Snark snark snark
When I’m not fielding complaints that I’m an Ichiro! fanboy (I am) I sometimes take time out to address complaints that I’m unreasonably attached to Adam Jones, just because I was a huge booster through his minor league career and all and didn’t start hating him when he got traded. Or something.
Anyway, yeah, so Adam Jones is hitting .250/.295/.357. That sure does suck.
That’s a better on-base percentage than four players in the M’s starting lineup tonight.
It’s a better slugging percentage than three (including two of those).
It’s a better OPS than our team’s catchers and our designated hitter.
It is only 13 points under the M’s team OBP and 28 points under the M’s team SLG.
And unlike the M’s, Jones plays defense.
So for those who would say that Jones sucks, I say that then the M’s must really suck, and maybe we ought to focus on fixing that rather than chuck stones at a prospect who used to play for the organization.
Game 59, Angels at Mariners
The Interview and his personal catcher v Saunders.
Thank Ichiro, a decent starter.
I don’t know what to write here, and I’ve been starting at the Write Post box for a while, so I’ll offer this — we all know that the Angels and Athletics series are important out of proportion to the rest of the season’s games, and if you’re like me, even in the horrible start of the season you’ve been nursing some hope that the team’s not this bad, that they’re making changes, however slight, that if they can win these games they can climb back into it, and last night’s game was particularly hard to watch for putting them down another game in the divisional race.
So here’s the thing: Bedard’s a good pitcher, and there are still great reasons to watch the Mariners. I’d watch this game even if the M’s had gone into the season looking at a 90-loss year. It’s likely to be some quality baseball, worth seeing. And if giving up on frustration and my attachment to seeing a competitive team in 2008 makes it easier for me to watch and enjoy the team play, maybe that’s a good thing.
Go Bedard.
Draft Stuff
The major league draft is just two days away, and so while I don’t have the same amount of sources in the organization that I used to, here’s some rumblings I’ve heard in the last couple of days about what the Mariners might do with the 20th pick in the first round.
Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS, Long Beach CA
Adam Jones, part two. Like Jones, Hicks has major league potential both as an OF and as a pitcher, but if the M’s draft him, it’s likely as a position player. He’s a classic five tool projectable 18-year-old with serious athleticism, and he’s probably not going to fall to #20, as a team with a pick in the #11 to #19 range will probably take a shot at his upside before the M’s get a chance to pick. But if he falls to their spot, there’s a good chance the M’s will be calling Hicks’ name.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Brookwood HS, Langley BC
The M’s scout Canada as well as anyone, and Lawrie is the offensive version of last year’s first round pick, Phillippe Aumont. Teams have primarily had to get a look at him in exhibition tours, and he opened a lot of eyes (including several M’s officials) down in the Dominican recently with his power display. He doesn’t really have a position, having played 2nd base, 3rd base, catcher, and the outfield at various times, and no one really knows where he’ll end up long term. Best guess is third base or left field, but either way, it’s the bat that teams would be drafting. There aren’t many better high school hitters in this draft.
Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury HS, Salisbury CT
If you love athletes, Hewitt is your guy in this draft. He’s built, he can run, and he can really turn on a fastball when he gets his bat on it. In terms of pure tools, he’s in the Hanley Ramirez/Alfonso Soriano category of players. If he develops, he could be a 30-30 shortstop. But, in terms of development, he’s a couple of years behind a normal first round pick, and he’s a long, long way from the major leagues. The gap between what he could be and what he is is Grand Canyon sized, and no one is sure he’s going to be able to hit professional pitching consistently. A ton of bust potential, but he might be a winning lottery ticket as well. Big risk, big reward.
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University
Last year, the M’s were focusing on selecting Casey Weathers, a power reliever from Vanderbilt, before Colorado popped him at #8 and Aumont fell to the M’s at #11. They still would like to add another power arm to the bullpen, and could use Cashner as the piece that would allow them to move Brandon Morrow back to the rotation. I’m still against the idea of using a first round pick on a relief pitcher, but the M’s aren’t, and Cashner’s definitely a possibility.
Necessary Records
Winning % needed by M’s to finish one game ahead of Los Angeles in a few different scenarios, and the Angels corresponding win% needed to finish with one less win than listed.
90 wins: .663 (69-35), .524 (54-49)
91 wins: .673 (70-34), .534 (55-48)
92 wins: .683 (71-33), .544 (56-47)
93 wins: .693 (72-32), .553 (57-46)
94 wins: .702 (73-31), .563 (58-45)
If you think the Angels play just over .500 ball the rest of the way, then the M’s only have to play about as well as the 1928 Yankees the rest of the way to beat LA by one game (assuming Oakland doesn’t win 91). If you think the Angels will play a little worse than they’ve played so far, but still be about what we expected them to be before the season, then the M’s need to play more like the 1927 Yankees.
Either way, the conclusion is obvious – trade for Babe Ruth.
Pick ’em
Pitching performances tonight:
Baek: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 2K, 0 HR
Washburn: 5.1 IP, 9H, 3 BB, 4K, 1 HR
Game 58, Angels at Mariners
Santana v Washburn.
Is there any stranger move than Cairo’s ascent to starting first baseman so far this year?
Any team in baseball, any position.
– There’s no injury involved
– Only a couple months ago, the team (and particularly the manager) expected Sexson to have a big bounceback year… which, relatively, he was
– Sexson is paid vastly more than Cairo, when generally teams favor the huge contract
– As of May 23rd, Sexson was hitting .200/.277/.413 while Cairo was hitting .171/.250/.200
– The last time Cairo hit as well as Sexson hit when benched was 2004, when he hit .292/.346/.417 while with the Yankees
– And he’s only hit that or better three times in 13 seasons
– Cairo’s career line of .266/.314/.357 is worse than what Sexson was hitting when benched
– Cairo plays pretty crappy defense too, and if the team can’t recognize that Ibanez is horrible out there, why would they suddenly realize Sexson sucked and turn on him?
– If the team wanted additional scrap, baserunning, and defense, there’s an internal option already much-beloved they could have gone with
– And if the problem’s the PR of having Sexson booed, see above
– Cairo’s not a prospect, or on a long-term deal that makes him worth developing
– Benching Sexson likely lowers his trade value (or his “release value”)
I follow baseball reasonably closely (um, yeah) and I can’t think of another decision like this on any other roster this year. Every day this goes on I’m more convinced the losing has only made the people who run the Mariners crazier. Pretty soon they’re going to go hole up together and have the ball boys read them increasingly made-up game reports.
“General Riggleman reports an absolute shutout against the hated A’s, sir.”
“Excellent! I order a brace of champagne shipped to them by autogyro!”
Update: so it appears that they’ve put Sexson back in the lineup, because it’s a new series. I have the same question I have every time they make a move like this — what does that have to do with anything? If Cairo was the right choice the last n games because he made the team better, why is that not true now? What can possibly be driving these decisions?
Reasons For Optimism
This season has sucked. The team has played badly and provided almost no entertainment value. Their playoff chances are gone, and at this point, there’s not much left to root for. Fans are angry, players are frustrated, and there’s only so many posts you can write about how poorly this team was constructed.
So, I’m throwing a curveball. Here are the reasons to believe that this team will play better the next four months than they did in the first two.
1. Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva have LOB% of 61.5% and 61.6% respectively. Those are the 4th and 5th lowest totals in the American League. Thankfully, LOB% isn’t very predictive, and there’s no reason to think that this is a true change in ability for either of these guys. Both guys have true talent strand rates of closer to 70%, and when their ability to leave runners on base regresses toward the mean, both guys will improve their ERAs quite a bit.
2. Adrian Beltre has a .239 batting average on balls in play despite a line drive percentage of 20.5%. His career BABIP is near .300, and considering how well he’s hitting the baseball, there’s no reason for the ball to continue to find fielders gloves at this rate. Beltre’s skillset makes it likely that his performance will improve as the year goes on.
3. The Mariners are hitting .228/.323/.390 as a team with runners in scoring position, 13th out of 14 AL teams. While the offense isn’t good, it’s better than that, and there’s no reason to believe this is a line-up of unclutch hitters who can’t perform well in scoring opportunities. That number should also improve as the year wears on.
4. Brandon Morrow.
The cloud is dark, but there are some silver linings. This isn’t the worst team in the AL, and they won’t continue to play this badly all year long.
Dave on KJR
Just a heads up – I’m going to be on the air with Ian Furness at 2:05 pm to talk Mariners baseball on KJR.
USSM/LL Announcement #2
We still have a few spots open for the USSM/LL event on Saturday, June 14th. If you are on the fence about coming, sign up. We’ve got a great set of Q&A’s setup for you guys, and you’ll kick yourself if you decided not to go when you hear about it afterward. Details below:
When: Saturday, June 14th, 1 pm to 5 pm
Where: Seattle Central Library on 4th St downtown.
What It Is: Four hours of baseball talk with Jeff Sullivan, Derek Zumsteg, Matthew Carruth, myself, and really cool special guests. You’ll love them.
How Much: $20 per person, registration limited to 100 attendees, includes light food.
If you’ve ever been to one of these before, you’ll know they’re a blast. We’ve had a great time at all of the past events, and I expect that this one will be no different. The Library has a great meeting room setup with theatre seating and AV equipment perfect for a Q&A session with the people we’ve invited (past guests include Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, Mariners scouting director Bob Fontaine, Rangers manager of pro scouting Josh Boyd, ESPN writer Jim Caple, Rainiers Broadcaster Mike Curto, and Aquasox Broadcaster Pat Dillon – you’re going to get cool people at the event, trust us). We’ll just spend the afternoon talking baseball and having a good time, and since the Library is conveniently located not far from Safeco Field, it’s an easy jaunt over to the park after the event is over if you want to watch the team play.
Food will be provided, but I’d suggest that you eat lunch before coming, honestly. We’ll have snacks and non-alcoholic drinks available for people to munch on during the event, but don’t skip a few meals in expectation of devouring free food for hours.
To register for the event, send an email to ussmarinerfeed@gmail.com with the number of people you’re reserving space for included in the subject line and their names included in the message of the email. Your reservation will not be confirmed until we’ve received your payment, which we will accept via paypal or by check. Detailed information on payment and where to meet will be sent to you after you sign up via email.
Seriously, it’s going to be a lot of fun, so come.
The value of the call-out
Okay, so we know that McLaren’s team meetings didn’t work, and Armstrong trashing the team (except for the GM and the manager) didn’t work, but Bavasi, once he went out and tore into the players in public, well:
Responded, as measured by hitting above league-average:
Betancourt, .450/.476/.650
Beltre .174/.208/.565
Did not respond, as measured by hitting below league-average:
Everyone else
Responded, as measured by pitching well:
Bedard (0 ERA!) Dickey (0 ERA!) Green (also 0 ERA!) Lowe (this is getting tiring!) Morrow, Rhodes, Rowland-Smith (all shutout pitching), Felix, even Batista (3.65 ERA!)
Did not respond, as measured by pitching badly:
Putz
Silva
So it looks like having the GM call the team out has some effect, but only suppressing run scoring on both offense and defense. Yayyyy! All hail the GM-call out!