Jarrod Washburn’s success is sustainable and he should command a high price
It’s the splitter! What better way to increase a pitcher’s value than spread the word that they’ve learned a new pitch? What’s more –there’s a kernel of truth in it. From this July 2nd story:
Washburn is throwing a split-fingered fastball again. He does it about 6 to 8 times per game, when he really needs it. Tonight, he used it to strike out Rod Barajas on a 2-2 pitch with the bases loaded and two out in the fifth inning.Called it the best splitter he’s ever thrown. Came in at about 86 mph.
All we need to do is clean that up a little. Sayyyyy:
JJ had a lot of spare time while he was injured, and you know how Jarrod’s constantly looking to improve his game. Well, when Washburn was being shelled in May, he decided to take the splitter seriously and that’s why we’ve seen him get such great results even when batters are still making contact. He’s mixing it in well with his other breaking stuff and because he’s less familiar with it, he’s only using it when he’s ahead in the count. And that works well, because when it drops down out of the zone hitters may still swing and miss trying to protect.
Whoever picks him up gets this new, splitter-throwing Washburn, who is really an entirely different pitcher than the one we saw earlier in the season.
There’s our story. Doesn’t that sound like a pitcher contending teams should trade for? Striving for improvement, learning from teammates, using his tools effectively… that’s worth a blue chip prospect or two.
Here’s the great part about this: there’s no easy refutation of this. You’d have to back through a ton of film to try and distinguish the break on different pitches to make any kind of conclusions about how often he’s throwing it if he’s throwing it at all and how effective it’s been. and really, who’s going to put that kind of effort into this? Heck, it worked for Silva — how much of that $48m came from people biting on the “he’s learned a splitter” story? And then later on, everyone can point to the other reports as the source.
So go forth everyone — spread the news anywhere you can about Jarrod’s success being due to the splitter he learned from Putz. Post on forums, send emails to NY writers. Call into KJR. Do what you have to do. We’ve seen this tactic work before, and it’s up to us to replicate its success.
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I don’t know how savvy the average Boston fan is, but – Gagne aside – Theo is way too smart to get fooled on a deal like this.
OK, that was funny.
That’s not something the Yankees can afford to do in the tightest three-way playoff race that division has seen in years.
One more start by Sir Sidney or Rasner almost guarantees that the Yankees will be watching October baseball on their luxurious home theater setups.
It’s also not likely that either Hughes or Wang are going to be 100% when they first come back; with zero margin for error, the Yankees don’t have the luxury of fooling around in the way that you describe.
Is Washburn great? No, but he’s significantly better than the other options. He’s most certainly not our “garbage”.
If you want our garbage, we’ll send you Vidro.
How many wins better are you claiming that Washburn is over Ponson or Rasner over the remaining season when you make this statement?
so, Posada is out for the year; do they stick with Molina & Moeller?
I wonder if Washburn’s agent might get involved…
You know, Scott Boras can talk nearly any team into nearly anything about nearly anybody. If he’s anywhere behind the scenes and anyone’s listening to him, this deal will get done sooner than later.
The Mariners should involve him in the negotiations as some kind of broker, if that’s at all kosher according to MLB rules. He’d likely do a better job than anyone in the M’s front office, IMO.
In fact, maybe they ought to offer HIM the GM position… 😀
My answer is “not many, but enough”.
I’m not sure I did this right, still getting the hang of WAR, but here’s what I came up with:
Washburn 1.57
Ponson 1.00
Rasner 0.69
(in particular, Ponson being a win above replacement seems optimistic to me)
So Washburn is about a half a win better than Ponson, and about a full win better than Rasner.
Really though, I’m a sucky analyst so take that with a grain of salt; still, the Yankees are in a pretty unique situation.
Can you imagine how badly they’ll get torn apart in the media if the last game in Yankee Stadium isn’t a playoff game?
I just don’t think they can afford to take the chance of letting Ponson stink up another game, or expecting injured players to come back at 100% right out of the gate. Boston and Tampa are just too good.
To be fair, I second you there, Jeff. Levity aside, if I were a GM of a team on the playoff cusp and had to choose between either Washburn or Sir Sidney at this point in his career for a 4/5 starter, I think I’d probably be taking a look at Wash, too.