And a sign of hope, too
Steve Nelson made this comment late in the discussion of Dave’s post:
But, but .. this is team carefully assembled with a core of gritty veterans who know how to play the game. The kind of players who don’t panic and get thrown off when things don’t go right. The kinds of players who know how to do the little things to win games.
That the Mariners handily beat their Pythag record last season wasn’t a fluke; it was the direct product of filling the roster with players of character, integrity and veteran savvy. [/sarcasm]
I think the current team situation directly relates to perceptions of last years team. Many fans, and apparently the Mariners FO as well, believed that last year’s team was a valid contender (or almost contender) – that the record at the end of 2007 was a true reflection of the ability of the team. Buying into that notion leads directly to the conclusion that if a few holes are patched (primarily in the rotation) the team is a true contender. Clearly, that’s the way the FO saw the team last winter. I’ve mentioned in several posts over the last several months that the I think the FO viewed the 2007 season as vindication for their thoughts about roster construction, viz. that a roster assembled with the proper intangibles will outplay their true talent level – said team will win more than their “fair share” of games because the will do the things needed to win games and will play as greater than the sum of the parts.
This season can be viewed as a test of that notion. Many here (myself included) saw that belief as a misperception; the Mariners were not as good as their record and that they Pythag record was a better indication of the teams true talent level. I will gladly eat crow if I am wrong, but so far this season would seem vindication.
I heartily agree on most counts, and we’ve talked about a lot of those issues and the differences in how we viewed the team and how the front office viewed this year’s team coming into the season.
But we need to point out that something interesting just happened in the Wilkerson move: they recognized a problem, adjusted, and they did it early. We can certainly argue over whether or not it was the right move, but just a few years ago they were clinging to the belief that Carl Everett would turn it around any day now (depressing fact: Everett’s 2006 line would be a dramatic improvement over Vidro this year, or, unfortunately, Johjima) much later into the season. The offense was struggling, and they did something about it.
Sure, they may have gone into this season with unreasonable expectations of building from an 88-win season and decided to go for it, but at least we’ve seen they’re not looking at the roster with blinders on. If we take nothing else away from that, we should be happy that they’re not letting that initial assumption blind them to the glaring problems they face right now.
Now, whether that leads to trading the remaining prospects for proven veteran relievers, that’s a whole other topic.
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Heartily.
And another sign for hope, is that no one believes Ichiro or Johjima are as bad as they have hit up to now. And Clement, at least, is more likely to improve than to decline, and is highly likely to be better than Vidro. So it’s possible the “true” quality of the team going forward will be somewhat better than it’s been up to now.
I know you have a strong concern here for correct spelling, so you may want to change “hardily agree” to “heartily agree”.
/grammar police/
Its too little to late. The FO put themselves in this crappy position. This year is gone. Bedard is gone after this year, and so is any chance of competing, EVER. This team is the very definition of crazy. They do the same things and hope for different results. Here’s too 2009.
fixed
I think my first comment after they dumped Wilkerson was something along the lines of, “Hallelujah!” Not because getting rid of Wilkerson and calling up Balentien is necessarily going to make us any better, but because for once they didn’t have to ride the dying horse into the middle of the river before they realized there was no way it would get them across. In the context of what the team needs to do to become the perennial AL playoff team we all want to see, it’s a very small step. But set against the backdrop of what we’ve seen the last few years, it hopefully marks a shift in philosophy.
A comment elevated to posting status!! Ohh, my heart is a’twitter.
****
I think, though, that the content of my comment and roster moves are separate issues. The team certainly has a greater sense of urgency this season that in the Year of Everett. They might have even become a bit sharpened to the steepness of the cliff faced by many vets.
But I don’t think it follows logically that they have diminished their belief that character and grit will enable teams to play above their true talent level. The real test is how they fill the holes created when they clear non-performers from the roster. Will they be looking for more gritty vets with great character who will blend in and help create the needed chemistry, hoping those guys haven’t yet hit the steep part of the cliff?
Unfortunately, I agree that we’re seeing a bit of a regression to the real statistical expectations of this team, and even something on the low side of the expectations. Last year, they played significantly over their heads, and this year, I can honestly say that they’ve been worse than my admittedly pessimistic predictions.
I still contend that this team, as constructed, can be roughly a .500 team if the bullpen can get back to at least the middle of the AL pack and a few of the lineup changes produce…but this group of players is NOT a division contender.
On another note, the team is hitting .226/.356/.382 with RISP, .251/.311/.378 overall. The claims by some sunshine and rainbows fans and broadcast team members that the team isn’t coming through in clutch situations just plain isn’t true…they’re just not coming through at all.
If they keep up those team hitting stats and the bullpen continues to pour jet fuel on every situation for the whole year, they’ll push 90 losses.
I feel the biggest question now is not anything to do with the players, but rather the amount of leeway the lame-duck manager and general manager have to mess with the team. Also, whether any leeway at all is advisable. Do we want them trading players away given their track record and the fact they most likely won’t be here next season barring a miracle? While many of us would agree on getting rid of certain players, we would need to get at least a semblance of fair value, and can we trust this management for that?
This team is caught in a major offensive bind, grittiness-wise because it’s really difficult to display your true grittiness (exemplified by bloody spike wounds, begrimed uniforms and sweat-streaked faces) when you lack the ability to get on base in the first place. It seems terribly unfair but ‘gritty’ third strikes or ‘gritty’ trudges back to the dug out just don’t quite resonate with the fans.
Steve — Sure, but if nothing else, we have to acknowledge that at the start of the season they thought that team chemistry formula A would result in contention, and they’ve already seen that it wasn’t working.
Now, sure, that they may be stuck to finding chemistry formulas is bad, but if the way that works is they improve the team until they’re winning and declare that good chemistry, that’s not so bad.
It’s a ray of hope that the FO released an obvious problem in right field, but there’s no indication that this represents a change in philosophy or player evaluation skills. They assembled a team that they expected to be a contender, and the team clearly isn’t. Worse, this isn’t really a team that is underperforming (despite the statements of certain broadcasters); the team batting statistics aren’t far from expected. The problem is that the FO expectations included Richie Sexson being Comeback Player Of The Year. Sadly, Richie seems to have fallen off of that particular pony.
I’ll nurture the Ray O’ Hope until the day that Wlad is traded for a 30+ year old middle reliever.
So, folks here are disagreeing with DMZ’s (and the site’s) relentless negativity?
Shouldn’t we dust off the pony?
I’d have to agree, Derek.
If Bavasi made a plan, and said “Well, we caught lightning with Guillen on the cheap, why not try it again?” and gave Wilkerson X amount of days to do the same, then I can’t say I am too upset by that. Maybe their initial plan for Wilkerson and Norton was to squeeze them until Wlad and Clement passed the magical date we’ve discussed, but couldn’t wait any longer.
I don’t think that is the case, but it doesn’t really matter. As pessimistic as I am about this team’s FO, this move made me really happy (and that is their objective, right?). Let us hope it turns out good.
What is discouraging to me is that even if the FO has removed the blinders from previous years, completely restructuring the team, particularly the position players, in mid-season is difficult and dangerous. Unless Clement and Balentien come on like gangbusters and Sexson and Vidro hit like its 2002, a huge overhaul will be needed to help this team compete this season. It’s not even a question of whether or not I trust Bavasi and the FO to make the correct moves this season, I doubt that (any reasonable, realistic) moves necessary to compete this season are even possible.
You know…it’s just shocking to me the number of regulars that are sporting an OPS below .700 on this team.
Lopez: .675
Wilk: .652
Vidro: .546 (at DH!!)
Johjima: .463
Willie: .483
And two others are barely above the .700 threshold.
Yuni: .705
Ichiro: .704
Sexson: .739
This HAS to be considered a train wreck by management. Only Ibanez and Beltre have played at or near their normal production levels. Yet when you look down the list, only Johjima and Ichiro stand out as surprises. The others, we could have made a case before the season started, that they would have this kind of performance. That’s either incompetence or refusing to acknowledge realities which circles back to incompetence.
It’s also interesting to note that at the top of Mariner hitting statistics is Greg Norton! One of the human sacrifices made to get this team going had a hitting line of .438/.500/.563/1.063. What kind of mixed signal did that send to the team???
You are right spanky, the FO is absolutely flipping sh*T right now. They really do not know what to do. I know Silva was saying in the post game yesterday that guys are trying to change their approach to much and that he isn’t going to change a thing (and recommending other guys dont change) – I personally dont buy into this mentality.
The FO will make some moves coming up, you better believe that – especially if we continue this free fall.
It is very sad to see what is happening, but these guys need to catch a few breaks soon and get some confidence or this season is over.
How’s this for replacement level?
LaHair .305/.392/1.001
LH bat. Have had a chance to watch him down here in Tacoma…defensively not a gem, but isn’t going to cost you more runs than he gains you. Why isn’t he considered in the mix?
During the YES broadcast of the Mariners-Yankee game one of the commentators said, ‘The Mariners really need to secure a dependable .300 hitter to shore up the heart of the line-up’… Uh, yeah… Aside from miraculously signing an All-star out of nowhere, what are we to do? Will half a season of .250-.260/15 hr from Bonds do it? What’ll we give up? The other notable impression from the YES commentators was the overall sense that they like a lot of our talent and are used to being able to ‘buy’ it, like rich car-buffs at an auction… kind of demoralizing, really.
These bats will turn around, they got to… Things will even out, we’re still only +/- 100AB’s into a 500AB season. Johjima will get better, Wilkerson probably wasn’t going to, Cairo needs to be a coach.
Here’s what I think:
-Post game BP a la Pete Rose’s prescription for hitting woes.
-Cut Cairo or make him a coach
-Trade Baek and $ for Coco Crisp
-Consider getting rid of Vidro…
-Bring up R.A. Dickey (sentiment, kind of interesting pitcher).
Again, our issue is a bunch of players and no ‘team’. Bavasi went ‘part’ shopping, our roster moves are similar, yet we still don’t have a ‘team’.
18 – “Again, our issue is a bunch of players and no ‘team’. Bavasi went ‘part’ shopping, our roster moves are similar, yet we still don’t have a ‘team’.”
I would do a quick polish on that statement:
“Again, our issue is a bunch of bad players.”
Why on earth would Boston make that trade?
I think it’s time to cut Bavasi and Mac, bring in a better GM and promote a coach who’s willing to do what a smart GM tells him to do, and start wheeling and dealing.
We do have some guys with some value, so that’s where we should start. As much as I like Beltre, I think we could get some good value for him. Take a team like the Brewers. They feel they’re on the verge of competing, but they could be on the market for a third baseman if Bill Hall slips or they lose an outfielder to injury. They have a great 3B prospect in AA Huntsville named Mat Gamel who they might be willing to part with for Beltre’s production this year. This is just an example — there are tones of teams looking to compete who could use a “Beltre” or “Ibanez” or “Sexson” (maybe just wishful thinking) etc.
Look at the Orioles and Rays. Sure, they’re bound for a flop this year eventually, but they’ve got a great group of young hitters to build a team around.
Basically, it’s time for this team to choose a new identity and stick with it.
someone calling the post game show thought the Ms should just trade for Josh Hamilton ….
I agree that it was good to see the FO make quick and decisive moves last week. However, this team is not a good team. You don’t rebuild a team mid-season. You can add a few pieces to a good team to make a pennant run. But you can’t build a pennant contender from a bad team mid-year.
WRT both Lahair and Norton consider the sample size of their performance this season, please.
How does trading Beltre away make this team any better this year or next year? Tui, at Tacoma, is not ready to play everyday. Ibanez has a limited value, as in, which team making a run for the playoffs needs a DH/4th OF/1B: Blue Jays (so they think) Orioles, Rays,
Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, White Sox, Tigersso the value is minimal for him.This team was built to compete this year and next (I’m not saying that is a good thing, I’m saying that’s how it is). Trades should be evaluated along those lines. Which means, Triunfel, Tui, Chen and even possibly Wlad and Clement are the possible trade bait pieces.
The best way to make this team better (and Dave and Derek have long argued how difficult it would be) is to put J. Reed in LF, Ibanez to 1B, Sexson platoons at DH with Clement, cut Vidro & Cairo. And you don’t hurt the team long term by trading away prospects (Asdrubal Cabrera) for valueless pieces.
Yeah…and how can those guys figure it out yet our FO can’t?
The problem with trading Beltre — apart from removing one of the very few good reasons for watching this team — is that he’s underrated: the general perception of his value is lower than his actual value. Which means we’re unlikely to get a fair trade for him.
The whole point of trading guys like Beltre and Ibanez (who are good, but won’t be here and/or be producing when the team is realistically ready to compete), is that you make a choice to play for the future. I.E. it doesn’t matter what the team was designed to do — IT’S NOT WORKING!!
A few years ago, the Orioles thought they were ready to compete, so they went out and signed Tejada and accumulated players like Huff, Baez, etc. (all short-term solutions). When they realized that was a flawed plan, they cut their ties with players with value and got younger at the major-league level while maintaining a similar talent level.
The perception of Beltre in the mainstream media (haha) may undervalue him, but a wise GM might look at the guy’s numbers before shrugging him off. Same for Ibanez.
Beltre is one of our best players, was a great FA signing, and is still young enough that he will be contributing IF this team ever contends…trading him would be a BAD idea…he along with ICHIO, PUTZ, and FELIX should be the only 4 players on the MLB roster that are untouchable…
But as stated many times, do you even want Bavasi to make ANY moves? He record isn’t what you’d call “clean.”
Boston could use a 3B in the near future. The A’s might need a new 3B, would properly value his defense more accurately than the Mariners, and have the financial means to take on at least most of Beltre’s contract (their payroll sits at close to $40 million right now). The problem is, would you want Bavasi making any kind of trade with Epstein, Beane, or any other GM with good enough talent valuation skills to appreciate Beltre?
The best way to make this team better (and Dave and Derek have long argued how difficult it would be) is to put J. Reed in LF, Ibanez to 1B, Sexson platoons at DH with Clement, cut Vidro & Cairo. And you don’t hurt the team long term by trading away prospects (Asdrubal Cabrera) for valueless pieces.
I agree. And bring back Greg Norton.
It isn’t just Vidro and Johjima that make you long for Everett’s numbers. Clement and Balentien aren’t exactly lighting i up (I know, small sample size).
themedia, Beltre is 29. I don’t see why he can’t be an important part of a rebuilt Seattle team a few years down the line.
Unfortunately, I think a good argument can be made that the Ichiro and Johjima falloffs are real. Ichiro is in his late 30’s, and Johjima is in a position in which players age rapidly (which is why the contract was so ill-advised). It’s certainly possible that they will come back and hit closer to their career averages (Ichiro keeps himself in exceptional shape, which is a positive), but it’s also possible that they will continue to decline, as they are at the ages that players in their positions usually do decline. As for Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez/Cairo et al, they’re all over-the-hill players whose terrible performances are hurting the team. Bedard’s injury history means his ability to help is probably limited. Felix is still learning how to pitch (and doesn’t seem to be getting much help in that process). Probably the one area in which improvement can be reasonably be expected is the bullpen, which truly is underperforming. In general, though, I think this team’s realistic ceiling is .500, and they could be a lot worse than that, and no quick fixes are going to make much difference. I continue to believe that this organization needs a complete overhaul.
I have no idea how anyone with a modicum of analytical skill could believe in the possibility of a Gestalt team where the combination of players somehow trumps the actual quality of those players.
There is exactly zero evidence to support this. Accepting that people will see this pattern as a result of their confirmation bias once they already believe in it, how could they possibly reach that conclusion in the first place?
Ain’t gonna happen. He was traded to the Braves today for PTBNL.
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You’re rosterbation makes sense, seems less ‘traumatic’ than other solutions, except that I am not sold on Jeremy Reed. I feel like there’s a reason he’s not up here and there appears to be little interest in him. The guy’s made some nice catches and hit for spells, whether he can hit in the ‘bigs’ isn’t clear to me.
As for Bavasi, he deserves a vote of no confidence/trade freeze/probation. I say fire him, send him packing, just make sure you don’t give him ‘another chance’ to trade away the current and future of this franchise. I think he’d destroy the long-term future of this franchise to ’save his job’ and/or give himself another shot at another club. Bavasi is likely in panic mode and will be looking to make near-term successes. He sees the writing on the wall and will be looking to make the assessment of his tenure look cloudy enough to allow him to springboard to another gig at say, a Pittsburgh. Many of us see him as inept, he’ll argue via spin that, ‘ownership group issues’, ‘challenges with managers’ and ‘the lack of time to get it rolling out there’ were at play and that sometimes we all ‘need for a fresh start’. This crap and his experience in the old boys club that is the MLB will obfuscate his true inability. Some other club will pick him up, we’re left in the lurch with a bunch of money owed to guys like Vidro and a farm system full of career AAA-er ‘prospects’.
I have two issues with all the trade talk above:
1) The current management cannot blow the team up and start trading for the simple reason that it would be an indictment of their roster construction and therefore leading to their firing.
2) If they somehow survived “1″ above, do you really want Bavasi doing the trades? He has shown no talent for it.
Unfortunately, as someone said above, I think, “…we’ll ride this dying horse into the middle of the river…”
LaHair for the past two years:
2006 .327/.393/.525/.946
2007 .275/.332/.431/.763
2008 .305/.392/.610/1.001
That’s pretty favorable, in my mind, to the production we get at 1st base now (for a lot less money).
Those that harp on Mac. Remember Bob Melvin? He’s a genius now… Bavasi is the issue with this franchise. Ownership is giving us money to spend on players(7th highest in baseball), we’re just making bad decisions. I say Bavasi’s to blame: it’s been his job to put together these teams and he seems fundamentally unable to do this.
And how about bringing up Ryan Feierabend? It is our bullpen, as much a our anemic offense, that has put us in this hole.
He was traded to the Braves today for PTBNL.
Thanks. I didn’t know that. I certainly didn’t expect him to continue to hit .400 all season, but cutting him and keeping Vidro and Cairo seemed like madness to me.
slescotts Says:
I’m with you in being not sold on J Reed being a major league OF, particularly his bat is weak for a LF. However, his makes the defense much better in the OF, and makes the offense better because he will outhit Vidro/Cairo/Bloomquist and probably Sexson. Because those guys aren’t producing at a major league level.
Reed’s greatest value is that he is already in the org and won’t cost anything to acquire. For example, their have been calls for C. Patterson or Nick Johnson. These will cost bait which hurts the team.
I don’t think we can speculate that Bavasi is in panic mode, and think it is wrong to assume that. He did something extremely logical by bringing up Wlad and Clememt. However, he has made the mistake of thinking this team would outperform last years team. Also, we don’t know what kind of freedom he has, obviously he had no opportunity to pursue certain players who will not be named, so we can’t necessarily indict all of his decisions.
I wouldn’t bet Reed will outhit Sexson, but he should best the other three, and facilitate Raul’s move to DH, so he would make the team better.
It’s a bit sad, though, that our attempts at significant improvement lie with a failed prospect.
Ichiro may well be showing the affects of age, but it’s worth keeping in mind that he has a history of slow starts.
Let me defend my assertions on Beltre. Look, I like the guy. I think he’s in the to 6-8 3B in baseball. Right now. This season (and parts of last season) are the only times he’s looked like 2004 Beltre, so, if you consider that he’ll only produce at this level once every three or so years, it might not be a bad time to deal him for somebody younger who is destined to be good.
I will concede that it would be hard for me to imagine a world where Bavasi does this to get a guy like Gamel (who is the real reason Ryan Braun moved to OF). We’d probably end up with Guillermo Mota or someone equally useless in the long term.
…And I think I know who that’ll probably wind up being: this certain “prospect” in their system by the name of David Sunflower-Seed.
***should say “top” 6-8 3B in baseball***
I saw him taking ground balls a couple years ago. Throws seeds across the infield.
BTW, another team looking for a 3B is the Dodgers. They have Andy Laroche in the minors as well, and everyone knows that franchise is loaded with prospects.
Speaking of 3B’s named Dave, I wonder what David Bell’s up to these days? He’d probably hit no worse than Sexson or Vidro!
Adrian Beltre is a person the Mariners should be re-signing. Not trading.
Ownership has repeatedly stated they won’t blow up the team to do a rebuilding like the Indians did (and from a business perspective, that’s understandable: Cleveland’s attendance still hasn’t recovered). In a tanking economy the product you want to be selling is “hope” not “wait until a couple of years from now.” The drop in attendance in 2004 spooked them enough to go out and open the purse for Sexson and Beltre, so they’re probably willing to do that kind of thing again if they get sufficiently worried (and with Sexson coming off the books, they have room without dipping further into the revenue stream). I can see them blowing up management, though, particularly if Bavasi was selling the “at 88 wins we’re just one big pitcher away from the ring” story to them over the offseason and they bought into it. Bavasi is getting his chance to bail out the leaky ship he built, but he’s running out of pails; and when it comes time to replace Sexson does ownership really want to use the same decisionmaker to throw their good money after bad? I have to think that seat is pretty hot.
Bedard is gone after this year, and so is any chance of competing, EVER.
Dude, EVER is a very long time. You could’ve said that about the M’s in the 80s, too, and look what happened in ‘95-’01. You sound like a Cubs fan, or something, and they have a much better sense of how long “EVER” actually can be. The team has plenty of payroll. There’s a draft every year. It’s May, and the Rays are just a couple of games out in the east, and the Royals are still ahead of the Indians and Tigers. Anything is possible, eventually. The team is not doomed for EVER. Climb down, take an SSRI, go have a walk around — it’s even sunny in Seattle today. Ride a pony!
I know this might be the worst idea around and is akin to throwing gas on a burning building:
-Under what conditions do we trade Ichiro? Is he the elephant in the room?
Why do so many people think other teams value veteranness as much as the M’s do, and so assume they’ll be willing to trade their hot young cheap prospects for one of Seattle’s older, grittier, expensive pieces? I realize this is just another variation of “we can trade our garbage for the other guy’s allstars” psychosis but seriously, please try to imagine these trades from the other team’s point of view before you propose them.
We can certainly argue over whether or not it was the right move, but just a few years ago they were clinging to the belief that Carl Everett would turn it around any day now
Carl Everett’s triple crown stats as of the morning of June 1, 2006: .259, 7 HR, 24 RBI, with a .750 OPS. He was gone a little over month and a half later.
If Wilkerson spent April and May of 2008 hitting like Everett and then tanked like Everett did, my money is on the team giving him about the same amount of time to “turn it around”. I mean, they are STILL letting Richie Sexson “turn it around”, when his stats this year (.215/.309/.430) are essentially the same as last year (.205/.295/.399). I think you’re being a bit generous here.
The fundamental problem with this organization is that they don’t know how to recognize the value that goes with talent level. Examples are legion: the Guillen/Santiago trade, the Soriano/Ramirez trade, etc. The recent decision to cut Wilkerson/Norton is another example. It wasn’t a bad idea to remove Wilkerson from the lineup, but to cut him after spending $3 million plus for him while keeping Cairo on the roster makes no baseball sense whatsoever. By platooning Wilkerson and only starting him against right-handed pitchers, the M’s demonstrated that they either don’t examine statistics or disregard them; the handling of Wilkerson maximized the chances that he would fail. Beginning the season with a bench of Cairo, Bloomquist, Jimerson, & Burke meant that they had no options to replace a struggling starter with a capable reserve. I agree with the post that says Jeremy Reed is probably not an above average hitter in LF. However, the truth is that Jeremy Reed is one of the 13 most valuable hitters that the M’s currently have, and to have him rotting in Tacoma while Miguel Cairo and his 0-the season batting average enjoys his place on the major league roster is just another example of how lost the decision-makers on the Mariner’s are.
Just the fact that the “rebuilding” A’s with about 1/3 of the payroll are 5.5 games ahead of us should be enough to cinch Bavasi’s removal from the GM position.
As far as those who advocate trading for Nick Johnson, Corey Patterson, or Ken Griffey, I would simply say that the sweetest words any opposing GM must hear on the other end of a telephone is “Hi, this is Bill Bavasi and I’d like to talk trade.” Do YOU want him to trade Trinufel for Griffey?
First trade Beltre, now Ichiro…Gah, is this ever the museum of hopelessness today!
Speaking of the “rebuilding” A’s, I’m tempted to go back and remind myself who the people were who dismissed an entire projection system because it projected the A’s as better than the Mariners and as a potential contender.
Under what conditions do we trade Ichiro? Is he the elephant in the room?
If you trade a player in the first year of a new deal where he resigned with you, can’t he void the deal at the end of the year? So it would seem that is a problem you’d have to deal with up front.
I’m also not seeing the rationale for the ZOMG WE ARE TEH DOOMED posts. As Dave has pointed out on numerous occasions, 1B/DH/corner OF are the EASIEST positions to fill with guys who can give you a .750 OPS and improve your team’s offense. If we so desire, we could jettison about 25+ million in salary at 1B/DH/corner OF come the end of 2008 (Sexson, Vidro and Raul, though the last one will probably not happen). The problems here are largely solvable without extraordinary effort.
Brad Wilkerson = 10 BB’s in 56 AB’s.
Jose Lopez + Yuniesky Betancourt = 6BB’s in 232 AB’s.
I’m with e.c. We have some serious holes, but they’re easy ones to fill. You don’t need five Babe Ruths and three starting pitchers; you just need a couple of mokes with halfway-decent bats who can play a little defense. There are a hundred of these guys sitting around waiting.
But the FO has a track record of not believing minor league numbers mean anything, so most of those guys are invisible to them. Balentien is unlikely to change their minds. The real problem is the way the club sees and evaluates evidence, and that’s unpromising. Yes, they’ve shown they’re willing to be flexible. But there’s little reason to think that they’ve actually adopted an intelligent assessment standard.
On the other hand, we’ve seen SO MANY eminently predictable failures of their “proven veteran” criterion, maybe they’ll start to get the idea. They wouldn’t be the first people to stumble upon the truth in a time of desperation.
On the other other hand, I don’t think there’s anyone in the front office who understands how cripplingly bad our defense at 1B and LF really is — I think they think it’s GOOD.
So I don’t know. You could fix this team, pretty much, without superpowers, but will they? Will they move Raul to DH? No, of course they won’t. Will they find some other DH who can actually H a little?
Thank you — and what’s really frustrating from the fan’s perspective is that this continues to happen over and freaking over again…since they never seem to learn from their mistakes of the previous year or years.
When you see such a predictable pattern, it makes you almost wish they’d hire Howard Stern’s buddy Gary the Retard as the freakin’ GM — since he’d probably do a more logical job at roster construction.
Okay, guys, I know we’re all frustrated, but can we please try to elevate the conversation a little bit above things like “retard”, even if it’s a reference to Howard Stern?
I’m not trying to be a stick in the mud, but let’s try to maintain some modicum of civility.
Much appreciated.
OK, let me say again that I like Beltre. But did you guys forget the last three years like they didn’t happen? Granted, he wasn’t the worst player on the team by any stretch of the imagination, we’re paying him like he’s Chipper Jones!!
I like him with his .388 OBP, but pardon me if I don’t think it will last. His OBP topped out at .328 in the last three years. The basic rule of trades is buy low sell high. Right now would be the perfect time to sell high on Beltre if Bavasi would admit this season is a wash. Those are also the kinds of deals where you get great prospects.
What the Mariner organization needs more than anything else at this point is someone to come in to the front office and look at things from a fresh perspective. There are some definite strengths that the 25 man roster has, and the farm system, while weaker than pre-Bedard, isn’t a complete disaster by any means.
Odds are that if this team ends up 80-82 or 75-87, which is becoming increasingly likely, that’s going to happen. Going from 88-74, adding the mythical “ace” that the team thought was their only weak link, and then faceplanting on the concrete probably means Bavasi’s written his ticket out of town. The HoRam for Soriano stuff could be tolerated while the win total went from 63 to 69 to 78 to 88, but I don’t think it will fly when it goes from 88 backwards- especially when the rest of the division isn’t exactly inspiring fear.
Fari enough, Jeff.
*Fair*
Gosh, maybe I should run for GM! >:(
Start up the M’s Blogosphere “Bring in Jacque Jones” chants.
Egaas, you got to it first! Was just about to say he was DFA…
The team looks rudderless right now, with all of the recent flux in personnel, the injuries to the staff, the AAA call-ups, etc. John McLaren is in over his head trying to manage all of this. Can the team wait for him to get up to speed? Someone like Piniella or even Hargrove could probably impose some order on the situation in enough time to get the situation back under control. McLaren? They can go out and get Griffey, Nick Johnson, or (insert acquisition of the week here) but it won’t make much difference if there’s no leadership on the bench.
Hmm…his salary looks to be in the high-5’s (mil, that is). I wonder how much our buy-in would be to bring him on board?
Someone like Piniella or even Hargrove could probably impose some order on the situation in enough time to get the situation back under control.
You seem to have forgotten that both the managers you mention were unable to turn bad franchises (TB, BAL) into good ones, even ignoring the sub-.500 years they had in Seattle.
Field managers are not fairy dust.
On Beltre: Dave in particular has written a lot about Beltre’s value relative to other third basemen and his importance to the Mariners. If you haven’t read those, that’s fine, but it might be nice if you’d go check them out, rather than re-start a debate that’s been well-settled for some time.
I actually have read a few (not sure about all), and I realize what Beltre brings to the table as a pretty good all-around 3B in a league where that is a scarce commodity. It’s like I’m not getting through here. So let me be blunt:
BELTRE IS GOOD!
However, here are a few 3B I’d rather have: A-Rod, Chipper, Ramirez, Braun (although he was pushed to the OF, and he is terrible defensively), Wright, Cabrera, Youkilis. My point is, Beltre is a pretty good player, but he shouldn’t be untouchable — especially when the team as a whole is going nowhere and there are guys in the minors who are or will very likely be pretty good (Longoria and Reynolds are two examples of guys who just came up but are already playing a significant role). When you look at what Beltre did offensively in the last few years, coupled with what he’s doing now, I don’t see why it would be a crime to trade the guy.
He is only 29, and if you guys think he’s going to be this good every year from here on out then I guess my point is invalid. From my vantage point, however, I don’t see how that’s likely.
Piniella? Why stop there? Bring back Ruppert Jones! Al Cowens — no, wait, he’s dead. Steve Henderson!
…How ’bout Dave Henderson?
The argument to make then is that, assuming Beltre won’t be a part of the M’s the next time they’re actually any good, it makes sense to deal him. He’s certainly one of our better trade chips.
I don’t disagree with this. Beltre’s value to the team is clear, but if the team still loses, it’s irrelevant. If there was a team out there (Minnesota? Philadelphia?) willing to put together a good package for Beltre, I’d listen.
I would bring back Blowers to play 3B, no question about it.
I think the Mariners’ management may have mistaken the movie Major League as a historical document.
thanks, Derek, I was just about to go off & try to pull up the links …
Bedard is under contract through 2010.
Here’s what Dave thought of Jacque Jones two and a half years ago.
If anything, with the way the market has been going, Adrian Beltre is underpaid at this point. I would completely boycott the Mariners if they traded Beltre. He’s still fairly young, and probably has at least several years of solid production left. Aside from A-Rod, who is overwhelmingly better than Beltre at 3B?
I’m of the sign Bonds contingent of M’s fans. I understand the negative connotations of signing him, but if anyone’s seen the way the Safe looks lately, I think it’d be hard to hurt the M’s attendance and reputation at this point. (Its starting to look like the Kingdome circa 1994…there are a lot of empty seats these days).
Maybe Vidro just needs to give Jobu some rum.
Long-time reader, first-time poster…
In Sexson’s case, is it really time to give up on him for the season? Judging against his recent Aprils, his April ‘08 numbers don’t really seem that unusual.
Remember when Lou had Blow playing 1B for a few games after they traded David Segui back in 1999?
That was a hoot — I remember even NY Vinnie saying, “Is Mike Blowers really the best option we have at first base?”
Unfortunately, I think a good argument can be made that the Ichiro and Johjima falloffs are real. Ichiro is in his late 30’s, and Johjima is in a position in which players age rapidly (which is why the contract was so ill-advised)
I might be willing to agree with you on Joh, but not Ichiro. Ichiro is 34, which doesn’t fit any definition of “late 30s” especially for someone so fanatical about fitness. And he always starts off slow.
Ichiro in Apr, career: .293 \ .348 \ .395 BAbip: .313
Ichiro in May, career: .372 \ .417 \ .473 BAbip: .395
Ichiro in Apr ‘08: .252 \ .310 \ .361 BAbip: .262
Ichiro in May ‘08: .471 \ .471 \ .471 BAbip: .471
Yes, of course small sample size applies, especially for May (17 PA). But I’m certain Ichiro is going to be fine, and just as those “OMG he’s done!” posts and comments we saw in 2003 and 2005 look pretty foolish now, I’m going to bet that by September you’re going to hope none of us remembers this post.
You’re thinking of the Sonics.
Someone like Piniella or even Hargrove could probably impose some order on the situation in enough time to get the situation back under control.
As EC says, there’s no coaching fairy dust. There might be something McLaren could do if he had a hugely talented team that was underperforming. The sad thing about this year’s M’s is that with just a couple of exceptions, they are performing pretty much at their talent level (and were overperforming for much of last year — and what does that say about McLaren?)
Actually, I think the Sonics owners are operating from the “Slapshot” script.
This is exactly my point. It doesn’t matter how good Beltre is if the team doesn’t win, if your goal as a fan or GM is to, at some point, have a winning team. If it isn’t, then it’s fine to keep guys like Beltre. I mean, he’s putting up great production now on that $64M contract, and we’re getting great value, so everything’s great. Who cares if he falls off the table in a few years? Who cares if his share of the load helps the M’s go from 68 to 72 wins? Maybe we can beat Texas!
Beltre not as good as A-Rod — film at eleven.
Seriously, so what? And NONE of the guys on that list can hang with Beltre on defense. Runs saved on defense are just as valuable as runs created on offense — slightly more, in fact. I don’t think the solution to the M’s problems starts by fixing the problems they DON’T have.
As a season ticket holder for the past three seasons, I’m really pissed at the front office, and especially at Bavasi. (Who I think needs to be shown the door sooner rather than later.)
As I see it, the team desperately needs someone in right field that can hit at least .250, a new first baseman, and at least 2-3 replacements for the bunch of losers in the bullpen.
I was completely appalled when I found out that they had extended Kenji’s contract, especially given his poor hitting performance since the start of the season. And I will be really surprised to see if Ichiro – of all palyers – makes the All-Star Team given his low numbers.
Last but not least – I would love to hear someone in the front office give a logical explaination why Cairo is on the active roster.
[fixed]
Honestly, the only players in the organization that I’d consider untouchable are Ichiro and Felix.
You’d have to do a lot of convincing to get me to be willing to move Triunfel, Aumont, and maybe one or two others, but I’d still listen to appropriate offers.
75.
Okay. Tell us where, in the organization, we have a 3B that good, that is ready to contribute to this team right now or in the next year.
I surely wouldn’t be in favor of any dealing of prospects and young players. You’d had your shot at that, and at some point you need to say stop and go no further.
Yes, they have a mandate and strategy to win now, but at some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad and not cripple the system for the next 5-7 years.
Thanks to the “all children are above average, everybody gets a gold star” model that MLB uses, every team gets an all-star position player. If not Ichiro, then who? By the time the Allstar voting is complete, his stats will have earned him a place anyway.
And I have to say about trading Beltre…creating a hole to fill another one is one reason why we’re in this mess….
I agree. If we can sell off Beltre/JJ/Ibanez/Bedard for some youth, I’m all for it. Those are the only players I can see getting a return of at least one A prospect out of. Batista/Washburn/Silva/Vidro/Sexson might be able to be traded for C prospects or maybe draft picks if we pay most of their salaries.
I’d just really like for the Mariners to sell now, they’re obviously not contending this year…
… besides Beltre, obviously.
Here’s the thing that irritates me the most about all of this, too.
Safeco Field is a great place to watch a game.
The Mariners are really, really good at marketing their product, whatever the actual quality of the product happens to be.
They could EASILY maintain a decent level of attendance and revenue through a rebuilding project; and yet, they stubbornly refuse to do so, when it’s CLEARLY the direction they should be taking this franchise.
The “rebuild while still staying competitive” model doesn’t work in any sport, and the Mariners aren’t anywhere near as close to building a winning club as they think they are.
102. Whither Oakland, Mr. Nye? Maybe the problem is that the Mariners are going about it all wrong (passing out bloated contracts to proven mediocrities and then filling in the blanks), rather than the idea being futile.
Cabrera isn’t a 3B, Braun isn’t a 3B, Youkilis isn’t a 3B (and even is he was seriously???), Jones is a 3B in title only. That whittles this list down to Ramirez (clearly inferior to Beltre), and A-Rod. Adrian Beltre will not be easy to replace.
You missed Wright, but I’d only put him and A-Rod above Beltre for someone I’d want over the next 3 years.
Although this is, of course, not taking into consideration that any SS and most 2Bs could play a competent 3B… though the move would reduce their value slightly.
Why in the heck would Ichiro be untouchable if your plan is to rebuild?
There are two players that simply should NOT be on this roster anymore: Cairo and Sexson.
Someone should be working with Raul before games and on off-days taking grounders and scooping throws at first. Or, DH him and put Vidro on the bench full-time. Put LaHair at first the remainder of the year.
Someone with some legs should be brought in to fill the gap in left. Whether that’s Reed or someone cheap outside the organization.. don’t care.
And the person to handle all of this should NOT be Bill Bavasi.
Go with it this year. We’ve already made our bed. There will be $$ off the books next year and our non-Bavasi GM, who would hopefully have an actual plan, will get a relatively clean slate to work with.
The M’s don’t have a 3B prospect as good as Beltre. This isn’t that difficult guys. If one team needs help now, then they’ll often give up more talent than they get back if the player they get back helps them short term.
Again, I’ll use the Brewers as an example. Mat Gamel is not MLB ready, but the Brewers think he’ll start for them by next season. If something were to happen with their team, they might be willing to part with Gamel and other extremely valuable prospects (Matt LaPorta, Alcides Escobar, etc.). Say, for example, Bill Hall or any of the Brewers’ OF went down or struggled to the point of replacement. That would create an opening at 3B and an overvalued need. Again, the Brewers are just an example, but the point is this: when you have a team with a thin farm system, and an MLB squad that is going nowhere, then you need to get the most out of the few valuable players you have. You may as well turn them into something that will help the club a lot down the line.
I’d argue that the A’s are still in rebuilding mode, and I think Beane’s given quotes to the effect that he still views their roster that way (although I don’t have any handy).
The simple fact of the matter is that Billy Beane can identify talent and exploit market inefficiencies to let him get it without high costs (whether opportunity costs or actual fiscal costs), so the overall talent level of that organization is better.
So, he’s still in rebuilding “mode” but he’ll grab quality patch talent that he can get on the cheap. Winning an extra game or two is just a nice bonus, the way that organization is being run right now, so if taking a cheap flyer on Frank Thomas or whoever gets them an extra win or two, why not do it?
Because a) he helps sell tickets while you’re rebuilding like no other player save Felix and b) I have an irrational man-crush on Ichiro that clouds my judgment regarding him.
It’s not impossible that you could make a case for trading him if you really were committed to rebuilding, but I’d hate to see it happen.
No. No! NO. NO! NOOO!
This is the sunk cost fallacy, which says that if you’ve invested a lot in something, you have to keep it. But the reasoning here is totally wrong. Suppose you paid $100 a box of feces, not realizing that it was a box of feces. The sunk cost fallacy says that because you invested a lot in it, you have to keep it around, maybe open it up and smell it every day, because you paid a hundred dollars for it so you have to get something out of it. This is, of course, ridiculous. You toss the box out and find something better to do with your nose.
Similarly, our team is terrible. The FO invested a lot in this season and we stand almost no chance of getting anything for it. We can either enjoy the smell of this bad team next year too, or we can do with the valuable parts what we need to do, which is trade them off for the future. I suspect that the sunk cost fallacy is a big part of what’s responsible for teams refusing to rebuild when it’s time. For the M’s, the time is now.
Part No. 1 to trade: Erik Bedard. He’s an outstanding pitcher and lot of contending teams would love to add him to their rotation. They will send us a few good prospects for Bedard. By the way, Bedard is a big part of why the M’s need to rebuild now, not over the winter. We have control of a great pitcher and can sell one season of the guy this month, or next, or near the trade deadline, to a contender that needs his skills.
Beltre is another one we can trade. Ibanez too. If we could find a team willing to trade us something in exchange for Sexson while agreeing to pay Sexson’s salary for the rest of the season, I’d say do that too. (We have to pay his salary–that’s another sunk cost–we might as well get a couple of potential MLB players for it.)
The players we shouldn’t trade are the young ones, the ones whose salary will still be low in two to three years time. As our current youngsters are hitting their stride and other youngsters are arriving, we need to have hired good free agents to fill positions that our young players don’t.
I’d love it if the M’s won this season. But that’s a pipe dream and if the FO doesn’t recognize it, we’re going to smell this box of feces for another year or two. Consequently, I would love it more if this management grew a pair, admitted mistakes, and invested in a bright future, rather than the dismal present. There’s no reason that we can’t be a good team in 2010 or a great team in 2011. But we won’t be that this year, and probably not next unless we get some very lopsided trades.
Ichiro is worth his contract on promotional purposes alone. Getting rid of him would anger a lot of fans and drop revenue. That’s not even discussing the fact that he’ll likely still be a premium OF for another five years.
The Mariners should pick up Jacque Jones for LF and move Ibanez to first IMO.
Why in the heck would Ichiro be untouchable if your plan is to rebuild?
Business reasons. Ownership reasons.
Little late, maybe- 34(As for Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez/Cairo et al, they’re all over-the-hill players whose terrible performances are hurting the team. Bedard’s injury history means his ability to help is probably limited) Sorry, didn’t hear you- Ibanez? He may be a little over the hill, but he is a huge part of the M’s (LF range problems aside), and has been for a couple of years, especially with the team now hitting poorly. Sorry for the run-on, /grammar police/ ;>
Mariners sign Jacque Jones? Would that be a gain? Raul Ibanez leaves left field? cha right brah!
I like this elegant metaphor. But what do you if you’ve purchased a gritty box of feces with proven veteran leadership?
But what do you if you’ve purchased a gritty box of feces with proven veteran leadership?
Well said. lol
The “rebuild while still staying competitive” model doesn’t work in any sport
The Yankees and the A’s have both managed to field competitive teams for a long period of time (while taking vastly different routes there).
What Cleveland did was drastically cut salary and basically concede competitiveness, and you can see that their attendance died and STILL hasn’t recovered, over 5 years later (9th in the AL in 2007, 9th so far this year). One also should consider is that part of the Mariner marketing is “See? We’re spending money and planning on contending!” You can see what happens when you write multiple seasons off in the local market by what happened to the Mariners of the 1980’s, Sonics of the 1900’s/2000’s, and the Seahawks in the 1990s – or the Huskies in football, who have basically imploded as a sports program. There’s no evidence that this market is going to accept a 3-5 year rebuilding plan.
Especially given that thanks to draft slotting and international scouting, talent isn’t as skewed to the top of the draft as it used to be, I’m not convinced that Mariner strategy for 2009-2010 should be to build a 70-75 win team out of replacement-level spare parts and kids ala Cleveland in 2003, and trading the Putz/Beltre/Bedard axis of the team for whatever young talent they scan get. Much of the problems with the 2008 Mariners are easy fixes, given competent management, simply by understanding the concept of “replacement level”, especially as applied to DH/1B/corner OF, and the back end of the rotation. They’ve actually correctly understood this when it comes to the bullpen, so this isn’t TOO much of a stretch. I think that a new GM could probably find the left-handed hitting and decent talent at 1B/DH/corner OF we need to make this a decent team next year (warning: this assumes Lincoln/Armstrong doesn’t hire Cam Bonifay).
This isn’t fantasy baseball so trading every single player is not realistic. I think the M’s will give it one more month before going in to sell mode but if we are 8-10 games out in a month or worse, then here are my thoughts on who to trade/keep:
I think the key is identifying the core players on this team that can help us win over the next 3-5 years.
Keepers:
Ichiro – he’s going to be good for the next 5 years and is the face of the franchise.
Felix – lock him up to a Longoria/Sizemore/Tuwlowitski type deal soon!
Bedard – some people are saying to trade him but I think you lock him up to a 4-5 year deal. We gave up the world to get him and I stil say that a 1-2 of Bedard/Felix in the playoffs is one that can take you all the way. With a good roster around those guys of course.
Clement – admit Kenji was a mistake and trade Kenji. A good team would take Kenji as catching is valuable. Clement needs to be catching. Rob Johnson would be a good back up.
Balentien – He has all the tools, let the kid play. Great arm in RF and he hits for power the other way, a big key in Safeco.
Beltre – I think we need to lock Beltre up to a 5 year extension. The dude can flat out hit and field. We have no one ready to play 3B in our organization. Beltre is really emerging and is just entering his prime.
Players to trade:
Sexson – This is obvious but doubt we get anything for him
Ibanez – Love the guy but he is not part of the long-term future. He would have solid value to a contender
Washburn – Maybe an NL team would take a flyer? Moving his contract would be great!
Batista – should fetch more than Washburn
Silva??? – not sure other teams would want his contract and he is still young and decent. Probably just need to keep him.
The M’s don’t need to trade every good player because they have a payroll to keep the good ones. I would NOT deal Beltre, I think that is a BIG mistake. The M’s are going to clear $23 mil on the contracts of Sexson, Vidro and Clement, if they are smart and don’t let Vidro’s option vest. Raul makes 5.5 mil so that is almost $30 mil off the books if all those guys are gone.
I already addressed the A’s situation; the Yankees (and Red Sox to an only slightly lesser extent) operate under a business model that isn’t sustainable for any organizations outside of those two.
And honestly? I’m not convinced that there’s a solution out there at DH/1B/OF that would fix the problem without creating a worse one either in salary considerations, talent given up, or both.
I’m open to persuasion on the issue, but I think the current roster is too deeply flawed to add a piece or two and still catch the Angels.
Also, any plans for the near future of this franchise HAVE to take into account the fact that the A’s will be in Fremont before too much longer, and will have a lot more revenue available to them to work with. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them on par payroll-wise with the Mariners in five years.
I think that this season is lost and we should be selling, not rebuilding. I agree that we are too flawed. But if we can sign Jacque Jones or Bonds or someone for <$1 million I don’t see why we wouldn’t want to pick up a few extra wins.
The Indians’ attendance dropped significantly the year BEFORE their rebuild started, though it certainly took a nosedive even after that. They were one of the biggest draws in baseball because they had a new stadium and a fantastic team, not because ownership committed to years of sustained mediocrity.
Lots of arguments here about the Mariners’ 07 W/L record relative to RS/RA. They overperformed last year, we say, relative to true talent level, and any dork could see it was a mirage and not likely to repeat in 08.
Well, let’s look at 08. M’s W/L is 13/19, while RS/RA is 133/141. Wow, they are really unlucky! What about the Rangers? Same W/L. RS/RA = 143/187. Looks like they are getting what they deserve.
Angels? 20-13, 160/154. Lucky slap-hitting SOBs. What gives? They should be 2 games ahead of the M’s, not 6.5! Now the A’s, there’s a solid team. 19-14, 159/121.
There’s alot of correlation between a team’s W/L and RS/RA, historically, but there isn’t, as yet in 08, in the AL West. Looking at the way the Mariners have lost this year – normally reliable bullpen melts down, good defenders can’t catch the ball in Yankee Stadium, impotent (but not that impotent – 9th out of 14 teams in run production, but tied for last in W/L) offense. It has LOOKED and FELT worse than it really has been.
How else to explain this but to acknowledge the still very small sample size that this season still represents? The Angels look unbeatable, and “their pitching will only get better when Lackey returns”. It had better – only two other AL teams have given up more runs!
It WILL get better. Good enough to contend? Maybe not, but it’s hard to throw in the towel quite yet, as much as I am tempted to do so.
Bonds, Jacque Jones and Coco Crisp aren’t the solutions. what we need is some Refuse To Lose posters. Those used to work.
This is just a lazy argument, attempting to insult the other side so that they’ll quiet down. Many teams have undergone recent drastic rebuilds where they’ve shed almost all of their veterans with any value, from the Fish and DBacks to the Indians and A’s. Each team has been better off for it.
A sign of hope would be signing recently DFA’ed Jacque Jones
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/SPORTS02/80505048/&imw=Y
philosofool Says:
I agree with you on the sunk costs front. My point is that in this organization, their is no realization that this team, built as it is right now can’t compete this year. Possibly next year with certain individuals gone (Vidro, Sexson) and others seeing more than 500 at bats (Clement, Wlad).
We have to realize that the organization, if they were thinking like you (or Dave or Derek) would not have traded “The Next Eric Davis” and “above average LH specialty reliever” for Bedard. Hell, if the M’s could get equal talent on what they gave up for Bedard, then they should do it. My point is that they can’t.
They have him for this year and next (arb eligible) so he does have significant value for a team, like right now, how about the Yanks overpaying for him with either Hughes or Kennedy.
Trading Beltre makes almost no sense. He’s 29, he’s plays great defense, and he’s above average at 3B defensively. He’s a top-5 3B, and if he stays, he’ll probably come at a discount, or he’ll give the M’s a Class A draft pick and Tui or Triunfel will be ready.
To me, this team looks like it was built to win next year. Sexson and Vidro are gone, Clement and Wlad are in their second year, Ibanez is a DH/1B. Bedard is back, Felix should be god-like, Washburn, Beltre, and Batista in their walk years. Trading away the significant pieces and moving to a 3-5 year rebuilding plan is stupid. Start now by making this team better for next year. I would not mind seeing if anyone would accept Sexson (no one will) or Vidro, but destroying this team makes no sense.
nickwest1976 Silva will not be traded this year or next. That’s just silly.
#124
Not trying to insult anyone but I don’t see that being a realistic scenario right now. The M’s are not going to trade away every single good player to completely rebuild.
My argument is that they don’t need to do that.
Felix, Bedard, Beltre, Ichiro, Clement, Putz, Balentien and even Betancourt and Lopez is a pretty decent core of players.
The M’s need to address speed/defense and left-handed hitting. I think those things can be addressed without blowing up the team.
For every Cleveland that succeeds there are the Pirates, Royals and Rays that have been trying this for years and not succeeding.
I just wonder how willing Ichiro would be to staying if we go into full rebuild mode with little hope of competing in the next couple of years. I know we don’t know his reasons for re-signing with us, but him not signing until the team started winning seems to be awfully coincidental. Would he want to stay here if we’re not going to be competitive?
#126
Good thoughts, I agree that this team can contend next year if constructed correctly.
I was not advocating for a 3-5 year rebuilding plan. What I was saying was to keep the guys that can be part of this team for the next 3-5 years so we can have some sustained success.
I completely agree, we should not move Beltre.
I’m open to persuasion on the issue, but I think the current roster is too deeply flawed to add a piece or two and still catch the Angels.
I agree for 2008, but I think it’s because you can’t realistically fix 3 lineup positions (RF, DH and 1B, and you could argue 4 with C) midseason by trade without burning up the farm system or creating holes somewhere else (especially with Bill “HoRam for Soriano” Bavasi making the trades, and having burned a lot of talent getting Bedard). Clement and Wlad simply aren’t enough. You need the offseason (and a new GM) to be able to do radical roster reconstruction.
But 2009’s another story, given a competent GM. I don’t see a reason why a team capable of spending 110 million in salary AND that has significant dollars coming off the books needs to wave the white flag in this division. This team is BETTER positioned than where it was in 2004, with players like Ichiro, Beltre, Bedard, Felix and Putz, and there’s just not a good reason to believe that you can’t surround them with 90-win talent, if you do a good job at assessing talent.
#130
AGREE!!!
A big problem with the team is the way the roster has been assembled. I believe it is safe to say that free agents are generally overpriced. The Mariners entered this season with 6 out of the 9 offensive starters (Sexson, Beltre, Johjima, Ibanez, Wilkerson, Suzuki) and 3 of the 5 starting pitchers (Washburn, Batista, Silva) who were acquired via free agency. Additionally, look at the amount of money that has been poured down the drain by signing other free agents like Spiezio, Aurilia, Reese, Everett, etc. Is there another team, other than possibly the Yankees, who have come to rely on free agents so much?
Trying to rebuild the team for 2009 will be too heavily dependent on what’s out there in the free agent market for me to consider it to be a viable strategy.
From Cot’s, likely 2009 free agents at the “problem positions”:
First Basemen
Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson SEA
Mark Teixeira ATL
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC
Catchers
Rod Barajas TOR
Henry Blanco * CHC
Johnny Estrada MIL
Toby Hall * CWS
Adam Melhuse TEX
Mike Redmond * MIN
Ivan Rodriguez DET
David Ross * CIN
Javier Valentin CIN
Jason Varitek BOS
Vance Wilson DET
Gregg Zaun * TOR
Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds SD
Juan Encarnacion STL
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay ATL
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench TEX
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik COL
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN
I don’t see many solutions there. Maybe Teixeira at 1B, but I’ve always thought he was a bit overrated, and will likely be expensive; Adam Dunn for the outfield, maybe, but likely also expensive?
It just seems like too much of a crapshoot to me, and even setting aside the “Bavasi is a bad GM” issue for the moment (because frankly I’m a little tired of how we have to rehash that in every comment thread that even remotely touches on roster construction), trades will be equally costly in a different currency (talent) if not more so, because everyone else in baseball knows the Mariners have some serious problems on their roster.
don52656 says:
Chicago Cubs (5 of 8 outside org, entire pitching staff except Z and random relievers), Red Sox (5 of 9 outside, entire pitching staff except Lester, Pap, Buch, and random relievers), White Sox (8 of 9 outside, pitchers are mostly homegrown).
Now think of the teams that are good for extended periods, and bring their own up: Atlanta (6 of 8 internal, pitchers are homegrown), Cleveland (8 of 9 internal, all pitchers home grown).
These could be wrong, just off the top of my head.
It WILL get better. Good enough to contend? Maybe not, but it’s hard to throw in the towel quite yet, as much as I am tempted to do so.
I’ll put it this way- this team isn’t a “true talent” 90 loss team, any more than last year’s team was a “true talent” 88 win team (if, God forbid, we start losing guys like Ichiro or King Felix to injury though, look out below). If we lose 90, it will be because we’re unlucky.
However, it DOES seem this team is a 75-85 “true talent” win team, fairly similar to last year, with weaknesses in hitting and bullpen compared to last year counterbalancing the improved starting pitching. That’s unlikely to win this division, especially given that we’re multiple games back of two teams.
So, I guess what it comes own to is what Dave said…
If I recall correctly, the Red Sox have fewer free agents than you think….I seem to recall that Beckett was a trade from Florida, not a free agent (it cost them Hanley Ramirez, though). They got Lowell in the same trade. I guess you could call Ortiz a free agent, but Boston paid bargain basement price for him originally. Pedroia, Youkilis, Varitek, Ellsbury were all home grown (or stolen in a trade!). The M’s have relied on free agents more than the Sox, IMO.
Virtually all of the White Sox starting lineup was either home grown (Crede), or acquired via trade (Konerko, Cabrera, Dye, Pierzynski, Swisher Quentin).
My point is that the Mariners have chosen to take the most expensive route to collect their talent, and haven’t done an especially good job of it. The Yankees, with all of their financial resoureces, have proven that you can’t buy enough talent to win unless you have a clue how to pick up or develop cheap talent.
Trying to rebuild the team for 2009 will be too heavily dependent on what’s out there in the free agent market for me to consider it to be a viable strategy.
2008-2009 offseason =! premier free agents. Really, you CAN find .250/.320/.450 guys who can play DH on the waiver wire at that point. Dave’s absolutely right when he makes this point, that “free”/replacement level talent that can hit a little while playing a non-critical defensive position just isn’t that hard to come by. The Mariner front office just sucks at this game. In addition, we’ll have the 2008 season to figure out who’s done and who isn’t.
And here’s the problem I have with the thesis of “let’s blow it up for a couple of years”: all that tanking a couple of seasons does for you (in terms of talent acquisition) is give you better draft picks in the US amateur draft, plus whatever talent you snag by trading your veterans or letting them walk and collecting the compensation pick. There’s no reason why the M’s couldn’t SPEND money judiciously on the right free agents (heck, even Bill Bavasi doesn’t always sign clunkers), let the right guys walk, and use their international talent acquisitions + willingness to go out of their draft slot to get much of the same benefit as high draft picks.
Really, this roster and system is in better shape than it was in 2004. The next GM isn’t being handed anywhere NEAR the kind of mess Bavasi was handed in 2004, where the only player who could be described as above average for his position on the opening day roster would have been Ichiro, and a shambles of a farm system outside of a few players.
I just don’t see why we’d need to blow the team up, instead of fixing the messes on the MLB roster- and the fact that Oakland’s on their way to Fremont isn’t going to make life EASIER for us in 2010-2011 when we’re supposedly ready to contend.
Sorry. I made a distinction between homegrown and free agent/trade. So yes, you are correct, all of those guys came in trades.
Not this year, but I think trading Ichiro a few years down the road wouldn’t be such a bad idea. The M’s will probably get some pretty decent talent for him if they trade him at the right time. The same thing with a guy like Ibanez. If we could find a team in the AL with a need for a DH, this could also be a good trade in 1-2 years. Or this year if you think we need to blow the team up and start from ground up again. Bu then again, you have to know when a guys big dropoff season is coming, and that’s not always an exact science.
Ibanez is losing value fast, so if we are to move him, it should be soon. Moving Ichiro at any point in time is a terrible idea for reasons mentioned above.
108.
Never minding that this is an incredible leap of faith… who out there has an extra quality MLB-ready 3B sitting around, that they are perfectly willing to deal to us, and how much talent are they going to want? And why would they have such a player in their org that they have no intention of playing?
It is NOT as easy as you think it is to replace a top shelf 3B. Matt Gamel is not going to come close to match Adrian Beltre’s production at 3B, and you can’t even guarantee the guy will give you anything much above replacement level. And that assumes the Brewers, per your hypothetical scenario, are even willing to talk turkey on a deal… which of course precludes you can and will deal Beltre.
And making a deal just to ‘rebuild’ isn’t as simple either. Who do you intend to pick up by dealing Beltre? Do other GM’s agree with your assessment? If your expected return is a bunch of prospects, what happens if they don’t pan out or several aren’t nearly ready for the bigs?
There are a lot of unanswered questions that would need to be answered, that would require some sort of battle plan, before a GM even gets on the phone to entertain such possibilities.
Joser: You’re right that I thought Ichiro was older than 34. Given that age and his conditioning (plus the type of player he is), he figures to be productive for a few more years. And I agree with several others that he’s very valuable for marketing. I stand by my negative evaluation of Johjima and his contract; catchers just don’t last that long. This was yet another example of the overvaluing veterans fallacy. Beyond that, the quality players on this team, in addition to Ichiro, include Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, Putz and of course Felix, and possibly Clement and Balentien. I’m eliminating Bedard because I think he’s going to be injured too often to be of significant value. The team needs to get rid of the rest of the aging, overpaid veterans, get younger, more mobile and more agile, and hire people who can actually evaluate talent.
I’m not in favor of moving Beltre, unless the team does decide to really blow things up and go very young. He’s one of the few quality players they have, and I don’t have any confidence that this FO would get comparable value for him. Since Sexson, Ibanez and Vidro don’t have any value, that isn’t such a big problem in their cases.
Well, I don’t think we want Jacque Jones. He’s showing all the signs of being “done” as a major league hitter.
Jacque Jones just got DFA’d is he worth picking up at this point in his career?
Jones is done.
165/244/253
18k/8bb
and 0 steals vs. 1 CS.
done.
Latest word on the A’s is that they won’t be moving into Cisco Field until 2012. So that gives the M’s a little more breathing room to win the division a couple of times before newly rich and always smart Beane dooms us all forever.
Much of the problems with the 2008 Mariners are easy fixes, given competent management, simply by understanding the concept of “replacement level”, especially as applied to DH/1B/corner OF, and the back end of the rotation. They’ve actually correctly understood this when it comes to the bullpen, so this isn’t TOO much of a stretch.
Except I’m not sure that wasn’t an accident — the bullpen was just the bottom of the priority list. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if they really have learned the lesson now that the replacement level bullpen has been taking wins away from the starters. Will McLaren whine for another veteran like Parrish/Mateo/White? Will Bavasi give him one? Will he then get used in game after game to demonstrate veterans can repeatedly lose games just like replacement level kids?
normally reliable bullpen melts down
That reliable bullpen was last year’s bullpen. It had its share of luck (in case you don’t remember Morrow’s walk-the-bases-loaded tightrope outings) and since then a key piece went to Baltimore.
Balentien – He has all the tools, let the kid play. Great arm in RF and he hits for power the other way, a big key in Safeco.
What? By every account he is a pull hitter.
cha right brah!
I’ve never seen that written before but, whoah, dude, you just channeled every Spicoli-esque surfer directly into my brain. Khalil Greene is in there hanging with the Weaver brothers. Make them stop!
Also, can we not talk about “gritty feces” — veteran or not? Owwwww.
Trading Beltre?
Again. Um, you’re creating a hole in the defense. AND you’re creating a hole on the offense. Unless you’re going to be filling at least THREE holes, I don’t think you’re gaining anything with a trade.
This time has a hundred different problems, none of them named Adrian and this thread is dominated by a “trade Beltre” discussion?
” This isn’t that difficult guys. If one team needs help now, then they’ll often give up more talent than they get back if the player they get back helps them short term.”
The problem with that argument is that Beltre is not 35. He is not someone impossible to resign and in the last year of their contract.
If you were really, really lucky, what you traded Beltre for MIGHT someday grow up to be… Beltre.
I would love to see the Ms aggressively get younger and jettison vets that are in their way… but Beltre is one of our biggest assets at this point. The Ms would be insane to trade him (for anything they could realistically get, of course).
Also… Beltre hasn’t stunk for the last three years, which seems to be part of the premise of the trade him argument. He has been overall very valuable to the team.
Except I’m not sure that wasn’t an accident — the bullpen was just the bottom of the priority list.
Keep in mind that Eddie Guardado is STILL pitching in this league. There’s been the occasional Reitsma, but no, really, since 2004 the team’s realized your farm system can give you an arm or two a year.