The Manny Deal
In case you’re curious, I’ve written up my take on the rumored Manny Ramirez deal over at fangraphs. The long and short of it – the Marlins are making an unbelievably horrible deal. This is worse than the Bedard trade. This is the worst deal any team has made since the Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee/Brandon Phillips/Grady Sizemore debacle. Okay, I take that back – the Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano deal was worse. But this is up there.
The Marlins are reportedly giving up three years of Jeremy Hermida, solid pitching prospect Ryan Tucker, and one or two more minor leaguers in exchange for Manny Ramirez. The problem, though, is that Manny Ramirez isn’t appreciably better than Jeremy Hermida. He’s a great hitter, but a horrible fielder, and Hermida’s a pretty decent player in his own right.
At absolute best, this move will add a couple of runs to the Marlins ledger over the rest of the season, and that won’t be enough for them to leap over the Phillies and Mets. Manny’s going to leave at years end, and they’re going to have given Hermida and some good young talent away for nothing.
If Theo Epstein can really turn Manny and some cash into Jason Bay, he should go right into the hall of fame. The deal makes sense for Pittsburgh, too, with the Marlins just taking it in the shorts.
Hopefully someone in Miami wakes up and realizes that they’re about to make a franchise crippling move, because this deal is awful from their perspective.
While it’s no surprise that Theo Epstein has the stones and the brains to make this deal, I’d expect more from Beinfest. LB has been tremendous in selling off his assets in exchange for longer term control of good young talent. I don’t know if it’s the promise of more money to spend or the actual resigning of Hanley (usually they’d just dump a guy like him in 2 years for more prospects), but Beinfest is on the wrong end of the sheep shearing.
Plus, it blocks Bay from going to Tampa.
Worse than the Bedard trade? I don’t believe it.
Did anyone else see this? No truth but funny speculation
It won’t necessarily be for nothing, as the Marlins will get two comp picks. I read somewhere that Manny would have to agree to decline arbitration from the Marlins as part of the deal.
But that still doesn’t make the deal worth it…
Yeah that would be a sight to see… Manny for Beltre and Morrow.
Mortgage the future just a little bit further for a player who can’t help you by the time this team has rebuilt. Perfect. Then let’s trade Felix for Livan Hernandez and Mike Redmond.
Luckily Bavasi is gone, he might consider it.
How about Raul Ibanez to Boston instead of Jason Bay ?
Dave–
You’ve written a several nice trade analysis pieces recently and in them you always include a player’s defensive value, presumably measured in outs with an outs-to-runs model applied.
Could you say more, or give us a good link, on some of this stuff?
Also, aren’t there two significant problems in for assessment of defense:
(1) The relevance of a player’s defense depends on the number of balls in play to his position, which will be affected by the pitcher’s rate of balls in play and also his GB rate.
(2) There’s no straight forward out-to-runs model, since miffed plays on the infield are usually just singles while when the out field drops the ball (pun!) extra base hits become a factor.
Go check out how the Fielding Bible numbers are calculated, I think you’ll find your questions answered.
4- They should change “wild” in the title to “moronic.” I wouldn’t do Beltre/Morrow for Ramirez if Boston picked up both of Ramirez’ options AND paid his entire salary.
Here’s two links that explain how UZR works: Part One and Part Two. The Fielding Bible +/- system is very similar, but uses a different data source (BIS instead of Stats Inc).
The distribution and run value issues are accounted for, as are park factors and numerous other adjustments.
Wow. Just a couple of days ago, I’d said there was zero chance the Red Sox would trade Manny; they’ve done this dance with him during and in-between seasons for a while now, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if this deal gets more complicated before falling through, as one of those “Yeah, Manny, we still can’t trade you” gambits, like when he was put on waivers during an off-season.
The Sox are trying to win this year, and their post-ASB run has been pitiful- but after those NY and LAA drubbings at Fenway, they’re still only 3 back of Tampa Bay and 1 ahead of Minnesota in leading the WC. Trading Manny makes no sense unless you can replace those runs somehow. The Sox have been well below their Pythagorean so I’d expect a bounce of luck- and most of August is spent against teams that aren’t over .500. But Bay and Grabow for Ramirez, straight up (well, with prospects swapping hands, and the Sox paying Ramirez’ $7M remaining salary) is possibly a net benefit for the Sox this year and for the next few years.
I’m with Dave: I’d be surprised if this deal goes through as we’re currently hearing it, and it will probably fall through on prospects- Theo won’t give up meaty prospects in addition to paying Ramirez’ salary this year while he’s on the Marlins. But if it does go through, that’s just another feather in Theo Epstein’s cap; it’d be one lopsided deal where Pittsburgh and Florida end up holding the bag. It’d be like Theo Epstein built a baseball locks and sent a three teams’ worth of boats through.
Dude! Second-guess it on Friday, will you? I want to move Manny before the Fish change their minds!
Hmm..wasn’t it Dave Samson, President of the Florida Marlins, that criticized the Ichiro extension publicly? This is the same guy that may trade away significant future building blocks for 2 months of Manny, which project to be roughly a +10 Run improvement for the rest of the year..which by the way would not help them past 3rd place in the NL East.
Brilliant.
Don’t the Marlins need, like, some pitching or something if they hope to leapfrog New York and Philly? I was under the impression that their offense is the least of their worries.
What’s most disgusting about this deal isn’t even the on-field ramifications for Florida, but their laser-like focus on paring payroll whenever and however possible. That the Red Sox will be paying the balance of Manny’s salary, while helping the Marlins free themselves of Hermida’s inevitable rise in salary, is just awful.
They have to be the only franchise willing to be complicit in such a ridiculous scheme.
Manny would really be Manny in South Beach
The Red Sox are already paying a big chunk of Loria’s profits (along with the other teams, and especially the luxury-tax Yankees). Keeping payroll below the revenue sharing payments is how he does his business. I’m not sure why the owners put up with it, but I’m sure he’s told them it will stop after the Marlins get their sweet, two-thirds-taxpyaer-paid stadium. Which of course didn’t get arranged until six years after he acquired the team, and it just so happens the loan MLB gave him to buy the Marlins (in exchange for the Expos team he ran into the ground) expired if he didn’t get a stadium deal in five years. Though they’re still trying to make him pay 40%, and he’s fighting that too.
Loria is an evil genius. Dave Samson is just his Igor.
Loria is a bad, bad man.
Well, yeah, that’s true…though, unfortunately, it comes down to who’s still signing his paycheck.
From this point forward, he shall be dubbed Loria The Destroyer!
Well from all accounts the deal is rapidly falling apart and won’t happen.
So I guess it’s a moot point now.
That it was on the table at all is what’s nuts. Even with the Sox paying the freight on Manny they should expect to get almost nothing back, much less an actual, legitimate player. As Dave said, he’s not even an on-field upgrade. It’s such a blatant payroll-slashing move. Shameful.