Rainiers Game Thread
Dave · April 28, 2008 at 6:58 pm · Filed Under Mariners
No M’s, so listen to the Rainiers play New Orleans starting… just about now.
Robert Rohrbaugh vs Joselo Diaz. And yes, Jeff Clement. Still.
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80 Responses to “Rainiers Game Thread”
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And over on FSN, the Beavers are playing the Oklahoma Redhawks – featuring lead-off man Jason Ellison and the walking corpse of Kevin Mench.
… and Shawn Estes is pitching for the Beavers!
Joined up in the 3rd, just in time to hear the big inning. Very nice.
Curto during a pause in the action “The Mariners off tonight, starting a roadtrip in Cleveland tomorrow, Ichiro’s favorite city….”
Wlad’s back. Two HRs tonight.
Um. Statement?
More like “wind blowing out, crappy pitchers throwing in”
Remember Wlad’s a hard pull RH hitter. Safeco is not going to be kind to him.
Mind you, I’d still rather see him in RF than Wilkerson, but that’s not a very high bar to clear.
The wind is blowing out to RF. Wlad hit his first jack to left center, his second to left field. That’s against the wind Joser.
Why is it that the Rainiers are never on TV? The Beavers are on all the time.
Nice to hear about Vlad. Bring him and Clement up and we are a better team by default.
Clement is 2 for 3 so far.
…why is he in Tacoma again?
Someone mentioned in LL that if Clement isn’t brought up until May 8th the M’s have his rights for another (similar to the Evan Longoria situation earlier this year). I’m paraphrasing, but if that’s the case I can live with Clement in Tacoma for a couple more weeks.
And Reed is 3 – 4….. cant forget him since he’s been in a few discusions lately.
I would take any of the 3 outfielders in Tacoma right now over Wilkerson. Jimerson included.
Well, make that three.
An inside-the-park HR, no less.
Wow. Just. Wow.
Reed is 4-5 now btw. Wlad has two homers and the AAA bayn have managed to bring 15 across. this is gross. I think I am a Rainers fan now, There is no reason for us to have such a poor offense.
I don’t care if one was in the park. Three jacks is three jacks. Wlad is back. I’m not saying bring him up today, but we should probably keep an eye on him.
Its so frustrating to see these guys contribute in Tacoma. Ownership has shown before that they are not afraid to spend if it gives them a better team on the field. Why not eat some contracts if it leads to a better team on the field?
And remember, I believe this year features $3 Tuesdays microbrews at Cheney!
Decent priced beer and lots of offense at the ballpark.
Things like home runs and multi-hit efforts from your power guys.
Tacoma baseball is sounding better all the time. If course not the cheap beer, at least a real offense to watch.
Yeah.
On another note…..a dodgers fan made fun of me today and said we have three people worse than andruw jones and juan pierre today. I almost cried.
Go Clement! I got to watch him here at school! With Ian Kennedy! Yay!
Being insulted by a Dodger fan. Ouch.
This is what the once-proud Mariner franchise and its fans have been reduced to.
Damn you Bavasi, McLaren, Armstrong. Damn you all.
Wlad reads USS Mariner
I still don’t think Andruw finished. Unless we find out he’s 4 years older or something.
Isn’t it obvious: Bavasi is hoping to trade him so he can win in 2008.
Joser,
Wlad has the kind of power which transcends Safeco.
So, I’ve been going through firstinning.com this morning looking at Clement and Balentien’s BIP data.
Good gravy, Clement is hitting the tar out of the ball. He’s not going to sustain a .429 BABIP rate, but then he doesn’t need to be hitting near .400 either. He’s also spraying the ball around a little more compared to last year.
Balentien is still pulling the ball quite a bit. His LD% is nice, so we should expect his BABIP to be better than .217. Until last night Wlad was hitting something awful at home which doesn’t bode well for a move up the I5. Wet, heavier air at sea level and all.
Anyways, Dave and Derek can speak to how far these 2 are along better than I can but Balentien still scares me re: his pull tendancies. Clement, even based upon a month’s worth of data, looks to be making a pretty good case for a call-up and some playing time.
The M’s have made it clear their intentions by re-signing Johjima so it’s time to figure out what to do with Jeff. There are some decent sluggers available for pretty much free in the PCL and IL (Russell Branyon…), but the best option might be just down the freeway in Tacoma. However, I totally agree with Dave in that Clement should NOT be brought up and put at first base. There’s no reason he can’t DH though.
Galaxieboi,
What will the M’s do with Vidro? I can’t imagine him riding the pine all summer.
Cut him?
Wlad has the kind of power which transcends Safeco.
No, he doesn’t. He’s not some 40+ homerun guy. I like Wlad, I really do. But we’ve got to be realistic here.
What will the M’s do with Vidro? I can’t imagine him riding the pine all summer.
Even the M’s will bench him if he doesn’t pick it up at some point. There’s no way they cut him. Not with the PA option this year. They’d open themselves up to a s***storm from Vidro’s agent and maybe the Player’s Union.
23 – you want someone hitting awful at home, check out Clement. Clement’s slg% at home is .361. On the road it’s .976. He just doesn’t drive the ball at home – though it does make me want to catch a road game, and see the beast that he is away from Cheney.
Balentien hit a ball to the track in RF last night and his first HR was into the teeth of a very strong wind. Tacoma, especially in April, is probably a great proxy for trying to hit in Safeco as a RH hitter. Adam Jones had a .601 SLG % at home last year for Tacoma, which is one reason people were so high on him. Balentien was much better on the road last year, but he still put up an .800+ OPS at cheney. I’m not worried about Wlad’s power in Safeco, actually.
Clement’s extreme splits this year, and his sub .800 home OPS last year worry me a bit. Of course, as a lefty, he’s probably going to hit for more power in Safeco than in cheney.
Clement isn’t hitting awful at home. He’s hitting 306/457/387 at Tacoma. That certainly pales in comparison to his away stats but it’s still nothing to sneeze at. He’s got a LD% of 28 at home and is getting on base. He’s just hit all 5 of his homeruns on the road.
Wlad is batting 241/281/690 at home AFTER his 3 homeruns last night.
None of this is that big of deal, because according to every park effects study I’ve seen Tacoma is rough on hitters. The PCL in general is a hitter’s league, but Tacoma may be a more extreme pitcher’s park than Safeco.
And I don’t think you should be judging Balentien’s future power output based on one game’s worth. Balentien may hit for more power than Clement, but Jeff is almost certainly going to hit for a higher average and draw more walks.
I have no idea what this could even mean.
I doubt it, really; Vidro’s performance has been enough reason to cut him, and a grievance based on the vesting option would really have about zero chance of succeeding.
I think they’ll probably dump him at some point during the year; I’m not in the camp that says he adds value as a pinch hitter, and he can’t even pinch run or add value as a defensive replacement or anything.
Fine, it’s not awful, but it’s clearly totally and utterly distinct from the way he hits on the road. He’s a GB-hitting, opposite field using slap hitter at home, and the mother of all TTO, HR-hitting slugger on the road. I don’t get it.
Yes, tacoma is a more extreme park, given league context, than Safeco. This is, in fact, why I brought it up. If Wlad can hit for a decent amount of power in Tacoma (and we’ve now got 1+ years of data that says he can), then he’ll probably be able to do so in Safeco. Nothing earth shattering, but say in the .480 SLG% or something. It’s an important point to bring up when someone argues ‘he’s righty, he’s gonna get KILLED by safeco.’ OK?
Who’s judging Balentien by one game? I’m saying look at his splits from 2007 and 2008. They exist, he’s hurt by his home park, but he doesn’t turn into a totally different player in the way that, oh, Jeremy Reed and (it has to be said) Jeff Clement do.
In the majors, 5 years down the line, I think Clement will definitely have a nice OBP. Whether he’ll hit for average, or rather, MORE average than Wlad? I don’t know. In their careers, Wlad/Jeff have more or less identical averages, and Wlad’s younger. Considering park and handedness and all, I’d *guess* that Clement edges him out, but it’s not like it’s a slam dunk or anything.
26/29: Dude, it’s 36 at-bats.
Even the M’s will bench him if he doesn’t pick it up at some point. There’s no way they cut him. Not with the PA option this year. They’d open themselves up to a s***storm from Vidro’s agent and maybe the Player’s Union.
It worked for Toronto with Frank Thomas.
Fine, it’s not awful, but it’s clearly totally and utterly distinct from the way he hits on the road. He’s a GB-hitting, opposite field using slap hitter at home, and the mother of all TTO, HR-hitting slugger on the road. I don’t get it.
No, he’s not. His GB% is actually higher on the road and his LD% is higher at home.
I’m seeing the point you’re trying to make. We’re just going to disagree. Just because Cheney is more of a pitcher’s park than Safeco doesn’t mean Wlad is gonna see a boost in production moving up. There’s a lot of other factors involved, including but not limited to Safeco not being nice to hitters with Balentien’s offensive M.O.
It worked for Toronto with Frank Thomas.
I stand corrected.
Transcends means to: rise above; go beyond; etc.
Balentien has the kind of power to hit it out of any ballpark, including Safeco. Churchill grades him at 60/65 in power.
30 – no, it’s not 36 at bats. 2007+2008.
Wlad isn’t going to see a boost in production moving up, but he’s also not THAT liable to be killed by Safeco. That’s the only point here. He’s played in a decent proxy for Safeco, and has produced. Not amazing HR-crown numbers, but something that gives me a bit of confidence that it won’t neutralize him in the way it did Cameron.
Clement – the batted ball type stuff IS interesting. It looks like that held in 2007. All I’m saying is that in 368 career ABs at home, he’s hit .266 with a SLG% of .389. The improvement in discipline and everything else is real, but I’m just concerned (a bit, not a lot) about what this means.
Dave and DMZ-
What’s your take, and what info do you have about Clement’s current ability? Ever since you had that post about his slow bat-speed and breakdown of his hits coming off of exclusively sub-par minor league pitching, I thought he seemed written off as a serious impact player. Have those numbers changed? Can he hit good pitching??
From Olney’s Blog – Keep in mind, I believe this is speculation:
and
JUNIOR TO THE M’S 08!
Ugh… hopefully we dont send them Wlad… I’m hoping for a Reed in Cinci 08!
Wlad made the front page of BaseballAmerica.com today.
GRIFFEY IN 08!!!!!
40 – really cool – i sure hope they give some of these guys a chance to play ball up in the pro’s. We certainly have a bunch of underachievers playing right now.
Acquiring Griffey would be extremely popular move, but it would be wiser to hold onto our prospects and sign him as a free agent (if Cincy doesn’t pick up his 2009 option).
43-I agree but are Reed and Baek really prospects any more?
Cincy will try to pry more than Reed and Baek away for Griffey.
Oh boy, here we go again.
What value do people think the current version of Griffey adds to the roster, again?
His OPS (sorry, it’s what I could find quickly) of .779 puts him about middle-of-the-pack for RFs this year, and he can’t run anymore so his defense might not be much better than Ibanez.
That OPS would qualify him for 4th in the league at DH (you only get one guess as to who is dead last!), but where do we put Raul, then?
That’s a huge data skew, Marc. Including Clement’s 2006 stint in Tacoma as if those at bats are every bit as meaningful as ‘07/whatever data accumulates over ‘08 is horribly misleading.
If Clement gets hundreds of at-bats in Tacoma this year for some reason there will be meaningful data to go on. As of now, we should be treating Clement’s 2007 as the only meaningful information we have as far as splits go. He was a different hitter in 2006 and the sample size is tiny this year.
That data: .255/.342/.442 at home, .291/.392/.543 on the road.
ISOd nearly equal, ISOp knocked up a bit, more balls finding holes for singles. That isn’t that dramatic a difference.
Cheney, it’s worth noting, is equally tough on righties and lefties. It has the same dimensions down either corner and the huge centerfield wall effects all equally. Safeco’s short porch alters things considerably. I don’t buy the Triple-A park as a reliable proxy for projecting the Safeco effect.
I’m big time on the Griffey bandwagon, but even I recognize that his current OPS is also misleading, considering the park he plays in.
Let’s face it — Griffey’s hitting a cliff. If he can’t OPS over .850 in that park, in that league, then not even Safeco can help him.
Even being a RH hitter, I’d MUCH rather have Wlad patrolling RF.
Jeff- Can’t a guy dream… and isn’t middle of the road RF a major improvement from our current RF situation?
and isn’t middle of the road RF a major improvement from our current RF situation?
Yes, but there are cheaper/better solutions. You’re not getting Griffey for a song. It’s gonna cost us. I wouldn’t doubt that Cincy is going to demand either Balentien or Clement in return.
Sort of (he still has to be able to play defense), but there are better solutions available that wouldn’t cost as much in money or talent.
If we could get late 90s Griffey back, sign me up for that; but he hasn’t been that player for a long time.
50 – brings up a great point, what would we have to give up for Junior and what would you be willing to give up?
Personally, I would like to see KGJ back in a Mariners uniform for literally anyone – I’m sorry but I can watch us lose if Griffey is wearing number 24 again. It’s sad, but thats my current state of affairs with Mariner Baseball
Anyone can dream, but my dreams don’t involve bringing back a guy who forced his way out of town and now wants to play here again in the twilight of his career. I treasure Griffey’s years here, but I don’t have any sentimental attachment to seeing his last years spent in a Mariner uniform. He’s not Edgar. It’ll be enough for me to see him put on a Mariners cap for the Hall.
I agree with Jeff in regards to Junior in RF, but I would support signing him as the DH for 2009.
From an attendance perspective, it is a no-brainer.
Junior dispelled much of the bitterness with his amazing comments last year, as well as his stated desire to enter the Hall of Fame as a Mariner.
Junior isn’t Edgar…he is far more important to many longtime Mariner fans.
That’s insane. Totally insane. What happens when you trade the rest of your really good prospects for him and he retires in a year or two? Bring Edgar back? I don’t care if the team loses now as long as there’s a good plan for the future.
and what makes anyone think that Griffey’s partial no-trade clause now allows a trade to the M’s or that his views have changed? it is still very far away from his family, they still have spring training in Arizona, and he likely still thinks Safeco isn’t fair to hitters …
I’m surprised Griffey wouldn’t rather go to a contender, anyway. Since he’s never been to the World Series.
I do not support a trade. I support signing Junior after the 2008 season. I doubt the Reds will exercise their option, and Junior has publicly stated his desire to return to Seattle.
OK, some of the statistical abbreviations I get, but can someone quickly explain:
LD%
ISOd
ISOp
BABIP
Thanks.
I’ve never forgiven Griffey for demanding out, to the point I’d hate to see him come back, or wear the M’s cap in the HOF.
from the PI: “In a pregame interview, Griffey told FSN’s Angie Mentink, “I think I owe it to the people of Seattle, and myself, to retire as a Mariner.” Asked to clarify after the game, Griffey left it unclear as to whether he meant he’d like to come back and play for Seattle or if he was merely talking about returning when his career is over and signing a one-day deal that would allow him to retire with his original club.”
Murph,
It wasn’t all Junior.
can we stop with the Griffey speculation? Buster himself said that he wasn’t basing his opinion on anything concrete.
murphy_dog
Check out this thread for answers to your questions.
meh, didn’t work, here’s the link again
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/4/21/447155/open-statistical-question
Azfred,
Unfortunately, it makes too much sense for the Mariners. Most fans are justifiably disappointed by the Mariners’ slow 2008 start. Many fans would be placated by a trade bringing Junior back to Seattle. Attendance would most likely rise significantly.
Again, I am not advocating such a trade.
I hope management has better goals than placating the fan base with a cosmetic move that would do almost nothing to help the team.
And I very much doubt that attendance would rise significantly after the first couple weeks, unless the team actually started winning.
To be honest, this comment thread has already probably drifted way too far into Griffey territory anyway for something entitled “Rainiers Game Thread”.
I should really delete about 20 posts, including my own.
If you want to see if Dave or Derek think it’s worth writing a post about the pros and cons of trading for Griffey, shoot them an email; but let’s return this comment thread to talking about the Rainiers.
This is the same management group that kept aging, but popular, players on the roster well past their prime.
It was sad, however, to see just how much Junior had deteriorated when he came to Seattle in 2007.
How about a combination of the two? Wouldn’t calling up Wlad, Clement, or both be pretty popular with the fans as well? I don’t think there’s a need for a trade when we’ve got some pretty electric young talent and 2 guys that could (should) be replaced. Bring on Wlad and Clement, peace out Vidro and Wilk.
But I’m fine with waiting until May 8th on Clement, I’d heard that would give us another year with him as well. I can wait a week and a half.
Jeff,
Sorry about that. I didn’t get your reply until after I had posted.
If Wilkerson, Vidro, Norton and Burke depart, then you could call up Clement, Balentien and Reed.
On that note, I wonder if anyone that has been to some Tacoma games can tell us if Reed looks like he is for real. We all know he would be an upgrade in defense at either corner outfield position. Maybe his wrist took a lot longer to heal and he has regained a little bat speed. C’mon, I can dream can’t I?
[perhaps I wasn't clear; further Griffey-related posts in this thread are off-topic and will be dealt with accordingly]
[perhaps I wasn't clear; further Griffey-related posts in this thread are off-topic and will be dealt with accordingly]
Nice! USSM Got coverage from Neyer’s blog on ESPN … Great work guys!
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob
Hopefully some of you have insider.
Is Griffey playing on the Rainiers?!?! Call him up!
Oh, no wait, just tons of people off topic.
Wlad’s 3 HR’s last night is 3 more than Wilkerson’s had all season. I know 1 game is a small sample size, but…
For all that is holy, Ol’ Yeller this thread!
Actually, that’s an excellent idea.
Sorry guys, this is my fault as much as anyone else’s, but this thread has outlived its usefulness.