Next Need: Lefty OF/1B
Now that the Mariners have made some line-up changes, they’re going forward with a line-up that looks essentially like this:
1. Ichiro – LH
2. Lopez – RH
3. Ibanez – LH
4. Beltre – RH
5. Clement/Vidro – LH / B
6. Sexson – RH
7. Balentien – RH
8. Johjima – RH
9. Betancourt – RH
They might shuffle the batting order, but you get the idea. That’s an awful lot of “RH” notations in there. Even when they run up against a right-handed starting pitcher, they’re running out six right-handed bats and just three left-handed bats. This makes them a very easy matchup for right-handed sinker/slider arms who do well against same handed hitters but are vulnerable to lefties. The M’s just don’t have enough LH bats to exploit that type of pitcher. The imbalance allows them to really pound southpaws, but considering that 75% of all pitchers out there are righties, that’s not the side you want to beat up on.
The M’s offensive splits bare out the results of this overly right-handed line-up:
Vs RHP: .238/.303/.364, OPS+ of 82
Vs LHP: .321/.371/.491, OPS+ of 136
Having Clement replace Vidro will improve the offense vs RHPs, but the improvement there isn’t large enough for the team to contend. It’s a start, not a finish. This team simply needs another left-handed bat in the line-up, or they’ll keep getting shut down by the likes of Paul Byrd (career .692 OPS vs RH, .852 vs LH), and those are pitchers they simply can’t afford to not beat up on.
The team has options. Richie Sexson’s entire value so far this season has come from whacking southpaws (.364/.417/.682 vs LHP, .192/.304/.397 vs RHP), and his skills are tailor made for a platoon. Ideally, I’d like to see Sexson take over the role of Clement’s platoon partner and DH vs LHP, which would put Vidro permanently on the bench where he belongs. That would free up first base for an acquisition of Nick Johnson, simultaneously adding a quality left-handed bat with plate discipline and upgrading the defense.
However, I know that’s unlikely, so the next best move would be for the team to pick up a left-handed hitting outfielder. Balentien simply isn’t as likely to help this team win as Clement is, and getting him regular playing time shouldn’t be a priority compared to winning baseball games.
Until the M’s add some balance to the line-up, we’re going to continue to see things like last night, where marginal right-handers shut the team down due to a lack of quality lefty bats in the line-up. The M’s made a good step forward by promoting Clement and admitting that Wilkerson was a mistake, but they can’t stop now. This team needs another bat from the left side, and the sooner, the better.
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How about option number three:
The M’s pick up a left-handed hitting outfielder, put him in LF, and move Ibanez to 1B. The lineup and defense likely improve, and Balentien still gets regular playing time.
Are the M’s really THAT stubborn about keeping Raul in the outfield?
A doubles hitting lefty with good plate discipline and doesn’t need a platoon partner. And he plays on ok 1B to boot. Naw, we don’t need him we got big Richie!
obligatory Bonds mention.
Trying to convert Ibanez to 1B in the middle of the season is a lot harder than it sounds.
What would it cost to get our hands on Johnson? Do we have anything of interest to the Nats?
Where’s Ben Broussard when you need him?
It’d be a sad day when we have no talent that would interest the Nationals.
Heard Brad Wilkerson needs a job…
This isn’t a new problem and at least the M’s tried to solve it. A Corey Patterson signing would have been nice. I also second what irish said. Keeping the LHs we already and subtracting RHs is how to get what the team needs. Subtracting Wilk and adding Clement doesn’t make the situation in respect to LH vs RH any better.
Options:
Adam Dunn (even though we’d have to unload more prospects for 3/4 of a season)
Jeremy Reed
The remnants of Ken Griffey, Jr.
Dave,
I remember Ibanez playing 1B during the season a couple of years back. How awful was he? Could he be worse than Sexson? Is that even possible?
Well, when facing a RH SP you could have Clement catch and Vidro DH, leaving Joh as a very expensive bench player 75% of the time.
Get prepared for the Jr. trade where we send to Cincy Triunfel and lock up Jr. with a new 3 year deal.
Cor-ey Pat-ter-son. If you trade with the Reds, he’s the guy you want.
LewLegend mentioned him first, but would going with Jeremy Reed as a platoon partner with Wlad be a bad idea?
I know that he’s been not so good in the past at the major league level, but right now he is just destroying pitching down in Tacoma. It would cost nothing for the M’s to bring him up, but do you think he could bring results against big league pitching? Or has the ship sailed on him long ago?
Dave,
Just out of curiosity how would this work. I know McClaren could never implement something so complex, but here I go anyway. Against RHP:
Clement – DH
Reed – LF
Ibanez – 1B
Against LHP:
Sexson/Vidro – 1B
Ibanez – LF
Sexson/Vidro – DH
Substitute Corey Paterson or any other left handed outfielder for Reed if available. Even though shifting Ibanez to 1B isn’t a great idea, replacing him in the outfield has to make up more runs than he loses over Sexson at 1B doesn’t it?
Another plus with Patterson is when McLaren calls a steal attempt it might be Patterson instead of Ibanez attempting to swipe that bag. Give McLaren a player he can actually implement in his offensive style.
While I agree with the spirit of this post, I’m thinking the real problem here is that the entire offense sucks. If everyone were at the levels we’d like to see them at, then this kind of fine tuning would be great. One good lefty bat wouldn’t have changed the Ls we have in the ridiculous column.
Or we can get fleeced again by Bowden and end up with Dmitri Young.
Is Norton out of the picture? Will they try to re-sign him to a minor-league deal like they did Jimerson, or is he gone? I think a platton with Richie at 1B would help if they can’t get a true LH 1B option…
The biggest problem is the outfield defense in LF…WLAD will be average in RF, but my GOD is Raul killing us…I’d rather have Reed out there and Raul at 1B, even though Raul’s D at 1B won’t be great…
Ibanez has started 115 games at first base in his career, and moved there mid-game another 20.
I could see him being a little rusty, seeing as he spent most of his time there before his most recent stint with the M’s, but I can’t imagine that moving him there would be “a lot harder than it sounds.”
You know who is left-handed and can play a corner outfield position?
Okay, yes his name has already been mentioned but I like it better when you don’t actually say the name. Makes it sound like you’re alluding to Hitler.
Are they so down on Reed that they will not give him another try? He is .385 at Tacoma and would be a HUGE upgade defensively over Raul.
$10 says Matt Stairs. $20 says Jay Gibbons.
For purely emotional reasons I’d rather have Griffey than Patterson. Patterson’s defense would be better, but Griffey would likely be better at the plate. And Griffey’s Griffey. He’s the reason I started following the M’s and I’d just really like to see him finish his career and go into the HOF as a Mariner.
The “Hitler” you’re alluding to is probably just as bad at defense now as Raul…yes, the offense is a problem at this point, but if they are looking to move anyone out of the outfield, it better be because they play BETTER defense than Ibanez, not the same or worse…
Griffey is going to the Hall as a Mariner, regardless where he finishes playing…
-NOT MAKING THIS A BONDS THREAD-
bako, it wouldn’t mean a damn thing even if Bonds were 5-10 runs worse than Raul in the field if he were 100000 runs better at the plate, which he is. Don’t limit yourself to a specific kind of improvement. All kinds of improvements are good. That’s why they’re improvements.
-NOT MAKING THIS A BONDS THREAD-
Corey Patterson or Nick Johnson would be the ideal fits … guys like Dunn or Griffey would command too much in return and in Griffey’s case are well past their sell-by date anyhow.
M’s currently in last place in the AL vs RHP in AVG (and OPS I believe) … this org can keep fooling themselves that their starting pitching will keep them in every game, but as Dave pointed out when their OPS + is 82 vs 75% of pitchers out there they will keep struggling to beat the Paul Byrds of this league.
Jeff, if they weren’t so stubborn in the first place, we’d have made Raul and Richie platoon 1B in the offseason, Bonds as DH and gotten a defensive LF…but that’s all under the bridge, and we know they WON’T sign Bonds…the baby steps are finally happening, so next we need to upgrade the defense in LF…
Would half a season of Griffey really cost us anything in terms of talent? If we can Griffey for scrubs and picking up his full remaining contract doesn’t that make him a decent deal?
Av .263 OBP .306 SLG.428 OPS.734
That’s Patterson’s career line vs. RHP. The OBP won’t be much help. I guess the defense will.
Griffey isn’t hitting that well. He isn’t my first choice. Or second. The first step the M’s should take (even though I know that they won’t)would be to DFA Cairo and call up Reed. That doesn’t make them a playoff team, but it makes them better while they search for a better bat.
What makes you think Nick Johnson is available?
Dmitri Young isn’t looking like an option for the Nats, either now or down the road, so there’s not the depth there that was forecast in March. I don’t see a scenario where they trade him, especially not for what you would presumably like the M’s to offer.
One good thing about needing a LH 1B/OF type is that they are much easier to find than a decent SP/RP as you move towards the trade deadline. Especially if you are overly enamored with old gritty vets.
Where’s russell branyan?
the boys over at LL have a no-Dunn thread up at the moment.
the Nashville Sounds
” If we can Griffey for scrubs and picking up his full remaining contract doesn’t that make him a decent deal?”
Griffey’s contract is awful, it’s got deferred money paid out to something lke 2025. I wouldn’t touch it with a 100 ft pole unless the Reds agreed to pick up every last cent of the deferred portion.
Dave,
Any speculation on what it would take to get him? And what would you set as your upper limit if you were running the team? He is kind of stinking it up at the plate right now, so maybe he’d be cheap. Or at least cheaper than he’d be if he wasn’t posting a BABIP .100 points lower than his career average.
Johnson’s OPS is better than Griffey’s to be sure, but why platoon him? He doesn’t exhibit a left / right split problem. They should seek to trade Sexson for Johnson and pick up some of Sexson’s salary and perhaps send a minor-leaguer the Nats’ way. The Nats’ new park is much more righty-friendly than Safeco and the M’s can point to Richie’s road numbers (1.077 OPS!) to entice Bowden.
I agree with Irish.
I would release Burke and Vidro, call up Reed, and platoon Ibanez with Sexson.
This team doesn’t look like a Nick Johnson type is going to make the difference. We shouldn’t be giving up prospects for a club which can’t even keep pace with the rebuilding A’s.
Patience needs to be exercised in regards to Balentien’s bat. Moreover, Balentien makes a significant contribution with his glove and arm.
While Balentien struck out three times last night, it is worth noting that he was having a good year against right hand pitching in Tacoma.
So is there any chance the Mariners realize that Nick Johnson doesn’t actually suck? Is there anything other than the Dave’s Fangraphs article that could catch their attention. His average is up to .217! (with a 125 OPS+)
#35: Yeah, if that’s the case then forget it.
shortbus, i doubt anyone wants sexson…even if it’s a national league team, right handed ball-park, we eat the salary, etc.
#35
The person who picked up Griffey is not responsible for all the deferred money. A portion of his salary and signing bonus were deferred every year of the contract out to later dates. The person who picked up Griffey would only be responsible for the deferred portion of the 2008 salary, and probably the 2009 part as well as I’m sure he’d make the option being picked up part of the trade.
#39 – Unfortunately, if the M’s “got it” they would have moved on Johnson or Patterson this off season instead of Wilkerson and Cairo.
I know he is a righty, and would cost a bunch, but I’d love to get Alfonso Soriano…plus bat, speed, power, defense (at least better than Raul) and the Cubs have an overload in the OF…too bad we didn’t just sign Reed Johnson before they did…
I should added that Cairo should be released as well.
Why not give a shot to Reed? At least we don’t have to give up prospects. Reed is an upgrade defensively over Ibanez. Raul hasn’t looked terrible at 1B in his handlful of opportunties there.
In regards to Paterson, there is an article about what moves should be made on Foxsports.com and one is that C. Patterson should be out and Jay Bruce should be in…Bavasi needs to pick up the phone…
Barry Bonds. No, seriously. BARRY BONDS!!!! Suck it up, bring in Bonds, win the division.
I know this is inappropriate for this thread, but why [are you posting it here then?]
Reed had a solid year in 2007. Here are Reed’s numbers to date in 2008 in 91 AB’s:
.385 AVG., .447 OBP, .604 SLG, 1.051 OPS
Nobody is talking about JJ because, as you said, it’s inappropriate for this thread…
Maybe I’m just venting frustration, but what kind of logic or thought process prevents the Mariners from seeing that signing Patterson for outfield defense and baserunning and someone like John McDonald for infield defense is superior to Bloomquist/Cairo?
[what part of off-topic don't you understand?]
I would be worried that in any trade, BB would get ripped off as usual…the safest way to improve is from within…dump Cairo for Jeremy Reed…move Raul to 1B…platoon Richie with Raul or Clement…
Agree. I really don’t see the need for Cairo and Bloomquist both on the roster, and a real backup OF would be nice. Plus, I think they need to give Reed one final shot – either that or trade him. He’s not doing the team any good wacking the ball around T-Town at age 27.
Every time someone suggests trading for Griffey, God kills a kitten. Think of the kittens!
I personally like the Nick Johnson idea. Too bad my name isn’t Howard Lincoln…
Jimmie
They’ve backed themselves into a corner with Cairo because they need to use Bloomquist as the 4th outfielder.
It’s silly, but once you make the decision that you have to have Cairo on the bench so you can use WFB, then you have no room on the bench for a real outfielder to platoon.
I’d love to have Nick Johnson, but I can’t see the Nats moving him at this point. I’m sure they’d let Young go for a lot less than Nick.
*checking fangraphs*
Holy moly. Nick Johnson really is unlucky. 28% LD while only getting .237 BABIP. If I were the M’s I’d try calling the Nationals and saying, ‘Whoa, lookit that .217 average! I got a fella in Tacoma batting .385!’.
Yeah, either him or Pat-ter-son. Or, he-who-shall-not-be-named.
We know how Jim Bowden likes to collect outfielders!
[off-topic]
Oh, I’m a big Russell Branyan fan too. Dave, do you think he could hit better than .220, .230? And if he’s walking and hitting for power, would it even matter?
Nick Johnson would be a great upgrade, I’d love to see him in an Ms uni.
Can anybody explain what OPS + is? It’s hard to google because of the operator
Corey Patterson with his .297 career OBP is lucky to still be in the majors and if it wasn’t for Dusty Baker’s unnatural love for him, he’d still be waiting for the call. He can field and that’s it. Why the love? I just don’t see it … yet, meanwhile, Griffey’s worthless? He did play in 144 games last year going .277/.372/.496. Not great, but not too shabby.
It’s On Base Percentage adjusted for the Park. So, I believe, it makes OPS Park neutral. Please, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m not sure if it corrects for era.
Can anybody explain what OPS + is? It’s hard to google because of the operator
The quick definition of OPS+ is park adjusted OPS/league average OPS. This isn’t quite true, but close enough.
“I should added that Cairo should be released as well.
Why not give a shot to Reed? ”
Yeah, dumping Cairo for Reed is the quick and dirty solution.
How high are the Padres on their left-handed OFers in Portland? Is Gerut MLB ready? I worry if the FO makes a move for anyone with any amount of major league experience, we will get fleeced.
I know this is unrelated, but [unrelated]
In a hitter’s ballpark (PARK ADJUSTMENTS!!!) and in a league that was distinctly less than the AL.
Strikes me as being more on the shabby side, myself…..
I’m not happy with any of these OPS+ definitions.
OPS+ is a park-adjusted percentile comparison of a players OPS to the league-average OPS.
For instance, a hitter with a OPS+ of 100 will have a league-average OPS (park adjusted), while a hitter with a 150 OPS+ will have an OPS 150% of the league average.
Its funny. I seem to remember someone that fit that description, except he was a switch hitter and was DFA’d by a certain team. Something about battinf .438/.500/.563 wasn’t quite good enough.
OPS+ is a park-adjusted percentile comparison of a players OPS to the league-average OPS.
Which is exactly what I said, really.
I would hate it if the Mariners signed Griffey. Sure, the highlight game of last season that I went to was when he came into the Safe and hit a couple HRs and O’Face struck him out, but there are better, cheaper, younger options.
Turnbow is pretty much replacement level at this point.
How does a prospect hitting .295/.380/.568 with 21RBI in 26games sound? Meet Bryan LaHair, left-handed 1B starting for your Tacoma Raniers.
Re: LaHair…not to speak for Dave, but I think I remember him saying that LaHair’s not any good…
Re:Re: LaHair
He isn’t any good.
I still want to see Greg Norton back up.
The hardest part of OPS+ to understand is the number system. Just trying to make that part of it clear.
Re: LaHair
Re: LaHair
The flipside to the LaHair discussion is that if he was ever going to be good, it’s pretty much now. At 25, he’s about maxed out on his abilities. Whether this month is his true talent level or a fluke remains to be seen. He’s done this before.
To echo a few others here… Greg Norton might not be Nick Johnson, but he can play 1B and OF (at least as well as Ibanez and Sexson can…), he hits righties pretty well, and he’s free. He’s clearly better then Vidro or Cairo. Anyone have an insight why they released him? Is he jerk or something?
I love Corey Patterson…..as a defensive replacement for Raul in the 8th or 9th inning… as a starter….there is no upgrade there.
82. A guess: Norton is owed the minimum. Cairo is owed ~$850K. Vidro is owed ~$9 million. Dumpting Norton is a lower sunk cost than dumping the others, and the marginal gain of keeping Norton over one of the others likely didn’t justify creating a sunk cost in dumping one of the others from the M’s POV.
What does Corey Patterson bring that Jeremy Reed doesn’t?
@donger
Can anybody explain what OPS + is? It’s hard to google because of the operator
try googling OPS+
There have been several mentions of Russell Branyan in this thread. I had him sitting around on my DMB team for years, just waiting for someone to give him a chance to play regularly. He was always platooned, though his career split is actually pretty small. His career OPS= is 107. He’s hitting .363, OPS 1.058 at Nashville.
Long time lurker — first time poster.
I’m a Reds fan and really wonder why you have any interest at all in Corey Patterson. He’s been dreadful this year, and I’d be happy for you to take him off our hands.
I guess if you hit him 8th or 9th, he wouldn’t be such a drag on your offense, but he’s KILLING us at leadoff.
A .306 OBP, even with the .428 SLG, wouldn’t seem to be very valuable.
Have the Nationals made any sounds about wanting to trade Johnson? What it the basis for the Johnson wishing?
I suppose I am asking – What is the reasoning from the Nats perspective?
(Of course the real answer is obvious, but someone has already made the obligatory mention. The Jays are also a team with a good starting rotation that is that one controversial left-handed bat away from competing.)
Dave thinks Patterson is still poised for a breakout year. I’m a skeptic. (I would’ve taken Patterson over Wilkerson in the off-season, and I’d be willing to consider picking him up if the Reds released him, but I just don’t see him worth trading anything for).
I really agree with all of the Reed talk… at one time he was considered “Adam Jonesish” when the M’s picked him up as a part of the Freddy deal. It would be nice to actually salvage something from that deal.
At the very least he would give you a true fourth outfielder and add a left handed bat. Bring him up and DFA Cairo… seems to me the only reason that Bavasi would hold onto Cairo is that he is worried that Lopez will drop off the face of the earth like he did last year.
re: Corey Patterson’s breakout year. I’d love to see the list of players who finally figured it out in their ninth season in the big leagues.
Ummm? Johnson seems to have spent much of his 20’s on the DL.
Can that be expected to improve now that he’s nearing 30?
Corey Patterson has racked up a wood smoking .712 career OPS playing in hitter’s parks like Wrigley and Camden Yards. He’s going to do better at Safeco???
He also likes striking out and doesn’t like walking. A 4.5 K/BB ratio isn’t too great when you’re not providing power. He does bring speed, defense and outstanding base stealing skills, but another free swinging minimal power guy is NOT what this lineup needs. With that said, Bavasi will probably trade a couple good prospects to get him!