I’ll fix you allright
DMZ · July 1, 2008 at 8:45 am · Filed Under Mariners
Sexson, up to May 26th: .200/.277/.413
Sexson, open-stanced since: .282/.384/.296
Or, if you’re into OPS, that’s .690 vs .680
So far at least, the open stance has traded power entirely for extra singles. Since creating Megavidro, how’s Vidro doing?
A delicious .195/.245/.276, down from .239/.284/.362.
Yeah, those veterans, you can always count on them to produce. Not like those damnable rookies, like Wlad, who got sent down hitting .196/.265/.346.
oooh oooh oooh! does that mean we’ll soon see MegaVidro dancing on his head, like MegaMoose?!!!
Megavidro, that’s awesome.
Can we get him to fight Mothra?
He’d eat Mothra…
I see “Megavidro” and flash back to my childhood. Ah yes, the after-school installments of Mighty Morphin’ Power Rangers. Certainly Megavidro will be crushed by Megazord.
But seriously though, everyone figured they’d be cut by now…and just because they just did well against some shitty competition, it doesn’t mean it isn’t time to rebuild…
When are they going to cut Sexson, Cairo, Vidro, Batista, etc.
I’d much rather watch us lose with AAA kids than with these chumps…
In all seriousness though, how do they not understand that having Sexson hit singles has almost no value, since he can’t run at all?
Eating people is Silva’s job.
Honestly, I’d rather see them make too few moves rather than too many right now.
Running is Ichiro’s job.
Jeff, come on…Silva was brought in to “eat innings” not giant moths…
A little from column A, a little from column B!
yes yes yes
In fairness to Sexson, if OBP is worth 1.5 – 2.1 times what SLG is worth (see, for example, here for the argument), then Sexson’s trade is at least an improvement. In terms of value to the team, it is akin to leaving the (terrible) OBP the same and adding between .024 and .088 of SLG. So it doesn’t make him a productive player, particularly at a position where it’s easy to get offense, but singles-machine Sexson is still better than no-singles-machine Sexson.
Perhaps the team thinks that once Sexson is more used to his open stance he will begin hitting for power again.
“See? We opened the stance, and his average went up. Now that he can see the ball again, he just needs to start trading a bit of average for a bit of power, and *boom* we’re right back in business!”
While the OBP > SLG argument might be true for the entire population of major league players, I can’t imagine it applies to people like Sexson who take about two days to get from base to base.
So far at least, the open stance has traded power entirely for extra singles. Since creating Megavidro, how’s Vidro doing?
A delicious .195/.245/.276, down from .239/.284/.362.
Yeah, those veterans, you can always count on them to produce. Not like those damnable rookies, like Wlad, who got sent down hitting .196/.265/.346.
To quote the late, great George Carlin “I’m just lookin’ for a little consistency here…a little consistency…”
It is amazing how many little bits of information this reason fit so remarkably well into the overall picture. The above stats are just another snapshot that, combined with many others, contribute to the overall picture of absolute ineptitude from top to bottom in the Mariners organization.
Other examples:
– Ichiro slides over to RF so Bloomquist can play center.
– Norton released and Wlad and Clement sent down, all while Vidro, Sexson and Cairo remain on the team.
– The club President yells at the Manager and the Manager yells at the players, each treating the other like 5 year olds, all in the same day.
– The future is mortgaged for a rent-a-starter, who is then demonized and lumped in by the FO with the team’s only other good players as the *problem* with the team.
Oh man… I could go on and on…
While the OBP > SLG argument might be true for the entire population of major league players, I can’t imagine it applies to people like Sexson who take about two days to get from base to base.
Sure, the 1.5-2.1 range in the Pankin article is for MLB as a whole, and the range for teams is wider (1.4 to 2.6), which suggests that the range for individual players would be wider still. But it could go all the way down to ~1.3 for Sexson and Sexson v.2.0 would still be a marginal improvement over original-recipe. Sexson would have to be the lead edge of a lot of double plays and fielder’s choices (and would have to turn a lot of XBHs into singles for runners behind him, though I don’t know how you’d quantify that) for his speed to make that much of a difference.
Yeah, what are the odds a rookie will ever get any better? If a guy doesn’t hit .300 his rookie year, he’s never going to amount to much…
On the other hand, you have Sexson and Vidro with these OPS+ trends over the last 6 years:
Sexson: 149, 126, 144, 117, 84, 86
Vidro: 121, 107, 104, 96, 109, 63
The M’s FO must have some business types who have heard of a thing called a “trend line.”
17: Which Sexson are you watching?
19: it hurts to watch either one, actually.
I think I’ve got it figured out.
Start with the clear premise that this season is lost, and select a strategy to work forward from that assumption. In keeping with Mariner tradition, though, if a particular strategy is advanced by Dave or Derek that strategy becomes prohibited.
So here’s the gambit. If the team keeps running the grizzled vets out there, there are two likely outcomes. The first, and most probable, outcome is that they continue to suck. The team record continues to sink and they are set up for the first pick in next years amateur draft. The second outcome – far less likely of course – is that one ore more of the Sexson, Vidro, Cairo, etc. group gets on a hit streak and picks up some value. The team might then be able to trade the player in a deadline deal and get a semi-useful spare part back (such as another Sean Green), which helps with the rebuilding effort.
Don’t you see the genius at work here?? It’s a strategy almost guaranteed to succeed!!!
sorry – forgot my sarcasm tags in my previous post (#21).
Since I haven’t seen Graham today:
STRAAAAAAAAAASBOUUUUUUUUUURGGGGGGGGG
My worry about dumping the chumps for the kids would be that the kids would come up, they’d improve the team, and we’d be out of the first pick…
No doubt about it — winning could send this team right into the toilet.
25-
Sad, but true…
Maybe there is hope. Clement started instead of Vidro at DH. They could give him enough of a chance to adjust to MLB pitching, adn figure out a way to make sure Turbo’s option does not vest.
I wonder what the M’s front office thinks of the Jones trade now? I’m guessing that since his OPS is below 700 in his first few months in the bigs, that they figure he’s a bust, and they made the right move. Not like a proven veteran with a sub 700 OPS.
#27 – In previous posts Dave has made it clear that Vidro’s option will not vest. There is no doubt on this point. It doesn’t matter if he plays all the rest of the games.
Regardless of Vidro’s option (which is really only a financial issue for the owners) it is a good sign that Clement is getting the DH at-bats. Vidro’s true cost at this point is the at-bats he is taking from possible future starters. There is only so much big-league at-bats to go around for these guys to learn with and Vidro/Sexson has taken far too much of those at-bats.
Think of it as an anlaogy to advanced medical triage. Vidro, Sexson and Cairo are beyond help and it is better to give the resources (at-bats) to somebody who might actually make it.
Yeah, except Jones’ .698 OPS would rank 5th on the team, ahead of proven vets Sexson, Vidro, and Johjima…
Instead of Megavidro fighting Mothra, couldn’t he just fight…Vidro? Fight for “who doesn’t get DFA’d.” Then, when Sexson wins, tell him it was a trick; they’re both getting DFA’d.
30: Yeah, just like when they used to have the Moose race MegaMoose! I’d actually pay to see that… –> Pay Per View?
At least then they’d have an excuse… besides “they suck” anyhow…
Also, AAA kids sometimes surprise you. As an example, I’d be curious how Prentice Redman or Victor Diaz would do if he were promoted.
Here’s how we can forward this information to the M’s FO in a way they can understand it. Notice how damnable is centered just so.
To be fair to Sexson, the high OBP IS, in fact, a huge improvement. Getting on base is by far the most important thing a hitter can do, much more so than slugging. It means not making an out, and if you don’t make outs the runs will come.
Sexson is still not a valuable player, but he’s much more valuable now than he was when he was making an out almost three-fourths of the time.
I’m not sure how anyone could think that a low power, low walk, minimal speed offense would be optimal in any circumstances. But this is a team that would have Vidro, battin third, bunt in a close game in the early innings.
Having made an almost identical point to Steve T upthread (and this is a short thread), I’ll just emphasize that the difference between his post and mine is that he thinks OBP is “much more” important than SLG (and therefore that new Sexson is “much more” valuable than before) and I understand that it’s probably 1.5-2.1 times as important, maybe a little less than that (and therefore that Sexson is a little more valuable now). DePo famously said in Moneyball that OBP was three times as valuable as SLG, but there doesn’t seem to be research supporting that.
Having thrown Steve T under the bus, I’ll also defend him — I don’t think he’s saying that low power, low walk, minimal speed is optimal. We can probably all agree that massive avg/massive walk/massive power/massive speed is optimal. He was just saying that decent OBP, low power, minimal speed is better than low OBP, mediocre power, minimal speed.
An honest question, not a troll: are there any good studies on the effect of speed on the relative value of OBP vs. SLG? It seems intuitive (at least to me) that poor speed would devalue OBP relative to slugging, but what’s not intuitive is how much.
I may have this messed up but Wille B has a .250 ave, OBP of .364, SLG of .250 in June (didn’t play end of May). Big Richie is becoming Little Willie fast (but more expensive). Add WB’s base running and dirty uniform, you’d be better off.
So you’re going to throw me under the bus, then try to get the driver to stop? Gee, thanks!
No, you’re right. I said he’s still not a good player. But that’s more than a hundred points of OBP, which means one more time out of ten without making an out. It’s those outs that are really killing us, not the extra bases.
I don’t think speed matters that much except for a handful of elite players. If your team doesn’t make outs, players are going to come around to score eventually even if they’re wearing deep-sea diver boots; whereas speed is meaningless if you can’t get on base and the guys behind you can’t get on either.
You can have an endless rally made up of all singles and walks (and they’re terrific fun to watch), but you can’t have a real rally made up of out-double-out-double-out.
KJR was on his case today. Twas sweet.
Anyone who thinks that this isn’t an improvement doesn’t understand the appropriate relative merits of OBP vs. SLG. I’m not saying Sexson is good, but a wOBA of .303 is bad while .336 is average. Sexson has gotten better.