Draft Stuff
The major league draft is just two days away, and so while I don’t have the same amount of sources in the organization that I used to, here’s some rumblings I’ve heard in the last couple of days about what the Mariners might do with the 20th pick in the first round.
Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS, Long Beach CA
Adam Jones, part two. Like Jones, Hicks has major league potential both as an OF and as a pitcher, but if the M’s draft him, it’s likely as a position player. He’s a classic five tool projectable 18-year-old with serious athleticism, and he’s probably not going to fall to #20, as a team with a pick in the #11 to #19 range will probably take a shot at his upside before the M’s get a chance to pick. But if he falls to their spot, there’s a good chance the M’s will be calling Hicks’ name.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Brookwood HS, Langley BC
The M’s scout Canada as well as anyone, and Lawrie is the offensive version of last year’s first round pick, Phillippe Aumont. Teams have primarily had to get a look at him in exhibition tours, and he opened a lot of eyes (including several M’s officials) down in the Dominican recently with his power display. He doesn’t really have a position, having played 2nd base, 3rd base, catcher, and the outfield at various times, and no one really knows where he’ll end up long term. Best guess is third base or left field, but either way, it’s the bat that teams would be drafting. There aren’t many better high school hitters in this draft.
Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury HS, Salisbury CT
If you love athletes, Hewitt is your guy in this draft. He’s built, he can run, and he can really turn on a fastball when he gets his bat on it. In terms of pure tools, he’s in the Hanley Ramirez/Alfonso Soriano category of players. If he develops, he could be a 30-30 shortstop. But, in terms of development, he’s a couple of years behind a normal first round pick, and he’s a long, long way from the major leagues. The gap between what he could be and what he is is Grand Canyon sized, and no one is sure he’s going to be able to hit professional pitching consistently. A ton of bust potential, but he might be a winning lottery ticket as well. Big risk, big reward.
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University
Last year, the M’s were focusing on selecting Casey Weathers, a power reliever from Vanderbilt, before Colorado popped him at #8 and Aumont fell to the M’s at #11. They still would like to add another power arm to the bullpen, and could use Cashner as the piece that would allow them to move Brandon Morrow back to the rotation. I’m still against the idea of using a first round pick on a relief pitcher, but the M’s aren’t, and Cashner’s definitely a possibility.
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MLB.com’s Mayo predicts Shooter Hunt, RHP – Tulane
All along, the feeling was the Mariners would look for the best college pitcher with a live arm. It could be Perry or Cashner if they were here, but they’re not in this projection. If they want to go with a safer college arm, Ole Miss right-hander Lance Lynn could be discussed. Or they could go for a closer with someone like Fields. As of this writing, though, we’ll say the Tulane ace’s slide will stop here.
If I read the draft order correctly, the M’s have their regular pick in the second round, which will be 66th overall, and 98th overall in the third round.
The M’s don’t have any picks in the supplemental rounds, and I don’t see any gains or losses due to free agent signings.
That’s the first time in a long while that’s happened, near as I can recall.
Looking for a ML-ready arm, you say? Who knew we needed another set-up man already…
I’ve been waiting for this, THANKS DAVE!!!!!
Using a 1st round pick on a reliever is akin to an NFL team using a 1st round pick on a kicker or punter. The position just isn’t important enough to burn a pick that high.
Which means the Mariners will absolutely get the least bang for their buck they possibly can. I think that is actually the club strategy at this point.
Langley, eh?
Ever wonder why all Canadian baseball players are from either British Columbia or Quebec? I can think of two Canadian players in recent years who’ve come from any other part of Canada (Corey Koskie and Matt Stairs) – otherwise they’re all from BC or Quebec. I wonder why.
I just hope the M’s take who the scouts think is the best talent available. Lets hope Bavasi doesn’t make the selection based on need.
John Sickels’ list includes:
20) Mariners: Anthony Hewitt, INF, Connecticut HS: Mariners can’t resist his tools.
21) Tigers: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Tigers feel they receive a steal here.
22) Mets: Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Mets opt for another safe, affordable pick to pair with Castro.
Hicks and Lawrie go early in his prediction.
Erik Bedard is from Navan, Ontario.
I would say the BC thing can be explained by weather – easier to hit etc. there all winter long. But that does not cut it as an explanation because Quebec is no winter paradise.
So, perhaps it is the BC Premier League which provides top quality coaching and opposition – Loewen, Morneau and Francis all played in the BC Premier League. Quebec might have something similar.
Bavasi doesn’t make draft picks. I will send a swarm of bees at the next person who insinuates he might screw up the draft somehow.
6 – Erik Bedard?
[interestingly, on USSM, Adam Jones fanboys shut your yap]
If you’re willing to wait several years for that to happen, you’re more patient than you seem.
Dave, are there any modern-style organizations that would consider drafting a reliever in the first round?
That just sounds so, so wrong…
“Bavasi doesn’t make draft picks”
-The GM of every organization has some involvement in the draft process, correct?
-I’m sure scouts within the organization favor different players and decisions have to be made for who is the best talent, right?
Who has the final say for the Mariners?
BEES.
Bob Fontaine runs the draft.
Have any organizations tried the ‘draft a bunch of high upside toolsy guys and wait for the few that pan out to turn into Hanley Ramirez, who is possibly the most valuable player in baseball right now (due to cost vs. talent scarcity at his position)’? I keep seeing teams take ’safe’ picks and it seems like, outside of the Manny Ramirezes and Frank Thomases, those rarely turn into the kind of serious +wins value that a team gets from having a Hanley or a Ryan Braun or what have you.
17 – HanRam was traded to Florida from Boston for Beckett and Lowell.
I had the impression the Ms had this general philosophy. It’s that they’re not good at it…
Or, to put it another way, it seems like, outside the first round, there just aren’t a lot of safe picks left, so why not just draft the crazy young toolsy guys? You’ll get a million busts, but the one guy that pans out will be worth five of the college level mediocrities you could have had?
I love the draft. I just can’t wait for the day when picks are tradeable and everyone drafts based on talent and not signability. I also hope ESPN2 keeps Chris Berman a million miles away from any MLB Draft coverage. I have simple needs.
Didn’t the A’s draft Huston Street in the first round? Are they considered a ‘modern-style organization? Probably not. Way too forward thinking to be modern-style.
bratman: What’s your point?
17 – just to point out that Boston never waited for him to pan out …
Street was in the supplemental round. If you want a true first-rounder, Craig Hansen to the Red Sox would presumably qualify.
FWIW (probably not much), the Twins recently had Brett Lawrie work out for them before a game:
Hanley has an atrocious, atrocious glove and there’s very little doubt that Josh Hamilton is more valuable than Hanley Ramirez.
I’ve heard that Hanley’s defensive is better this year, but I can certainly see your point. Josh Hamilton is pretty amazing, too.
I didn’t know the M’s considered using Morrow as a reliever when they drafted him. This is a quote from the PI the day after the draft.
“We had a number of pitchers we thought were worthy of being the fifth pick in the country, but this kid we thought was a good fit for us,” Fontaine said. “We think he’s got a chance to be a real, real good pitcher, and he gives us the versatility to start and relieve.”
And Craig Hanson to Boston is still a work in progress. Certainly not the short time-scale relief ace, in the Huston Street mould, that the Sox were hoping for. Draft, trade, or free agency, there’s no guarantees in the bullpen.
The college reliever-in-the-first-round strategy certainly hasn’t turned out so well.
Craig Hansen, David Aardsma, Joey Devine and Ryan Wagner never returned a lot of value for the clubs that drafted them.
What do you think of Shooter Hunt, Dave?
If they wanted a college bat/corner guy, who would they take if the Canuck’s off the board? Does Alonso fall that far, or do they look at Ike Davis?
I don’t trust the M’s to do anything right, not with who they’ve got running things
I like going for the Canuck’s … bring on the second coming of Justin Morneau … boy can that guy swing the bat.
tomas, why do you taunt the bees? It makes ponies cry.
bob fonatine has done a pretty remarkable job with the farm … he’s scouted some good talent.
regardless of the L word vs Morrow.
Let’s try to keep this somewhat on track with draft discussion please, guys.
Bavasi sucking isn’t the point of this post.
Dave, of the guys you listed, who do you like best? Is it the same player that the M’s like best?
nice to see (amongst all the Jakes and Bretts and Joshs) a Yonder and a Shooter.
I’m not tempting bees here. From my limited knowledge it sure seems like drafting is about the only thing that the M’s do well. It would make sense that it isn’t Bavasi who runs that particular show.
Everything else is still atrocious however. Jeers to the front office. Cheers to delicious Tang.
I think you just have to take the guy with the coolest name, really.
Shooter Hunt! Come on down!
Does anyone have any thoughts on either of the two ASU studs? Wallace or Davis? Wallace is supposedly the better prospect (but a right handed hitter) yet Davis is the better athlete.
interesting note in a Houston Chronicle article:
Beane doesn’t take high school pitchers in Round 1 or maybe ever. It’s actually something I remember from reading Moneyball.
The problem is not that they took Morrow as a reliever or starter, it is that he is a reliever. Can you imagine? “Now pitching for the Mariners in the 8th inning, Tim Lincecum.”
Lincecum and Morrow is not a decent comparison. Lincecum was an established starter, Morrow had only been a starter for a portion of one year. My only point was that the Mariners (when they drafted Morrow) were already thinking about not developing him as a starter.
Absolutely, when you get a chance to draft a Shooter, Skeeter, Spike, or a white guy named Khalil, you do it…..no questions asked.
If you can grab a Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp or Rocco Baldelli in the 2nd round you’ve had a great draft.
No matter who we select in the first round, it seems where the M’s organization fails is in the player development arena. With a dearth of players ready to move up to the big league level, one would think that organizational improvement in developing players would be a high priority.
At least getting to an environment where our draft picks are going to succeed because of the organization, not in spite of it.
I’d be happy with Ike Davis, 41, and he’ll be on the board at 20. My guess is that they don’t take him.
43 – Moneyball is just a snapshot in time. The A’s have taken a ton of HS pitchers recently, from Trevor Cahill (their first pick, but not a first rounder, in 2006) to Jared Lansford to Thomas Italiano. They saw that the pendulum had swung, and HS pitchers were becoming undervalued. There was a great series at BP showing the rate of return for HS pitchers and the gap between HS/College pitchers narrowed considerably during the mid-90s-present. It’s basically a toss-up now.
46.) It has been estimated that drafting a high school player is at the minimum a 2 million dollar commitment. Player development is a huge deal and every organization knows its. Its not like there’s is a blueprint for how to handle every situation that arises in developing a player.
45 – like they do for MLB talent, the M’s are heavily dependent upon their latin american signings for truly great names. The draft has its successes (Coco Crisp, Shooter Hunt, Rowdy Hardy), but the M’s have gotten great value from the likes of Jetsy Extrano, McyQuin Lora, Yorman Bazardo, etc., all by bypassing the draft. They can afford to take an ‘Adam Jones’ in the draft if they’ve got a lot of high-risk, high-comedy names in the VSL/DSL.
47
Yeah I like Ike. If he develops some power he could be special. From what I hear he’s a little devalued due to durability concerns but has the look of a natural when inside the batters box.
“Shooter Hunt”? Really?
Dave, could you note which of the positional guys bat LH?
What would the Mariners’ position be be on a guy like Brandon Crawford (not in round 1)? Is he someone who most likely will return for his senior year, or is he a good high risk, high reward candidate?
Here are Frank Mattox’s suggestions for whom the M’s should target on Thursday:
1. College southpaw with good command of 87-MPH fastball and “show me” secondary pitches.
2. Undersized high school catcher with major league attitude, slow feet, and extreme contempt for the strike zone.
3. Toolsy but raw high school shortstop who only started playing baseball his senior year and who needs to be bought out of his scholarship to play quarterback at Oklahoma.
47 – he seems to have plenty of power already. I’m not sure about the park effects there (though they can’t be THAT extreme given Josh Satow’s HR allowed), but he’s slugging well over .700. He’s hit for much more power than, say, Cole Gillaspie, who’s much more in the gap-power, Matt Mangini mold to me.
David Cooper at Cal is another good college 1b with some pop. Both will be on the board, but I just don’t see the M’s going in this direction.
His slugging % is impressive but from what I’ve read Ike is still projected as a gap power guy. But I think he’s got a fairly high ceiling- some teams are even targeting him as a corner OF.
#5: Quote: Using a 1st round pick on a reliever is akin to an NFL team using a 1st round pick on a kicker or punter. The position just isn’t important enough to burn a pick that high.
–end quote
Didn’t the Seahawks pick a snapper with a pretty high pick?
I say you get what you can given the dearth of pitching.
mark w – I believe you mean Conor Gillaspie!
You can find some more ideas about who the Mariners might pick at PI.
Last year the M’s took the best player available. They should just keep up that trend.
I trust Bob Fontaine. Even when he’s handcuffed by his superiors he still makes a quality choice.
48 – I don’t know about the no-blueprint thing. I’m uneducated in this area, but the A’s consistently do a good job of developing their talent, while we seem to be consistently doing the opposite.
I’m just saying that we need a better way of getting better value out of the guys that are drafted. With *so* many players leaving this organization to become contributors elsewhere (when they weren’t contributors here), it seems we have a process issue that we need to improve.
in Fontaine I trust … even though I’m still extremely IRKED by the L word maneuver …
but every time Morrow takes the mound I realize they are both extremely talented.
You mean who they believed to be the best player available. Probably no use analyzing it for another few years when the draft class is a little more established, but I’d be interested to hear how anyone could justify at this point that Morrow>Lincecum. I don’t even know that they could have justified it at the time, except for concerns about Lincecum’s size and potential durability issues, but at least he had a full repertoire of pitches and was ready to be a starter right away. I know it’s partly Puget Sound and UW homerism, but I’ll probably never get over it unless Lincecum’s arm explodes like Sammy Sosa’s bat.
I still want Ryan Braun…
Bob Fontaine runs the draft.
Well, yes, technically this is true. But then again, if he were fully in charge do you really think he would’ve chosen Brandon Morrow over Andrew Miller?
I think that’s relevant to this current discussion on who the M’s might select this year (vs. who they should). If he were really 100% in charge of the draft, he’d grab the BPA regardless of slot issues, etc., I would hope. But I really wonder if he does have full authority to run the draft.
We’ll find out on Thursday, though, who really runs the draft, I suppose. Does Fontaine buy into the M’s philosophy about drafting RPs in the first round, or is he merely going along with marching orders from above?
That is actually a very important question, IMHO…
59- For that to happen the Ms would have to break slot and draft Gerrit Cole who is easily a top ten talent.
Dave’s been pretty clear on Fontaine being given a free hand in the draft, in the past (which is reinforced by his bees comment/threat from earlier).
Until I have better reason to doubt his word, I’m not going to.
Now, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets told something like “we’re not going to be able to go over slot to sign Andrew Miller, pick someone else” but that’s likely the exception, not the rule, and I doubt he’s given any more specific marching orders than that.
Surprisingly, with the draft coming up I am getting excited as a Mariners fan again. Talking about this certainly beats the hell out of talking about the 08 team.
At least we might have a few days of draft talk to ease the pain of an absurdly disappointing season.
At least we aren’t the Rockies, right?
60.) Yeah, you are right. Young talent means a lot more to the A’s than it does to the Mariners.
[bees]
There are two things here…finding players with the talent. And then developing that talent. Not convinced that the Ms are very good on developing that talent and making it ready for the major leagues. I AM convinced that it’s an ongoing problem of a couple decades…
Well, actually I think the bees thing is towards blaming Bavasi for a bad draft. I agree with that — if there’s any meddling in the draft, it’s higher up, NOT Bavasi. Otherwise, yeah, I agree — Bavasi gives full authority to Fontaine w/r/t the draft. We can’t blame/praise Bavasi for the draft (other than to give him credit for hiring Fontaine in the first place — who is excellent at his job, and I’m willing to give Bavasi all the credit for that).
I just wouldn’t be surprised at all if Fontaine has already been given the marching orders to draft the most ML-ready pitcher he can find, so the M’s can throw him into the ‘pen ASAP. If that’s indeed the case, then it’s Fontaine’s job to find this guy and draft him. I trust that he’d be able to do that — but that’s like giving Bob Ross an art kit with only a small paint-by-numbers brush and a tube of raw umber and burnt sienna (instead of the full ensemble of specialty paints and brushes and palette knives he’s used to). Sure, he could probably still paint a lovely picture, but nothing like what he does with his hands untied (or his crack pipe lit)…
If you don’t want to believe Dave when he says that Bavasi (or whoever) doesn’t meddle in the draft, that’s up to you.
But there’s no value in us spending this entire comment thread debating it.
Can we talk about interesting possible draft picks, what the Mariners should be targeting player type wise, and other less rehashed topics instead?
Pretty please, with sugar on top?
Bzzzzzz. Is that bees I hear behind me? Dang. I’m allergic…
I just want to know who the best near-MLB-ready power-RP might be. I’ve my reasons for believing this is the direction the M’s likely will be headed. I’ll dedicate no more pixels/bandwidth to whatever debate I’ve contributed to, really, but I did want to caveat emptor that with the point that I’m not convinced that’s what Fontaine really wants to do. At least I hope not…
I thought there was some good draft discussion going on in this thread but this comment kind of opened the door for bee land.
“Until I have better reason to doubt his word, I’m not going to.”
And I can rest easy — Churchill reports that the M’s aren’t necessarily targeting RPs (although they seem to have ruled out 1B-man, too, which is a bit of an interesting insight into the discussion of who the M’s might draft).
well, just remember…at this position, it’s not unlikely they’ll draft someone who’ll turn into a relief pitcher–if all their hot players are already gone at #20, I can see them taking a chance on someone, and that chance turns into another relief arm.
[direct complaints about mods to the admins -- signed, the admins]
I didn’t know Bedard was Ontarian. You don’t find a lot of unilingual francophones in Ontario.
And now that I count everyone, BC really does dominate the Canadian roster, and the vast majority of BC players come from coastal areas where winter basically doesn’t happen (by Canadian standards).
I don’t care how good of a player he is, I say they need to draft Shooter Hunt based on his name alone.
Wow.
I think I’m just going to pretend not to see that comment.
Also:
I’m inclined to agree.
sycophant.
“The francophone population is concentrated primarily in Eastern Ontario (41.3 per cent — 226,705 francophones), in Ottawa, Cornwall and many rural farming communities.”
It was a 6th rounder (189th overall pick). I am not saying never ever draft a reliever, just not in the first round. The Seahawks are overall in pretty good shape and drafted a specific need; the Mariners need help pretty much everywhere and would be better served finding position players that can help the team rather than relievers. I could live with a starter too, as long as he doesn’t end up in the goddamned bullpen.
Well, the thing with the MLB draft, too, is that the guys are usually going to be at least a couple years away from cracking the Major League roster, even the guys at the top of the draft.
It’s not like the NFL draft where your first round pick is pretty much going to be a starter at their position the following year, or at least in heavy rotation at their position.
So drafting for short-term need is stupid in MLB, since your needs when that player hits the big leagues could be completely different than they were when they were drafted.
Overall depth at the position in the organization can be a concern, but you’re almost always going to be better off just going for the best available player.
Dave,
Anyone you like in particular? Are there any good bets to fall out of the top 20 picks because of signability or other issues?
82- Yeah, plus the NFL draft is 95% team needs anyway, so it’s not a good comparison. The NBA draft is more analogous to the MLB one, and FAR more teams get burned when they draft for need than when they take the best player.
The real problem with drafting a reliever, though, is that the bullpen is the easiest part of a roster to construct both well and cheaply.
I don’t think teams should hold to any hard and fast rules on the draft.
If all the studs are gone then a relief pitcher can make sense if they are ready for the big leagues now or in short order. One example was Cordero by the Expos(Nationals)*. He basically stepped right into the majors after being drafted.
The equation is something like [Talent Potential]/[Time to Develop]/[Risk]
(And yes I know Risk and Time to Develop are related.)
I didn’t know Bedard was Ontarian. You don’t find a lot of unilingual francophones in Ontario.
Not as much anymore, but Navan is basically across the river from Gatineau; between Navan and the river (still in Ontario) is Orléans (and meanwhile over on the Quebec side is Buckingham, go figure). That whole part of the Ottawa valley is littered with French (and former French) villages. And buttheaded Scots like my late grandmother.
So drafting for short-term need is stupid in MLB, since your needs when that player hits the big leagues could be completely different than they were when they were drafted.
Overall depth at the position in the organization can be a concern, but you’re almost always going to be better off just going for the best available player.
Yeah, and you have to look no further than Jeff Clement for a good example of that — in a draft that still had Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, and Troy Tulowitzki available (oh yeah, and Jacoby Ellsbury), the M’s went for Clement at least in part because they didn’t have any good catchers in the system and every attempt at trading for one had been a disaster. Of course, that didn’t fill the immediate need so in the meantime they went out and signed Johjima… twice.
And now that I count everyone, BC really does dominate the Canadian roster, and the vast majority of BC players come from coastal areas where winter basically doesn’t happen (by Canadian standards).
It’s the weed.
I think it’s possible to be a mod without being such a sycophant…
You’d think it would be possible to be a commenter without being an absolute ass, too, but people here prove that wrong every day.
86.) “I don’t think teams should hold to any hard and fast rules on the draft.”
Fontaine has said pretty much the same thing. I’m paraphrasing but he says he’s not a fan of any rule that disqualifies any player with MLB talent (I believe someone was asking him about drafting moneyball players.
I doubt many of you will know the guy, but he’ll be available late and I hope the M’s pick him is Nick Shekryk. I remember watching him play baseball in high school against us, and he’s going pro. He’s a huge (6′6”, 325 lbs) left handed first baseman with an insane amount of power. I heard that he’s been working out at a baseball clinic and that the Phillies are interested late. Hopefully the M’s snap him up.
(Sorry for the slight homerism of this, but the dude is a freak, and no one else knows about him)
Nick Shekryk
The name makes him a front-runner by itself. And 6′6″, 325 lbs? Is he green? Are you sure he doesn’t spell it “Shrek”? (Think of the cross-marketing opportunities!)
I just hope we take a hitter with power. That’s what we really need.
I hate drafting on athleticism. Those guys go bust way too often.
Dave-
For the three hitters of the four — are the right or left-handed?
Hicks is a switch-hitter, Lawrie and Hewitt both hit from the right side.
Thanks Conor
So apparently Bob Fontaine will be on the radio pre-game show tomorrow (Weds).
Please, give us a big bat. We need someone who can hit.
Please.
Hm. Tell me again why this team doesn’t assemble a team suited for its ball park?
Regarding Cashner, we should keep in mind Keith Law’s definition of “idiot” in the baseball draft context:
Found in comments to 6/3 entry of Rany on the Royals blog.
I know this is pretty much a impossibility but I would really like Alonso to fall to us. He won’t but if he does and we don’t draft him, I might cry. Cooper is also a excellent choice getting lost among the other !B picks of Smoak, Homser and Alonso. I would not be upset if we drafted Cooper either.