Random Things
Woo Felix Woo! I love Felix Day. I wish it could happen every day.
I stuck up a post on Fangraphs this morning in which I compared Jeff Keppinger to Tony Gwynn. I expect someone to read it and think I have lost my mind, but Jeff Keppinger is a good player, and if it takes a bit of hyperbole in a comparative graph to make that point, so be it.
Reports are circling that the A’s are considering signing Frank Thomas to replace Mike Sweeney. While I’m still on the fence about whether to sign Thomas or not, this pushes the needle a little bit further towards the affirmative. We’ve been telling people all spring long that the A’s are better than everyone thinks, and adding Thomas to their line-up is probably a one win upgrade – that win might come at our expense, and I’m not sure the M’s should be sitting around watching their divisional competitors improve.
Speaking of divisional competitors, Jered Weaver got bombed for the Angels last night. I’ve taken some shots from some people over my stance on Weaver being a middle of the rotation guy and not anything close to a frontline pitcher, but I’m guessing they won’t be posting their Jered Weaver Update now that his ERA is up to 4.50, his strikeout rate continues to fall, and there are no results to build their results based analysis on. Pity.
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What is the news on Wilk? I think he may be just about done, so we should….well, look up.
(ps- if you can’t figure this out, it’s time to go back to kidnergarten)
Or trade for Matt Murton. He’s way too good to be stuck in the minors (or ride the pine until Soriano comes back). The Cubbies could use a left handed reliever. We have a young one in AAA who has had success in the majors they might like.
Clarification: Are you saying the Mariners should sign Thomas to keep the A’s from getting him?
wonder if his decision will come down to whether the A’s offer more playing time than the M’s could. It doesn’t seem worth it to offer an extra year just to keep him away from Beane.
Speaking about RANDOM THINGS – perhaps everyone should know that Safeco Field might have a new name by the end of the year. In financial news – Liberty Mutual is buying Safeco Insurance in a 6.2 Billion dollar deal that I saw this morning on both Bloomberg.com and the online edition of the Wall Street Journal.
The deal is expected to close by the end of the third quarter of the year – possibly near the end of the regular baseball season. Don’t be surprised if Safeco Field gets a new name by next season.
If I understood Dave’s fence sitting correctly, Thomas instead of Vidro in the lineup would be a good upgrade, but his reservations were mostly that if the M’s made that move it would make them less likely to make an even better move, like finding a LH and moving Raul to DH.
I looked back at Dave’s preseason Wins analysis, and it had Vidro as something like +0.41 at DH and Raul at +0.75 in LF. Based on that, wouldn’t Raul be a -0.25 DH, and moving him there a net loss of 0.16 wins over what we thought Vidro might provide?
At any rate, I think that if the M’s are willing to pull the plug on Vidro in April, they ought to be willing to pull the plug on league-minimum Thomas in June if a better option came along. I don’t really know if they’re willing to do either.
RE: 6
I don’t think it’s as simple as subtracting 1 from .75. He’d get back some win shares from (and I’m assuming here) the subtraction Ibanez got from his “Defense”. All we see are the final numbers in the table, we don’t see all the numbers that go into the final numbers.
Dave:
I disagree. he’s a better option than Vidro yes, but really, if a change is to be made, the best change is Sexson/Ibanez/Norton splitting time at 1B/DH spot, Wilkerson to LF, and Balentein/Reed to RF. With Cairo or Vidro getting walking papers, I don’t particularly care who, though Cairo hurts the team less on the left side of the infield defensively.
Also, this allows proper scheming of Sexson against certain pitchers and allows Ibanez to get plenty of days off so he doesn’t get beat up.
Thomas won’t be league minimum. There will be demand from multiple teams.
He’ll be league minimum for this year plus some guaranteed money for next year.
As for the Liberty-Safeco deal, they’ve announced the name of the field won’t be changed. It’ll still be the Safe.
@8
There are plenty of better options. Dave is trying to deal with ones that the Mariners might actually implement. Bonds isn’t one of them. A rotating platoon between 1B and DH isn’t one of them. Wlad, for now, isn’t one of them.
If Vidro doesn’t get walking papers with a Thomas signing, the Ms are left with four defensive statues on the roster (Thomas, Ibanez, Sexson, Vidro). Not to mention Morse lurking on the DL.
I suppose that’ll give Cairo and WFB lots of pinchrunning opps.
Or it’ll give them lots of time for benchwarming duties during the elongated opposing rallies fueled by all the “bloopers” falling in.
Is the new Future Forty coming anytime soon? I am bristling with anticipation.
IIRC Dave’s Future Forty is a first-of-the-month sort of thing, so he’ll likely post a new one at the start of May.
I hear the M’s are kicking the tires on Frank Thomas. Confirm/deny?
I don’t think it’s as simple as subtracting 1 from .75. He’d get back some win shares from (and I’m assuming here) the subtraction Ibanez got from his “Defense”. All we see are the final numbers in the table, we don’t see all the numbers that go into the final numbers.
But the final +0.75 for Raul factors in both offense and defense, which is the value of WAR analysis. If we move him to DH and replace him with a replacement level LF, we’re -0.75 in LF. And I think my math’s off anyway (the hazards of doing math while talking to a 6-year old…). If the preseason numbers are right, we’re 0.66 (not 0.16) wins worse with Raul at DH than Vidro. Dave, is that right? Is Jose Vidro (with help from Pepe) a better DH than Raul Ibanez?
If that’s the case, then it seems like moving Raul to DH isn’t the path to upgrading the team. Unless I’m missing something, it looks like this (I’m assuming we find a +1 WAR guy somewhere):
Current
DH: Vidro +0.41 WAR
LF: Ibaneze +0.75 WAR
total: +1.16 WAR
option 1: sign +1 WAR DH to replace Vidro
DH: NewGuy +1.0 WAR
LF: Ibanez +0.75 WAR
Total: +1.75 WAR,
Gain/Loss: +0.59 WAR
option 2: sign +1 WAR LF and move Ibanez to DH
DH: Ibanez -0.25 WAR
LF: Other NewGuy +1.00 WAR
total: +0.75 WAR
Gain/loss: -0.41 WAR
option 3: sign +1 WAR LF to replace Ibanez (keep Vidro at DH)
DH: Vidro +0.41 WAR
LF: Other NewGuy +1.00 WAR
total: +1.41 WAR
Gain/Loss: +0.25 WAR
So, if Frank Thomas is a +1 WAR DH (not sure, but assuming), then option 1 seems like a fine start. If we can later do Option 3 as well, then whoo hooo.
Of course, option 3 is predicated on relegating Ibanez to the bench, something the team almost certainly wouldn’t do, and given his value at SafeCo (Liberty Mutual?) Field, maybe shouldn’t do, at least against RHPs.
Well, lots of speculation and probably more bad math on my part. Bottom line, signing Thomas is probably a good thing. Tell him he has a month to earth the starting DH job and promise to trade him if he isn’t going to keep it (Bavasi is good at treating players with respct that way – I think it could be a point in the M’s favor negotiating with Thomas).
He can have Cairo’s spot on the roster, since the whole “we need a backup for Willie so we can use him more” thing isn’t really working out.
Doh!
Now I see my mistake. Move Raul to DH and you recover his negative defensive rating!
Gah, stupid me. Sorry.
Clarification: Are you saying the Mariners should sign Thomas to keep the A’s from getting him?
I’m saying that the M’s should be slightly more interested in signing Thomas if they know the alternative to not signing him is that he ends up in Oakland. You don’t make the decision based on that, but it moves the needle a little bit.
I looked back at Dave’s preseason Wins analysis, and it had Vidro as something like +0.41 at DH and Raul at +0.75 in LF. Based on that, wouldn’t Raul be a -0.25 DH, and moving him there a net loss of 0.16 wins over what we thought Vidro might provide?
I’m not sure how you got here, but no. Ibanez’s +0.75 WAR value as an LF includes a -1.5 win penalty for his defense in LF. If you move him to DH, that penalty goes away, and then you just combine his offensive value and the positional adjustment for DH. I don’t have the spreadsheet in front of me, but if I remember correctly, Ibanez would be something like a +1.25 WAR DH.
Since Ibanez in LF and Vidro at DH gave you a total of less than 1.25 WAR, you could literally fill LF with any random replacement level player you wanted and the team would be better. If you got a real major leaguer, the improvement gets significant.
Alright, a ‘random things’ post. Is this a good place to bring up the Roberto Clemente special on PBS Monday night? I’m sorry to keep harping on it, but it was really good.
It really made me think hard about how some in baseball (both IN and fandom) treat and/or judge players from other cultures or skin color. The whole show is available online on PBS.org if you want to check it out.
Wilkerson to LF, and Balentein/Reed to RF
By what twisted calculus did you end up with that alignment?
On another Random note…will the name of Safeco Field change now that Safeco Insurance has been sold to Liberty Mutual?
20 – No. Read above.
That answer is in an earlier comment in this post.
To be fair to Weaver he got bombed by Boston in Fenway. No shame in that.
10 bucks says that Jered Weaver is the next Jeff Weaver. The elder brother had his moments where he looked great, too…
I wouldn’t mind a Liberty Field, although honestly that name would seem more fitting in a place like Philadelphia with the historic connotations. Wouldn’t it be fun if naming rights could be traded?
Two random questions–we have to be a little worried about Felix’s LOB%, right? He’s looked great (other than two innings last night), but that has to start coming down soon, unfortunately…we can hope it lasts, I suppose.
Also (prompted by thinking about Beltre’s appeal last night), does anyone think the base umps really have a better angle to call check swings that the plate ump. I’ve always thought he’s got a better chance than anyone to get it right. Thoughts?
I’m not sure what Beltre was thinking last night.
Well, think about the angle the base umps are at. They can see the barrel of the bat because it’s pointed right at them (first base ump for righties, third base for lefties).
As long as getting Frank Thomas doesn’t include a guarantee for next year I’m all for it…
It already seems like they are ether too stubborn or stupid (probably the former) to realize that Ibanez can’t play defense…
The ideal is to put Raul at DH and get a defesive, speedy, LF player…
But if they won’t do that, we might as well upgrade at DH even though TURBO had the game winner last night…
And really, we NEED to get TURBO out of the starting line-up, or his option for next year will kick in and we will have the same problem all over again…
I wouldn’t say I’m worried about his LOB%, I’d say I’m thankful he’s been a little lucky this far.
What I AM a bit worried about is that he’s not inducing nearly as many groundballs as usual this season. It’s probably just early season small sample size theater, but it definitely bears watching.
Jeff Weaver had an okay start to his career because of a very deceptive delivery. He hid the ball very well when throwing to a RH hitter (sort of like Washburn and LH hitters). When the league starting picking up the ball better after a couple years he was never the same. Watching Jared Weaver pitch I see a similar fate in his future. Especially if he loses velocity like his brother did.
By the way, Washburn is better at hiding the ball than either Weaver. Plus, he’s left handed which is why if he wanted to he could pitch with some small amount of success for years to come. Not at nine million dollars a year though, more like six.
joser:
Well, if Reed is up instead of Balentein, then Reed in LF and Wilkerson in RF. Otherwise, Balentein is a better in RF than Wilkerson.
Yes, I know its its unlikely, but it is more likely than Bonds or Lofton or even Frank Thomas. The best option, in my mind at least, is sign Bonds, then sign Lofton, then move Ibanez to DH (Wlad or Reed in RF/LF), then Thomas, and then Mike Piazza to DH.
From 6-4-2, an Angels blog: “And by the way, Weaver, turning into your brother isn’t very nice.”
They have no idea.
Wow, that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I mean option 1. sign Bonds, option 2, sign Lofton….and then so on down the line.
Was “results-based” analysis used in a pejorative sense?
Great piece on Keppinger. It’s amazing the Royals didn’t think he was useful enough for a roster spot. Any chance that, at 28, the increased pop this year is for real? That ISO has ticked upward each season…
Dan Johnson available now…. Do we take Johnson over Thomas?? Left handed hitting DH that will come at the minimum…..RELEASE CAIRO….keep Vidro for pinch hitting and to spell Sexson at 1B sometimes
I can see that Thomas is not yet as done as Vidro, and his bat at DH (while Vidro becomes the professional pinch hitter he really ought to be). That would all work very well for this year.
But my understanding was that Thomas would insist on a two year contract (the probable loss of his 09 option was the reason for all the outrage in Toronto) and I’m not so sure he could help the team very much come 09, particularly not a team that plays in Safeco.
Considering the fact that USSM and LL spent the offseason proving that the Ms are not yet good enough to really contend, would it be wiser to lay off for now, not get tied up with a further declining Thomas in 09, and look to free agency or internal solutions for next season, when the team will be potentially better?
I know they’re in win-now mode and all that, but… I just don’t buy it.
What are the odds Keppy keeps SLG around .475 as a major leaguer?
For what it’s worth, Pecota projects Keppy to be basically an average offensive NL shortstop/second baseman long range. An average of the big 5 publicly available projection systems thinks the same for him this year.
It’s easy to see why blue collar Cincy fans have a huge man crush on him given his lack of Ks and ability to make the routine play. That said, a few less doubles and he’s really just an excellent platoon candidate or a stop gap middle infielder possessing a unique blend of offensive skills appreciated mostly by Beanites and a decidedly bland glove.
In other words, it’s tough to project Keppinger as an all-star IMHO.
39 –
As Dave pointed out at Fangraphs, his ability to make contact so frequently is very rare. If the walk and K rates stay steady and he can maintain gap power while hitting .320 – and play a passable SS – that’s pretty damn valuable.
He’s also never had a full-time gig, and wasn’t projected for one this year. I’m not sure how useful those projections are now that he’s likely to get 450-500PA.
My sentiments exactly.
Look, I’m certainly not throwing in the towel this season. I think we have an outside chance at our division. But signing a declining Thomas, who will no doubt want big money, is a mistake, even if he ends up with the A’s. I’m not as informed on our young guys as others, but why not give some of our youth a chance? The lineup I’m hoping for:
C – Kenji
1B – Sexson (Clement?)
2B – Lopez
SS – Yuni
3B – Beltre
LF – Reed
CF – Ichiro!
RF – Wlad
DH – Raul
Bench: Vidro, WFB, Norton, Burke, Wilkerson
Pitchers: Bedard, Felix, Silva, Washburn, Bautista starting. JJ, Lowe, RRS, Corcoran, Rhodes on the ‘pen.
Just my thoughts.
Just my thoughts.
As long as we’re throwing out random things:
Did anyone see Scott Miller’s on line article about Richie’s slow start and Frank Thomas’ availability at cbs.sportsline?
My Favorite sentences: “There is no question this is a lineup that needs a heavy jolt of caffeine. Jose Vidro (six homers in 147 games last season) is the designated hitter, for crying out loud. “
If is a small word with mucho significance. The question wasn’t whether a shortstop OPSing roughly 100 pts better than league average was valuable. The question was, “is Keppinger truly that guy”.
He’s had 2154 minor league at bats that suggest his current “gap power” might not be sustainable.
Sentinel,
Wlad is hurt now, but even so, time in AAA will be good for him going forward. The same can be said for Clement. If we want him to be our catcher next year, he needs to work on catching, not playing 1B.
Signing Thomas isn’t a mistake, and he’s surely a better option than Vidro. But as you pointed out moving Raul to DH and getting a real outfielder is much more paramount. What I’d do is sign Lofton and stick him in left. I’d keep Wilkerson in right for a little longer but call up Reed to be the 4th OF. If Wilkerson still isn’t hitting in May, then you think about Wlad and Reed splitting time out there.
leave us not forget Norton, too.
some new photos/footage in that one; if you ever have a chance to see ‘Clemente’, the one from about a decade back, done by Black Canyon– that was the best so far, I think.
Cairo’s spot on the team is, and always has been, just terrible…
I’m just glad we didn’t lose any players because of him…glad Jimerson cleared waivers and that we got Dickey for a non-prospect…
Hopefully we don’t lose Baek when Bedard comes off the DL…I’d imagine Baek or Corcoran are the ones to go back to Tacoma, but with Baek being out of options, it might have to be Corcoran…too bad…
arbeck,
I’m not denying that Thomas is a better option than Vidro, but he is certainly not a better option than moving Vidro to the bench, Raul to DH, and getting a quality fielding LF.
I just want to start giving our youth a chance.
Felix indeed felt like crap last night: “Hernandez, battling a cold, gave up two runs in seven innings even while saying, “I felt dizzy every inning out there.”"
the Reds have fired Krivsky and hired Jocketty.
and Scott Miller thinks that Frank Thomas could be a threat to get Richie going.
I just want to say that Daves banter back and forth with the guys over at baseball analyst site was one of the highlights of the pre-season. Glad to see Weaver’s results starting to show what Dave thinks of him as a picher.
Sentinel,
I’m all for playing the young guys, if we aren’t sacrificing too much future value for limited returns today. Moving Clement to 1b now would do that. Almost all of his future value is based on the fact that he can catch. Sacrificing that value for one or two wins this year just isn’t worth it.
Jason Churchill’s farm report this morning suggested that Clement is much improved behind the plate this year. I would like to see the M’s go back to the five man bench when Bedard comes back, bring up Clement, and let him catch at least twice a week. On his off days he could DH a couple or three times a week. That would get his bat in the lineup and stop Vidro’s option from vesting.
OK this seems like the place to ask this:
Read the PI’s Clement piece, and it got me thinking about our catchers systems wide.
Is this assessment accurate?
1)Johjima- last year here, does he have any trade deadline value?
2)Burke- Probably will stay to help the rook figures things out.
3) Clement- The future, hits for power, swing situated for Safeco, according to the P.I. is progressing as a catcher.
4) Rob Johnson AAAA ball player, is losing playing time behind the plate to Clement, now playing OF and 1b too- future back up?
5) Moore- Trade bait or will move if he starts to hit more.
How does the depth here compare?
Agreed. However, there isn’t a single shred of evidence that the Mariners are willing to consider this option. Acquiring Thomas might be a way to make the team better and at the same time get us out of Vidro’s awful 2009 contract.
#52-
The assessment is spot on. What do you think about the Mariners bringing up Clement and making him Washburn’s personal catcher to start with ala Maddux and his personal catchers during his days with the Braves.
Clement either needs to be starting in Seattle or in Tacoma…he’s not going to get better on the bench or as Washburn’s boy…if he’s going to be a regular back there for years, he still needs to improve…
Kenji will turn it on soon…the team has bigger issues than the Catcher position right now…leave Clement alone in Tacoma…
Then Clement could start for Wash and Bedard. And if you’ve kept up with Clement’s progress on the web and in the papers it’s been said by Mariner officials that he has learned more about catching between games he actually catches. The only thing left is to put everything he’s learned into use in games. Plus, he can probably learn a lot more at this stage from Joh and Burke by watching them rather than playing everyday in AAA. If the primary worry is how he calls a game the pitches could be called from the dugout, as they were at the start of the Dan Wilson era.
I’m not sure how you got here, but no. Ibanez’s +0.75 WAR value as an LF includes a -1.5 win penalty for his defense in LF. If you move him to DH, that penalty goes away, and then you just combine his offensive value and the positional adjustment for DH. I don’t have the spreadsheet in front of me, but if I remember correctly, Ibanez would be something like a +1.25 WAR DH.
Yep, I completely forgot to remove Raul’s terrible defense. I realized that as soon as I posted. I’ll blame it on lack of coffee and take a mulligan. So Raul’s a better DH than Vidro. I’m actualy glad I screwed up because that makes a lot more sense. Well, probably a moot point anyway, as the M’s don’t seem to consider Raul as a serious DH candiddate, at least not for another few years. But how much of that is because they have Vidro and how much of that is because they think Raul’s defense is okay? Last year, with Vidro’s shinny AVG and him being their only “two-hole” hitter, I think the M’s viewed Vidro as an essential part of their offense, so they couldn’t move Raul to DH. But this year, Lopez is their two-hole hitter and Vidro’s AVG stinks, so is a different story from the M’s perspective?
If they gave up on Vidro, would they think they need another DH (e.g. Thomas), or would they seriously consider installing Raul there and finding another corner outfielder? I suppose Wilkerson’s struggles probably make the ladder less likely, since the M’s could be worried that tney might already need another corner OF (and with Wlad injured…).
I agree with the idea that Clement needs to be playing 5 games a week. What I’m not sure of is in the Kenji vs. Clement debate how much weight to put into Clement’s left handed bat at Safeco. Kenji seems to be more more of a gap hitting line drive hitter.
From watching Clement last September I would say he has the sweetest looking swing in the organization. As far as the left handed Safeco benefit, look at how much it has helped Ibanez.
1)Johjima- last year here, does he have any trade deadline value?
Sure, but if the M’s are trading him at the deadline, it means we’re toast in the AL West. They haven’t replaced Bill Bavasi with Paul DePodesta, last I checked, which is basically the only way I see a contending M’s team trading a productive veteran in order to play a rookie. Even if Johjima got injured and was “Wally Pipp”‘ed by Clement just killing the ball after a callup, I think they’d STILL try and figure out a way to keep both of them around.
Since this is a random things thread let me go real random on everyone and give this link to a story about Wade Boggs. If you haven’t read this before, its one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen.
Messed up the link – here it is
http://tastybooze.com/2007/04/the-origin-of-boggs/
FYI, Safeco is saying the stadium will remain named “Safeco Field”.
Baker is reporting that Mike Morse is likely done for the season. That dive he took on the 13th ended up tearing the labrum in his left shoulder.
The f***** sucks for him. Finally gets a real shot at staying up an extended time and pop.
I caught some flack for this over at ESPN boards… but I think that the M’s should put Ibanez to DH, slide Vidro to the bench and negate any chance of his option kicking in. Bring up Reed and stick him in LF for the better defense option… plus I doubt he would do worse than Vidro at the plate.
Also, how well does AAA stats compare to MLB stats. I mean, if he’s batting .300 down in Tacoma, how well would that project to Seattle?
So, basically two scenarios, one being more likely than the other, both would improve the team, but neither will likely happen.
Scenario #1: Sign Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas as a DH, and bench Vidro.
Scenario #2: Drop Cairo, bring in [insert young LF's name here] to play LF, move RAUUUUUL! to DH and Vidro to bench.
I wonder if anyone has Bavasi’s address. I want to write him a letter.
Maybe you can send an e-mail to the M’s. I think it’s e-mail address is on the website. Hey, it’s better than nothing.
I say everyone on this site who believes in benching Vidro, moving Raul, and bringing up Reed flood their e-mail address with pleas to do so. Maybe it will happen if we all rise up.
For anyone that feels like writing them an email, here is the page:
Make your voice heard!
I just sent mine. Join with me, and let us make our voices heard!