The 2008 Draft
The 2008 draft kicks off in just under two hours, with the M’s having the 20th selection in the first round. Despite the fact that it isn’t as glitzy as its NFL and NBA counterparts, the draft is still an important day for every franchise. Teams that draft well can stock their organization with a pipeline of cheap, young talent that can be the foundation of championship runs.
I know we all are very frustrated with the Mariners front office and the job they’ve done assembling the major league roster. But, do not let that frustration seep into your idea of the quality of this organization’s scouting department. Led by scouting director Bob Fontaine, the Mariners do an excellent job of finding guys that other teams miss on, and Fontaine is legendary for grabbing valuable players in the middle rounds of the draft when most teams aren’t expecting to get any real value. Fontaine knows what he’s doing, and really, our reaction after this draft should probably just be “we trust Bob.”
However, with that said, there are a couple of player types that I think history has shown that it generally doesn’t make a lot of sense to spend a first round selection on; relief pitchers and ultra-raw two sport athletes. As we’ve talked about before, it’s just really easy to build a bullpen with spare parts and minor league castoffs, and using a resource such as a first round selection on a guy whose ultimate upside is pitching in the 8th or 9th inning is a waste. The reward just isn’t justifiable. On the flip side, the risk is simply too high with the kids who haven’t dedicated themselves to baseball and have lost valuable development time becoming stars in other sports.
I think the history of previous drafts bear these generalizations out. Take shots on the raw athletes in the second or third round and grab a couple relievers in the fifth round and on, but let the first round be for guys who can play everyday or be part of your future rotation.
So, with that said, there’s a pretty decent chance that I’m going to groan when the Mariners selection is made in a few hours. Pretty much all the talk the last few days has linked them to a quartet of college relievers. The combination of the desire to move Morrow to the rotation and the perceived lack of a successor to J.J. Putz if they do that is driving the idea that a polished reliever who could get to the majors quickly is the way to go. It looks, right now, like the M’s will be selecting one of Andrew Cashner (Texas Christian), Josh Fields (Georgia), Ryan Perry (Arizona), and Daniel Schlereth (Arizona). Cashner’s the best of the bunch, while Fields is a step below, and Perry and Schlereth are velocity guys who light up the radar and that’s about it.
I hated the fact that the M’s were going after Casey Weathers at #11 last year, but they were saved by the fact that the Rockies took him at #8 and Phillippe Aumont fell into their laps. Let’s hope the same happens this year, but it’s a lot more to ask for four college relievers to all be off the board by #19. Odds are that at least one of them will be available, and the M”s will take the one furthest up their board. And it will be simply be the latest reason to loathe the 2008 season.
In Fontaine I trust, but please, Bob, avoid the college relievers.
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For those of you scoring from home, it is on ESPN2 at 11am. Have I told you lately I love working from home on draft days and day games?
so, who’s available for the first pick of the 2009 draft?
A strikeout machine named Steven Strasburg from San Diego State, as the boys over at Lookout Landing will gladly tell you.
Your comment makes him sound more mortal than he really is.
FWIW, Baseball America projects the M’s to take Tim Melville
In their updated mock draft, its Josh Fields. And I’ve talked with four people in baseball this morning who all say the M’s are targeting one of the relievers.
So why would Fontaine want to take a RP with a first round pick? Is the the best value left at 20?
Thanks Dave…someone from espn.com should fix their link to go to the most recent one.
Exactly. Maybe we’ll be able to snag a power hitter next year. I’m sorry to say I’m thinking reliever this year.
Is this actually something you’ve heard Dave or just speculation on your part? If true, that would at least somewhat help to soften the blow.
Dave, who would you like to see them take that’s likely to be available at #20?
You might’ve said already but I scanned the prior draft threads and couldn’t find anything.
oh, well, then.
you know, I went to school with a guy who’s name was almost Steven Strasburg, and so everytime he gets mentioned, I keep visualizing my Steve.
Not really the image of a strikeout machine.
Well, the Giants, Astros, and Dodgers all pick before the M’s, so there are three organizations that might bite on a college reliever. Could the Nationals make it four?
[we're talking about the 2008 draft, not the 2006 draft]
I think a position player would be the way to go in this draft, as its strong on hitters and a bit weak on pitchers. I’d love to see Brett Lawrie fall to #20, but that won’t happen. More realistically, maybe Zach Collier, a HS outfielder with tools and can hit.
Epic Post – Has me jacked up for the draft. I really do think Fontaine has done a great job like you said, and “In Bob we Trust” will be the motto.
I vote we don’t talk about a certain L-word from the 2006 draft today. Water under the bridge.
I also would like them to stay away from college relievers
Taking a position player would be my preference too, although I honestly am not knowledgeable enough about college/HS players to target specific players like that.
Looking at the Future Forty I’d love to see a good 1B brought into the system, but maybe it’s something where you can just move someone to 1B when they can’t field another position but their bat merits it.
Unless the thought is that Clement is probably going to end up at 1B, but I like his bat less at 1B than at catcher.
Also:
Excellent idea.
The Rockies are no slouch, either…didn’t they get both Hawpe and Atkins in the same draft, I think 5th and 11 rounds or something? The Dodgers are good with picking raw talent, too (Kemp, Billingsley, to name a couple). Unfortunately, it’s hard to argue many teams need an influx of talent like we do.
I like the kid out of B.C. … the second coming of Morneau (although that could be premature).
Any chance we get Hicks or is that way too wishful?
Year after year I expect the M’s to draft a left-handed slugger with a high pick and, other than Clement, the M’s keep disappointing me. Is it that every team values power from the left side so highly that we just never seem to luck into one at our draft slot? It just seems that this is the most pressing need for our organization year after year, and it doesn’t seem to be available in free agency. How does a team build a stadium for a left-handed power hitter, lose that hitter, and do nothing to replace him? Or do they think Raul is that hitter…the only lefty with power we need?
one of my favorite names this year is a lefty 1B, Yonder Alonso. He and Shooter Hunt are likely gone by 20, though.
Not the thread for this, but [not the thread for this]
Given the “unforeseen” demise of this year’s team (Bavasi’s words — sarcasm intended), I wonder how much thought the organization *could be putting into* this draft relative to acquiring prospects by trade-deadline deals.
Basically, could we look at the current level of mlb prospects, and if there were a shortage of LH power hitters but a longer list of relief pitching prospects, maybe we could focus our draft selections on picks where those skillsets are in short supply elsewhere?
I don’t know how Fontaine and the F.O. coordinate on draft selection, but this seems like an obvious conversation they would be having.
Argument No. 1 against drafting college relievers in the first round: David Aardsma. Yeah, he looks sort of semi-good now, but it took four organizations and six years to get to that point, and he’s not a real high-leverage guy — or much more than a random pluck from the free-talent pool.
Matt Anderson, Ryan Wagner, Joey Devine, Craig Hansen… the list is pretty long. The selling point of drafting a college reliever is that they’re a safe bet, but history shows that’s not even true.
Dave – is Gillaspie out of Wichita State a viable mid-late round option for a position player? If he falls to us, would it be a wise move?
I’ve read good things about him.
Wasn’t Adam Jones an ultra-raw two sport athlete? Sure, it’s taken him some time to develop, but he seems to be working out pretty well as a first round pick.
No, Jones wasn’t a two way athlete. He was a baseball player all the way. Tui had to be bought away from football, and his progress is more usual for that player type.
Scounts, Inc. is saying we’re high on Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State. Keith Law mentions Shooter Hunt as well.
Perhaps the one thing Bavasi does better than anything else is build a good bullpen on the cheap. Putz, Sherrill, Sean Green, O’Flaherty – didn’t use a 1st round pick on any of them.
It would be a typical Mariner decision to ignore their own recent history and go with a reliever.
Here’s praying Hicks falls or Churchill’s (and Keith Law’s) rumor that the kid from Fresno State has been cleared by our docs is true.
So . . . the Mariners are not going to fire anybody today AND they plan on drafting a reliever 20th overall? Happy Rock Bottom Day!
What’s the point of drafting a reliever to protect leads in late innings when you can’t get to the later innings with a lead? The more I think about it, the more I want to see them pick a bat.
My impression of the Mariners thoughts about building a bullpen is that “closer” and “8th-inning setup guy” are immensely valuable roles that cannot easily be filled using spare parts, AAAA pitchers, and other teams castoffs. The Mariners have shown they are willing to sign veteran players to large contracts to fill those roles, and they will deploy a talented young player such as Morrow in that role to the detriment of his development as a starting pitcher.
Thus, the Mariners likely believe that drafting a college player who can fill those roles within relatively short time is a perfectly fine use of a first round selection. I’m sure that everything being equal, the Mariners would draft a starting pitcher ahead of a reliever, but if all of the top starting pitcher talent is gone, they wouldn’t see a reason to pass on a guy just because he projects to only be a reliever.
Jones was a two-way player in that it wasn’t clear when he was drafted whether he should be a pitcher or a position player. He was not a two-sport athlete. Some people may have those issues confused.
There are a couple guys likely to be drafted early this year who are similar, although like Jones it appears their preference is usually to play the field. I’d be okay with if not super-excited about somebody like that, although in the case of Casey Kelly, he’s both a two-way player and a two-sport athlete (with a QB scholarship to Tennessee), and probably not worth what it would cost.
Tui had to be bought away from football, and his progress is more usual for that player type.
Out of curiosity Dave, is Grady Sizemore the exception that proves the rule, then?
It’s important to remember that they aren’t drafting for the 2008 Mariners but the 2009 (at the earlierst) and beyond Mariners. They likely won’t be facing the same issues they are today by the time the draftee plays a role on the team.
So, if they determine that a college reliever is the best talent available given how they evaluate the draft, then they should take a college reliever.
“. . . which will allow us to move Morrow back to the rotation. In essence, we just drafted two outstanding ballplayers with one pick, aren’t we freaking brilliant” or some crap is guaranteed to follow the M’s first pick. We should start a pool to see who can come closest to guessing the quote.
Aren’t we looking to draft someone who can swing the hell out of a folding chair? Or deliver an elbow from the top turnbuckle? I’m confused…
Yea, Sizemore obviously worked out just fine. These guys can become good players, but in general, they’re more costly to sign because they have leverage and their development time is longer, and often, they don’t reach their peak with the organization that drafted them in the first place.
37- I was thinking the same thing…they will spin it as “We really just got us a future starter in Morrow AND a reliever…”
39 – All I know is that everyone told Steve ‘Air’ McNair to play baseball … I want to stay away from the Bo Jackson’s too.
I haven’t done the math, but I’m guessing 95% of the relievers in baseball were either drafted as starters or signed as amateur FA’s. I would also venture to guess 90% of the college relievers drafted in Round 1 don’t go on to have a major league career worthy of a Round 1 selection. That’s a very small window for success if my half-assed guess is anywhere near accurate.
Likely? Surely you jest. Things will change, but we have no reason yet to believe the changes will be a net positive or will reflect any level of enlightenment in organizational philosophy. Remember, the architects of this dung heap are convinced they have no culpability for the current state.
I think we have much bigger problems than spot relief. Even if your football team only hits 40% of its field goals, there’s not much point in taking a kicker with your first pick, even if he’s arguably the best player available, if you haven’t been within three points of an opponent after halftime in two seasons. If they’re really convinced at 20 that a college eliever is the best player left on the board, then either this is one hell of a sorry talent pool, or the kid should probably be good enough to be a starter anyway, right?
#17 “Unless the thought is that Clement is probably going to end up at 1B, but I like his bat less at 1B than at catcher.”
Explain why? A bat is a bat. No?
I don’t want to let this thread drift too much, but briefly:
You have to look at a player’s offensive contribution within the context of what else is available at the position; and it’s just much easier to find a left-handed impact bat at first base/DH than it is at catcher.
So, if Clement’s position changes, you have to re-evaluate his offensive potential within the context of the overall talent pool at 1B/DH.
Does that make sense?
Dave, where do you think this reliever-love is coming from? I know (from you) that Fontaine gets to make the decisions, but clearly a – I don’t want to say mandate, but a predilicition to draft a reliever is coming from somewhere.
Does the team give him a wishlist? Does he take into account the team’s needs on his own?
ESPN yesterday basically said the Ms were said to be going after a reliever specifically because he would be the most immediate help to the big club.
The whole idea of semi-wasting a first round pick to put lipstick on a pig makes me a little ill. And strikes me as the opposite of what they should be doing.
So aside from your everyday bias against first round relievers… do you think there is any truth to the idea that they are doing it just to get help as soon as possible, even if it less rewarding long-term?
#43:
Unless you believe that “Closer” and “8th-inning setup” are key roles that are equally valuable (and as difficult to fill) as “starting pitcher” and the various fielding positions.
What’s interesting is how often baseball organization choose incorrectly when a player is as good a pitcher as he is a position player. They choose on based on transitory, short-term organizational needs rather than pure projectability, it often seems, and have to live with the fruits of that choice long after the short-term need has passed. John Van Benschoten is the name that comes to mind, but I know there are several others. I always wondered why the Pirates, faced with the reality that their decision to make him a pitcher obviously wasn’t working, didn’t try to convert him to a hitter.
See the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija (he of the five-year, $16.5 contract that puts him on the 40-man). Even with a high-90’s fastball, first-round talent (though he went much lower), and obvious athleticism, he’s got a career 4.54 strikeout rate in the minors.
There’s other justifications out there – if you feel that it’s worthwhile to trade long-term upside for short-term predictability, then it’s not a bad idea to draft a college reliever – simply because their skill set is reasonably likely to translate immediately to an MLB environment.
Look, I don’t think it’s a good idea personally, I’m just saying that it’s not necessarily irrational.
What I hate is when they draft according to what the “big” team needs. They should take the best player available. Period. If you have the #1 pick, and the best player available is a 1B, but you already have Pujols, you should still take the 1B. You can trade him, move him, etc. It’s ridiculous to draft according to what the major league team needs. This isn’t the NFL or the NBA. You take the best player available, not the best player at your “need” position.
If they take a reliever, I will join Dave in dissapointment.
You mean, does this fit in with every other job-saving, overvalued, quick-fix move they have made in the last several of years? Absolutely. If they are willing to pass on better talent with better odds of providing better long-term value, then yeah, some dude who can pitch for the big club in July is a priority.
Pretty excited that the Rays have the first pick. It certainly seems they have built a great foundation and will be able to contend with those big boys in the AL East. Would love to see the Yanks sit on the sideline. LOVE IT.
There’s all sorts of problems with the comparison to the NFL – I believe that the average career for any given NFL draftee is something like 2 years, but I’d assume that teams have relatively high confidence (compared to MLB) that the player will contribue to the organization during those two years.
In baseball, there’s a much longer career duration (6 years of team control, right?) and substantially lower predictability as to whether any given draftee will contribute. In that environment, trading upside for predictability makes more sense than it would for an NFL organization.
Which is just to make the point again, that it may not be the best philosophy but it’s not irrational IMHO.
So I ask again — if the M’s draft an RP is it because of meddling from above or is it because Fontaine actually thinks it’s a good idea?
If it’s the latter, then in Fontaine I DON’T trust Fontaine…
SHUT UP ESPN PEOPLE. STOP TALKING.
Ugh.
Bud Selig is the worst public speaker of all time.
I miss when I could just listen to the conference call rather than sit through this bloated rubbish.
I think 47 has it. The brain trust’s obsession with roles coupled with their lack of understanding of position scarcity results in decision making like this.
Ok Max, I think we are both making valid points on the opposite end of the spectrum. You’re right, it’s not inherently irrational. Unless the context is such that you are “putting lipstick on a pig,” as would the Mariners be by drafting a majors-ready 60-70 IP/season arm because he is ready to contribute now and won’t need to develop in the minors. Context is everything…every choice the Mariners make now should be with an eye to building a better club a few years down the road, and anything they do to “get better now” is purely a Dutch Boy maneuver, in my opinion.
His never ending waterfall of saliva-drenched cliches makies me physically ill. I seriously can’t watch or listen to him.
The camera is over to your right, Bud.
Bend it like Beckham
Having attended a Bud Selig event before, I can confirm that this is true. And not only is he a bad public speaker, but Q&A was a disaster. He always had these long, drawn out answers that failed to address the original question. Someone asked him how small market teams can compete, and his answer boiled down to, “The Twins are building a new stadium, and it’ll be awesome.”
Part of that problem is the college reliever will have already accumulated a significant number of IP’s. So even if the kid were ready to step in and handle major league hitters (extremely rare), special considerations regarding his usage have to be taken into account.
Is Beckham calling from Uganda? This is a disaster.
If it were a case of drafting a reliever because we need a late inning setup guy on the MLB roster, then that seems like a terrible idea. But I’m guessing, based on Fontaine’s comments regarding Morrow the other day, that he places a decent amount of value on getting contribution at the MLB level.
I should have switched loyalties to the Rays when they hired Lou. Man they have a bright future.
Dave, he’s a High School kid talking on a cell phone…lol. He’s probably got family, friends, etc… all yelling at him. He’s certainly not a polished interview. He also had his TV at volume 10 in the background.
Good job, Pittsburgh. I saw Pedro Alvarez in the summer of ‘06 and he’s like Albert Pujols younger brother. Kid can hit.
College relievers that went in the first round (not supplemental) the last five years:
Casey Weathers Col – 2007 8th pick
Craig Hansen Bos – 2005 26th pick
Joey Devine AtL – 2005 27th pick
Jacob Marceaux Fla – 2005 29th pick
Ryan Wagner Cin – 2003 14th pick
Chad Cordero Mon – 2003 20th pick
David Aardsma SF – 2003 22nd pick
I don’t know how any team could arrive at the conclusion that picking a college reliever in the first round is a smart proposition.
BA is now 3/3 on the draft so far.
I just don’t understand why they have picked a position to focus on.
In love with a specific player who is a reliever? Ok. Setting out to draft a reliever? Total madness.
I hope it’s not true, because it makes me want to punch a wall.
Does Steve Phillips think he has no heart or baseball smarts? Thats all that he thinks it takes to get to the majors and he never made it.
[long link]
You can’t watch Alvarez hit and not see Pujols. It’s so clear.
First semi surprise?
I liked the goofy nature of the calls.
Number of those guys that Fontaine drafted: 0
Ife he’s good at his job and if he thinks that it’s a good year to take less risk in return for less upside and he sees a guy that he concludes is low(er) risk, then he should take that guy.
It’s not some random, poorly thought out move (like moving Morrow to the rotation last year or signing Silva to $48/4). It seems like there’s a reasonable thought process behind it.
ooh, ESPN forced to talk about the draft slots and teams going against it …
I don’t care who’s doing the drafting, it’s easy to see that it’s stupid to expect college relievers to repeat their success in the bigs. Boston, Florida, and Atlanta typically draft very well, and they all picked bombs.
Craig Hansen had a pitch (slider) coming out of college that would’ve been one of the best pitches in the majors. He was as much a slam dunk as any college reliever, and he was taken by an organization that drafts VERY well. So far, he’s been garbage. It’s not a smart play to take a reliever, and I don’t have any confidence that Fontaine has a magic eye that can judge which one of these guys is the one-of-ten that won’t bust.
I think Pedro was a slam dunk, and I’m surprised that, even with Beckham’s upside, the Rays didn’t take a player many people consider the best hitter to enter the draft in five or ten years.
Justin Smoak is the one falling according to BA
Well this answers my question. Out of seven players drafted four are lefty hitters. I guess I can take heart that this year’s record will catapult the M’s into “lefty power bat” territory in next year’s draft.
Some scouts prefer Alonso to Smoak, so it shouldn’t be considered a surprise he is still on the board . . . unless he continues to fall.
Wow, Alonso went high at seven. He’s a guy who should move quickly too, which will give the Reds an interesting problem in a couple of years.
Here’s a great example of a smart team taking the best player available. The Reds have had outstanding drafts the last few years, and they just took a guy who plays the same position as one of their best young players.
What is it? Why any reliever this year? Are you suggesting they should draft in order to help the big club asap? Why else target a reliever?
Look, I’m willing to believe the rumors are all a smokescreen. I’m willing to believe that the rumors are all front office, not Fontaine, and he’ll do what he wants. I’m willing to believe he is being directed to do something.
But I am not willing to believe their is a logical reason to target best-available-f***ing reliever in the first round.
I’m willing to believe Fontaine isn’t actually doing it, but if he is… I’m not going to act like it must be wise because he’s doing it.
I’d agree – if it’s all about drafting a reliever, well that seems like a terrible idea to me too.
It’s just that Fontaine’s been pretty adept in the past as best as I can tell.
Maybe Smoak got arrested this morning for peeing on a hobo and he’ll somehow fall to us at 20.
As a fan, I love the other Beckham. Watched him play on TV a couple of times this season. He’s like a Michael Young / Eric Byrnes hybrid.
I agree. I love him. I also trust him. I also trust Dave. So I want to be clear that I am only reacting to the stuff from the espn guys the last couple days… which could be a huge mistake.
I guess my fear is that after seeing the insanity coming from management the last few days, I wouldn’t be surprised if they panicked and screwed up our good thing with Fontaine.
I would assume the rumors were all nonsense if Dave hadn’t gotten some of the same info. Then I start to worrying that we’re going to see a creature come out of Fontaine’s belly and realize that… they’d gotten to him, too.
No Smoak yet. But another ten teams need to pass on him before we could take him.
WTF? Who in their right mind passes over Smoak for Castro?
Make that nine.
There’s no way Smoak gets past Oakland.
Yeah, but the mechanics would just seem odd. For one thing, let’s say that the word is coming from above that ‘we need to get an impact player to affect the ‘08 season.’ This is supposed to lead to them drafting a relief pitcher? I can understand the desire to patch for Morrow moving to the rotation, but that’s still basically an ‘09 move.
Stanford must mint left-handed hitting, major league caliber catchers in a laboratory somewhere.
Okay, who can we hope to fall now?
Mark Ellis can officially file for free agency now.
Yeah, how about that pick? Beane may be looking for players that can move quickly (to the majors, not just on the basepaths).
Root for Aaron Hicks, Brett Lawrie, or Zach Collier.
AARon Hicks… a left handed outfielder with power, also could be moved to 1st base
Dave: How do you feel about Brett Wallace?
Dave…how about Ike Davis?
You don’t move an athlete like Hicks to first base.
Cool. Done.
When the Ms get on the clock, could you throw out who you would take?
Keith Law’s mock on espn is pretty dang accurate. He had the As taking Weeks.
Brett Wallace is the ‘08 Matt LaPorta. Not a good fit for an NL club that already has Pujols.
Well, I posted that right before he got picked by the Cards. Looks like the college sluggers aren’t falling today.
Gordon Beckham borrowed Donald Trump’s hair.
Boy, that Hicks pick hurt twice.
First, when the Twins picked him.
Second when, after two minutes of praising him, they compared him to “Adam Jones, the new star in Baltimore.”
If the Brewers really use Lawrie at catcher, they could field the worst defensive team ever: Lawrie, Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and LaPorta…
Yeah, it was like Donald Trump’s and Jimmy Johnson’s barbers had a kid.
And… poop. There goes #2 on your list of three, Dave.
It’s hard being an M’s fan.
so who was that with the apple-polishing response to the Seattle pick, after Law trashed it?
Clownshoes. The official footwear of the Seattle Mariners.
Oh my god! Our future is so bright! In a year or so we might have a new RELIEVER! The rest of the AL West trembles at the echo of our momentous first round pick.
We are the Mariners.
Fear us.
Really the cherry on top of the metaphorical guano sundae that is this year for the Mariners.
So… what’s the next step for the Mariners? Do they try to restart and build around Felix? Do they try to go for it again next year? I’m so confused about this team.
As much as I don’t like this pick, we probably should wait until we see how Fontaine does in the later rounds before we start with the hand-wringing.
Jeff Nye… overall, sure.
But he could draft brilliantly the rest of the way, and it doesn’t mean he couldn’t have also drafted brilliantly at the top.
However good he does, it will always be -1. The biggest “1″, too.
And I wouldn’t be nearly as upset if it wasn’t clear that the Ms were targeting him because he was a reliever.
And this team has made enough inexcusable moves for me to judge them harshly for another desperate move to save the careers of men who don’t deserve it. It is depressing.
Right, and believe me, I agree with you; but Fontaine is really, really good at finding value in the later rounds (by all accounts); so whatever the agenda was that ended up with him picking Fields, I still have faith that this could turn out be a decent draft based on what happens later on.
Not great, but decent.
You’re right, Jeff.
I’m excited to see what he does.
Therein may lie hope.
yeah, luke burnett could be a late round steal in the 14th round. last summer after the cape league he was pegged as a first rounder, but slid cause he had a bad spring.