I think most of the problem stems from your use of results-based analysis.

Ichiro’s underlying figures are as good or better than last season’s with a small decrease in non-repeatable skill areas, such as BABIP and IFH%.

There is absolutely no reason to think that Ichiro is in any sort of decline. He’s simply not getting the same results from the same skills. (see Beltre, Adrian)

There is no aberration, no slump in his hitting. He is simply more susceptible to large swings in his results as a high singles hitter.

Lopez does appear to have improved, cutting his K% and increasing his LD% and whilst his BABIP is a touch above his career figure that’s probably made up for in his unusually low HR/FB and IFH%.

Assuming what he’s done over the past 100 games represents a true shift in his talent level then his offensive ability has improved but still several levels below Ichiro’s.

Once you factor defense – even with the defensive spectrum adjustment favouring Lopez (with Ichiro in RF) – it’s not that close.

Lopez can be a useful player if he improves his fielding but there’s not really any reasonable comparison between him and Ichiro that can be made.

Here are a few questions for you:

- How much money would Ichiro have to be making before you would consider him a less valuable piece of the roster (baseball-wise) than Lopez?

- How long would Ichiro have to hit in the .300 to .310 range with his usual walk rate and power before you would consider it to be his typical performance as opposed to an aberration?

- Do you expect Lopez to have a better 2009 than 2008?

You’re also ignoring the difference in their ages, which has a huge effect on what we can expect from the two players over the next three seasons.

My “for the season” is not an aside, or a paranthetical, it’s a very clear qualifier for the first part of the sentence. OF COURSE Ichiro has been far better over the last 8 years. Everyone knows that, everyone takes that for granted.

That’s not the debate. We’re talking about what is to be expected moving forward. I really haven’t seen a clear reason to expect Ichiro to be better offensively than Lopez next year. 34-year-olds tend to get worse, and 24-year-olds tend to get better.

I suppose we shall have to wait and see.

So far I come off as a provocative prick (guilty) and you come off as arrogant prick.

My guess that you didn’t seem to know what you were talking about was based on two things in your post:
1. That Ichiro and Lopez were “effectively equal offensively”. You added, “for the season”, which makes it technically true, but the thrust of your comment seemed either misleading, or mistaken.
2. You say the consensus is that Lopez is “below average” defensively, which is glossing over it some. The most recent evidence I’ve seen here cited on this blog suggests that Lopez may be the worst second baseman in baseball. Again, the thrust of your post seems misleading or mistaken.

Yes, Ichiro is paid scads of money, and is being poorly utilized in RF rather than in CF, and he is having a poor season. But Lopez, who is not paid nearly as much, is having yet another poor offensive season, and with his defensive decline he is hurting the team much more than Ichiro.

I don’t think that’s arguable.

However, the amount of criticism aimed at these guys is de facto related to how many runs they are giving up on the field. It’s not exclusively related, but just reread the threads from this season – Silva was given a pass by most commenters as long as he was “pitching well”. Not from absolutely everybody, but when his ERA was under-4 he wasn’t receiving the criticism he is now.

Anyway, I’ll try to remember to look at the stats on July 26, 2009 and we can compare Ichiro and Lopez then.

the USSM community would have screaming for his release anyway?

The USSM community has been screaming for his release since he was acquired.

I checked, my first Bill James is from 83. I got the 81 book afterwards, but I started reading him in 83. My bad.