The Beltre rumor
DMZ · July 9, 2008 at 10:41 am · Filed Under Mariners
Yes, ESPN’s got a “Twins talk to the M’s about Beltre” rumor up. The Twins picking up that kind of payroll, though… I don’t think this passes a sniff test.
To go back to the trade value post of a while back — Beltre’s a tough sell, generally.
Update: as Mike points out, that’s based on the Twins having internal discussions that mentioned him, making this possibly the thinnest rumor since the Rays briefly discussed Bonds and were batted about by the national press for weeks (fun side note: look how the Rays DHs have done since then).
Yeah, I don’t buy it.
The underlying source is a Minneapolis Star-Tribune report saying the Twins discussed Beltre internally, but specifically adding there’s no indication they actually talked to the Mariners about him. I could barely see the Twins doing a rental, but with his salary for next year as well, no way.
I think the person in the newsroom/outlet responsible for passing this stuff off as “rumor” should be kicked once in the balls for each click that the story generated…..
The Twins? Beltre? I highly doubt that. He doesn’t really fit what they’ve been trying to do.
I have heard that there’s an NL team that’s been looking at him, but that the M’s are currently against trading him unless they’re blown away by the offer.
Also, given that I’m fairly sure that team was the Brewers (though not 100% certain), I doubt anything will come of it.
Isn’t there a rumor floating around also that Beltre really wants to be back in SoCal when his contract ends? Not that it’s really here or there with the Twin situation becuase they’d only want him as a rental as Mike Snow mentioned, but I’d think that he’d be a much more attactive pickup for LAD/LAA/SDG for that reason.
There is a bit of a lost in translation effect going on as others have picked up the original story. The original source is a newspaper article stating:
So this statement is true even if the extent of the “internal discussions” was one scout bringing up Beltre’s name, the GM stating that the Twins could not afford Beltre unless the M’s covered part of his salary, and the scout or assistant GM with the closest relationship to the M’s front office saying that he has heard that picking up salary is a non-starter for the M’s.
I’ve been wanting to say something about it for a while…didn’t want to be off-topic…
They should NOT trade Beltre…he’s going to hit close to 30 home-runs and is the BEST defender at his position…
The only way they should trade him is if he has flat-out told them he won’t re-sign when his contract is up…
Dave or Derek,
I know that you and your readers (myself included) are huge fans of Beltre and disagree with the rest of the country that Beltre is a “bust.”
Considering the perception that he is a “bust”, and also considering the fact that he will probably leave via free-agency, what type of free-agent will he be? What types of pick(s) will we get if he leaves?
I’m apparently in the minority and think that Beltre would be a great fit for the Twins, and a big upgrade over Punto/Lamb. The Twins will undoubtably ask for some cash in the deal which should command a higher return for the Mariners.
Yeah, “talk”. As in, we said “OK, sure — we want Morneau and a pitcher”. Twins reply “Hey, is it hot out there, too?”. End of conversation.
Steve T,
I’m sure the conversation was more like:
Smith (Twins GM): So, do you guys think Buscher/Macri/Harris are the answer at 3B?
Front Office Stooges: Well, they’ve been playing really well, but if we could get a veteran with a little pop…
Terry Ryan (ex-GM, still an employee): What about Mike Lamb, I hear he’s available? *shakes head*
Smith: I hear Beltre is available out in Seattle. What do you guys think?
FOS: Yeah, and that stadium kills him, so he’d be a good pickup. And I know they are shopping him. He’d fit right into our lineup and he’s a great clubhouse guy.
Ryan: Have you seen his contract? We’d have to dump Cuddyer to keep the our payroll the same. And they’d want a pitcher and Reverre or Span also.
Smith: Oh.
The M’s, if they are smart, might be able to influence the division next year. Unless they get a premium on Beltre, he’s not going anywhere. Especially not to Minnesota.
Actually, it might’ve been nothing more than
“Man, it would be nice to have a good 3B in our system.”
“Good…”
“You know, great defense, swings the bat well. Like, say a Beltre or a Wright”
“Well, yeah, but unless Howie Clark finds some power we’re not finding that guy in our system any time soon.”
“Right, sure, but maybe we can find a pre-2004 Beltre in somebody else’s system that we could trade for.”
“Well, we’ll keep looking. Because we aren’t trading for a post-2004 Beltre, that’s for sure.”
And somewhere along the line a report of this conversation got turned, through a giant game of “Telephone” into what we see here.
Despite the “bust” perception Beltre will quite probably be a type A free agent.
Partly that’s because third base is grouped together with second and short in the Elias rankings and partly because he’s a lot better than a bust.
The rankings for 2006-2007 (the rankings are based off the previous two years and split by league) had Beltre 11th in that group of players with the top 14 qualifying as type A free agents and I’d expect him to sit right around the same level at the end of this year and next.
(FWIW, Betancourt was 19th and Lopez 25th in those same rankings – firmly into the type B category – but both, especially Betancourt are likely to head backwards.)
Compensation for a type A free agent is the first pick* that the signing team has in the next year’s draft and a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds.
Sandwich picks go in normal draft order for type A free agents first then for type Bs.
*Picks 1 through 15 are protected from beign compensation. Compensation picks cannot be lost as compensation. If multiple clubs are owed compensation for free agents then the club who had the free agent with the higher ranking gets the highest available pick and the next club taking the next available and so on.