So, let’s say there’s a 20% chance that Carlos Triunfel turns into CARLOS TRIUNFEL, a .300/.350/.500 second baseman. If you figure that having that guy under contract for six years at below market rates is worth (and I’m making this figure up) $70 million compared to what he’d cost on the free market, than Triunfel’s value is 20% of $70 million, or $14 million.

Now, this is obviously a ridiculously overstated example, because I’m only presenting two possibilities (he’s awesome or he has no value at all) and ignoring everything in between, while in actuality, there are many more shades of gray. But the process is the same – you figure out what the aggregate value opportunity of a prospect is, then divide the risks, and you get a net present value.

There’s certainly a point where it could swing too far in favor of prospects. We’re not there, though.

Thanks for the reply…it’s a question I’ve been wrestling with. I disagree with your assertion though. Whilst prospects and players with limited service time are definitely undervalued (at least by Bavasi and his ilk), I do think there comes a point when the value of trading for a guy like Teixeira does outweigh the costs in prospects. Part of the equation is really hard to figure because for every Colon or Slocumb trade, there are many, many other trades of much hyped 21 year olds who really have a good chance of turning 30 rather than turning into even bench players. And while this is obvious, what value can be placed on Triunfel or Balentien or Aumont, dollar wise?

It seems to me that if the pendulum is swinging in the direction of favoring prospects, then there should be a point where prospects are in fact overvalued, almost by definition. Where that point is or how to calculate it, I have no idea.

Out of the current 25 man roster 14 are home grown, and 10 of those are 26 or younger. They’re also going to have at least 3, with possibly as many as 7, of the first 75 picks or so in the next draft. So I they could potentially rebuild the system rather quickly.

Not that you should believe everything you hear from Rosenthal…

nope. or, rather, yup.

“Mark Teixeira on the block, and the collective response from MLB was to yawn.”

and Olney points out on ESPN that the Angels weren’t really looking to get into the Tex sweepstakes until the Braves price dropped dramatically when they realized not many teams were interested….

Two teams that inquired about Mariners reliever J.J. Putz were told that he would not be traded. But others say that Putz indeed is available, along with every player on the M’s roster except for right fielder Ichiro Suzuki, right-hander Felix Hernandez, catcher Kenji Johjima and reliever Brandon Morrow.

Granted that quote is pretty convoluted, but Kenji is “not available”?

(And you should probably just ignore walkie83, just as you would any other troll with an agenda)