Why Not Trading Ibanez Might Make Sense
As we head towards the trading deadline, the rumors will continue to push forward as the M’s take phone calls from contenders looking to improve themselves for the stretch run. The two free-agents-to-be (Ibanez and Rhodes) are the most likely to be moved, as most teams prefer the security of getting a name and a face in return for their walk year guys as opposed to the unknown potential draft picks that they would get if they leave as a free agent.
However, as I’ve noted in the past, it occasionally makes more sense to let a free agent leave during the winter than trading him at the deadline. For this to be the case, you basically need a case where you have a player who does things that the Elias Sports rankings consider highly valuable (plays a lot of games, racks up RBIs, gets Wins or Saves, posts low ERA) but, in general, isn’t all that helpful towards building a winning team. Because MLB teams have gotten smarter a lot faster than the free agent rankings system, there are often big disparities between what a team will offer in trade and how a team will be compensated if he leaves via free agency.
Ibanez is going to be one of these cases. He’s almost certainly going to be a Type A free agent at years end, thanks to the fact that he’s been in the line-up and racked up a lot of RBIs the last two years. The Elias Rankings love players like him. A Type A free agent, if offered arbitration and signing with another club, nets the team that lost him two high draft picks – a 16-30 first round pick (if the signing team finishes in the top half of MLB standings, otherwise, its a 1-15 second round pick) and a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.
Those picks are quite valuable, and forfeiting the right to them by trading Ibanez away can’t be ignored. That is the baseline for what you have to receive in trade in order to justify the move. Would someone be willing to give up the equivalent of two high draft picks for Ibanez?
Not if they understand baseball, because despite what the local media around here thinks, Raul Ibanez is a below average baseball player. His .278/.343/.452 mark while playing half his games in Safeco translates to about +9 runs offensively over a league average hitter so far this year. Considering that an average LF is +5 over an average hitter in a full season, Ibanez is about +4 or +5 runs compared to the average AL left fielder offensively this year.
His defense is, of course, horrible. There’s no denying this – he’s one of the very worst defensive players still being allowed to carry a glove. Every advanced defensive metric shows this to be true. His Fielding Bible +/- is -14 plays (or about -12 runs) so far this year. His UZR is -18. This follows exactly in line with what we’d expect, considering how bad he’s been with the glove the last few years.
Even if you want to take a conservative estimate of his defensive value so far this year, the best you can claim is that he’s been 10 runs below average. It’s almost certainly more than that, but if you want to play devil’s advocate, you could argue for a 10 run defensive penalty and not be totally crazy.
+5 with the bat, -10 with the glove… you do the math. Raul Ibanez is less valuable than the average left fielder, and every good organization in baseball knows it. They aren’t giving up premium prospects for a below average player who, over the course of two months, won’t even add half a win over a replacement level player to a contender’s ledger.
That’s the predicament the M’s find themselves in. Raul Ibanez isn’t very good, and the smart teams in baseball realize that, but the free agent compensation system is so out of touch with reality that the M’s will be highly rewarded for letting him walk this winter. For what Ibanez is, you should expect at most a B- prospect in return, except that you’ll be getting the chance at something much better by just letting him leave via free agency.
The only way the M’s will get a real haul for Raul is if a team decided to take advantage of the system, trade a couple of solid prospects to get him, and then let him walk at years end in order to receive the draft picks to restock the farm. Oakland and Milwaukee have both done this well the last few years, but neither of them will be in the market for an LF in ten days, so I wouldn’t hold my breath that anyone will follow their footsteps.
Comments
100 Responses to “Why Not Trading Ibanez Might Make Sense”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I think my date pick in the extension pool has long past.
OMG! I just realized that Willie Bloomquist will be a free agent next year!
If only we could get him … [sigh]
Oh, certainly the talent has a normal distribution. What i am asking is whether or not you get the same distribution if you look at the overall production, vs adding the offensive and defensive ones together to get the overall production. I don’t think you do. You’ll have the players in the same order relative to each other, but the bell curve itself might move left or right.
Now that I read this again, I don’t think I make sense. Alas.
You do – you just realize that a few MLB teams are really horrible at understanding how to evaluate defense, and are playing guys out of position to where their talent indicates they should be playing.
But the bell curve still works, even with offense+defense.
I will answer this quote, with a quote from Dave!
There’s no reason not to look at the very large pool of people in other organizations (who you can get very easily) that can provide better production at the DH spot than Ibanez can.
Yes, if you’re committed to having Ibanez on the roster, DH is probably the best place to put him, and he may be the best option for the position that we have in the organization right now; that doesn’t mean we should just stick him at DH and not try to get better production from the position.
So the Sox and Phils are going to bench their .920 OPSing and 1.000 OPSing left fielders for the defensive upgrade that Ibanez would provide?
It’s been said, but it bears repeating. Knowing this front office, and its infatuation with Ibanez, it would not surprise me at all to see them trade him for marginal prospects that they overvalue, then re-sign him in the offseason, losing the compensatory picks, and ending up a net loser over all.
Speaking of draft picks, there’s a pretty good reason to watch the US Olympic team this year… Strasburg!!!
55 – no, the point is that they could move those guys to different positions if they wanted. Or not.
The point is, as bad as Ibanez is, there are worse defensive LFs out there *right now*. And they’re playing for teams in a playoff chase, and play for GMs who’ve made questionable moves – in Philly’s case, within the week. The Sox are more set at 1b/DH than others, so maybe it doesn’t work. That situation changes, however, if Jermaine Dye’s out for more than a few days.
You mean we still have one yet? I thought the IOC snobs already kicked baseball and softball out of the Summer Games so they could give more time to such thrilling events as syncronized swimming and equestrian horse jumping.
Where does Burrell go?
Pfft Strasburg.
The US has excellent medal chances in several fencing events this year; THAT is the best reason to watch the Olympics.
>.>
Quentin is not worse than Ibanez. You’re putting way too much stock in RZR.
Looks like all the ‘pumping up’ of Washburn on this site is working. The Yankees are looking at him. Unfortunately, the rumor is that the Yankees want to dump Kei Igawa on us. So I wrote Kei an email warning him that if he was traded to the Mariners that Carlos Silva would probably eat him.
That should help.
You’re welcome.
Kei Igawa – $4 Million a year through 2011
Jarrod Washburn $10.35 Million in 2009
If the Yankees throw in their #10 prospect from the low minors, I’d consider that deal because Igawa is undervalued right now and Washburn is overvalued.
That is if the Mariners think they can salvage Igawa to some extent.
As far as replacement for Ibanez goes, how about Victor Diaz? He isn’t old yet, and he’s shown flashes of an ability to hit baseballs in the past at the major league level.
On Depodesta’s blog he talked about how offering arb to a player is a lot riskier than people think (or something like that), I understand that you have to be prepared for the possiblity of the player signing with you but what else is there?
RE: Joe C’s comment in #64: Kei Igawa cost the Yankees that posting fee, too, so in reality he cost the Yanks about the same as Washburn has cost the Mariners.
Kei Igawa has been considered to be a failure as a Yankee pitcher practically from the get-go, and has been sent down twice (I believe) to S-WB to “iron out” his problems. Basically, he’s a Triple-A pitcher. He shouldn’t even be in MLB. It’d be a kindness to send him back to Japan, were it not for the “face” factor.
Yeah, that sounds like the kind of guy the Mariners would trade for. They took pity on Horacio Ramirez for a time, too.
It just makes me gag a little to think that the rumor Buster Olney is spreading calls for Washburn AND MONEY to go to the Yanks, who really don’t need to fleece any other clubs out of money, and the Mariners get a third-rate failure of a pitcher and a second-rate…er, second-tier prospect (who’s probably already touted beyond his minor league talent, as most Yankee prospects are).
If the M’s had a history of salvaging pitchers it might be worth talking about Kei Igawa. But to that I say: Jeff Weaver.
equestrian horse jumping.
As opposed to… non-equestrian horse jumping?
I could go off on an Olympics rant here but I don’t want to be off-topic. I will just mention that by a decision in July ’05 both baseball and softball were “non-included” for the 2012 games, but remain in the 2008 games. There was a vote to substitute two other sports, but none received the 2/3rds majority needed to become “Olympic sports.” Since Softball and Baseball remain “Olympic sports” albeit non-included ones (like Polo), they could come back in 2016 or beyond.
The Mariners do have a history of having their pitchers salvaged by Dave Duncan if that counts.
But I think the Mariners should buy low rather than high on a guy like Igawa. I think the deals they’ve given over the past couple years to Jeff Weaver, Jose Guillen and Brad Wilkerson were all good ideas. Low risk (one-year deals) and potential rewards. With Igawa, if he were able to magically turn it around, that contract is at least reasonable, but I’m not sending any cash to the Yankees in such a deal.
equestrian horse jumping
no more tautological than saying horse-back riding, which is pretty common hereabouts.
I’d love to see someone try horse-belly riding.
Well, 12 years after they ripped Tino and Nellie off Woody for Deputy Dawg Davis and Six-Inning Sterling, I think the M’s are probably overdue to call that marker in on the Yanks by graciously donating them the services of some of their “gritty, seasoned” veterans.
I agree with the premise of the article, assuming that the new GM is actually someone competent at the draft. If the job stays with Pelokoudas, what’s the point? We’d blow the draft picks, or trade them for the second coming of Erik Bedard.
If you tried to ride on any other part of the horse than the back, it would probably be pretty upset…
I certainly hope they do. It’d be a
shameno, actually, travesty if they wound up having the games in Chicago without baseball and softball as medal sports.He isn’t getting any younger or better than he is now. He is having some luck this year against LHP, but thats’ all it is. His numbers the last couple years suggest the lurking specter of Regression to the Mean! Some guys can’t mentally transition to DHing and their hitting suffers. He may well be such a guy.
Those of you that rightfully complain about his defense in LF really don’t want to see him at 1B…think Piazza with worse hands. A poor first baseman weakens the whole infield. Don’t bring him back.
If we can get real value from some desperate contender, by all means unload him. If not, let him walk and collect those draft picks.
DH and 1B are the two easiest positions (by far) to find serviceable bats at reasonable cost.
We must also accept the grim reality of being saddled with Kenji’s apparently rotting corpse for three more years. What the hell are we going to with him? If he caught less, perhaps his fresher body would hit more. We best figure something out, and keeping Rauuuuuuul just compounds the roster problems.
Does the team that signs a FA still give up draft picks? I thought MLB changed it a few years ago so that the team losing the FA got extra picks, but the team signing him still retained all of theirs. Or am I confused?
BTW, Ken Rosenthal thinks it’s likely we may see more of our old friend George Sherrill in the near future. Unfortunately it would be wearing the red jersey of the Los Anaheim Rally Monkeys of Angleland.
I though Raul had decent hands. He never really misplays a ball that he gets to. It’s the “getting to” part that he has so much trouble with.
I’m absolutely positive that, unless they hire a smart GM beforehand, which I don’t think they will do, the M’s will resign Ibanez to a multi-year deal to play LF and only LF. I think Armstrong, Lincoln, and Pelekoudas all firmly believe that Raul is an outstanding LF on both offense and defense and a cornerstone of the team. There will be no trade and there will be no draft picks.
Oooh, I just love Rosenthal’s Angel-Wagon rosterbation (rolleyes)!
Too bad most of their “fans” would never get to see GS pitch, since he won’t be in the game ’til the 7th or 8th inning most of the time — after most of Barbies and Kens have already started heading back toward the beach to throw some tri-tips on the grill.
Under the new CBA, teams that lose a Type A free agent (Top 20% at their position per Elias rankings) still receive the signing team’s 1st round pick (if picking No. 16 or lower in the 1st round) or its 2nd round pick (if picking No. 15 or higher in the 1st round), plus a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Teams that lose a Type B free agent (ranked between 21% to 40%) only receive the supplemental pick.
Teams that lose a free agent who fails to qualify as a Type A or B receive no compensation. (Under the old rules, there were Type C free agents who brought back a lower round supplemental pick.)
Grizz, muy bien! The smart teams must absolutely love Elias and the Mariners for valuing the same things, which gives them so much opportunity to pillage and plunder.
Anyone got a best recent example of a team letting a Type A player who is obviously not that good go sign a big FA contract with a dumb team, then taking the picks and laughing while the FA tanks with his new team?
Not Silva, right, because wasn’t Silva neither A nor B? I seem to remember the Twins not getting any compensatory pick when he signed with us, yet we still managed to give $12/yr to a guy who gave up over a run per K recorded in his first four years as a starter. Hot damn, the Mariners are actually much worse than Elias in that example.
Show jumping, btw.
“Equestrian” in this case is its category, not a description, and implies jumping with a very specific set of rules & regs.
–Pedants-R-Us
Some of you clearly need to widen your education to include trick riding of both the western and eastern (or pseudo-eastern) varieties.
It’d be a shame no, actually, travesty if they wound up having the games in Chicago without baseball and softball as medal sports.
It’d be travesty if they wound up having the games in Chicago, period. Or any other American city. Let the cities in other countries spend stupid amounts of money in pathetic attempts to look “world class.”
Meanwhile, back to Ibanez: how much rope do we think Lee P. has? Can he really trade a fan favorite if the deal looks rich enough? Or will ownership worry about the last straw that leaves even the most die-hard fan with no reason left to come out to the park?
I don’t disagree on that…and of course, Chicago hasn’t won the bid yet, either. The only thing I’m saying is, if you’re actually going to have the Summer Games in the U.S. these days, it only seems right to bring baseball and softball back in given: (a) their growing popularity on an international scale; & (b) the fact that they were invented here in the first place — with all due respect, of course, to the numerous nations around the world now playing them competitively/professionally.
Yeah, I agree, if they have the games in the US those sports should be included. Of course, it adds ~300 extra athletes plus associated personnel, which will add something like $50 Million to the security cost for the games (based on the Athens numbers… we may never know what the Beijing security costs are, since having them in a police state gives you some security for free, and the total economic cost of shutting down a large chunk of Beijing for several weeks is hard to measure).
However, a trade may bring in more MLB ready prospects. The question becomes, do you think we can contend next year? With the right moves/payroll I think we can. Therefore trading him becomes important.
Also removing Ibanez from the organization gives them a chance to play Wlad everyday. So we can get MLB ready prospects, plus give Wlad some consistent playing time or let him walk as a FA. I think the benefits of trading outweigh the benefits of waiting.
How is it possible for 14 plays to be worth 12 runs?
Also, how is it possible for any leftfielder to be -18 runs defensively?
Don’t these new metrics dramatically overstate the value of defense especially when they suggest that defense is worth more than a player’s offense?
Basically, UZR suggests that Raul is a replacement level player despite him being almost .04 OPS better than league average for a LFer.
This was about my only real concern. I’m not sure why, but somehow I’ve got it in my head that Raul might actually accept arbitration to stay with the Mariners. Why? Well who the hell knows. I’ve seen weirder and stupider things happen in this business.
No.
86- Well, you have to remember that missed plays in the outfield tend to go for extra bases. It’s quite believable for 14 plays to amount to 12 runs.
How is it possible for 14 plays to be worth 12 runs?
An out is worth about -0.3 runs, a single is worth about .5 runs, a double is worth about .8 runs, and a triple is worth about 1.05 runs. Turning a flyball that should be an out into a hit yields a run value equal to loss of the out plus the distribution of the probability of the hit types.
Also, how is it possible for any leftfielder to be -18 runs defensively?
Defense matters.
Don’t these new metrics dramatically overstate the value of defense especially when they suggest that defense is worth more than a player’s offense?
Well, they don’t do that, so no.
Basically, UZR suggests that Raul is a replacement level player despite him being almost .04 OPS better than league average for a LFer.
Yep. Ibanez is closer to replacement level than he is to being good. His offense is just okay and his defense is disastrous.
By being really, really, really bad?
I don’t have any trouble with waiting for draft picks or taking the right deal for Raul but I still have trouble with the Ibanez sucks part of the argument.
Why is RZR a poor tool and UZR a good tool. Yes, I know Raul needs to leave LF in Safeco.
What am I supposed to make of Raul’s ‘win shares’ and ‘win shares above bench’ which seem to indicate he is better than a Crawford, Granderson, Anderson, Ordonez, etc. His good WS total comes despite having his defense contribute less than any other outfielder – this tells me I should want to keep his bat.
Is a (lefthanded) OPS+ of 116 really that easy to come by in a DH? It seems comparable or better than the OPS+ of most of the DH’s the rest of the league is trotting out there (non Bradley/Thome division) -Floyd, Kubel, Stairs, Sheffield, Huff, etc. Also his salary seems kind of reasonable compared to most in this group.
If teams were behaving logically/sabremetrically, major league talent should not follow a bell curve!
Baseball talent should follow a bell curve, and the teams should apply a cutoff to the talent they have, taking all the players above that cutoff point in the majors and everyone below in the minors (or out of baseball). Then major league talent distribution would look something like the top end of the bell curve with a sudden cutoff well before one reached the middle part of the curve.
There would be some exceptions to this: teams can’t, of course, substitute a catcher for a pitcher, etc., there are some restrictions on the flow of talent between teams, and there may be some sense in bringing up a young player for experience before he reaches that cutoff. Still, if the major league distribution truly is a bell curve it means there’s still lots of space for a savvy GM to improve a team on the cheap.
Why is RZR a poor tool and UZR a good tool.
RZR uses estimates of batted ball types, not play-by-play data. It’s like using frozen ground beef instead of a fresh patty. Why is your favorite restaurant better than Wendy’s? Better ingredients, even if they both sell hamburgers.
What am I supposed to make of Raul’s ‘win shares’ and ‘win shares above bench’…
Nothing – don’t use win shares.
Is a (lefthanded) OPS+ of 116 really that easy to come by in a DH?
Yes. DH is the easiest position on earth to fill.
Also his salary seems kind of reasonable compared to most in this group.
It won’t seem reasonable once he signs his new deal.
Still, if the major league distribution truly is a bell curve it means there’s still lots of space for a savvy GM to improve a team on the cheap.
Yea, it’s not exactly a bell curve – it’s more of a pyramid, with a huge base that narrows as you get to the top. But for the purposes of answering the question asked in the thread, the bell curve answer is close enough to being true.
Grizz, thanks for the CBA clarification.
Dave, if you’re ever stuck looking for a topic to write about (either here or at Fangraphs), a walkthrough of modern methods to evaluate defense would be fantastic.
You mean something like this?
Cunningly concealed under the “Stuff we reference all the time” title.
See, that’s what’s so great about this site. You guys anticipate everything.
Jeez, my eyes must really be going.
But Wendy’s uses never frozen fresh beef patties! =O!
Although Wendy’s, by far, still has the best fries of any big burger chain, IMO.