Piling on
For those of you wondering why Willie Bloomquist was batting second today, it’s becasue the team wanted Jose Lopez to hit fifth. He’s been their most productive guy for a while now and Adrian Beltre was supposed to get a full day off to rest. So, it wasn’t because Bloomquist is a great No. 2 hitter. It’s because the team needed a No. 5 guy and their options were limited. Hope that helps.
[sic]
* You want your best hitters up in the order. If you only did one thing to create a lineup and stacked your guys by goodness, regardless of power/contact/whatever, you’d be pretty close to the best possible one. They get more at-bats. You want your good hitters to get the good at-bats.
* If McLaren was entirely serious about that justification, he doesn’t understand the simplest thing about how to put a lineup together, is entirely unqualified for his job, and should be fired immediately.
* They pinch-hit with Beltre, so that full day of rest thing didn’t quite work out (not that I disagree with pinch-hitting him).
* Lopez is not the team’s most productive hitter lately. It’s Jeremy Reed, or Ibanez, or Ichiro.
* Or if you want the last month, it’s Betancourt (seriously, check out the last 30 day splits)
* Unless you’re evaluating productivity by some strange standard besides “hitting” which is the only thing that should matter in a lineup.
* It still makes absolutely no sense, if you’re going to stick the guy you think is the best hitter in the #5 slot (which itself makes no sense) to stick two absolute offensive sink holes into the #2 and #3 spots. Why not just go up before the game, set fire to your lineup card, and then go tell Felix he’ll have to allow -1 runs if he wants the win?
Someone please fire McLaren and lower the city’s blood pressure. It’ll save lives. I’m serious.
8. Given the McLaren ‘interviews’ I’ve seen on TV this year, they go like this: McLaren starts a monologue, goes uninterrupted until he is done, and then leaves. So I’m guessing Geoff got no follow-up question in because McLaren’s monologue format allows no room for it.
Seth, not to pile on or anything, but how does Willie bunting Ichiro over get you a run? It gets you Ichiro on second base, with an out gone, and more nothings coming to the plate. A lineup that widely separates its only decent hitters is a lineup that leaves men on base. Oh, and Willie sucks at bunting, which also blows your theory up a little.
That’d be an interesting experiment, anyway.
For the current regulars, it’d be:
Ichiro
Ibanez
Reed
Lopez
Beltre
Betancourt
Sexson
Johjima
Vidro
Which sure as hell beats batting Bloomquist second and Vidro third.
Or, if you do it by OPS:
Ibanez
Lopez
Ichiro
Reed
Beltre
Betancourt
Sexson
Vidro
Johjima
Ibanez hitting leadoff might not be the best idea, but other than that, that doesn’t look like that bad of a batting order either.
Small sample size caveat about Reed applies too in both cases, so you might want to move him down some depending on your opinion of him.
that doesn’t look like that bad of a batting order either.
Caveat required: It doesn’t look that bad, given what there is to work with. These lineups still aren’t anything to get excited about, but at least they’re not as self-defeating.
Well, yeah. My optimal batting order wouldn’t have Vidro anywhere in it.
But, if you insist on the hilarious concept of having Jose Vidro as your DH, he shouldn’t be any higher than 8th.
I’m not a stat guy, or a non stat guy, but it wouldn’t surprise me that some of these ‘old school’ managers deliberately ignore the stats because they’re scared of being made obsolete. So they make these irrational moves because it’s ‘old time’ baseball. There’s a certain element of that, I’ll admit, that makes baseball interesting. Someone going strictly by the numbers probably wouldn’t have pinch hit an injured Kirk Gibson like Lasorda did for the “I don’t believe what I just saw” homer off Eckersley in the WS.
Bad decisions that get good results is exciting? Hm.
Today’s lineup was really just putting an ugly dress on a pig. Optimizing the Ms lineup would probably be worth maybe 30 runs this season.
My still-not-very-encouraging lineup if I could do whatever I wanted with the guys in the organization:
Ichrio CF
Ibanez DH
Beltre 3B
Clement C
Lopez 2B
Reed LF
Betancourt SS
Balentien RF
Sexson 1B
Against lefties I might sit Reed and/or Ibanez and let either or both Bloomy or Cairo play to keep them in the mix of things. But not batting higher than eighth.
Fire McLaren? Seems like just more deck chair rearranging. Firing anyone lower than Armstrong right now is pointless.
All I know is that I’ve been pointing out the misspelling of “Caffeinated Confines” for, like, three years now.
It’s like the Curse of the Billy Goat, I bet. If DMZ would pay more attention to my copy edits, we’d be in first PLACE.
#60:
Well I don’t have a violin and Kate Winslet is nowhere to be found. So while the !@##!@ ship is sinking I’d like to rearrange some !@#!@#% chairs, if you don’t mind.
If you find Kate Winslet, let me know.
Although it’s about the draft, DePodesta’s point about good process in this post seems relevant here. Just because you got a good outcome by batting Bloomquist second, it doesn’t make it a good decision.
Yeah, but you might disagree with the reason Mac gave for pinch-hitting Beltre instead of Wlad. He said if he used Wlad, then he wouldn’t have anyone left to pinch run later, since Beltre couldn’t run. Holy Smokes. Well, that’s what you get, Mac, for starting Bloomquist. He’s not available to pinch run in the 14th inning…
And speaking of Beltre,
Well, whatever you do, don’t read the comments. I made that mistake yesterday, and ran into a thread that made my teeth hurt. Some troll, named, oddly enough, The Troll, started off by mongering a rumor about Sexson hitting the bottle and suggesting the M’s fine him to get back his salary. Having thus estabilished his credibility, he went on to start a tag-team argument about whether Beltre sucked, or was just unlucky. At one point, after confusing probability with possibility, he claimed that results based analysis was superior to probability analysis because if the predictions made by the probabilities didn’t come true, then the probability theory didn’t “attend to reality” and was worthless. Baker’s blog is not worthless, but the comments on it generally are. So, yay moderators! (who will probably now delete this as OT… hahaha).
I’m going to leave it for now, since this post IS about Baker’s blog; but I can’t promise someone else won’t squash it.
Let’s not drive too far down that particular road, however. We all know that Baker’s blog attracts a different audience than USSM, and while moderating here can occasionally be mildly frustrating, I’d go insane if I had to read the comments there on a daily basis, and it makes me feel bad for Geoff.
We’ve seen this numerous times, it’s all about having to fill “roles”. This is of course rediculous to any person with any cognitive ability, but the old school thinking of how to approach the game is so engrained in the whole FO and coaches. This is why we need two WFB, or why Vidro was traded for in the first place, stupid of course, but at least you see why they make some of their decisions.
So she can bat 2nd.
Yeah, it’d be better to let that argument die…..because you are leaving a great deal of it out, and posting it a bit out of order…..granted, Troll did say that stuff about Sexson, which is awful, but that was after the whole Beltre argument…..I was part of that, and I don’t recall anyone saying Beltre sucked (He doesn’t)…..I recall the argument being more about him being unlucky. I think things balance out, and don’t really call him unlucky…..
Yes, I was mostly trying to highlight the benefits of moderation. People occasionally complain that “dissent” is stifled, but we don’t have very many debates that play out over dozens of comments and boil down to “I believe X and I believe Y…”
Yeah, I’d really rather the discussion not veer into harping on the comments on Baker’s blog
Both named Bonds! Bobby led off for a significant part of his career, Barry a little bit early in his career. (I batted Barry first for several seasons in a Diamond Mind league… might as well get as many PA as possible for a guy with an OPS of 1300, but the real-life Barry probably wouldn’t have sat still for that.)
If by “pure power hitter” we mean plodding slugger with high OBP, the most recent I can think of to lead off regularly was Brian Downing.
There are a lot of guys with pop leading off — Hanley Ramirez! — but Soriano is the only one I’d rank as close to being a “pure” power hitter. I don’t think he’s a leadoff guy, but it seems to be working for the Cubs.
I can’t speak for all stat geeks but I personally don’t have a problem with sometimes not going strictly by the book. There are of course areas where the stats don’t tell you what to do (though many that tell you what not to do which is what’s infuriating about today’s lineup -but i digress…).
What infuriates me is that these guys don’t really know the difference. McLaren actually believes in what he is doing. It’s not because he is stupid or stubborn though. He learned this in this organization and it is all he has ever known. He is a product of this environment and more generally the environment that pervades baseball.
There are folks that say that Billy Beane is full of sh*t because they haven’t won a WS. Even if you agree with that argument, it misses the point completely, which is that the A’s are consistently a good team while spending a lot less than others. The fact that he hasn’t won a WS however is used as evidence that his approach is ultimately flawed. His teams -is said- are not built for the post-season.
In baseball -more than most sports it seems- there are ingrained “truths” that cannot be challenged. I guarantee you that there are many managers that believe in a more scientific approach but don’t do it because they know it will not get them far in the organization. Imagine if you are a manager in the minor leagues for the Mariners -what do you think will move you up the organization quicker?
And guess what, even if Mac gets fired they are going to hire a manager with similar values -or at least a manager that knows what the values of the Mariner’s organization is. Until such time there is a change in the values and principles of the organization we will continue to suffer this terrible fate.
Ok sorry for the ramblings…
That’s it! Bavasi has the exact opposite approach to team-building from that of Beane. The M’s are custom-made to win in the post-season! Problem is, they’ll never get there since they aren’t made for the regular season.
But if the M’s make the wild-card they’re going all the way, baby.
I know this was probably tongue-in-cheek, but if the M’s actually somehow made it to the playoffs, a three-man rotation of Felix, Bedard, and…uh…well, we’d have a good chance of winning two out of three.
Ah yes, the days when the Mariners went to the post-season. I even remember going to Cleveland…Will I ever buy post season tickets again?
It’s a good thing that batting Bloomquist second did not work out (DePodesta link in 64), because bad processes producing good results have already screwed the Mariners over pretty bad. If they didn’t inexplicably win 88 games last year with a bad team, then Jones, Sherrill, and Tillman would still be on the team and Silva would not be. The team may well be better this year (could they be worse?)and would certainly be better next year.
Just thought I’d get my 2 pesos in on a “get fired” lineup. As if there’s anyone bright enough at a level to make that decision.
1 Vidro, Professional Hitter, CF
2 Felix, Confused Target, C
3 Carlos Silva, Lightning Fast, SS
4 Erik Bedard, can get in some practice trying to throw out runners from, RF
5 Putz, Injured or not, 2B
6 Morrow, Happy to get some innings, 1B
7 Collossus of Rhodes, 3B
8 Miguel Batista, can work on his next novel in, LF
9 Dickey, also happy for some playing time, though not a big fan of, DH
DH at 9, isn’t it lovely. Who’s pitching? Scrappy Miguel, of course.
Why isn’t this team firing people and DFAing players?
Too funny – I’ve always thought that the Mariners raised my blood pressure to abnormal amounts.
78: Seems like using pitchers in a “worst lineup ever” is kind of cheating. Or otherwise changing players’ field positions. Also, Vidro gets a lot of (deserved) hate, but he is certainly a much better hitter than all the M’s pitchers.
#79 – Because Bavasi doesn’t want Lincoln or Armstrong to get in a firing mood.
81: Yeah, well… I read the book, baseball loves a cheater.
No, I’m kidding, you’re right, but I was too enamored of the idea of McLaren sending Felix out to be repeatedly run over at the plate while the rest of the team runs around like chickens with their heads cut off. In retrospect, Felix wouldn’t get run over much, since nobody would ever get the ball back in to him in time to make a play.
I think he was going for..
1. Ichiro – Hit! (walk?)
2. Out
3. Out Double Play
4. Out
Next inning
5. Lopez (apparently 2nd best hitter) – Hit!
6. Out
7. SO Out
8. Out Double Play
9. profit?
Thus insuring we get a hit EVERY inning (may not work out)! Yippy, that’s just what we want. That’s how you win games!
If we got four outs every other inning, we might actually be able to score some runs!
Derek-
What’s with Balentien only starting four of the 10 games in June? Sure, he’s not hitting for average, but the walk rate and power are encouraging for a rookie, and Wlad’s the type of hitter you’d expect to have an adjustment period.
Obviously this team’s not going to move Ibanez to DH or 1B, Reed to LF, and Vidro or Sexson to the bench. Does that mean Wlad gets sent down, or does he continue to rot on the bench in Seattle?
I think Wlad and Reed are a platoon at this point.
There’s rotting going on all over the place.
Wlad is rotting on the bench..
Clement is rotting in AAA..
Sexson, Vidro, Cairo, Bloomquist are rotting on the field..
There’s rotting going on all over the place.
Don’t forget about Elia’s rotten boiled eggs.
I hear she’s going to be at the feed …
Had a quick suggestion for the USSM – I don’t know what the authors will think about this – but it might amusing given the depressing nature of this year (or the past 6 for that matter)
I was looking around different baseball blogs and came across Dodger Blues ‘for the frustrated Los Angeles Dodger Fan.’
Very funny site – and maybe we can put something on the USSM similar to the “Time Since the Last Meaningful Dodger Moment’ ticker or ‘Scroll your mouse over Nomar to watch him breathe’ graphic.
I’m thinking DMZ, Dave, and the crew have some arsenal for these type of comedic site additions.
Not saying we should copy them by any means – and I know there is a certain level of integrity that makes this blog top of the line … but maybe lets try to lighten the mood, it’s rather depressing in Mariner nation.
What do you all think? I’ll take your comments off the air.
In the spirit of piling it on, seems like the M’s have a chance to really shorten the season (as long as the A’s keep playing well of course…and my math is right):
M’s are eliminated when 0 = 163 – (Angel wins + Mariners losses). The Angels are winning 0.612 * games played; Mariners are loosing 0.636 * games played.
So somewhere around 130 games played, McLaren’s lineups are exactly meaningless as far as “turning the (f-bomb) season around”. I think that’s around late August, after we play the Twins at home and leave for Cleveland — just in time for the September roster changes.
Remember when guys got cut or traded for batting under .250 and only hitting half a dozen homers? Like Bret Boone, jeff Cirillo, Rich Aurilia, Miguel Olivo, Greg Dobbs, Bucky…. I hate to say it, but the line up looks better with some of these guys mixed into it. By the old standards, we would have about 3 guys left on the team.
I hate to bring up Bucky, but Really. Wouldn’t it at least be nice to have a guy like that to cheer for right now? If it where my team, Bucky could hit 4th Friday.
Irish- on comment 86.
I am asking the same question about Wlad. It doesn’t feel right to keep a guy on a loosing team and not let him play when obviously he needs it. We made the Adam Jones trade with the back thought that Wlad was going to answer the opening sooner than later. Wlad has a tonn of talent, but lots of polishing is needed. He could be really good in a few years, or he could be selling used cars if Mac keeps doing this to him.
2 Felix, Confused Target, C
thats some funny shit right there.
I’m beginning to think he has blackmail material on the entire front office. It’s really the only explanation for him still having a job.
Bavasi in a hot tub with the Mariner Moose. I’m telling you guys…
Watched the replay of the game this evening, WFB comes up in the 8th, and I had to do a double take, his average said .159.
Then, he struck out.
Is all of life this futile?
Chippy Clamnuts may be batting .159, but he is kewl, and all the locals love him!
This is the most recent thread that I can be in the galaxy of on-topic for this. And, doubtful anyone will see it. Anyhow, Jayson Stark on the Mariners:
Deal-less in Seattle: What’s even more terrifying than having the worst record in baseball? How about having a team like that and almost nothing you can deal?
We’ve been running through the Mariners’ trade options with people across the sport. And those options look worse than you’d imagine, considering how many of these same people once thought this was a team that could win the West. Here are some of the topical names — and the reactions we heard:
Erik Bedard? “Only a different GM could trade him.”
Richie Sexson? “Useless.”
Adrian Beltre? “For the money [$12M next year], impossible to find a fit.”
Carlos Silva? See above.
Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista? “I’m not sure you could give them away.”
Raul Ibanez? “He’s got a lot of value. But he wouldn’t get you an elite player. Just a couple of parts.”
Jose Lopez? “Ordinary guy. Not as good as his numbers.”
Ichiro? “Can’t trade him.”
J.J. Putz? “They’d never trade him.”
Felix Hernandez? “Ha-ha-ha-ha. You’re kidding, right?”
In sum, there’s no one the Mariners can afford to trade who has significant value — and no one with value they’d even think about trading. One baseball man’s review of this situation: “Hopeless.”