2008 Trade Value Post (Sorta)
Dave · June 30, 2008 at 8:28 am · Filed Under Mariners
So, the last few years, I’ve written up posts on the most valuable players in baseball, taking age, contract, and salary into account. I’m doing it again this year, but as a week long series over at FanGraphs. I’ll be doing five players at a time, twice a day, through Friday, leading up to #1-#5 on Friday afternoon.
#46 to #50 is up now, and #41-#45 will be up in about 5 1/2 hours.
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It’s really interesting to see Johan Santana so low on the list, whereas a few years ago he might’ve been in the top ten.
Looking forward to the rest of this series!
I’d actually would have thought his rather huge contract (what, $115 mil left on five-plus years) would have left him off the list entirely.
Dave,
What is your basis for valuing Loney over those other guys. For instance, couldn’t you say Joey Votto’s opposite field power at such an early stage in his career makes him a threat to be a perennial all star? Or that Jackson’s plate discipline and defensive versatility will make him invaluable in a young and developing offense in Arizona? I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it seems like all of these guys are going to be pretty good. Why do you think Loney’s future projects the best?
In Santana’s case, the leverage he held was a huge factor in the Twins’ paltry return, talent-wise. He had a blanket no-trade clause that he was more than willing to exercise unless he signed a lucrative extension with the team of his choice. That greatly reduced his value as a trade asset to the Twins. I realize you alluded to that in the Fangraphs post but it irked me how that was overlooked in opinions of the trade immediately afterward.
One aspect of Simmons’ columns I have always found fascinating is the value of having the rights to an expiring contract. In many instances that can be a boon in the soft-cap NBA, while it is almost always a negative in the non-capped MLB.
Given that the MLB also has a more uneven playing field in terms of $$$ spent it will be interesting to see how contract value is incorporated in these rankings.
… you are factoring grit and veteraness into these rankings as well, right Dave?
In light of your M’s trade value post, I’m very curious where you’d place Felix on this list.
I’ll bet Felix is still top-ten. I’ll bet there’s no other M’s on the list, or even close to it.
#7 I would think that Lopez and Putz would be on there mostly based on contract.
Why?
And I think Bedard might make Top 50 too.
I take that all back. Top 50 Tradable is in an entirely more elite class than what I was thinking. Top 50 is like like best 1 or 2 per team.
Felix for sure. No Bedard. Possibly Clement? Especially if he can prove he can catch at the major-league level?
Felix will be the only mariner on the list. He’s young, exremely talented, and for the time being has a dirt cheap contract. Bedard won’t be on here (injury concerns), and I would be surprised to see Lopez on the list. Ichiro is a bit advanced in years, is a little underappreciated, and has a huge (though deserved) contract.
Lopez? Maybe you could dupe a Bavasi-like GM into overpaying for him, but I think Dave is looking for true value.
If you think Bedard would be on the list, ask yourself this: would you trade Carlos Zambrano straight-up for Erik Bedard?
Some Mariners who just missed the cut:
9,999. Richie Sexson
1,633. Carlos Silva
1,632. Jose Vidro
1,320. Miguel Batista
1,178. Jarrod Washburn
If I were offered Big Z for Bedard, I’d send Erik packing in a heartbeat
In all seriousness, however, Zambrano being that low on the list has the same reasoning as Santana. Big contract, lots of time left on it. Not something that’s highly valued at the deadline, especially in recent years. They’re both valuable, top-shelf pitchers, but no-one would want to take those contracts during the season, and likely not even in the offseason.
Felix is the only Mariner on the list.
As for Loney versus the other first baseman, it’s hair splitting. There were about 15 guys I considered for the #50 spot. I think, in retrospect, I should have picked Nick Markakis, but the #50-#65 guys are all pretty much the same. Pick whichever one you want.
Without knowing too much about various players’ performance, age, and contract situations, I think Felix is a pretty likely bet for #1. A 3.38 FIP from a 22 year-old making nothing is absurd. Off the top of my head, I’d think Josh Hamilton is the only player who might edge him out.
Josh Hamilton at #1? Uh, no.
David Wright, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, possibly Jose Reyes, possibly Brian McCann, would be among my top 5 or so. I don’t think Hamilton even makes this list.
You don’t think Hamilton makes the list?
Seriously??????
I’d think he’s a lock for top 10 at the worst. I’m not sure how his defense rates but his bat and contract are phenomenal and his defense is at least decent. There’s no way in hell he’s less valuable than James Loney.
Oh yeah, Lincecum could be #1 too. I think Felix just squeaks by thanks to being 2 years younger.
I’m interested to see where Ian Kinsler ends up. I don’t know if he has any defensive value, but his performance this year probably pushes him into the top 20.
Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips…
I cannot imagine how you would think that Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be on this list.
I don’t think I’d put him at #1 myself, but really, you think that James Loney has more trade value than Josh Hamilton?
As far as Felix goes…he’s got to be top 10 in my mind at the very least, but I don’t think we should make Dave give up too much of his list before he’s ready.
OK, maybe “not on the list” is a bit harsh. His talent alone is tough to match.
But as a trade property, I imagine there’s enough doubt about his ability to stay healthy and stay in center full time to knock him down a few notches. And as great as he’s played this year, we’re likely witnessing his peak. There are several guys, in addition to the few I named, who have a longer track record, are younger and play premium defensive positions at a high level.
It will be fun to follow this and see where he winds up.
Even before his monster year this year, the Rangers (who may not be the smartest team in baseball, but they’re definitely not the dumbest) thought Hamilton was good enough to give up Edinson Volquez and toss in Danny Herrera.
He’s also making $400k this year.
If I were making this list, he’d be in the top 10 at the very least. I don’t think there’s nearly the amount of doubt about his future as you think, nor do I think we’re necessarily seeing his peak.
Now that he seems to have put his substance abuse problems behind him, Josh Hamilton is seriously awesome.
Jeff,
Good points. To be fair, Volquez hadn’t demonstrated nearly the ability he’s shown this year either.
Hamilton could be anything – he could put up a couple Pujols-level years and it wouldn’t surprise anyone. His rise has really been fun to watch.
Well, Volquez isn’t quite as good as his “traditional” stats would lead people to believe, either; that 2.08 ERA is being driven in large part by a 0.36 HR/9 which is pretty far from his career norms and might not be sustainable.
On the other hand, he’s made big strides in his GB% (38.2% to 50.6%) and HR/FB% (9.8% to 5.4%), so there’s real improvement there too. He’s keeping the ball down and not all of that HR/9 is a mirage. He’s the groundball/strikeout pitcher that Felix shows flashes of, and while he doesn’t have the same amount of talent as Felix, he’s more consistent.
He might not have been the shiniest pitching prospect, but even at the time of the trade Volquez had pretty good upside; I don’t know much about Herrera but I’ve seen positive talk about him as well.
I want to see Hamilton keep up this performance for another 1/2-to-full season before I am convinced he can perform around this level in the long term. That said, he still might be #1.
After a little more thought, my stab at a top 5:
#1: Felix
#2: Lincecum
#3: Hamilton
#4: Sizemore
#5: Utley
I think the really difficult issue as far as putting together a list at the high end is how to distinguish the superstars who are somewhat underpaid (Utley) from those with lesser production who make nothing (Sizemore, Felix).
As for a couple other players being talked about, Volquez maybe makes the top 10, while McCann settles in around 15-20, with Soto just beating him out. Soto is possibly better and has several more years of club control.
Well, Hamilton’s only signed through the end of the year, and you’re not going to resign him for $400k. So I’m not sure I’d put him at #1.
But I’d think the opportunity to even have the conversation with him for the rest of the year (assuming the Rangers would move him, which I can’t see them doing) before other teams get a crack at him puts him in the top 10.
Edison Volquez? Jay Bruce? Evan Longoria?
Whoa… didn’t read some of the other comments before I posted, I’m obviously a bit behind with the volquez thing.
Doesn’t Hamilton have a few more years of club control, though? Cot’s says he only has 1 year of ML service time.
I can’t imagine Geovany Soto is considered more valuable than McCann. Not much track record, and he’s a year older than McCann, believe it or not. I think you’re placing too much emphasis on contract/club control.
Well, Hamilton’s only signed through the end of the year, and you’re not going to resign him for $400k.
Hamilton will not even be arbitration eligible this offseason, so the Rangers control how much he makes next year. Like the M’s with Felix, the Rangers might be nice and give him $500,000 instead of $400,000.
Just to throw a few more names out there- Carlos Quentin and anybody on the Marlins who’s playing well since they all have dirt cheap contracts down there.
Oh, he’s not arb eligible? I only had time for a quick glance at Cot’s.
That definitely moves him up the list in my mind, then, and I should’ve taken the time to look a little more closely. My bad!
If he’s under team control for another couple of years, yeah, you can make a very good case for him at #1. That kind of bat that can play at least a credible center field…I’ll take two.
I feel a general preference for young players having “breakout” seasons, but little major-league track record to support them. When I think of highest trade value, I think of those players who are most coveted from a build-your-team-around perspective, rather than a who-has-peak-value-right-now perspective.
That’s the thing though, we have this same sort of discussion every time someone wants to say Beltre is a bust.
Beltre doesn’t have to repeat his 2004 season to be a very, very good player, and neither will Hamilton need to repeat his 2008 season to be one of the best per-dollar values in baseball.
And all things being equal, I’d rather build my team around an awesome young hitter at a premium defensive position than a pitcher.
Milendriel: I doubt you’ll find any pitchers in the top 5, let alone 1&2. I’d expect a top 5 of Utley, Grady, Wright, Reyes, and Pujols, in some order. A-Rod might be too old for a top 5, and I think Hamilton’s defense decreases his value.
No mention of Ryan Braun? I know he just signed a big long contract, but it’s actually not that huge, and his production is pretty astounding. He had a historic rookie campaign, and is keeping it up. For his production, 8 years at $45+ Million isn’t bad at all. Brew crew was smart to sign him early, and I don’t think it diminishes his trade value. If anything, trading for that production for 8 years at that price is a steal.
I think his defensive “value” wipes away a good bit of his hitting, at least for now. He could get better, I guess.
Wow, people really don’t seem to like Hamilton’s defense. I couldn’t find UZR or the like for him, but just anecdotally from watching a few games (in the interest of full disclosure, I’m a big Hamilton fan) it didn’t look bad enough to merit downgrading my opinion of him.
Edit: Found a Range Factor chart (which might not be the best system to use but it’s something I can find quickly) which puts him at a RF of 2.38 against an average of 2.65 for starters at the position; which isn’t great no but it is right next to Grady Sizemore’s 2.39 and Coco Crisp’s 2.42, and the “average” is a little misleading because it includes Carlos Gomez with a 3.33 and Ichiro at 2.98.
So I don’t know that his defense is bad enough to merit significantly devaluing his bat, even if his future might be at a corner outfield position.
I enjoyed the comment on Fangraphs stating that Wakefield deserved to be in the top 50. I almost laughed out loud. Think he’s a BoSox fan?
Hamilton was rated -37 per 150 games for UZR earlier this season. There’s also the matter of Jeff Clement’s “triple.”
Also: Tom Tango’s 2007 Fan Scouting Report has Hamilton at a position-neutral 68, good for 2nd highest on the 2007 Reds team after Brandon Phillips and right in the middle of the pack for CF.
How “bad” of an UZR number is that, Mike?
I don’t know a lot about that system since you can’t find the numbers very easily anymore.
Here’s the post for the UZR. It’s almost as bad as the worst in CF, the remains of Jim Edmonds. Keeping in mind it’s only a little more than a third of the season, and gives some really harsh numbers to guys who have good reputations (deserved or not) but who are aging – Edmonds, Kotsay, Andruw Jones. I wouldn’t say Hamilton is necessarily an absolute butcher, but I think he’s definitely below average.
Of course, even with not-so-great defense, he’s still an incredible hitter and would deserve to rank pretty high on Dave’s list.
Wow, that’s pretty bad.
I usually put a decent amount of faith in the fan scouting reports…I wonder if he’s regressed since last year? I’ll have to do some digging to try to find his UZR from last year.
Hamilton’s defense (or lack thereof) is rather surprising. It looks as if he moves fairly well out in the field.
Yeah, I guess I need to watch more games. I would’ve personally pegged him for about what the FSR has him at for last year; right around average overall, with questionable instincts and hands but a really good arm.
Where might Morrow fit on this list (if at all) were the Mariners to convert him to a starter over the balance of this year (either in Seattle or Tacoma)?
Mike Snow, why did you have to go and give us that link in #49? Naturally, I wnet through it and noted the Mariners on the lists – and I don’t mean tghe “Best” lists.
I knew that our LF and 1B were lousy, but to find out that we have easily the worst keystone combo in MLB by UZR, and the second worst team UZR this season, that’s more than ever a USSM reader can stomach.
You just love to kick a fan when he’s down, don’t you?
I found a UZR at the All-Star break last year that has Hamilton at -21 in center field. I didn’t see an end-of-year number off-hand, but Hamilton only played a month after the break last year anyway.
Sorry about the bad news on the Mariners defense, G-Man. I thought we’d gone over the highlights from that list a little bit already. UZR doesn’t much care for Ichiro in center either.
Jeff,
I’m also a huge Hamilton fan, but he’s stretched in center. So if his future is as a corner outfielder – albeit a pretty good one, as you mentioned – that’s how a potential trade partner will see him. And like Braun, moving down the defensive spectrum hurts his value, awesome bat or not.
I still don’t see him as a top 10. Probably in the teens, though, and all these great responses made me realize that my flip response that he shouldn’t make the list the more incorrect.
Felix is a lock for the list.
Morrow and Ichiro might make it.Whoops I just read Dave’s comment.As for who’s #1, it’s really obvious.
Bloomquist, duh!
Winner!
By the way, those of you who are following this series, up through #36 are posted on Fangraphs now.
Dave, if you’re watching this comment thread still:
I was surprised to see Volquez not end up higher on the list; is it mostly the questions about his command that keep him from being higher up?