Game 41, Mariners at Rangers
Felix versus Kason Gabbard. 5:05
One of the unexpected side-effects of unbalanced play that I don’t see discussed — and I say this as someone who hugely favored unbalanced play despite its problems — is that it makes you feel like you’ve seen the same team over and over. I feel like over the last few years I’ve seen Texas so often the sight of their uniforms makes me a little nauseous. Those guys again? Millwood for the 200th time in two seasons? Noooooooooooooooo.
So!
CF-L Ichiro
1B-0 Cairo
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
2B-R Lopez
C-R Johjima
RF-R Balentien
DH-L Clement
SS-R Betancourt
What a bizarre lineup. Lopez at 5? Why in the world would you do that? I don’t get it. And why play Cairo at first? Or bat him second?
Let’s assume for a second you want Cairo to play. He should bat last, because he’s the worst hitter. Maybe second-to-last, if you want to get the Betancourt-Ichiro sequence. So
1 = Ichiro
9 = Cairo
Then you want your best hitters in the middle, so
CF-L Ichiro
?
3/4: LF-L Ibanez, 3B-R Beltre
Then really, Lopez fits in nicely at 2, which sets up a nice L/R sequence:
CF-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
3B-R Beltre
?
?
?
?
1B-0 Cairo
Then, sorting on current performance and general L/R-ness, a decent lineup comes together pretty quickly.
CF-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
LF-L Ibanez
3B-R Beltre
DH-L Clement
RF-R Balentien
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
1B-0 Cairo
See? Piece of cake.
Texas:
2B-R Kinsler
DH-L Catalanotto
SS-R Young
CF-L Hamilton
RF-L Murphy
LF-B Boggs
C-R Laird
1B-R Shelton
3B-L Vazquez
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If putting together a lineup was a piece of cake than just about anyone could be a manager. Oh, wait.
Does anyone think that lineups at this point will make any difference. I mean, if they are going to play Cairo at 1st base, let them go all out and bat him 4th!
I like 1B-0.
I don’t understand what possible line of thinking would put Cairo in the #2 spot. If you feel the need to put him in at first (I don’t), then why in god’s name isn’t he batting 8th or 9th?
Moves like this prove Mac should not be a manager at any level.
The only thing I can think is…since we like to waste outs by laying down bunts…I guess I’d rather have Cairo doing the Bunting than Lopez.
It’s a stupid arguement, but at least a touch of logic. Maybe…ok, maybe not.
So when McClaren said he was no longer worried about bruising anyone’s feelings when he was creating line-ups, he was referring to the feelings of fans of the team, correct?
McLaren hasn’t had much to work with this season but he’s not doing the team any favors with his bizarro strategery.
At this point, I think picking the linups from a hat might be an improvement…
The only thing I can think is…since we like to waste outs by laying down bunts…I guess I’d rather have Cairo doing the Bunting than Lopez.
That’s what I’m thinking. Lopez is actually hitting really well (for him) and maybe Mac had an epiphany and decided it was silly to have him bunt all the time. Of course, if Ichiro doesn’t get on…ruh roh.
Sklyansky, that made me laugh.
I don’t doubt that Willie Randolph would bat Cairo number two as well. Speed plus the magic words “bat control”: voila, number two hitter. All the better if he’s a middle infielder.
Well Kudos to McLaren, I never thought I’d see the day where I’d say, my gosh I wish Turbo was in the lineup, but given this alternative, that day has come.
Albeit a middle infielder who happens to be playing first.
I assume the thought process was “Lopez is our hottest hitter, he should be protect Ibanez” … of course as you guys have shown hot streaks have no predictive power regarding future performance so who knows.
Maybe Mac just thought “hey, we scored 12 runs last night, better shake up that lineup”
It’s really simple actually – Ibanez is hitting great with one out, something like .320 with 4 homers and 17 rbis (if my math is correct). Having Cario hitting second gives Ibanez the perfect hitting environment early in the game!
First base is an important offensive position. You never see glove-only first basemen. You can’t really field a quality major-league offense on a contending team with a first baseman batting ninth. I want both a quality major-league offense and a contending team. Therefore I must bat my first baseman in the middle of the order. Except he’s not really an RBI guy so I guess I can’t put him at 3-4-5. I can’t bat him deep in the order and I can’t bat him 3-4-5, and I’ve already filled the leadoff slot, so I guess 2 it is. Incidentally, I am insane and completely impervious to logic.
With Felix plunking guys he’s pissed at and Sexson starting brawls it got me thinking. Maybe we should run out:
1 Ichiro
2 Lopez
3 Ibanez
4 Beltre
5 Hanson
6 Hanson
7 Hanson
8 Clement
9 Betancourt
Now thats a lineup I’d pay to see.
mac is probably thinking “when the team is on 100+ losses, who cares if cairo bats 2nd and goes 0-4″ ?
1 Ichiro
2 Lopez
3 Ibanez
4 Beltre
5 Hanson
6 Hanson
7 Hanson
8 Clement
9 Betancourt
“Puttin’ on the foil, coach! Want some?”
Well those stats they just posted on Mariner pitching walks are almost as bad as Cairo in the two hole
A few years ago it was the A’s that we seemed to see in six separate series in the first two months. Of course, it seems like Fox has Yankees-Red Sox on every other Saturday, so it could be worse.
Maybe McLaren took our suggestions to heart and really is pulling his batting order out of a hat?
It would be interesting to have someone ask him to explain his “thinking” here.
Is gameday correct that was 5 straight fastballs?
I think Mac did it. He finally broke my spirit and on Felix Day. This is the first game I can ever remember not being even sort of excited to watch. I would rather study for my Logic final… I am not going to, but I should.
Was that really an error?
If Kinsler had been called out on that play at first, I wonder if Beltre would have appealed?
Is it just me or does Felix think he is Freddy Garcia.
Oops. Had to say it.
God, way to hold the runner.
That was Felix’s idol growing up….
Oh, Gawd…we must be playing brutal!
Man … that chick who does the FSN Sports Report is BANGING. Who is that?
Cannot believe we have a Thursday and Monday off back to back.
WHAT THE F?!??!
If you are going to bunt, bunt. If not let him swing away from pitch 1. Garbage
There’s that patience we were discussing earlier.
Holy sweet mother of Jesus that “tremendous try” by Ibanez was painful to watch. He doesn’t look like he enjoyed it much, either.
1 and 2nd, 0 out. Kenji up. He’s 7 for his last 12.
Okay, I understand the bunt call. Advance the runners. but stick to it! IF not, let KENJI swing.
But no, get him in an 0-1 hole … then because you didnt bunt him on the second pitch you have him in an 0-1 hole for no damn good reason.
This may be a dumb question, but watching Jose Lopez i noticed this. How is it possible for Lopez’s OBP to be lower than his batting average? I’ve played / followed baseball for 30 years and can’t think of how it’s possible.
Freddy … I mean Felix should take off number 34 or he might head down the same road.
Where is the King’s mental toughness? I know he is very young, but he has the best stuff in baseball. If only he could think like a 26 year old…
Second inning, Rangers WE is already 69%.
37: Sacrifice bunts and flies count against OBP, but not batting average.
Not to gloat too much, but I’d like to point out that we were way, way ahead of the curve in recognizing that Tampa/Oakland were better than generally thought.
I bring this up because it is, apparently, the surprise of the season to Blowers that the Devil Rays are this good.
I suppose that’s probably the game-breaker for poor Felix, seeing as though we scored all our runs for the month last nite.
Well bunts don’t count against BA but do count against OBP
We definitely needed to save some of those runs for today!
How is it possible for Lopez’s OBP to be lower than his batting average?
Sacrifice flies go into the denominator for OBP. And Lopez has a lot of them given his ABs so far this season.
Saying this batting order is “bizarre” is too kind.
I’m sorry, but batting Cairo second at first base, that’s Little League managing.
As for all the walks by Mariner pitchers, it will continue to happen because it’s tolerated. Seattle pitchers are constantly behind on counts, 2-0 and 3-1. It’s a situation that has nothing to do with arm speed and mechanics, it’s a mind-set.
The whole organization, from top to bottom, is messed up.
It’s not even so much the mediocrity. I understand that you can’t make chicken salad from chicken feathers, and all of that.
What I can’t understand, however, are hitters who just waste at-bats, pitchers who can’t throw strikes, managers who can’t make out batting orders, general managers who can’t assess talent, club presidents who scold fans for not showing up to watch lousy baseball, and owners who allow all of the above to happen.
watching on gamecast…all of those pitches to Vasquez looked like strikes. Who’s the ump? Were they as close as gamecast told me?
I am heartened by two things — first, that no matter how the M’s are doing I’m still enough of a fan to be saddened to think that with the Thurs/Mon days off, I’ll miss two days of baseball over a five-day period. Second, that no one rose to take the “who’s that smokin’ babe on FSN?” bait.
And, for those who question the value of outfield defense, look at what a potential game-changer the Ibanez lunge has become.
Good thing they got that double play, or the offense would already have an insurmountable hole to climb out of.
OBP = (H + BB + HBP ) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)
IIRC, bunts are not included in OBP since they’re an intentional strategy rather than an outcome.
48 – mostly cuz that “smokin’ babe” was a dude in drag…
The lineup is screwed up but it doesn’t really matter. Lineups don’t have that much of an effect on winning. To actually mess things up effectively up you’d have to do something much crazier like bat in order of ascending OBP. And even then it wouldn’t affect the outcome all that often.
Lineups don’t have that much of an effect on winning.
You mean batting order doesn’t have that much of an effect on winning. Lineups certainly do, hence the complaint about Cairo being in it at all.
This is simplistic. Pitchers with lots of walks are either pitchers with poor control or pitchers who nibble because they don’t have the stuff to get hitters out and have to hope hitters will get themselves out. It doesn’t happen “because it’s tolerated”; if walks from these guys weren’t “tolerated”, the alternative is likely more hits. It’s not a mind-set problem, it’s a personnel problem: they are the kind of pitchers they are.
Similarly, you can tell our hitters all day to take more pitches and not swing at bad pitches, but the fact is we assembled a roster of free swingers and guys with poor strike zone judgment. You can only change so much with a different approach, and any real change is going to happen slower. You can’t just yell at them to stop.
It seems as if J-Mac is spending all his energy trying to prove this wrong.
slower = slowly
52 – I have to disagree. Ichiro is nearly wasted by having Cairo behind him. If your best player is going to be consistently stranded because the guy behind him can’t do his job, it has to affect the outcome.
and…. case closed.
Beltre! Stop doing that! Ack.
Beltre, getting more strikes on himself than any pitcher in baseball.
Yeah, but when you have someone who you expect to literally hit worse than a pitcher batting in the 2-hole, it DOES have a real effect.
Joser: You’re correct, it is sacrifice flies that produce this, not sacrifice bunts, because bunts aren’t counted for either OBP or AB.
Re: Lineups. Do the research. They just don’t matter that much. The difference between the absolute BEST and absolute WORST lineups possible (given a set starting lineup) is about 10 wins over a season. Obviously, that has some effect. But as I said that involves doing something like sorting your lineup with the worst hitters first and the best last, sorted by OBP with slugging playing some role too. Moving one hitter into a ludicrous position has far less effect than you’re imagining.
Why doesn’t Felix throw his cb more?
Pygmalion, I think that’s what he meant — “given a set starting lineup”. If your set starting lineup has Cairo in it, it DOES make a difference. You’re using the word to mean two different things.
Steve: AFAIK the whole argument is about how bad it is that Cairo is batting second rather than ninth.
Thank you. Though I know Mac doesn’t have a lot of options, if he really must play Cairo, why the hell not bat him eighth or ninth? There’s absolutely no rationale whatsoever for him to be batting second.
64 – I’m not sure. I don’t know if anyone has looked into this either. It certainly would make an interesting study to see if he’s more effective when he’s using it.
Speaking of line-up blackholes, I shuddered when I saw it was Betancourt, Joh, and Balentien coming up. And sure enough, three up, three down.
I love the fact that Felix is fighting through this game. Showing some guts tonight.
Hey, Mark McLemore is up on the radio side right now!
God, I miss having him on this team.
Has anyone ever asked Beltre why he appeals his own checked swings?
Felix’s WHIP: 3.00 right now. Not good. Kid is still fighting though.
I wonder if it is the memory of McLemore that makes Mariner fans so happy to fill the team with the likes of Willie Bloomquist and Miguel Cairo.
63 – Since you can’t do actual field studies on the effect of all the various combinations of batting order, how do they “test” all the different batting order combos? Seems like you’d have to look at batting order impact in real games to see what actual effect the different combos would have.
Sort of like the way that the awesome German Chocolate cake I used to eat as a kid leads me to eat much worse German Chocolate now, just because.
74 – Name 1 Mariner fan that likes Miguel Cairo …
WFB on the other hand … there is a place for him as a late inning defensive sub or a pinch runner. dont get carried away here…
Meaning one: where Cairo bats in the lineup. Matters a very small amount.
Meaning two: WHETHER Cairo bats in the lineup. Matters a great deal.
And the Rangers already have their insurmountable lead.
And, at like 45 or so, McLemore could probably: (1) still hit better than Willie, and (2) play circles around Cairo defensively.
Boy, the team looks flat and tired.
I’d hoped that it would be a ‘good’ loss last night, since they shown that they could come back and score more runs than they’ve scored…well, in a really long time. But it’s not looking good right now.
Steve: Yeah, I know. The whole argument is about whether or not batting Cairo behind Ichiro “nullifies” the goodness that it is Ichiro’s batting.
#72
There was an interview with Beltre last night. He says he started appealing because he hates it when the home plate umpire calls a check swing a strike. He believes the home plate umpire can’t focus on the pitch and the bat at the same time.
Would it kill the Mariners to give Felix some run support? I mean, Felix doesn’t look that crisp tonight but he’s still only given up two runs. How hard is it to put up two frickin’ runs?
And the Kason goes rolling along…
That’s what a good defensive 2b looks like.
Whoa. Maychiro with the lack of hustle. If he’d only given it his all he could have been on base right now.
Yes, but they used up their monthly ration of runs against Padilla & Co. last night.
Holy shit! The Texas announcer just mentioned the sabermetric view on close games. I felt enlightened.
1) I don’t think Junior will want to come our team anyways
2) At this point does it even matter?
3) Good thing MaClaren screwed Kenji’s AB up in the second inning.
Pyg, I understand what you’re saying here, and I agree that with a lineup filled with real major league players, hitting a batter in the 3 versus the 4 slot doesn’t make a huge difference. Conceded. What we have here is a hybrid of the two arguments.
Cairo is batting second, not ninth. He’s utterly worthless. He’s basically a living, breathing clothes hanger. Putting him behind Ichiro wastes Ichiro when he’s on base because Cairo’s incapable of doing his job. If he was in the 8 or 9 hole, he would not have an impact on the game to such a great degree, therefore, it impacts the result of the game to a greater degree than with a normal player.
Did the TV just utter the words “Cairo, nice job?”
If Emil Brown is second in the AL in RBI it should tell you a lot about the value of RBI as a predictive stat.
92 – Dave Sims. ‘Nuff Said.
It’s like Cairo can hear us ragging on him, somehow….
A hit so rare it’s covered under the endangered species act.
Charge the mound Raul!
red, I agree that at a certain level of ineptitude, it would indeed make a great difference where someone batted. For example, if I were playing for the Mariners, it would be in their interest to have me bat ninth because my OPS would probably be around .016. And even that would be due to luck.
But I don’t think that Cairo is as bad as you are thinking he is. I don’t think that he is .125/.269/.182 bad. That is the product of a small sample size. He is probably more like .225/.290/.300 bad, which is admittedly awful, but probably not so bad that batting him second would cost the team more than a few wins over a whole season.
Well, we are doing it pretty loudly.
For some reason, I have a hard time picturing Raul charging the mound even in Little League.
When I try to imagine Raul charging the mound, it ends with his holding the pitcher in a head lock and giving him a noogie.
OMG, Kenji!
Or chasing the pitcher around like he does a ball in left field, as I like to describe it, like an old lady chasing her last chicken around the yard.
Sweet. I love relief pitchers who seem to believe in clearing the bases of the previous pitcher’s runners.
yay! tied ballgame! thank goodness for pitch-counts.
remember how shocking it was when Edgar went out after Lou Pote?
clutch KJoe
Apparently Kenji owed some sort of karmic debt to the baseball gods, but has made right with this Ronald McDonald House business.
You know it’s been a long season already when Niehaus doesn’t even sound all that enthusiastic when the M’s have a rally going.
I feel the same way. When I see Raul going after a loose ball out there I shout at the TV, “kill it, Raul, kill it”.
WHAT THAT WAS NOT A STRIKE. Terrible call blue. Terrible Call.
Almost peed my pants when I saw that…too funny!
108 – I’ve been trying to ignore that fact, because it just makes me feel so bad for him.
Well, Dave’s seen enough of these games that he knew how that inning was going to end.
Since Raul is about as mobile in left as the mid-fielders on a foosball table, I’ve often wondered how tired Mac’s arms get down in the dugout pulling the levers back and forth.
Did you see the way Cairo ignited that rally? THAT is why he’s on the roster.
110 – Jspektor Why do you even care? Stop getting heated about one pitch
Sadly enough, that was one of the very few occurrences when a bunt increased a team’s win expectancy.
Okay, I’m laughing that endless, low laugh of a madman.
At least I’m not talking to myself yet, like Jspektor. As long as yelling at the TV doesn’t count.
I think I concur with that statement
Argh…burned by the blazing speed of Gerald Laird.
is it wrong of me to want Felix out of this game, away from chirpy Rangers, and any chance of losing his temper?
and is it wrong of me to wonder if a certain 39 year old outfielder with bad hammies & knees would play a better LF than Raul?
Yeah, but with the way this season is going it’s only a matter of time before all of us either give up entirely or follow the slow twisting trail to madness.
That’s got to be just about it for Felix. 113 pitches through six.
It was a contest between the blazing speed of Laird and the rocket arm of Ibanez. We see the result.
Although, on the TV side, they had decided Laird was one of the fastest running catchers in the AL. Which is never saying much, but anyway.
Dammit…Web Gems Whore.
Well, Laird did have six steals in 120 games last year…so when I think about it now, I suppose that isn’t horrible for a catcher.
Can anyone tell me the score? I can’t get gameday to load…AHHH!
3-2 Rangers.
thanks…
*cringe*
Go M’s!!
Gotta give Hamilton props, that was a nice catch.
Dave Sims, “All universe catch!” Right Dave…..
This discussion just about died out once Texas scored their 3rd run.
jose is doing fine so far in this 1st half. Do it in the 2nd as well for your family and fans.
Spoke too soon.
Actually, guys, here’s a suggestion for a stress-buster…if ya haven’t already, check out your favorite novelty store and see if they have any of those imitation cinder blocks made out of soft foam rubber. I’ve been using them for years, as they make handy-dandy TV bricks!
130 – seriously sims is literally out of his mind. That is the biggest exaggeration I’ve heard out of him so far this year. sad thing is he meant it.
That’s awesome. I should give it a try!
Speaking of madness, that FSN music that the Rangers play on every great play is hella annoying.
It could also serve to fake out some kids on Halloween. “Have some candy – and a cinder block to the head!”
Or is that too old school?
Yet another mental mistake by your Seattle Mariners. MaClaren really knows how to get them to focus.
Looked to me like Cairo got the tag, but it’s hard to tell.
Makes me glad I’ve been spending the game converting Dave’s Future Forty to a page up top.
you know what, I’m sick of our lack of focus. I solely blame that on Johnny Mac. End of story. Silva earlier in the year said “Our team lacks focus”. You know what the is some CRAP.
These guys are major leaguers and are better than that. I dont understand how we can be so mentally weak.
It’s disgusting.
P.S.: The ones that look like rocks and are about the size of those ergo-squeezies work the best, since they’re the easiest to hurl — though one of those soft ergo-baseballs that they sell at the team stores will work, too.
BTW…Apocalypse Update: Rivera allowed his first run of the year tonight as the Yanks got spanked by TB…Go Rays!
Thank goodness we have Balentien in right field. Oops.
You know for our team being spoiled with so many magnificent Defenders over the years (Griffey, Cameron, Vizquel) I don’t see who we ever could have thought this team was good.
And speaking of the urge to hurl, tonight’s game is now officially out of reach, thank you. >:(
Woo! Rays win in extras against the Yanks again!
I’ve always rooted against the Yankees, but now that I follow the Rays too it’s just gravy…
Oh well, I still enjoy watching the about half of the Mariners lineup when they bat. Clement here being one of the ones that I enjoy…
Is the conversion done, Derek? I still see March 4, and the columns are wonky.
We look pathetic. Keep smiling Yuni all the way to the bank.
Get these guys out of my face. Bring in the dump truck.
Eddie wants this save, 123…….
Boom.
Insult to injury; Eddie gets the save.
…And officially DONE!
Another stellar effort tonight for your Bad News Bears! >:(
insult to injury: weve lost 11 of 13. insult to injury: we dont even focus.
I feel bad for Ichiro, looks like he’s mailing it in too.
This whole squad is mailing it in
31 errors in 41 games ?????????
I R a Pro…..
DEREK
is there a stat measuring lack of focus
Whats-Her-Face (A.K.A. Non-Zaloumis-Woman) could barely keep a straight face at all the errors… Funniest thing I’ve seen all night. Yeah, even funnier than 4 errors.
Loser – Noun – a person or team who is incompetent or unable to succeed; also : something doomed to fail or disappoint
Pathetic – adjective – pitifully inferior or inadequate, absurd, laughable
Anemic – adjective – lacking force, vitality, or spirit
Your Seattle Mariners.
I’m going to start watching M’s games with “Yakety Sax” playing on a loop. That song makes anything seem like a lark.
Whew…sure glad I didn’t waste my money, liver and brain cells down at the bar tonight, like I usually do for Felix Day!
Oh, well…as they say, misery does love company. Thanks guys (and gals)!
(P.S.: One more quick quip for the road…Niehaus just asked Rizzs if he’s ever played bingo. If I were Rizzy at this point, I be tempted to answer, “No, but I’m considering taking up Russian Roulette!”
)
Niehaus asking about bingo? Is he trying to seem old?
Just think. There are still 4.5 more months of this brand of Mariner baseball to look forward to!!! (Insert your preferred emoticon here.)
I’m surprised that jspektor can still work up the passion to get angry at a loss. Myself, I’ve come to accept the M’s ineptitude, and watch the games more out of a sense of duty than anything.
Or maybe I’m just a masochist.
I’m surprised that jspektor can still work up the passion to get angry at a loss.
If he stopped using “we” to refer to the team — as if he’s actually on it, or something — it might be easier for him to get the necessary rational distance.