Catcher ERA is a USELESS tool in comparing catching skills. It’s based a) on ERA, which has problems because it mixes team defensive ability + pitcher ability (plz see sidebar link on “Evaluating Defense”, kthxbye), and b) doesn’t show up as a repeatable skill for catchers (meaning that low CERA one year doesn’t repeat any more often in subsequent years than random chance would dictate).

Clement’s ability as a C right now is actually pretty easy to figure out. Clement has thrown out 8 of 50 stealing attempts so far this year between his time in AAA and MLB- an 84% success rate against. Tim Raines, one of the best base stealers of all time, had an 85% success rate. Rickey Henderson’s lifetime success rate was 81%. If the average AAA and MLB lineup is getting HOF-caliber success rates off of your C, he’s a defensive liability. Now, his AAA rates in 2007 were better, but “7th in the PCL” does not suggest that he’s particularly GOOD, especially since mid-level in AAA probably means not-so-good in MLB.

“spent the [2007] season with AAA Tacoma, appearing in 74 games at catcher and 51 at DH…threw out 27% of baserunners (54 SB, 74 ATT), 7th among all catchers in the PCL with at least 72 games…had .994 fielding percentage (3 E, 516 TC)…”

His 2005 and 2006 highlights don’t mention his defense at all.

That said, a 27% throwout rate on 74 attempts in 74 games — is that right? I have 74 games, but I can’t verify the attempts — at AAA is not good. That means they’re running on him a lot, and doing pretty well at it, at a level of ball where, if he’s promising, he ought to be doing well. Instead, it seems that AAA teams are confident they can run off him.

Where does “his minor league record and observation tell us he’s struggling to learn very slowly to be a catcher?” In looking at the numbers, Clement has fewer Passed Balls per Game and a higher fielding percentage (.991 in the minors and .994 in the majors compared to .987 in the minors)* than Johnson. Johnson has a higher throw out rate this year – 25 of 69 for 36% – compared to Clement’s combined 2008 line of 8 for 44 (2-17 in the majors and 6-27 in Tacoma. I couldn’t do math in my post above) for 18%. If the team leaves him at a Catcher, it’s isn’t based on hope, it’s based on the fact that they think he can be at least an average MLB catcher with a well above average bat. That would result in a player who can add wins to the team every year.

I’m not sure how much above average his bat will be at DH or 1B. A good team would try to leave him at the most difficult defensive position he can handle and it’s not statistically clear to me that he can’t handle catching as well as Joh/Johnson or anyone else the M’s have in their system.

Dave/Scraps/all – where are you finding other data that shows that Clement is a below average catcher? In looking through Clement’s MiLB profile, he had a 27% throw out rate in 2007 on 74 attempts. Beyond that I can’t find much else without digging through game logs. There must be some place to find data backing up the assertion that Clement is a poor defensive catcher.

* Fielding percentage in this case is not anti-knowledge, it’s one of the few empirical metrics we have for him in the minors. I would argue that it’s also very useful when comparing him to Rob Johnson as they have – by and large – played for the same team at the same time throughout their careers so they should have similar team/park/official scorer biases paying into their numbers. The only thing it doesn’t control for is if they caught specific pitchers (with Clement getting the “easier” assignments), but I’m willing to live with that for the time being.

I’m not even close to being ready to give up on Clement as a catcher. The same sample that says he’s a bad major league catcher also says he’s a bad major league hitter. I don’t believe either is the case.

Except his minor league record and observation tell us he’s a good hitter who just needs time, while his minor league record and observation tell us he’s struggling to learn very slowly to be a catcher and isn’t yet close to being adequate. There’s reason to think he’ll make the leap as a hitter, but there’s no reason to think he’ll make the leap as a catcher: just hope.

I thought we were all tired of this organization making decisions based on hope, based on the best possible outcome.

Catching for RA Dickey has definitely skewed Clement’s stats. Most catchers don’t have a prayer at throwing out a guy stealing on a 70 mph pitch. The pop-to-pop time there is just too long.

If Clement is even remotely adequate behind the plate, he should stay there. Catching is a natural platoon position and when your starter is a lefty and your backup is a righty, you can really make an impact offensively.

The difference between Johjima’s offensive output and a decent first baseman is huge. Sacrificing a little defense to get that extra offense is worth it. Really, I’m not even sure Clement is that much worse than Joh. If Clement’s your DH and Joh’s your cather, how much better are you defensively? Not much, I’d say. Probably not at all if you factor in pitcher-catcher rapport. Now compare the offense of those two with, say, the offense of Clement and Adam Dunn. I’ll take that any day of the week.

Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff Pos G PO A E DP FP RFg PB
+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
2005 21 WIS MWL A SEA C 20 148 13 2 4 .988 8.05 5
2006 22 SAN TEX AA SEA C 12 82 4 2 0 .977 7.17 1
2006 22 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 37 273 11 2 4 .993 7.68 0
2007 23 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 74 484 29 3 4 .994 6.93 13
2008 24 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 30 206 11 2 1 .991 7.23 3 6 of 27 CS
+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
Level Totals A C 20 148 13 2 4 .988 8.05 5
AA C 12 82 4 2 0 .977 7.17 1
AAA C 141 963 51 7 9 .993 7.19 16
+—————–+—+——-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
Position Totals C 173 1193 68 11 13 .991 7.29 22

And here are Clement’s stats as a C in the Show…

Year Ag Tm Lg Pos G PO A E DP FP GS Inn PB WP SB CS
+————–+—+—-+——+—-+—-+—-+—–+—-+——+—+—+—-+—+
2008 24 SEA AL C 30 154 6 1 0 .994 27 231.0 4 14 15 2

And Rob Johnson’s defensive stats as a catcher, who is “a favorite of the organization for his work with pitchers and his attitude.”

Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff Pos G PO A E DP FP RFg PB
+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
2005 21 WIS MWL A SEA C 75 489 65 8 4 .986 7.39 11
2005 21 INL CAL A+ SEA C 19 131 19 0 1 1.000 7.89 1
2006 22 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 74 466 48 6 2 .988 6.95 11
2007 23 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 69 430 34 6 5 .987 6.72 8
2008 24 TAC PCL AAA SEA C 76 473 41 8 4 .985 6.76 18 25 of 69 CS
+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
Level Totals A C 75 489 65 8 4 .986 7.39 11
A+ C 19 131 19 0 1 1.000 7.89 1
AAA C 219 1369 123 20 11 .987 6.81 37
+—————–+—+——-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
Position Totals C 313 1989 207 28 16 .987 7.02 49

So Clement has a total of 203 games catching professionally and has allowed 26 passed balls and in 2008 has caught 9 of 34 attempts at a stolen base. Johnson has caught 313 games and has allowed 49 passed balls and in 2008 has caught 25 of 69 attempts at a stolen base. I don’t know where to get a good source of Catcher ERA which would be useful as Clement and Johnson spent most of 2005-2008 as teammates so it would be a useful tool in the comparitive analysis of their catching skills.

Based on these statistics, Clement is a more effective catcher than Johnson with regards to errors and passed balls with (in 2008) Johnson having the stronger arm when it comes to throwing out base-runners. As Clement has out-hit Johnson every stop of the way, I think the organization owes it to itself to give Clement the rest of this year and the first half of next year to try to leave Clement at catcher as he has so much more value there.

Assuming Clement sticks at catcher, the M’s should be able to find a trade partner who will take Johnson in return for a hitter with a higher ceiling than Clement that will play LF, 1B, and/or DH.

And before I finish, here are Adam Moore’s stats from B-R:

Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff Pos G PO A E DP FP RFg PB
+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—–+—–+—+
2006 22 EVR NWL A- SEA C 10 80 8 1 0 .989 8.80 2
2006 22 WIS MWL A SEA C 31 252 26 2 3 .993 8.97 4
2007 23 HDT CAL A+ SEA C 101 683 64 8 5 .989 7.40 21

If it is based on personal observation… cool. What personal observations?

The same personal observations we all make watching the games every day?

What did you observe that made you think that? Did he remind you of a specific player in a specific way or something?

No

Do you see how it would be a little frustrating for someone to come in with a well-supported opinion, but you just say “Nah” without either supporting your argument or refuting his? That’s useless to everybody

Nope.. it doesn’t frustrate me one bit when someone expresses an opinion that differs from mine. I don’t see why it should bother you so much either.

I’m not trying to win a debate here. Short of having a crystal ball that shows varying versions of the future, no-one here or anywhere else knows how Clement will do at Catcher, 1B, DH or anywhere else, regardless of what other player he might look like, or smell like or any other statistic you can throw out there. Not without letting him live a little bit more of the experience.

Wait, lets try this.

I think we need a larger statistical sample size before we make the determination that he is unsuitable for playing Catcher (or more suited to play 1B, or whatever the assertion is…)

Additionally, I like the idea of having a catcher with his offensive potential. It leaves 1B open to (hopefully) bring in someone (in free agency) with some power.

Jeebus, do you have to have a statistic to back everything up around here?

He didn’t ask for a statistic. He asked for a reason.

The fact that that seems unreasonable to you says a lot, doesn’t it?

It’s just an opinion.. a gut feeling? Based on personal observation? Do I fail?

I think what your missing is… why should your gut feeling mean anything to anyone else? Not to be offensive, same thing goes for me.

If it is based on personal observation… cool. What personal observations? What did you observe that made you think that? Did he remind you of a specific player in a specific way or something?

Do you see how it would be a little frustrating for someone to come in with a well-supported opinion, but you just say “Nah” without either supporting your argument or refuting his? That’s useless to everybody.

But my real question is, whither Johjima? I have been hoping for the Sasaki-type retirement like someone else mentioned. I just can’t see him sitting on the bench for two more years.