Think it through. If we had a real owner, do you think Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong would have their jobs after this season and do you think Bill Bavasi would have his job right now? Of course not.

A real owner would fire people for all the years of losing to call for accountability.

But guess what ladies and gentlemen, it ‘aint happenin’.

Because like I said, this team is owned by an absentee corporation from Japan and a 80 year old from Japan who has never even bothered to fly out to Seattle to see a Mariners game and probably couldn’t tell the difference between a baseball and a kumquat and only owns this team so that his net worth will increase.

It all makes me frickin’ sick.

Just watch, McLaren will eventually be the sacrificial lamb but Bavasi, Armstrong, Lincoln will all be back. Just watch.

.02

I don’t understand why people keep bringing up a season from 13 years ago. If it was four years ago, okay. But how can ‘95 even be relevant? 13 years is a long time, with much turnover in upper management (and, of course, total turnover in players.)

I didn’t live in Seattle in ‘95 and didn’t follow the team then, so maybe it’s a “you had to be there!” feeling for longtime fans?

When I move here in 2001 (good year to start following the M’s, I know , I couldn’t believe how often people referenced ‘95, and more specifically, “The Double”, also known as “The Double That Saved Baseball in Seattle.” I’m 100% pro-feelgood stories and happy endings, but it was weird how much that came up, several years down the line…

Huh.

What I meant by my comment was this. I never thought 95 would be that one season we would look back on with fondness. We had Jr., A-ROD, Bone, Edgar, RJ, etc. We were getting a new stadium so there would be $$$ to go with all of that talent. I really believed this organization was on the brink of becoming an elite franchise.

I am not longing for those days, I am wondering how on earth we took that kind of momentum and talent, added some cash, and in 13 years turned it into the Baltimore Orioles under Angelos.

I know they won’t fire anyone before the draft, but how soon after it could they finally do it? Does firing the manager or GM normally happen just before they leave on a road trip, when they get back from a homestand, or mid-road trip?

I’m speaking entirely from intuition, and not from experience…

When to fire the manger – This can happen pretty much at any time, but it would be the height of organizational indignity to fire a manager while on the a road trip. If a firing doesn’t happen before the plane boards for Boston, then don’t expect such a move prior to the M’s returning home.

When to fire the GM – This is much more complex. First of all, a decision has to be made regarding whether to retool (failure due to players’ underperformance) or rebuild (organizational failure). Since the M’s basically endorsed Bavasi’s vision at the end of last season, it would be very difficult to recant that wisdom (i.e. move to rebuild) so soon thereafter. In either case, a midseason GM firing is highly unlikely, but possible (see below). It’s easier to fire the manager and one/more of the coaches midseason, effectively laying the failure at their feet. This is the most likely scenario.

If the decision is to retool, then the GM might be fired midseason if there is a belief that the season could be rescued with a few shrewd player personnel decisions. In this case, the GM is fired so as to eliminate the risk that the effect of decisions hereinafter will mirror decisions heretofore.

If the decision is to rebuild, then the GM might be fired midseason if (i) it is cost effective to do so, and (ii) there is an inside track or head-start path to desirable GM candidates. GMs usually have buyout provisions in their contract, so the likelihood of firing is greater when the GM has at least one more season left beyond the current season. Moreover, if the GM were fired midseason, you can best believe that upper mgmt has their eye on a few candidates and got some tamper-proof skinny to work with.

Based on what I see so far, my educated guess is that the death watch is on for MacLauren and staff, and that Bavasi will be shown the door at season’s end.