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	<title>Comments on: Reasons For Optimism</title>
	<atom:link href="http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: galaxieboi</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278485</link>
		<dc:creator>galaxieboi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:36:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278485</guid>
		<description>Sorry, that should read &quot;all three are piching better than THEIR ERA...&quot;.  My bad.  Please moderate to my suitable shame.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, that should read &#8220;all three are piching better than THEIR ERA&#8230;&#8221;.  My bad.  Please moderate to my suitable shame.</p>
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		<title>By: galaxieboi</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278484</link>
		<dc:creator>galaxieboi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:35:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278484</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll pitch in some reasons for opimism.  Check out Silva&#039;s, Batista&#039;s and Washburn&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&amp;linesToDisplay=50&amp;orderBy=prc&amp;direction=DESC&amp;qual_filter=1&amp;season_filter%5B%5D=2008&amp;league_filter%5B%5D=1&amp;team_filter%5B%5D=SEA&amp;Submit=Submit&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; FIP and DER &lt;/a&gt;numbers.  All three are pitching &quot;better&quot; than there ERA would indicate but are getting less than stellar help from their teammates behind (and according to Mr. Washburn IN FRONT of) them.  

Now, I&#039;m not saying they don&#039;t suck.  All three are capable back end guys.  But Bedard is not pitching nearly as well as he&#039;s capable of (for whatever reason) so yet again Felix is out on an island by himself.  

Right now the M&#039;s are the worst &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/alwest/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; fielding &lt;/a&gt; team in the AL.  For the pitching to really improve change must come from the men with the not-so-golden gloves.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll pitch in some reasons for opimism.  Check out Silva&#8217;s, Batista&#8217;s and Washburn&#8217;s <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&amp;linesToDisplay=50&amp;orderBy=prc&amp;direction=DESC&amp;qual_filter=1&amp;season_filter%5B%5D=2008&amp;league_filter%5B%5D=1&amp;team_filter%5B%5D=SEA&amp;Submit=Submit" rel="nofollow"> FIP and DER </a>numbers.  All three are pitching &#8220;better&#8221; than there ERA would indicate but are getting less than stellar help from their teammates behind (and according to Mr. Washburn IN FRONT of) them.  </p>
<p>Now, I&#8217;m not saying they don&#8217;t suck.  All three are capable back end guys.  But Bedard is not pitching nearly as well as he&#8217;s capable of (for whatever reason) so yet again Felix is out on an island by himself.  </p>
<p>Right now the M&#8217;s are the worst <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/alwest/" rel="nofollow"> fielding </a> team in the AL.  For the pitching to really improve change must come from the men with the not-so-golden gloves.</p>
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		<title>By: Pete Livengood</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278190</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete Livengood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 16:52:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278190</guid>
		<description>coasty 141 wrote:

&lt;em&gt;&quot;...curious to your thoughts on what the M’s should do with RF for the rest of the year. Is it stupid platoon Wlad and Reed for the rest of the season? Could Wlad benefit from going back to Tacoma? Is Reed worth putting out there every day?&quot; &lt;/em&gt;

I didn&#039;t see Dave (or anyone else) answer this, so I&#039;ll take a stab.

I think you can make a case for more time for Reed.  I&#039;m just not sure it should come a Wlad&#039;s expense.  As long as DH is the offensive black hole it is - and I see no reason to expect that to change - then the more logical move is to play Reed in LEFT and let Wlad continue to play everyday until he proves he can&#039;t.  SSS aside, the numbers right now for Wlad against RHP don&#039;t look good (.197/.250/.380 in 71 AB) but it is far too small a sample to judge him just yet.  

I do favor giving Reed some more extended time now that he seems healthy (something I don&#039;t think he was for the vast majority of his time in the Bigs before now) and see what he can do, as he&#039;s entering what should be his prime.  He may prove he is nothing more than a fringey 4th/5th OF, but what is the harm in finding out in this season that is going nowhere on a fast train?  We all already believe Raul has no business playing LF anyway, and even the Mariners FO has to believe that his future is probably at DH.  He turned 36 yesterday, ferchrissakes.  

So what&#039;s wrong with seeing what BOTH of Reed and Balentien can do, all while preventing Vidro&#039;s opition from vesting &lt;em&gt;and&lt;/em&gt; improvomg the DH spot at the same time?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>coasty 141 wrote:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;&#8230;curious to your thoughts on what the M’s should do with RF for the rest of the year. Is it stupid platoon Wlad and Reed for the rest of the season? Could Wlad benefit from going back to Tacoma? Is Reed worth putting out there every day?&#8221; </em></p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t see Dave (or anyone else) answer this, so I&#8217;ll take a stab.</p>
<p>I think you can make a case for more time for Reed.  I&#8217;m just not sure it should come a Wlad&#8217;s expense.  As long as DH is the offensive black hole it is &#8211; and I see no reason to expect that to change &#8211; then the more logical move is to play Reed in LEFT and let Wlad continue to play everyday until he proves he can&#8217;t.  SSS aside, the numbers right now for Wlad against RHP don&#8217;t look good (.197/.250/.380 in 71 AB) but it is far too small a sample to judge him just yet.  </p>
<p>I do favor giving Reed some more extended time now that he seems healthy (something I don&#8217;t think he was for the vast majority of his time in the Bigs before now) and see what he can do, as he&#8217;s entering what should be his prime.  He may prove he is nothing more than a fringey 4th/5th OF, but what is the harm in finding out in this season that is going nowhere on a fast train?  We all already believe Raul has no business playing LF anyway, and even the Mariners FO has to believe that his future is probably at DH.  He turned 36 yesterday, ferchrissakes.  </p>
<p>So what&#8217;s wrong with seeing what BOTH of Reed and Balentien can do, all while preventing Vidro&#8217;s opition from vesting <em>and</em> improvomg the DH spot at the same time?</p>
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		<title>By: pgreyy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278186</link>
		<dc:creator>pgreyy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 16:40:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278186</guid>
		<description>Count me in the camp that isn&#039;t absolutely convinced that our best move would be to turn Brandon Morrow into a starter.  (I&#039;m watching the Yankees experiment with Joba closely...as I&#039;m not certain that I&#039;d have made THAT move, either.)

When we had Putz &amp; GS52, then having Morrow in the bullpen was a luxury at best and a huge missed opportunity in any event.

With GS52 gone and Putz not living up to his recently acquired reputation...is it worth revisiting to consider where Morrow would best help this club?  

I&#039;ve never seen Morrow as having the body-type of a work horse.  I believe that I&#039;m remembering correctly that he came to the M&#039;s having already had an injury in college.  In recent outings, he certainly seems strong when given the task of getting up to three outs...and less solid when sent out for inning number two.

(And I grant you all of the following:  Lincecum doesn&#039;t have the body-type of a work horse, either and he&#039;s excelling as a starter.  I can&#039;t imagine that there are ANY pitchers who haven&#039;t had some injury issues...and that doesn&#039;t mean they&#039;re incapable of being effective starting pitchers.  And not only is &quot;recent outings&quot; a classic &quot;small sample size&quot; error, but it also fails to acknowledge how poorly the M&#039;s build and use their young pitching talent...as in &quot;This new chef seems to make french fries very well, because we&#039;ve kept him on the french fry machine since we hired him.  I don&#039;t know how well he&#039;d do making a whole meal...&quot;  I grant you all that.  Thus, I can&#039;t say that I know that Morrow should be kept in the bullpen any more than I can say that I know that Morrow should be developed into a starter.)

My question is:  does the statistically-enlightened fan KNOW, as a dead-lock certainty, that &quot;Morrow should be a starter&quot; or is there an argument to be made for the benefits of some metal band covering &quot;The Sun Will Come Out To-MORROW&quot; so that can be played in the top of the 9th inning when our new lights-out closer comes in? 

Like Fox Mulder, I want to believe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Count me in the camp that isn&#8217;t absolutely convinced that our best move would be to turn Brandon Morrow into a starter.  (I&#8217;m watching the Yankees experiment with Joba closely&#8230;as I&#8217;m not certain that I&#8217;d have made THAT move, either.)</p>
<p>When we had Putz &amp; GS52, then having Morrow in the bullpen was a luxury at best and a huge missed opportunity in any event.</p>
<p>With GS52 gone and Putz not living up to his recently acquired reputation&#8230;is it worth revisiting to consider where Morrow would best help this club?  </p>
<p>I&#8217;ve never seen Morrow as having the body-type of a work horse.  I believe that I&#8217;m remembering correctly that he came to the M&#8217;s having already had an injury in college.  In recent outings, he certainly seems strong when given the task of getting up to three outs&#8230;and less solid when sent out for inning number two.</p>
<p>(And I grant you all of the following:  Lincecum doesn&#8217;t have the body-type of a work horse, either and he&#8217;s excelling as a starter.  I can&#8217;t imagine that there are ANY pitchers who haven&#8217;t had some injury issues&#8230;and that doesn&#8217;t mean they&#8217;re incapable of being effective starting pitchers.  And not only is &#8220;recent outings&#8221; a classic &#8220;small sample size&#8221; error, but it also fails to acknowledge how poorly the M&#8217;s build and use their young pitching talent&#8230;as in &#8220;This new chef seems to make french fries very well, because we&#8217;ve kept him on the french fry machine since we hired him.  I don&#8217;t know how well he&#8217;d do making a whole meal&#8230;&#8221;  I grant you all that.  Thus, I can&#8217;t say that I know that Morrow should be kept in the bullpen any more than I can say that I know that Morrow should be developed into a starter.)</p>
<p>My question is:  does the statistically-enlightened fan KNOW, as a dead-lock certainty, that &#8220;Morrow should be a starter&#8221; or is there an argument to be made for the benefits of some metal band covering &#8220;The Sun Will Come Out To-MORROW&#8221; so that can be played in the top of the 9th inning when our new lights-out closer comes in? </p>
<p>Like Fox Mulder, I want to believe.</p>
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		<title>By: _David_</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278148</link>
		<dc:creator>_David_</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 06:32:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278148</guid>
		<description>Brandon Morrow is great, but... isn&#039;t his success in the bullpen making it less likely he&#039;ll ever start, or have we given up on that already?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brandon Morrow is great, but&#8230; isn&#8217;t his success in the bullpen making it less likely he&#8217;ll ever start, or have we given up on that already?</p>
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		<title>By: jspokane</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278116</link>
		<dc:creator>jspokane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 04:02:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278116</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d hate to see them start winning too, especially if they wait until July (or later) to do so.  That would give management cover they don&#039;t deserve.

However, there are guys it would be nice to keep - Beltre and Bedard, to name two - who&#039;d probably be more inclined to stay if the team could get somewhere near .500 and have some hope for the future.

About Bedard though, I don&#039;t think I&#039;ve ever seen a baseball player who appears to enjoy the game less than he does.  Was he this way in Baltimore too?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d hate to see them start winning too, especially if they wait until July (or later) to do so.  That would give management cover they don&#8217;t deserve.</p>
<p>However, there are guys it would be nice to keep &#8211; Beltre and Bedard, to name two &#8211; who&#8217;d probably be more inclined to stay if the team could get somewhere near .500 and have some hope for the future.</p>
<p>About Bedard though, I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;ve ever seen a baseball player who appears to enjoy the game less than he does.  Was he this way in Baltimore too?</p>
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		<title>By: DAMellen</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278038</link>
		<dc:creator>DAMellen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 02:07:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278038</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d rather them finish last.  Lookout Landing sold me on Steve Strasburg.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d rather them finish last.  Lookout Landing sold me on Steve Strasburg.</p>
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		<title>By: davepaisley</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-278031</link>
		<dc:creator>davepaisley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 01:58:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-278031</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;@20 Got my JJ Putz Flamethrower Express train car. Put it on the track and was puzzled… I thought it would be faster… not as fast as last year’s car…&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Yeah, derails much easier, too.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>@20 Got my JJ Putz Flamethrower Express train car. Put it on the track and was puzzled… I thought it would be faster… not as fast as last year’s car…</p></blockquote>
<p>Yeah, derails much easier, too.</p>
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		<title>By: scraps</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-277996</link>
		<dc:creator>scraps</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:53:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-277996</guid>
		<description>The depressing thing is that I&#039;d like to come up with clearly worse organizations than the Mariners, I can&#039;t. The only combination of rich and inept I can think of that rivals the Mariners is the Clippers.

Oh, wait: the Knicks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The depressing thing is that I&#8217;d like to come up with clearly worse organizations than the Mariners, I can&#8217;t. The only combination of rich and inept I can think of that rivals the Mariners is the Clippers.</p>
<p>Oh, wait: the Knicks.</p>
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		<title>By: jlc</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/06/02/5270/comment-page-1/#comment-277995</link>
		<dc:creator>jlc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:47:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=5270#comment-277995</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I can’t root for losing. Every time I try, as soon as the team gets a hit I start pulling for them. I can’t help it.

Anyway, I don’t believe a 100-loss season will lead to “radical changes”. That’s only going to happen when the team is sold. So I might as well just hope for one miraculous season sometime.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I&#039;m in the same boat about rooting for a loss. I just can&#039;t get root against Felix or Ichiro! or AB or Kenji, etc. Though I can root against specific players who need not be named because of their obviousness.

I also agree with most of the second paragraph. Whether they end up at .300, .500, or .650, I can&#039;t see any reason to think the management won&#039;t just right off the bad times as bad luck.

However, I don&#039;t want a miracle season, because anything short of that and I think Bavasi and Mac are gone. I just don&#039;t think they&#039;ll be replaced with anything significantly better.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I can’t root for losing. Every time I try, as soon as the team gets a hit I start pulling for them. I can’t help it.</p>
<p>Anyway, I don’t believe a 100-loss season will lead to “radical changes”. That’s only going to happen when the team is sold. So I might as well just hope for one miraculous season sometime.
</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m in the same boat about rooting for a loss. I just can&#8217;t get root against Felix or Ichiro! or AB or Kenji, etc. Though I can root against specific players who need not be named because of their obviousness.</p>
<p>I also agree with most of the second paragraph. Whether they end up at .300, .500, or .650, I can&#8217;t see any reason to think the management won&#8217;t just right off the bad times as bad luck.</p>
<p>However, I don&#8217;t want a miracle season, because anything short of that and I think Bavasi and Mac are gone. I just don&#8217;t think they&#8217;ll be replaced with anything significantly better.</p>
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