15 May
Braun’s deal
Ryan Braun signed a monster deal through 2015 for $45m.
I had two thoughts:
- for all my disagreement with the way revenue sharing’s been implemented, seeing teams lock up their youngsters to huge, long deals is exactly what it was supposed to help with, and it’s helped that
- Felix
Isn’t there more risk with pitchers, though? After 2 full seasons, wouldn’t a lot of fans have been pushing for the Cubs to do the same thing with Prior? Or is Prior more of an anomaly?
May 15th, 2008 at 12:05 pmWhat a nice sign. Now the M’s just need to follow suit.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:07 pmDusty Baker > Mark Prior’s arm
Unfortunately I feel Felix will do the right thing and leave this awful franchise in a few years.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:13 pmWow, 8 years-$45M. What a great deal for the Brewers. Even if he stays in left that’s super cheap. Goodness. Also, the Rays signed Scott Kazmir to a 3-year extension.
And what do the M’s do? They sign their 30+ year old catcher to a 3 year extention blocking their top minor league hitter. Very nice.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:15 pmWhat a nice signing for the Brewers. Seems even a little low eh? Youngest to 40 homeruns, look out Barry!
May 15th, 2008 at 12:23 pmSo shouldn’t we have, say, spent Silva’s money on locking up Felix (or throwing Zito/Santana money at Bedard?
May 15th, 2008 at 12:24 pmAlthough we have been run poorly recently, I pray to god this doesn’t happen.
I really don’t think the FO likes losing … maybe they are making all the wrong decisions, but they CANNOT like losing.
NO ONE likes losing.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:27 pmFirst off (for the math challenged (me), how many years of arbitration did Milwaukee buy to get Braun signed (2, or 3?)
How many more years do we have felix under club control before we have to worrying?
Bavasi has been proactive about locking up the youngsters. This should be fun. Blank checks to Bedard and Felix?
May 15th, 2008 at 12:29 pmPerhaps a better comparison (because he’s a pitcher) is Kazmir, who just signed a 3-year deal. From Rotoworld:
The Rays agreed to terms with LHP Scott Kazmir on a three-year, $28.5 million contract with a club option for 2012.
The Rays buy out his first year of free agency and get an option for the second.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:34 pmIt seems that Felix has no incentive to sign right now, especially with Bavasi likely on his way out. Were I in Felix’s shoes I would rather take my chances with the new regime than sign a long term contract with this franchise in its current state.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:39 pmHe wouldn’t be signing the deal with Bavasi, he’d be signing the deal with the team.
So from his perspective, you listen to what Bavasi’s offering, and if it’s not what you want, yeah, then you re-visit with the next guy.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:42 pmIf Felix keeps pitching like he has been for the last three years will anyone be surprised when he’s not worth the big bucks we’d all like to think he is? He flounders so much. When is he gonna get good and stay good?
May 15th, 2008 at 12:45 pmFelix is already very, very good.
He’s also 21.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:53 pmIf I was Felix I would want to deal with Bavasi….look he gave big money to Washburn and Silva. You could say to Bavasi that if those replacement level pitchers are worth so much what do you think a real major league pitcher should get?
Does anyone know how many times Washburn has pitched more than 6 innings since he has been an “M”?
May 15th, 2008 at 12:56 pm13 -
best stuff in baseball I think without a question … although he is showing signs of Freddy Garcia mental toughness.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:56 pmFelix is good.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:57 pmf Felix keeps pitching like he has been for the last three years will anyone be surprised when he’s not worth the big bucks we’d all like to think he is? He flounders so much. When is he gonna get good and stay good?
People who say this have absolutely no perspective. Go find comparables who pitched seasons in the majors at the same age as Felix. We’ll wait.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:59 pmimmaturity at 22 is a whole different thing than immaturity at 27.
I gather there were preliminary talks during spring about a long-term deal; dunno if they shelved them as the season began, or if they are still talking, as happened with Johjima.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:04 pmI think that after last night’s awesome clutch performance, we should lock up Cairo to a long term deal…
May 15th, 2008 at 1:27 pmHonestly, the mere thought of losing Felix hurts almost as much / if not more than the day we found out A-Rod left for Texas.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:28 pmPeople who say this have absolutely no perspective. Go find comparables who pitched seasons in the majors at the same age as Felix. We’ll wait.
Totally. It’s a friggin’ short list. Hoyt, Catfish, Jack Taylor…maybe Feller and Gooden and Kazmir. There are so few ballplayers, especially pitchers who are established veterans by the time they’re of legal drinking age. His hit totals don’t look awesome because of the shi**y defense behind him. And his W/L record looks less than stellar because of the shi**y offense. He’s been a one-man army out there.
I *heart* Felix.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:30 pmIs there any reason to worry about Felix? Ks are down, BBs are way up, GB% is down quite a bit while LD% and FB% are up.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:31 pmRelative to the supply of good pitching available in the majors, Felix is *well* worth a l/t contract. The time to lock him up is now, otherwise he’s going to be on the Yankees or Red Sox.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:34 pmI don’t know how many times people need Felix’ age, relative to the age of almost every HOF pitcher ever when he first showed signs of dominance at the major league level, pointed out to them before they understand that he’s way ahead of schedule on the path to greatness. If anyone in the entire game should be locked up in one of these contracts, it’s gotta be Felix. I would sign him to a lifetime contract right now if I could.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:38 pmIs there any reason to worry about Felix? Ks are down, BBs are way up, GB% is down quite a bit while LD% and FB% are up.
Meh. Look at his FIP the last 3 years 3.91, 3.76, 3.80. It’s not like there are some terrible warning signs or something, I believe. It’d be great to see him improve my leaps and bounds I have no doubt it’s gonna be all good.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:41 pmOf course, we’re ignoring the Hebrew Hammer here. Are there any plans to move him back to 3rd? Brewer fans I’ve talked said his defense was never as bad as last year.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:44 pmI love Felix, but there are more pitchers who were excellent at or before 22 than the ones on galaxieboy’s list. Gary Nolan, Fernando Valenzuela, Don Gullett, Don Drysdale, Dennis Eckersley, Frank Tanana, Bret Saberhagen… I agree both that Felix is on the road to greatnesss, and that it would be encouraging to see more signs of advancement. Not sure that’s likely to happen here, though.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:47 pmWhile absolutely accepting Felix’s greatness, his age actually works against him in my opinion, when it comes to considering a long-term deal. How many pitchers that are starting in the majors by the time they’re 22 make it through their age 22-25 seasons without suffering at least one serious arm injury? Is it even better than 50%? And Felix has logged even more innings than average. Honestly, what are the chances, given his history, his delivery, and what we know about the injury nexus for young pitchers, that he would make it through a 5-year contract without hurting his arm?
May 15th, 2008 at 1:52 pmDrysdale is in the Hall along with Eck. Tanana has more than a few supporters for his induction. Saberhagen and Fernando were friggin’ AWESOME until derailed by injury, or in Fernando’s case a question of his actual age. There’s always going to be injury concerns with any ballplayer. There enough examples of hugely successful pitchers who are Felix’s comps that it doesn’t really concern me.
Oh, if Felix has a career anything like Drysdale’s I will literally crap my pants.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:59 pmESPN Poll: Which Pitcher would you like to build your team around?
Roy Halladay
Jake Peavy
CC Sabathia (…..)
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
The King didn’t even get a mention.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:59 pmIt seems like some folks are assuming that because he’s young, Felix is going to develop into a better pitcher as he ages. For hitters, this is a reasonable assumption. For pitchers, it isn’t. Now, the fact is, he’s already one of the best pitchers in baseball, so you don’t need to assume he’s going to get better to justify a long-term deal or even to say he’s on the “path to greatness”. You do, though, need to weigh the risk of injury.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:01 pmMy understanding is that Braun more than likely had 2 more years (after this current season) of club controlled salary before he was eligible for arbitration. The new contract for Braun stipulates that if Braun should qualify as a Super 2 that the contract value would increase by $6 MIL. They essentially bought out 2 years of free agency (maybe 3).
May 15th, 2008 at 2:02 pmRyan Braun career unintentional BB & K numbers
2007: 28 uBB, 112 K
2008: 6 uBB, 33 K
For those who like percentages:
May 15th, 2008 at 2:08 pm2007: 5.7% uBB, 22.8% K
2008: 3.5% uBB, 19.1% K
They essentially bought out 2 years of free agency (maybe 3).
I believe that’s what rotoworld reported, yes.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:08 pmThat’s a huge deal for the Brewers. I’m shocked Braun took it. I don’t know when his current deal is/was up, but I’m sure his market value was more than $5.625mil/year - he just came off a 1.000+ OPS season!
His deal’s going to look like tiddly-winks by 2013 or so, when he’s in his prime. What are the odds he holds out and looks to renegotiate?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:09 pm31 - I think the idea is that as he spends more time in the majors he will get better at learning how to utilize his talent and learn how to face guys two or three times in the same game. There is more to pitching than just raw talent.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:13 pmTrue, but I think Braun may well be that rare breed of player who can rake without taking walks. And I mean rake.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:16 pmHis deal’s going to look like tiddly-winks by 2013 or so, when he’s in his prime. What are the odds he holds out and looks to renegotiate?
I kinda think it looks like tiddly-winks now, nevermind in 2013. He knew what he was getting into. Maybe Ryan really likes Mil and the direction they’re going in?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:20 pmWhen haven’t already made $25mil I imagine that the threat of injury and a missed opportunity to cash in may loom pretty large. I think you are probably correct that one he has 10mil+ in the bank that he may take a different view of that contract.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:20 pmBraun’s defense at 3B has always been worse than bad. Every scouting report I read on him during his brief minor league said a position change would be necessary. I’m going off of memory, but I read someplace during the offseason that Braun’s defensive performance at 3B was one the absolute worst in MLB history — so bad in fact that his negative defensive value erased approximately 75% of his offensive value. It may have been a BP article.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:22 pmWorse than Chipper? Because it’s pretty hard to match Chipper’s long and distinguished history of defensive awfulness.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:23 pmBraun’s defense at 3B has always been worse than bad. Every scouting report I read on him during his brief minor league said a position change would be necessary
I remember that too, but no one ever thought it was gonna nearly that bad. I’m gonna try to dig up his scouting reports from a couple years ago.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:23 pmHere are Felix’s top-10 PECOTA comps, and a brief summary of their career projections. All these guys started pitching in the majors at the ages of 18-20.
1) Bonderman. Too soon to say, but he has been bad this year, his age 25 season, and people assume he’s injured. If the Tigers had signed him to a long-term deal at the age of 22, they’d be regretting it at this point.
2) Drysdale. Great until the age of 32, when his greatness ended abruptly.
3) Larry Dierker. His age 25 season was his last great one. Got hurt, and after that he was average at best.
4) Blylevin. No problems. Very good for a long time.
5) Dean Chance. Age 27 was his last good one.
6) Saberhagen. Age 25 season was his last great one. Hurt at 26, good year at 27, hurt again at 28, and then some pretty good but not great years.
7) Bob Moose. Age 25 year was his last good one.
9) Milt Pappas. First bad year at 27, and done being anything better than average at that point.
10) Gooden. Injured at 24, off and on thereafter, but age 23 was his last great year.
So… I think the lessen here is if you’re going to sign Felix to a long-term deal, you need to assume he has 4 years of greatness left in him, tops. There are only 2 guys in Felix’s top 10 comparables that made it past the age of 27 without suffering a serious decline.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:24 pmI’m not seeing why you would base your contract decisions on the top ten comparable players from any projection system.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:32 pmThat’s just not the way it works, though. Look at the career arcs of any of those guys in the list of Felix’s top 10 comparables above. Their very best seasons are their 2nd-5th. Yes, he will get better at learning how to use is raw physical ability, but at the same time, his raw physical ability has already peaked.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:32 pmI think that list perfectly illustrates the risk associated with pitchers who pitched as many innings as Felix in the majors at such a young age. That risk, along with your projection of Felix’s ability, one of the two key variables in evaluating a long-term contract. Isn’t it?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:35 pmInteresting. I don’t like the Bonderman comparison, though. He throws one of the straightest fastballs in the game. Just going on pure stuff and movement (tons of both), Drysdale and Saberhagen might be the best comps
May 15th, 2008 at 2:35 pmThat’s just not the way it works, though.
I’m not buying that.
And I can’t belive Felix’s number 1 comp is Bonderman.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:40 pmNo, it doesn’t illustrate that at all, for any number of reasons. Let’s start with a big one.
Felix’s similarity score is 19.
19.
19.
19.
Or, to put this another way, even if accept the rest of your argument, which I don’t, PECOTA is unable to find particularly similar players. You’re drawing comparisons with players who aren’t substantially like him.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:40 pmThere’s certainly more risk to signing a young pitcher to such a long deal, but doesn’t a team have much more incentive to keep said pitcher healthy if they’re tied to them for several years?
Really, these are win-win deals for team and player.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:40 pmI owe et a Coke apparently.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:42 pmCoke Cherry Zero, if I may.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:44 pmFelix’s similarity score is 19.
That’s sick. Isn’t that like Ichiro’s similarity score? I thought there’s disclaimer saying pretty much, ‘If the score is below 30 (or something) disregard’.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:44 pmOverall, it seems like a smart move by Milwaukee.
Beyond that, I am extremely jealous of the lineup the Brew Crew is assembling. Over the next two years, they will have the following mashers in their batting order:
Braun
Fielder
Hart
LaPorta
Gamel (assuming he can play defense somewhere)
Weeks (I am still high on him despite his struggles)
Name one Mariner who is likely to mash like those guys over the next five years. Beltre? Clement? Balentien?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:47 pm54 -
Adam Jones?
Too soon?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:48 pmOver the next two years, they will have the following mashers in their batting order:
Talk about Harvey’s Wallbangers. Even if their pitching doesn’t hold together they’re going to be a blast to watch.
*jealous*
May 15th, 2008 at 2:49 pmI am familiar with the similarity scores displayed on the player pages at baseball-reference.com, but where does the 19 for Felix come from? Would somebody please be so kind to enlighten me with a link or some belittling commentary?
May 15th, 2008 at 2:53 pmEven with all the shuffling the Brewers defense is still a nightmare. Not as big a nightmare as ours…
May 15th, 2008 at 2:54 pmFrom BP’s Pecota page:
Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a player’s comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the player’s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established.
Note, though, that individual similarity scores for the 10 listed above are higher than 19.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:59 pmbut where does the 19 for Felix come from? Would somebody please be so kind to enlighten me with a link or some belittling commentary?
Each player gets a score based upon how, I don’t know, how easy (?) it is to comp them to other players. Ichiro’s is really low. There hasn’t been many players like him. The higher the score the more comfortable PECOTA is comping their projected careers I assume. I gave up paying for BPro so someone else can probably explain it better.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:00 pmUh huh. Please feel free to erase my previous post.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:01 pmSpeaking of deals, hopefully the M’s will lock this kid up. Copied from Stark’s Rumblings:
• WHO WANTS TO BE A $6-MILLIONAIRE: Two weeks ago in Rumblings, we wrote about the buzz building around 16-year-old Dominican pitcher Michel Inoa. One scouting director told us this week the Yankees and Mariners are already sending signals they’re prepared to throw $3 million to $4 million at Inoa — which would double the largest bonus ever for a Dominican pitcher — “and it wouldn’t surprise me if somebody eventually goes to $6 million.” Whew. The bidding doesn’t open until July 2, if you want to mark your calendars.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pmMany thanks, Dan. If there were a way I could subscribe to BP without my wife to kicking me in the tool box, I would be all over it.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:04 pmFor comparison purposes, here are some similarity scores for other players:
Braun — 46
Ichiro — 19
Felix — 19
Pujols — 29 (Really? I thought he’d be lower.)
Ankiel — 19 (!!!)
Bonds — 0 (Did you have any doubt?)
May 15th, 2008 at 3:05 pmGlad to see the Brewers finally have the money to offer contracts like this and keep some of the players they draft and bring up in their farm system.
What I notice the most about this deal is that the guy was drafted by the team three years ago. This is what the M’s need to start doing more often. Free agency and trades haven’t worked for this team. It’s time for this team to start focusing on using players they draft and to start coaching them to play in the pitcher’s park they play in.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:10 pmHow does your wife feel about USSM? What makes BP toolbox-kick-worthy?
Or is a general money-for-baseball issue?
May 15th, 2008 at 3:34 pmNectar of the gods. I am afraid it is going to end up like that Seinfeld episode with the allegedly non-fat yogurt.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:50 pmUgh. Apologies for the bquote fiasco. It is getting late in the day.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:50 pmI’m kind of surprised that Roger Clemens doesn’t come up as a comparable to Felix.
Success at a young age? Check.
Good strike out rate? Check.
Good groundball rate? Check.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:53 pmCoke Cherry Zero, if I may.
Nectar of the gods. I am afraid it is going to end up like that Seinfeld episode with the allegedly non-fat yogurt.
I tried drinking that and the Cherry tastes just like the regular. Also, any of the Zero sodas have to be ice friggin’ cold to drink.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:55 pmYeah, but I wasn’t making any sort of argument about Felix’s projected ability. I was simply showing what happens to most pitchers who start pitching in the majors at a young age. Every single one has great raw ability - that’s how they made it to majors so early - but most of them have relatively short careers, peaking in their low 20’s, and ceasing to be great by the time they’re 27. In fact, if you look at the next 10 PECOTA comps - again, guys who started in the majors around the age of 19 - you see a bunch more guys who flamed out early. I made this point in response to a number of commenters seeming to assume that Felix would get better simply because he was getting older.
I’m not sure what part of my argument you’re disagreeing with, exactly, since my argument is simply that a pitcher with Felix’s history is a particularly risky investment in comparison to a guy like Braun who probably has not even peaked yet and does not have nearly the injury risk associated with him.
As I pointed out initially, a much more realistic comparison is Kazmir, whom the Rays just signed to a 3 year deal. That seems like a much more apt comparison, and a much better idea, than the Braun deal (or the Longoria deal or Pujols deal or whatever).
May 15th, 2008 at 3:59 pmClemens wasn’t established in the majors until he was 23. Very different.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pmAnd really - worst case, don’t tell her.
I don’t feel the need to enumerate my online purchases for my spouse.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:10 pmI don’t feel the need to enumerate my online purchases for my spouse.
Yeah, my wife and I discuss anything over like $100 or so. It’s the honor system other than that.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:42 pmHey Jeff Nye,
Flix Hernandez had a Birthdayday, as many of us do every year, He’s now 22.
For U guys not dicussing everything with your wives I would suggest you do if you want them in the game. Just the opinion of a guy with the same woman for 41 years. Love them or leave them!!!
May 15th, 2008 at 6:28 pmThis has to be one of my favorite posts ever.
May 15th, 2008 at 7:10 pmI dont even wan’t my wife to like baseball. or sports for that matter.
how else am I supposed to get away?
May 15th, 2008 at 10:32 pmThe accumulation of roto entry fees, MLB Extra Innings, golf, coaching the neighbor kids in the cage after work and the occasional pilgrimage to Safeco has driven my wife to the brink of sanity, or so she says. Do I complain about her pedicures, hair appointments, new clothes, nights out with the ladies and ever-growing surplus of peach oatmeal scrubs and sh^t? Hell no. I’m a firm believer in marital karma. Some day, the Mariners will make it to the World Series, and when they do, I will throw my stockpile of marital karma in her oatmeal-scrubbed face and see all 7 games in person . . . assuming I am still alive by then.
May 15th, 2008 at 11:59 pm