The Rotation
Dave · May 23, 2008 at 7:54 pm · Filed Under Mariners
The Mariners built this team around a pitching rotation of “five number ones”.
The Mariners rotation has a 5.27 ERA, second worst in baseball.
This is why you don’t build a team around a pitching staff.
Comments
USSM uses and recommends
yeah. that was a good one.
It says something about the Mariners front office that they consider Washburn, Silva and Batista number ones.
More like a couple of want-to-be No. 1’s and three No. 5’s, and we know who they are.
More like a couple of want-to-be No. 1’s and three No. 5’s, and we know who they are. Anyway, your sarcasm caused to at least crack a smile after watching the M’s get slaughtered yet again.
Dave, please remind us why the team isn’t as bad as it looks. It’s becoming a lot harder to believe that this isn’t a 105 loss team.
I think the magnitude of suck by the M’s finally caused LL to go down for good.
And conversely, if you build a team solely around hitting like the mid ’90’s Mariners, don’t expect to much further than the first round of the playoffs (and yes, I know we had Randy Johnson, but that’s it).
The fact is, it’s not pitching that wins championships or even hitting that wins championships. If you want to win championships, you have to be good in EVERYTHING on the field.
Hitting, pitching, fielding, speed, depth, coaching, etc.
And the teams with the best balance of these things will usually find themselves playing very late into October.
It’s just that simple.
If we start the firesale now, the better the chance of us getting the #1 pick next year. Seattle Mariners baseball, ladies and gentlemen!
Reasons for hope:
Washburn’s FIP is only a couple hundredths of a point higher than what it’s been the past few years. His XFIP is the lowest it’s been in the last five years. His LOB% is 59% – insanely low, the equivalent of his unsustainable 81.8% in his last Angels year. LD% is 22.9% – that sounds really really high. Regression to the mean could mean huge improvement here.
Batista’s FIP is only up about .14 from last year, and XFIP is up only .05. LOB% is way down. LD% is pretty high. Some regression to the mean could help out here, too.
DONG, DONG, DONG, DONG….
DONG, DONG, DONG, DONG!!!
The sounds of the Yankees run scoring chime. I think it’s going to be in my brain for a while now after the amount of runs the Yankees scored.
All I can do is laugh right now. I have never, ever seen anything like this display of baseball.
By “hope” I mean “the hope of avoiding a 100 loss season”.
#10: It actually sounds like the clock tower over at WSU.
Beyond delusional. Way beyond. We have two at best, and neither of them has managed to pitch like it for more than a game or two in a row this year, if even that. Of course, you could have a dozen “number ones,” but they can’t all throw a CG SO every time, so your weak defense and complete inability to provide run support when necessary become a real liability. We might regress to the mean and start winning some games, but what good is that when your mean is “SUCK.”
The 2008 Seattle Mariners: Is it football season yet?
Bad news:
Bedard’s FIP and XFIP are 5.00 and 4.38, either the highest or second highest in the past five years. His LOB% of 78.7% is actually pretty good, and higher than you would expect. So there is no hope of regression on that front. His GB% is down. His BB/9 is up. He hasn’t been pitching like a number one, obviously.
Holy F Balls ! Did Dave just use ERA to describe the Mariners rotations performance? I don’t think he’d let Patrick Sullivan get away with that.
Middling news:
Felix is mostly okay, as his FIP is identical to last year, and XFIP is up only .28. However, his GB% is way down to 49.2%. Also worrisome, but easily correctable: a significant spike in his use of his fastball, from 57% to 64.6% at the expense of his slider and curve ball.
Silva is Silva. His GB% is down, but only 5% and that could be luck and noise. His LOB% of 67.8% looks a little low. But his HR/FB rate looks way too low, at 7.0%. That’s not sustainable. So, mixing this all together, maybe we just get more of the same from him.
It is a good thing that we changed the entire coaching staff from last year except the hitting coach. Just think what the record would be with last years coaching staff.
One of the biggest lies in baseball is pitching wins ball games.
Sure pitching helps…but there are two other cogs, Offense and Defense. The Seattle Mariners don’t have a single cog running right now.
The Offense is limp and anemic. Without a pure clutch hitter on the roster, and the bad luck fortune of poor Adrian Beltre this offense isn’t going to get much better. The team is ok with sending Clement down even though Vidro shared the same OPS with more AB’s.
The Defense is down right puke worthy. We are quickly finding out Yuni is not as advertised. Ibanez continues to cost us run after to run with the worst range I have ever seen. Lopez continues to amaze me with his lack of range as well. Sexson is as Slow and ever and I believe that without Ichiro and Beltre we just might be averaging more than an error a game.
The starting pitching was great for the first month, but the pen let us down. Now Both are bad.
The Mariners don’t have anything. I wish we hadn’t won 88 games last year…because if we hadn’t we would still have 5 very good players to help us out in the near future.
But no the would be following through, on a plan.
Yeah,
Even with positive expectations for the back 3,
no one with half a brain should have said, or believed, that Silva, Washburn and Batista were “Number 1″ type of guys.
One of my faves as well!
2005 Starting Rotation: Franklin, Meche, Pineiro, Sele, Moyer
2006 Starting Rotation: Felix, Meche, Pineiro, Washburn, Moyer
2007 Starting Rotation: Felix, Weaver, Batista, Washburn, Horrible Ram
2008 Starting Rotation: Felix, Bedard, Silva, Washburn, Batista
Two questions:
how the heck did we win 88 games last year?
what would we look like now if held onto Pineiro and Moyer?
Quote of the year
Playing on this team and seeing what’s happening around me, I feel that something is beginning to fall apart,” Suzuki said through a translator. “But, if I was not in the situation and I was objectively watching what had happened to this team in the past week, I would probably be drinking a lot of beers and brewing it.”
What kind of beer?
“Usually I enjoy Japanese beer, but given the situation, if I was objectively watching the game, I wouldn’t care if it was Japanese beer, American beer or beer from Papua New Guinea,” he said.
I don’t know why I ever doubted Bavasi’s ability to turn around a franchise. In the span of one week, look what Bavasi has accomplished in Detroit and New York.
23-
I love Ichiro when he is honest. I feel the worst for him. First year here 116 wins…and no championship. Now 7 years later, still nothing.
Poor Griffey, Poor Edgar, Poor Ichiro
Not only nothing, but the team around him is not in the general vicinity of even bothering to show up
Ichiro is not a winner. His giving up on that catchable ball in the 5th (I think) was a door opener for the Yanks continuing the big inning. A little extension maybe? Or God forbid, maybe get his pants dirty with a minor dive for the ball. What a joke. Argues a punch out which then results in muffing an outfield out, and then makes a offline poor throw to the plate which results in another run for NY. I don’t buy the story on his value. In fact I think the opposite. Get the interpreter for the interview….
That is hilarious
25: Methinks poor Ichi may be the modern-day Eddie Collins…one of the greatest players of his day, he makes it all the way to the post-season — only to get gypped out of a ring due to circumstances beyond his control (i.e. teammates who were trying to throw the World Series).
Apples and oranges, perhaps…though as destiny would have it, poor Eddie never got another chance.
Hey guys, look on the bright side, we are going to get a great draft pick next year!
Though to add, Collins did get rings earlier with the A’s and White Sox…
Maybe I should’ve cited Ernie Banks instead.
27 – Excuse Ichiro in trying to keep himself from getting injured in a standard flyball. Your not even close…
Steve Nelson (24) — … look what Bavasi has accomplished in Detroit and New York.
Made me chuckle, and recall a bit from the M’s Braniac of Strategy on the Field and Team Leadership post game interview tonight — it was something about how other teams out there turned things around with 3 solid, “clean” wins. He mentioned Detroit, Baltimore, and NY!
“A clean game” to turn “things” around. Huh.
Clean the house.
Yeah…doin’ a heck of a job, Billy!
You are wrong. Let’s just get that out of the way. You are not just run of the mill wrong, either. You are embarrassingly wrong. You are point-at-you-and-laugh wrong.
But I think my favorite way in which you were wrong in your bargain bin collection of wrong was this:
What the hell?
And what was the interpreter crack about?
Bavasi: Baseball Nepotism at its finest.
24.) Bavasi has become the Isiah Thomas of the MLB! Not good
OK, I’ll grant that this team doesn’t have five No. 1s. Obviously, that is not the case.
Still, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to perform better than this. And while Silva, Washburn and Batista have been poor, it’s now spread to Bedard and Hernandez, too.
My point is, lack of talent can’t be blamed for the total collapse. Something is amiss with virtually every pitcher and player on the roster.
Dumb comments make ponies weep.
Look at it this way…they may be lacking in #1’s, but at least they’re playing like #2’s.
So we now have the answer to Austin Powers’ famous question: Who is number two’s boss?
John McLaren.
If people keep blathering about fucking ponies, I’m going to have to de-camp to Lookout Landing more often. It wasn’t all that funny two months ago…
[inviting flame wars is not a useful contribution to discussion]
wheeee. please go then, cause ponies is waht you gonna get!
Could you at least make the pony references amusing then?
It’s been a couple of hours since I had a sherbet, and I’m a bit petulant.
Ponies ponies ponies.
Are ponies really any less annoying than the constant “you jerks are all negative and hate the mariners blergh blergh blergh” comments?
At least I can do something with those comments, Derek. Or better, sit back and read while you or Dave Cameron or some other interested party lacerate the upstart.
The prattle about ponies just baffles me. The joke played itself out weeks ago. I suppose it’s harmless; I just feel like kicking the dog because I’ve argued with the missus.
Back from LL, btw. It’s a nice place Jeff’s got, but I like the view here better.
It could always be worse, though…after all, Rizzs is still rambling on yet about how great that ALDS series back in ‘95 against the Yanks was.
I met Rizzs once. He scares me.
This will cheer Colm up.
There’s a special corner of hell for you m’dear. One where they show Care Bears movies.
What if Bavasi signed Cheer Bear to DH for us? He (it is a he, right?)can’t be any worse than Turbo.
Oh yeah he could. I have the “Forever Friends” DVD within a few feet of me right now – hidden from my children in case they ever insist on watching it again. It’s gallingly bad – way worse than Barbie Fairytopia. It has an eerie, pointlessness to it, as if made to appeal to people who are wasted on heroin.
At least Turbo’s fat enough that we could use him as a draught-excluder.
50: I did, too…at one of the Fan Fests some years back. Seemed liked a personable enough guy…however, his “Hey folks, let’s remember the good old days!” schtick that he starts every time he knows the team is playing like crap and doesn’t have anything better to talk about on the air gets really annoying after a while. I mean, geez, twenty years from now, even if we haven’t been to the WS yet, he’ll still be talking about how great the ‘95 and ‘01 seasons were.
Nah, it’s the creepy, patently-faked affability.
I just had a brainwave: With the perma-tan and the glinting teeth and shiney eyes, Rizzs reminds me of George Hamilton playing a vampire in Love at First Bite.
Ah, I remember that movie — where George Hamilton actually becomes Dracula (er, sort of)!
Interestingly, during a game in which we were getting blown out last year and our thoughts started to drift elsewhere, someone had mentioned that they always thought Rizzy reminded them of Neil Diamond. Actually, I could see that, too.
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, the ponies are sending me subliminal messages.
They are saying we must encourage Howard Lincoln to get rid of Chuck Armstrong and replace him with someone like Terry Ryan or Larry Beinfest so the repairing can begin, then this new president can fire Bavasi and other people that need to be fired.
Man, these ponies are smart.
I like ponies. But then, I don’t have to watch “My little pony, the end of Flutter Valley” 5 times a day.
do we excuse that comment as it came out of the mouth of their pitching coach, who is paid to shine them up?
Dave – not sure I agree with this statement without knowing the alternative plan. Do you have a post on how the team should be built? (Link?)
There are plenty of teams that have relied heavily on the talent on their pitching staffs. The problem is the Mariners are spectacularly incompetent at identifying quality starting pitching, because they are paying Silva, Washburn and Batista 25-30 million to provide marginal improvement on three Cha Seung Baeks. A well-run team who wanted to really have outstanding pitching would be allocating that money considerably differently, to where there was a 3rd pitcher in the King Felix/Bedard class making a huge contract, and then using cheap pitch-to-contact innings eaters at 4-5, or would have converted Morrow to a starter last year, so that by now he might be ready to enter the rotation similar to what Piñeiro did in 2001, or… well, you get the idea.
They’ve compounded that inefficiency with their money by having a terrible defense back up three pitchers whose assets are that, given a solid defense behind them, they can fool you into thinking they are much better than they actually are. I’m convinced that if we actually HAD a world-class defense behind these guys, at least one of them would be having an Aaron Sele/Paul Abbott/Ryan Franklin in 2003 sort of mirage year. Instead, the defensive shortcomings make them look like garbage.
Oops. Must have accidentally deleted the “slash” from the close bquote.
I agree with your analysis of the M’s, but not with your conclusion. Lots of teams have built around their pitching–the 1990’s Braves come to mind–and done just fine. The M’s problem is that they have BAD pitchers. Silva, Washburn and Batista are #4 starters on their good days and #10 starters on their bad ones. Felix is still learning, and Bedard has seriously underperformed (yet another reason to hate that trade). I still think he isn’t healthy, but who knows. It’s the players, not the model, that is the problem.
You’ve got a very schizophrenic attitude towards ERA. Some posts it’s only used by morons who don’t understand pitching, and then now you use it to make a baseball point.
Which is it?