcher looking for a flaw in their delivery they can correct, it’s often little more than rationalization (”Ah! My hat brim was too clean! Of course! … Yay, I threw a quality start! That must have been it!”)
Anyway, for their 22nd and 23rd games, last year’s team took two games from the White Sox. I’d love to see them repeat that.
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As if Vidro hitting fifth wasn’t enough, now we have Willie! playing right. Yay for roster construction!
i think are AAA lineup could out hit this pathetic so called major league lineup
Gas was just opining that Silva may just be the best free agent signing of the off-season. Not by the Mariners, mind you, but in all of baseball.
I guess Wilk is still hurt. How much of a downgrade would Norton be in right? I would rather have him hitting than Willie.
How much of a downgrade would Norton be in right?
If you thought Ibanez’s outfield defense was bad…
[ponies]
Wilkerson’s hamstring is still tight, and according to Drayer he is nursing a few other dings, as well as fighting the bug that’s flying around the clubhouse.
Rick Griffin claims that Typhoid Willie isn’t responsible for all the sickness, but I have my doubts.
yup. that’s me. ask anyone, and they’ll talk about my pessimistic & vindictive nature.
If anybody here thinks RBI are a useful stat, I would instruct them to take a look at Big Papi’s projected line (.188/.303/.318) and note that he’s on pace to drive in 132 runs. Hitting on a team with a .377 OBP sure works wonders.
Preaching to the choir, I know.
You realize that those who believe in RBI also believe in clutch hitting, don’t you? And remember, Big Papi is a Clutch Hitter (TM)! So naturally even though he is not getting many hits, he is getting them “when they count.”
weak
Speaking of RBI, I gagged through a bit of Joe Morgan on ESPN today. He talked about team chemistry, saying it was important because you play differently on a team where you like your teammates. If you’re just out there to do a job, all you’re thinking about when you come to bat and there’s a man on, is getting an RBI, because that helps your individual numbers. Whereas (pretty sure he didn’t use that word), if you’re a team guy on a team with chemistry, you go up in that situation thinking you need to get the man over. You take one for the team instead of thinking about yourself.
I knew ARod’s home runs were selfish, but I didn’t realize getting RBI was equally selfish. This chemistry thing is a lot more complicated than I thought.
Anyone want to guess the LOB stats tonight for batters 5 thru 8?
You learn something new everyday. I guess runs hurt chemistry, or are born out of a lack of it? I wish Joe were here to clarify.
Teams with good chemistry end every inning with a runner on third.
Dave Valle noooooooooooooooooooo
Ugh Valle again.
Stuck in Chicago as I am, I was watching the Cubs game. The lineup they ran out tonight (standard except for Cedeno at second and Derosa in left for Soriano) featured 8 players with OBP over .400. Rich Hill, clearly not so much. They are clicking because Soriano is out, and it has nothing to do with chemistry. All of these guys are seeing pitches, getting deep in the count, and getting on base. It’s amazing what that does for your offense. [subliminal message to Richie Sexson - hit more like Derek Lee]
Times like these make me glad I don’t have a TV.
Detroit scored 11 runs in the 6th against Texas. They lead 18-6 in the 7th.
You mean to say that professional baseball players are able to perform at a high level without some nebulous form of camaraderie spurring them on?
I knew ARod’s home runs were selfish, but I didn’t realize getting RBI was equally selfish. This chemistry thing is a lot more complicated than I thought.
Well yeah, it’s all about knowing your role. If you’re a clutch hitter, then your role is to drive the guy in and pick up the RBI. If you’re not a clutch hitter, your role is to give yourself up with a productive out and move the guy over so the clutch hitter batting behind you can knock him in. And so forth and so on.
Likewise for relievers. If you’re the closer, your role is to get the save. If you’re not the closer, and you come into the game witha greater than three run lead, your job is to give up enough runs to let the closer come in with a less than three run lead so he can record the stat.
FYI – Thomas deal with the A’s has hit a snag of sorts. Another team has made an offer…
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-thomaswavering042308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Carry on. Brian Roberts annoys me.
Come on, there’s a link button and everything.
Sorry
K Silva!
On pace for 27 Ks
“Nothing but spades and clubs… everything in black!”
ugh
Silva dealing early..looks like a generous strike zone though.
Silva’s been eating his Wheaties, it seems.
Detroit scored 11 runs in the 6th against Texas. They lead 18-6 in the 7th.
So they clearly spent the season’s first couple of weeks saving them up. I just don’t understand why they unloaded them on the rangers…
(BTW, how weird is it that Guillen is playing 3rd these days? Cabrera’s value takes a bit of a hit as a 1B/DH though, no?)
Where is Blowers? Does anyone why he’s gone, I missed the pregame so sorry if they told us.
If the article I read about Silva being able to eat 4 4×4’s from In ‘n Out is true, he probably ate about 3 boxes of Wheaties.
Just don’t swing guys….at anything.
You learn something new everyday. I guess runs hurt chemistry…
I guess that explains the whole “solo HRs kill rallies” notion too. How you score matters more than how much you score. Come to think of it, that would also explain why Pythag is wrong too, since it only accounts for how many runs you score or give up.
Man, this is way more complicated than I thought.
I don’t really get the gist of this post. Especially the coin-flipping example. Last year’s team was streaky, and the starting pitching was bad. This year’s team will probably be streaky, because its best hitters aren’t patient hitters. But the starting pitching’s better.
Last year’s team was 11-10 at this mark, without Bedard (and mostly without Felix, too.) This year’s team is 11-10 at this mark, basically without Bedard or Putz. The comparison should end here. If, 20 games from now, this team has the same record as last year’s team, then there’s cause for concern. But right now, it makes sense to me that they look about the same.
Actually, it’s kind of hopeful. A couple of days ago someone said the Mariners’ five key players are Bedard, Felix, Putz, Beltre, and Ichiro. 40% of those players have been hurt and Ichiro’s in a slump. And we’re still 11-10. I dont’ think there are many teams in the AL who could lose 40% of their key players and still compete.
This team should only get better as the season progresses.
Ichiro getting back into form, nice to see.
Unless you’re Ichiro.
Gift #1 from the Orioles defense.
Jones would’ve… oh.
Melvin Mora looks like he’s perpetually smelling a fart.
Fun with fangraphs: I noticed the Tiger-Ranger game tonight. The Tigers hit 99.9% win probability in the 6th inning. In the 6th!
They had 16 runs at the time, and by the 7th when they had 18 they hit 100%.
Beautiful small ball. This is exactly what should happen with Ichi on base. Doesn’t even require another hit.
Putz is in the dugout?
He goes to the bullpen in the later innings.
44 – Putz won’t be pitching in the 2nd inning. He can sit where he damn well pleases. Also, coming back from injury as he is, maybe he isn’t in line to pitch 2 days in a row.
I swear, the M’s mantra is “if you’ve already scored one run, don’t even worry about the remaining at-bats.” It was exactly like this last night. Ichiro gets into scoring position, they score him without really trying to get anything else done, and Beltre completely wastes an at-bat for the third out.
#43
I would prefer if people got hits while Ichiro was on base.
42 – Really? 100%? That’ a shame.
What I love about baseball is that you’re NEVER 100% guaranteed to win a game, until you’ve won the game. It’s not like football, where the players walk off the field with time on the clock. There is no clock. I love that.
I think that’s preferential treatment…get down in the bullpen where you belong.
Breadbaker Says:
How exactly did he do that? By swinging at a strike?
Got a decent little slide show of Felix from last night. I was in section 333 so it’s the best I could do with my camera…lol. Thought you guys might like the pics.
http://s16.photobucket.com/albums/b47/npthree/Mariners/?action=view¤t=8d7ecb20.pbw
Is it just me or does Silva remind anyone of Chris Bosio?
Link button! Link button!
Sigh. It’s just that it took a reasonable amount of work to get those formatting buttons there working, and it hurts to see them go unused. I know, it’s silly.
Paging Frank….
Detroit up 19/6…guess they needed some Texas pitching to warm up on.
sorry The King Slideshow
This is me using the user friendly link button!
Is MLB.com on the fritz for anyone else? It brings up the viewer window, but simply will not load any game. Arghh!!!!
51: By not so much as looking at Cabrera’s stuff. As we learned last night, pitch counts matter.
Dave is just toying with Valle.
Yayyyy!!!
Here’s my “ponies” comment for the night – Did you guys stock up at the local QFC on Silva Hater-Ade? Come on, cut the guy some slack on his birthday. Dude is getting it done so far this season, no complaints as of yet….
Dave N.: He was the only right hander to wear his hat like a lefty.
Dave V.: Was he right handed?
Silva!!! Looking good so far!
Is Dave aware that the trivia questions aren’t solely for his amusement? Or maybe they are, I may have missed a memo.
Seriously. He’s 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA. He’s pitching good this season.
Totally useless stat department…
The Mariner offense seems designed to score runs with very few hits. Or at least it seems that way this year, with Ichiro scoring in an inning where he is the only baserunner, and other games where all the runs were on homers.
So I just checked hits per run for all AL teams.
The M’s have 1.78 hits per run this year. The only AL teams with fewer hits per run are Cleveland at 1.73 and Chicago at 1.53.
I’m not sure what that means.
JerBear- My mosaic is. But i just got a 64bit OS and am coming up with the 64bit string error. Any ideas USSM?
Is there any place that shows historical BABIPs? I’d love to know who has posted the lowest single season BABIP.
For those who want to hate on Silva, just remeber we can always just let him go.
I here that Weaver is still available…
He’s not.
Silva has been good however the magic 8-ball says “unlikely to continue so enjoy it now.”
I don’t understand who’s “hating” on Silva.
Well good, then there is no temptation for Bavasi.
This isn’t going to be helpful, but mlb.com has to be the most frustrating website I visit regularly. Just when I figure out how to view video highlights they change things around. I think it’s already happened three times this year. I don’t understand why they couldn’t have come up with something workable over the off-season and left it alone.
Hey, throw some strikes out there! This game is way too slow!
Oh, wait, the innings already over.
Weaver is a Brewer.
71 – good one, although he isn’t anymore.
Wise words from the man called sealclubber253.
RE Silva: He’s posting a ridiculously high strand rate. That’s gonna come back to earth, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.
Dave Sims just accused Daniel Cabrera of “attacking the strike zone”.
Up is down.
Damn you Markos! Plug your servers back in.
Dave Valle is so dumb.
Yes! Yes it is always nice to get off to a good start with a team, to show them you can play.
Because otherwise, who knows what would happen!
“You see that new guy? He’s only 1-4. He must not be able to play.”
“I hate new guys too.”
Silva’s role is to eat innings (and Wheaties, and probably half the pre-game spread, just to help Felix stay in shape). He’s doing just fine. Overpaid, sure, but he’s not really one of the problems. Happy Birthday, Carlos…
It would be pretty tough for Cabrera not to attack the strike zone that Runge’s got tonight.
4 K’s, and only a few questionable ones. I don’t like to hate on Silva, but he looks pretty good so far.
I see 2 O’s getting tossed before this one is over.
Wow, 4 12 Pitches in a row by Silva. Consistent. Too bad Cabrera is getting off a little easier with a few less pitches thrown.
If Silva gets into a jam, maybe he can just eat his way out.
Sorry, had to get into the “Silva is a fat guy” jokes.
Holy mackeral, watching the game on a monitor close to the speakers it’s painful how huge the volume differences is. It’s painful.
More Silva Fangraphs fun:
His K/9 is around 3 which is below average.
K/BB is league average
His GB rate is going down while his FB rate is rising.
Not a recipe for continued success.
Jose Lopez….bastion of patience…
92 – Hatah
Nice piece of hitting, Jose.
Well, Lopez got some pitches in that AB. Finally.
Let’s figure this out…you’re the manager of the O’s with Daniel Cabrera on the mound…
Does it really benefit you at all to convince an umpire that his strike zone is too big?
From where I’m sitting, Silva has looked good all season. But then again, I don’t overanalyze every little thing he does.
That shot won’t help Cabrera’s twitch.
Beltre better get these guys in before the rally killers (aka 5-8) come up.
Wow does Cabrera only know how to throw fastballs. Good work Jose. Glad to see he got a ball on his first pitch. You know he takes those alot.
Dave wrote up a nice post about the different approach Silva’s taking and why it’s effective — I’m not sure why anyone would think that we’re scraping for reasons that he should be bad, or… I don’t understand.
Hargrove yells at TV: BUNT! BUNT!
WHEEEEEEEE!
Tough play for a baserunner. I saw one at RFK last year that led to a 9-5 putout.
Ugggh! Here come the LOB stats.
Vidro DP gets a run in…
Time for a “Professional” hit Turbo…
Time to win some fans back big guy!
That’s a DH, son. That’s the player whose only job is to hit.
Wheels Vidro!
@107: WTF – I read your post as the play was happening. Is the HD broadcast THAT far behind?
A Joe Carter RBI if there ever was one.
well, good contact?
Raul’s lunge made me wince — it looked like he was going to tear his groin and hamstring all at once
Paul L: I think that was just a sage prediction.
Well, that sucked.
Oh what coulda been…
Paul L- No I just did the quick numbers in my head and realized the probability of a Vidro DP with bases loaded is about 95%. Pure speculation, but was anyone surprised?
bases loaded and NOT OUTS…and they get 1 stinking run!! Way to go “5-8 Rally Killers”! How many is that….6 LOB … nice.
So, question about that RBI by Vidro. Bases loaded, no outs, what if that ball hits Beltre on the basepaths there? Beltre’s out right? But does the run score? Anyone know the answer?
sorry. NO OUTS.
oh well, 2 runs may be enough.
Run Expectancy was 2.38 when Turbo came to the plate. M’s came away with one run.
Here comes New Orleans???
Run Expectancy was 2.38 when Turbo came to the plate. M’s came away with one run.
I was also pretty remarkable that they could have three straight hits without scoring a run. Man, XBHs would be nice.
But he’s a veteran hitter.
They said Adam Jones missed the Super Bowl, wasn’t he in the winter league playoffs?
Raul wooooo?
Aubrey Huff != Yuni
Ibanez with dumb luck. That was ridiculous.
That’s the play, when the ball falls at Raul’s feet so he can just reach down and pick it up.
Why did AJ go back to 2nd?
Adam Jones, I could have caught that.127: I believe on Super Bowl Sunday he was getting his man bits checked out in Baltimore.
as far as I can tell, my expressing some slight skepticism that Gas’ notion that Silva is already the best free-agent signing of the year makes us all Haters.
Blowers has a horrible cold; he came into work today, taped something for the progame and then they sent him home, and asked Valle to stick around.
but he has exciting new hair.
132, because anyone but Manny catches that ball.
Funny….Huff blew the stop sign but Jones saw it and went back to 2B. Had Huff stopped Jones would have been meat.
Silva keeps up that strand rate. Hurrah dumb luck!
If misplaying balls so they hop right into your lap is a skill, Raul has MAD SKILLZ!
That was a really good relay… Raul might have “it’s better to be lucky than good” tattooed across his shoulders…
What is Silva’s strand rate?
LL still dead eh? Bah.
132, it was because Huff ran through the stop sign…Jones saw the stop sign and ran back to second thinking Huff would stop.
Oh god. LL is down, watching this game only seems half right.
hey, it worked for Uecker.
142 – I was just going to ask Dave/Derek if they were getting increased traffic because of it?
Are you guys?
Joe’s Tracer shows no strikes in the zone?
:Surprised Face:
134: they said he missed going to super bowl because of turn and cough. Why would he have gone to super bowl if he was in the winter league playoff?
135… wasn’t that like over 100 posts ago. And they deleted my post for questioning your belief in the gasman.
That was bad base running by Adam Jones, no reason for him going back to 2nd.
Anyone else having issues with the Comcast HD feed?
Tough to tell.
Yuni don’t run pretty but he runs good.
Yeah, Mr. HD-Comcast, he dead.
And now alive again.
It seems to be working again now.
That’s the way the ball sometimes bounces. Luck. Skill. Whatever. These guys aren’t computers.
“They” deleted your comment for making some unkind assumptions about msb, which is not kosher.
of course, I wasn’t expressing belief in Gas.
argh. I wish I could decide if Cabrera was getting himself out of jams, or if the batters were getting them selves out of them.
Put the beer button up, that ought to offset the extras tonight!
121 – If the Ball hits Beltre. Beltre is OUT. All runners go back to their original Bag and the Batter is credited with a hit and awarded first base.
The only Caveat is that if the Umpires rule Beltre lets the ball hit him intentionally (so as NOT to get a double play) they have the right to rule a double play. No runs score.
Manute Bull catches that
Silva’s LOB% is here. Which you can see is considerably higher than his career average and league average.
What the hell? Ballgame completely misjudged that ball.
Carlos Silva would like some real outfielders for his birthday.
160. looks like he’s regressing
So does Muggsy Bogues.
Mark Lowe might be my favorite player now. That is grit and determination hiding in a locker for 5 minutes to pie someone.
is it just me, or does Baker’s phrase here imply that Morse’s labrum tear was an incidental or previous injury (”But an MRI revealed he had dislocated his shoulder, and a torn labrum was also discovered.”) as opposed to an injury that occurred when the shoulder subluxed?
121 – If the Ball hits Beltre. Beltre is OUT. All runners go back to their original Bag and the Batter is credited with a hit and awarded first base.
The only Caveat is that if the Umpires rule Beltre lets the ball hit him intentionally (so as NOT to get a double play) they have the right to rule a double play. No runs score.
Thanks, MedicineHat. I figured it might be a “runners return to base” deal.
LL should be coming back soon.
Manute Bull? Never heard of him. is he related to this guy?
he said on the pregame that he almost gave himself away by laughing when JJ sat down at his locker and instructed the assembled press to ‘form a wall’ to protect him from any attempts by the pen.
LL is back up.
Did Valle just compare Silva to Cabrera? What the hell?
no, he meant Manute BOL….. This dude.
121- What if the infield is up, and the ball clearly passes the infielder (all infielders) trying to make the play, then it hits the runner.
What’s the call in this case?
They’re friends, but not related as far as I know. Haha. Kudos on the Super Punch-Out reference.
Oh I know, I just like to use Punch-Out references whenever I can fit them in.
uh oh, Silva hurt.
Somebody bring him a sandwich!
Anyone read the Manute Bol article? It is worth it…
LL is still down for me. ??
I’m pretty sure Bald Bull has no friends. He’s eschewed all personal relations to perfect his craft and to be a dick.
Oh hey, look there’s a game on…
LL is fading in and out.
Former friend, I should say. He used to be a decent guy. King Hippo on the other hand…
The Cubs just used Jason Marquis as a pinch-runner. Uh…
Sean Green shuts the door after Silva departs. I hope Carlos is not hurt bad. Too many injuries in a young season… though Wilkerson’s hammy is not such a bad thing
Anybody actually watching the game, can you tell us gamecasters what Silva’s injury looked like, or commentators said? Arm, leg, belly?
174 – Once the ball passes the infielder it is just a live ball unless, again, it is kicked or touched intentionally by the runner. Play would continue. Similar to a throw that hits a runner.
186…hammy tightness. He didn’t even leave the dugout. I think hes fine.
186 – he needed a early slice of b-day cake. Honestly, he looked at the dugout, the ump pointed and they came out to look at him. He walked off, stayed in the dugout. Nothing major from the looks of it.
That could be the worst offensive inning we see all year.
You are surprised by this?
Looks like the offense is back to it’s old tricks. No patience at the plate. Kenji is hopeless. They need to bring Clement up from the Minors
Yes, It was against Cabrera in a inning he should never reach cause his pitch count should be in the 100’s, no matter how big the strike zone is. Also thought Joh and Sexson had gotten their ugly AB’s out of the way and were back on track. No comment on Boom Boom.
187-Good answer. Though it rarely happens, it is a play that causes lots of confusion.
RR-S time!
Not a bad outing for him on his birthday, though he gets an ND.
I think there are more people on this site than at the game.
Clement needs to stay in Tacoma.
The 5 thru 8 hitters are absolutely freakin’ awful. It’s pretty sad when Richie F’n Sexson has the highest BA of the bunch at a whopping .208.
Kenji’s BABIP is barely above .200. Those hits will start finding holes. Everything else he’s doing is right on track for him. He’ll be fine.
Do “productive outs” strike anyone else as an oxymoron?
Is there a stat for productive outs? I would really like to know.
Cabrera averaged 5.5 innings a start coming into this game. Must be a nice brake facing these guys.
Bring up Reed and sit Vidro. Move Ibanez to DH, and voila! Stuff would start falling in order.
Sad offense. We’re getting ready to lose the game we picked up on Anaheim and Oakland yesterday. Texas continues to crash and burn in awesome fashion though — losing 19-6 to Detroit tonight.
At least in the 9th we will have our 3-4-Black Hole hitters up…
ESPN tried the productive outs thing. It’s pretty meaningless. Unless the person creating those productive outs has some kind of mystical influence on those hitting before him to become better hitters.
Do I want the M’s to win, or Sherrill to come in for the save and give me some fantasy points? Pffft, LET’S KNOCK A FEW DINGERS!!!
Oh, goodie. George is warming up and we have Ibanez leading off. I guess we’ll start the inning with a 0.297 RE then (1 out, no body on).
Johnny Mac: “Oh crap, it’s the eighth, hurry and get Morrow or I will have ruined it for everyone!”
Morrow’s changeup is greatly improved.
No doubt about it,
Adam Jones got abused.
That a boy AB!
I like watching “more than one pitch” Morrow.
Vidro & Thunder. Now that’s an Oxymoron.
Well… here’s one free out.
This would be a good spot for Norton, except we wouldn’t want to upset the veteran.
An opportunity for payback, after the O’s stole on in the 9th in Baltimore…
said the optimist.
NO WAY!!!!!
or not
Holy Guacamole, a hit!
C’mon Pepe!!!
No Cairo?
Was I the only one expecting Vidro to hit into a DP ?
Gamecase just froze for the love of god what happened
Hitters 5 thru 8 tonight:
AB H R RBI BB SO LOB
12 0 0 1 5 0 8
These guys had the table set for them and absolutely blew it. I will give Vidro credit though, he did get the lucky RBI – however, it was’t too far from being a double play.
Mike G,
The Mariners’ catching coordinator, Roger Hansen, thinks Clement is ready to catch in the big leagues:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/360219_mfarm23.html
From the same article:
I agree with the scout. Clement will be a great September call-up and I’d like to see him break camp with the club next year. I don’t pretend to know much about battery chemistry. I just think it might be better for the pitching staff to have the continuity with Kenji/Burke for the rest of the year.
That is a fair statement.
On the other hand, it would be nice to have Clement’s bat and plate discipline immediately.
On the other hand, it would be nice to have Clement’s bat and plate discipline immediately.
It won’t matter. This team isn’t likely to win anything this season, so why waste Clement’s service time?
I will take Hansen’s word over the unnamed scout.
If the team isn’t going anywhere in 2008(as you believe), Clement could use this season to develop his knowledge of the M’s pitching staff, as well as opposing hitters, base stealers, etc. Ditto for getting to know AL pitching as a hitter.