This Is Why You’re Terrible
As always, Larry Stone checks in with a well written, well reasoned piece on what the conclusion of the GM search will say about the organization. In it, he talks to Mat Olkin (who, despite still being on retainer here, works for the KC Royals now), who the M’s hold up as their carrot that they understand real statistical analysis and its applications to roster management. He also talks to Chuck Armstrong about that side of the game and gets this quote:
In my own mind, I’ve used statistical analysis the whole time I’ve been in the game,” he said. “I will also say Bill Bavasi, among the various GMs I’ve had here, has used it the most of anybody.
“On the other hand, I’ve learned if you just keep going with the cold hard statistics, that’s not the optimal way, either. Talk to some of the old-line scouts, and they’ll tell you that of the top 10 things to look for, the top three or four are makeup, makeup, makeup. Then after that you start looking at tools.
Bob Fontaine is an old-line scout. Let me quote him from the USSM event on Saturday (you know, when those inflexible stathead nerds and their computers spent a few hours talking scouting with an old line scout): “I’m from the Branch Rickey school of scouting. My first word was tools.”
If you talk to Bob, you’ll know that while he believes that makeup is important, he also believes its nearly impossible to predict. He’ll tell stories of guys that admitted they weren’t fans of the game and everyone assumed they wouldn’t play hard, but once they put the jersey on they were the best makeup guys around. He will say, straight out, that Jim Abbott is the only guy he’s ever been 100% sure of on a player’s makeup, and he’s been scouting for 30 years. One dude, in 30 years, that he felt comfortable saying “yea, I have a good feel for that guy’s makeup”.
Until the Mariners organization decides to start valuing baseball players for their abilities and not their personalities, this team will always suck. The absolute must have quality the next GM must possess is the willingness to tell Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln to take their desire to see a team full of guys with the right kind of personality and shove it where the sun don’t shine.
Your top ten that includes makeup, makeup, and makeup at 1-3 on the priority list, Chuck? It’s ridiculously stupid, and you need to throw it away. This isn’t stats vs scouts – this is reason and intelligence versus your particular brand of drivel.
Hire someone who knows how to build a baseball team and get out of the way. Thank you.
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When I was tuning into KJR yesterday, stone was throwing words out like ‘Sabermetric’ and ‘New School thinking.’
Very exciting to see that we have been making some headway. Maybe more people will stop and think, “Gee, I dont know what Sabermetrics are – maybe I should look it up and educate myself?”
I think Stone is worth more Runs than Bavasi ever will be worth. Combined.
These kind of quotes make me think that Armstrong and Lincoln do not get it, aren’t getting it and will never get it.
That gives me no hope for their GM search.
Is the focus on makeup the reason they’re putting lipstick on this pig?
Dave, I think your analysis is dead on, but your conclusion is suspect. Armstrong is like many executives. He thinks he knows what is best for the “Company”, but is too: take your pick….stupid, stubborn, resistant to new ideas, or willing to admit he has made a mistake.
Armstrong will NOT get out of the way of a new GM, embrace new ideas, or do anything but interfere until he is struck by lightning or a two x four. Mid-management, which is what a GM is, can not fix upper management that is hell bent on a path of mediocrity.
I agree that the M’s will play better then they have so far this year, but I also fear that will make the M’s front office conclude that they are on the right track. In reality as long as fans come through the gates to watch them there will be no change in philosophy because the morons at the top have no incentive to change direction.
The model that really works is south in Oakland. The owner is absolutely committed to winning, and to staying the hell out of the way of his GM. He was smart enough to insure complete loyalty by giving Billy Beane a piece of ownership. The A’s have been kicking ass with a $48 million dollar payroll. When or IF they get their new ball park they will dominate in the same fashion as Boston.
And what’s their record been over the past 20 years, Mr. Armstrong? And what’s yours been? And who UNDERSTANDS stats?
Here’s a stat for you Chuck: $2,000,000/W. That’s 2 million bucks per win man. A’s are getting theirs for like 1/4 – 1/3 of that.
Of course, his response would probably be: “Yeah, it’s bad. But next time you nerds complain about Vidro, notice that we’re paying him 8.5 Mil, so he’s worth 4.25 wins! That’s pretty good!”
Makeup, to Chuck Armstrong, means “a player who Chuck Armstrong likes.”
Chuck Armstrong was brought here by George Argyros, who didn’t like players with long hair, because he was a right-wing authoritarian p—k.
Why should Chuck Armstrong get to meddle in baseball decisions? What does Chuck Armstrong know about talent evaluation? Why is Chuck Armstrong drawing a paycheck from this team?
Chuck Armstrong is as responsible as anyone is for this team’s failure. No positive change occurs until Chuckles the Clown is shown the door.
Armstrong’s going to hire a character guy. Watch for it. We’re going to win AFTER Armstrong retires.
I’d be interested to hear from Olkin the answer to this question: “Were you ever asked to evaluate HoRam, and if so what did you say?” Then repeat, with “Vidro” and “Cairo” in there.
I hate the pesimism that is being thrown around about the changes that are soon to come. I hate it because it’s probably true.
Chuck Armstrong stat analysis: “One potato, two potato, three potato, four…”
Actually, I do believe they use stat analysis. While listening only to scouts isn’t a horrible way to determine skill sets, it doesn’t tell the whole tale. Thus, they will glance at the stats and see if it fits their mold.
The problem is, they’re looking at the wrong stats. They’re undoubtedly using batting average, RBI, ERA, and other useless / baseless stats. Chuck Armstrong has barely the brain capacity to know what stat analysis is let alone what it means to use SABR stat analysis.
Re: “Talk to some of the old-line scouts, and they’ll tell you that of the top 10 things to look for, the top three or four are makeup, makeup, makeup.
Or You can’t be sure about a prospect until you look into his eyes.
What’s with these guys? Don’t they realize that much of this world’s trouble–including Mariner roster contruction–is caused by these amateur psychologists.