USSM Public Service Announcement
DMZ · August 14, 2008 at 9:34 am · Filed Under Mariners
The next… oh, let’s say three… people to comment that free agents won’t sign with Seattle, particularly in discussions about getting rid of dead weight free agents that signed in Seattle, will be shown the door.
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Gil Meche signed a multi-year contract with Kansas City two offseasons ago. Jose Guillen did this offseason. KC has had one season since 1994 where they’ve been in legitimate contention (as an over .500 team, leading their division) in August. ONE.
If KC can sign a free agent, anyone can.
Alanis Morissette forever confused me on the issue, but this is irony, no?
I have to say this post is both capricious and arbitrary. It should be at least the first five.
*gasp*
you mean, they would?!!
oh, joy!
If the M’s F.O. wants to keep giving BIG bucks for overrated and useless players, then we’ll have no problem luring free agents.
It’s like RAAAAIIIIIYYYYAAAAIIIINNNN on your wedding day…
NOT.
If Washed-up is gone today, THAT will be like my wedding day.
My understanding is that since Safeco field was built, Seattle has been a very attractive destination for players. We’ve got cash, we’ve got fans, and we’ve certainly made efforts in the past to put together a winning team.
I can see an aging Veteran who wants one more shot at a ring not signing with us this offseason.
I can see a player that wants to live near their Family in Florida, or St. Louis, or Maine, or Cincinnati, or etc… not signing here.
But that’s about it.
Sorry to upset Derek and others, but it MIGHT be true that I have more knowledge about Mariner offers to free agents which have been refused.
You have no reason to believe that, so instead I’ll move on in the form of a question.
Assuming we had Washburn’s $10m salary to spend on free agents this winter, who exactly do you think that would buy…and how much difference would that person make to this team? (Specific player names, please).
Or anyone who doesn’t want a summer home in WA (I mean, you get more bang for your real estate buck elsewhere….)…
Hints at inside knowledge don’t count as substantiation of a claim.
Sorry to upset Derek and others, but it MIGHT be true that I have more knowledge about Mariner offers to free agents which have been refused.
Evidence that Free Agents X, Y and Z turned down particular Seattle offers does not imply a categorical inability to sign free agents. If that were the case, there would be a whole host of players who would have never been Seattle Mariners.
Because you know, the only thing you can do with $10 million to try to improve the outlook of your team is piss it away on overpriced free agents…there’s no such thing as international talent development programs, and if there were, they would surely be free and not require any resources.
#9
Yes, you’re right. That’s why I posed the question.
#10
Maybe I should be more specific on time frame. Obviously, Sexson and Beltre took the money. I’m referring to the current state of affairs–how much evidence do we have that viable free agents accepted our money?
#11
That’s the same point I made on a different thread before the argument moved over here. If we spend the $10m on signing draftees or rescuing more shortstops on rafts, hey, I’m in. But if the argument is that somehow that $10m is going to change our fortunes next year via free agency, I just don’t see it.
Maybe I should be more specific on time frame. Obviously, Sexson and Beltre took the money. I’m referring to the current state of affairs–how much evidence do we have that viable free agents accepted our money?
The Mariners haven’t signed a free agent since January, so obviously nobody is interested in taking their money. Look, if you keep moving the goalposts and now want to claim that Washburn/Batista/Silva don’t count, there’s no point discussing the issue further.
#7.
Why limit that 10 million to one player? There are several good, usable platers you could spend that money on.
Ex: You could get 2 bench bats (easy enough to find) and 2 relievers. That’s at spending only 2.5 million each, which is way too high for Relief Pitching. The relievers aren’t even needed.
It would be easy to find a SS or 2B to replace the two who aren’t fielding like they used to. Their good contracts and attractive BA’s make them tradeable.
If you have read USSM for any length of time, Dave and DMZ are very good at find good, servicable players on the cheap. The M’s need a lot of players to be average hitters and good defenders for modest amounts of money. These sorts of players can be found as they are readily discarded.
I’m sorry, but if the M’s can’t figure out a better way to spend $10 million than on Jarrod Washburn, then they should just fold the franchise.
Last winter, you could have signed both Milton Bradley and Randy Wolf for Washburn’s salary. Or Mike Cameron and Cliff Floyd. Or Jeremy Affeldt, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey, Adam Everett, Luis Gonzalez, and Mark Hendrickson.
This is all you need to know – Jarrod Washburn can be replaced by any number of players already in the organization who will make $400,000 next year and provide similar performance. That’s it. Once you agree to that statement, you’re required to agree that pulling him off of waivers is stupid.
ah, Cammie.
diderot –
Which free agents who turned out to be worth the money specifically turned down coming here because it was Seattle? That is a better question. Do I care that Zito, Pavano, and a bunch of other guys who were too costly and overrated didn’t decide to come to Seattle? No. Are these the caliber of viable free agents you are hanging your hat on? Because I can rattle off a bunch of guys just like them who have signed here and I wish they didn’t – Silva, Washburn, Sexson, Weaver (though a one-year deal for him was probably an ok risk, if the team cut him loose sooner), Everett, etc.
If you spend any time analyzing the free agent economics, you will see that smarter teams aren’t going toward it in big splash moves as often, and the free agent market, for perceived high value guys, is a poor place to upgrade your roster. Some free agents can help fill out your roster, and there are times when it makes sense to go after a star player, but some of these same things can be done in trades, and in developing talent in-house. Don’t look to the free agent market as your savior for top talent. It is not the place to go to do much more than hamstring your organization chasing “names” that will never be worth the number of years many of these guys want to demand.
#12 – The honus would really be on you to prove that FA’s are not interested in signing in Seattle.
The problem is that you cannot prove it either way.
Example A: Barry Zito did not sign with Seattle.
Ergo: High-priced Free Agents will not sign with Seattle.
Example B: Carlos Silva signed with Seattle.
Ergo: High-priced Free Agents will sign with Seattle.
There is no logical formula that will support either of these. You are ignoring that there are other factors besides team (which league, recent record, playing time, minor league pressure, length of contract, incentives, amount of contract, how much of a signing bonus) affinity.
It is pointless to really argue it. However, as Free Agents signed with Seattle over the last winter, your arguement loses much value.
Dave,
You need to stop this radical and “new” thinking process you are promoting here. Using logic, facts and specifics is really confusing to those of us who like the abstract and our own fairy worlds.
… more knowledge than what, exactly?
Also, why do you think I or anyone else would be upset?
Haven’t the Mariners pretty much spent more in free agency — signing more free agents in terms of contract $ — than any team other than the Yankees over the last 3-5 years? And the Yankees only beat them out because of one huge contract. I haven’t looked it up but I’d be stunned if the M’s aren’t in the top quarter of teams. Isn’t 2/3 of the roster either players signed as a free agent or players who passed on free agency to re-sign with the Mariners (Ibanez, Ichiro).
How anyone can think that free agents won’t sign with the Mariners is beyond me.
The wagner is on the other foot!
Jim Edmonds wouldn’t sign here several years ago because he didn’t like the area. Since he spurred us, can you name a major free agent that didn’t sign with the M’s because of location or money? Sure, Tejada picked Baltimore over Seattle, but they probably did a better job convincing him they’d build a winner. Zito signed in SF because he wanted to stay in the Bay area.
In the Kingdome days; guys ran away from the idea of signing here, and we heard this a lot. Not so much the case any longer.
Are the M’s going to land Sabathia this off season? Doubtful. If they did offer him a competitive deal, I guarantee Seattle would be on his list.
Think of Raul Ibanez when he came back. He loved it here, and wanted to play here long term.
There are good points made here, but the original post said that ‘the Mariners don’t need Jerrod Washburn’. I’m not standing up for him…I actually hope he’s not in an M’s uniform next year…but how exactly do we get better next year without him? Is that Morrow? Someone else in the system? I’m not sure either Morrow or anyone else is ready…but I do believe rushing someone who isn’t ready isn’t the answer.
My point is that there are two other options:
a) Look for a trade over the winter
b) Wait until the trade deadline next year and try again (when the other team doesn’t have to worry about taking on an extra year at $10m).
The original post called for riots if he were pulled back…that anything else would equate to ineptitude on Pelekoudas’ part.
I simply disagree…but I know I’m not going to convince anyone…so let’s all be happy in our opinions.
If the honus were on us, that would be a good free agent, but I think Mr. Wagner is dead. Besides, he played in the reserve clause era.
[cough]6/$69 million and then bid against just themselves to take it up to 6/$72[cough]
25,
We get better without Washburn by putting ANYBODY ELSE in the starting rotation, paying them league minimum, and allowing them to accumulate the same statistical success that Washburn has.
When you pay a guy that kind of money, you expect excellent results. If he’s anything less than excellent, he’s hurting the franchise.
While I hate to pull from Oakland’s business model, because of how badly they fail to sustain it, you have to respect the fact that they’ll use two cheap guys if they can match the performance of one overpaid guy.
Washburn is a perfect example of why this team may be the first with $100m and 100 losses.
27,
Holy crap, what was the M’s offer? Either way, he went there for a reason not tied into Seattle’s drawing power, be it money or confidence.
But seriously, I guess my memory is bad. What were the offers on the table?
An opinion isn’t a Get Out of Truth Free card.
If we have extra money, I’d suggest giving a good chunk of it to Felix instead of continuing to lowball him.
And your suggestion that the team could use the extra money to lower beer prices is lunacy. Prices are set by demand, not revenue targets.
reportedly, they offered 5/$45. The Orioles (bidding against themselves, apparently) went 6/$72.
To quote Tom Boswell at the time: “That left the Orioles fighting with the Mariners and pathetic Tigers for Tejada. The Orioles made a low-ball bid. Seattle and Detroit topped them — but, in the process — showed their cards. Then, on Sunday, the Orioles bought the pot, made the offer that can’t be refused. The Orioles smacked down $72 million to a 27-year-old who may, in reality, be 30. Baltimore ignored the Tejada birth-certificate mystery. Presented with the first really flattering contract offered
to anybody in this offseason of frugality and salary shrinkage, Tejada made the smart move. He remembered how well he’d hit in cozy Camden, as opposed to the spacious Oakland Mausoleum and, quick as you can say “Ripken,” the deal was done. “
And isn’t every contract extension effectively a free agent deal? This is a player who could have chosen to look at other offers first, but instead chose to sign with us rather than test the market.
Both Raul and Kenji fall in that category.
Remember when a 72 mil offer to a slugging all-star shortstop was batshit crazy … ah, those were the days.
Yeah, I remember now.
Anybody wish we had signed the guy?
Back to Jim Edmonds; I still hate the guy for trash talking Seattle when he was a Free Agent. I can’t root for the schmuck. Lay off my city, idiot.
From observation, I would guess that it doesn’t upset Derek to discover someone else knows more about MLB Free Agency than he does. What does seem to upset him is:
a) people who know very little about MLB Free Agency making unsupported and easily refuted claims on his website. Repeatedly.
b) discovering that people who know vastly less than he does about MLB Free Agency appear to be running his favorite team.
Derek, can we expand this a little bit to include anyone who “supports” their opinion by claiming to have secret knowledge that they can’t tell us darn blog nerds, but that would make everything they’re saying make sense if we were only insiders like them?
If you build it (a good team), they will come.
Players sign for the most part for 2 reasons:
1) Money
2) To play on a winner
Seattle has plenty of #1 and hasn’t been afraid to throw it around, if we can get back to #2, we’ll find lots of players who want to be here over several other places.
Also, you can always solve problem #2 with throwing around more of #1 (see Rangers, Texas with AROD)
Players sign places for all sorts of reasons. Salary, tax benefits, quality of life, quality and composition of the team, its ownership, the amount of sun the place gets, proximity to family, continuity with previous employment, etc… To try to generalize on the subject is just stupid, and I’m guessing DMZ regrets this post because it can be taken to imply that perhaps there is actually something to discuss.
Also remember that Washington State has no income tax. Why that always comes up as a reason that free agents want to go to Florida but never comes up for Washington escapes me.
If the M’s don’t make sure to remind every Agent and their client(s) of what $XX Million comes to after taxes in Washington as compared to being in California, New York, etc. then they’re being stupid (though that would surprise no one here).
The M’s money is as good as everybody else’s.
Hey by the way, John Mcdonald was placed on waivers! We’ve got firsties, so why not go for him?
I don’t think that’s a very insightful statement.
Many of the stated reasons may be the deciding reason, but only after going through other factors, such as…ahem…money.
Vast majority of times, if there’s a significant difference in money (as in, say, Washburn), the player is going for the money.
I actually hope he’s not in an M’s uniform next year…but how exactly do we get better next year without him?
You mean like how Anaheim did in 2005 when they let him go? You spend the $10 million on any number of other things that WILL improve the team, and use R.A. Dickey/Ryan Rowland-Smith/Ryan Feierabend/a cheaper FA signing in the rotation instead.
Look, it’s pretty simple: Jarrod Washburn isn’t worth the millions he’ll make in 2009, based on his skillset. If someone else wants to pay those millions, you let them do it.
a) Look for a trade over the winter
b) Wait until the trade deadline next year and try again (when the other team doesn’t have to worry about taking on an extra year at $10m).
Condition a) won’t apply over the winter because right now, you can’t get Randy Wolf as a free agent for 4.5 million. During the winter, you can. The reason why teams are claiming Jarrod off waivers now is it’s a dry market, and they are )( THIS CLOSE to a playoff spot, and maybe are desperate enough to try this.
As for b), the problem with this is you don’t know if he will have any trade value at that point (perhaps his rotator cuff will call it a career), and even if he did, you’re talking about paying 2/3rds of his salary (nearly 7 million) for a marginal prospect or two, if you’re lucky (recall what we got for Jamie Moyer, who’s a better pitcher than Jarrod). That’s just a really stupid amount of money to spend for that kind of return. We could probably get better players than what we’d get for Washburn in the Rule 5 draft.
You have to remember that the M’s goal should not be to be competitive next year. Sure, some shrewd moves might get us to 75-80 wins, but that’s way short of what you need to overtake the Angels. Our goal for the rest of the year should be to have a decent amount of payroll flexibility going into the off-season. Sure, in a rotation made up of Felix/Bedard/Washburn/Dickey/RRS, Washburn is arguably the third best pitcher; but you’d be better of giving it to someone like Morrow.
Free agents WON’T sign with Seattle — if Seattle’s offer is less attractive. What people usually mean when they say that is that Seattle is somehow specially unattractive to free agents, and requires a monetary premium to get players to sign; if the offers are exactly equal the player will always take the other one. This is almost impossible to confirm, since offers are never exactly equal; but as far as you can make any claim, it’s simply not true. Sometimes they sign here, sometimes they sign elsewhere. There is ZERO EVIDENCE that Seattle needs to pay extra.
Why would he regret telling people to stop making the blanket statement that “free agents won’t come to Seattle?” It doesn’t mean that he was making the opposite blanket statement.
I don’t think that that is what CCW was implying – the poster was making exactly your point, I think, and saying that by making a post out of the topic, it might seem as if DMZ were actually saying something more than that.
I assume that only DMZ can tell us if he actually regrets it, though.
There have been cases where free agents have avoided signing with Seattle teams despite more money being on the table. The Seahawks had one a while back with Kris Dielman of the Chargers, who took less money to stay in San Diego specifically because he didn’t like Seattle. Seattle teams also have to spend more time travelling than their rivals, which some folks may not want to deal with.
But other teams have their own problems, too. Brian Giles refused a trade to the Red Sox, despite that team having one of the best-run organizations in baseball and being a perennial postseason contender. Some people just have different priorities, but there’s no giant bias against Seattle itself.
I’m sure individual free agents may have reasons not to come to Seattle, but I’m sure a lot of them think Seattle is very attractive. If Jose Vidro can’t get booed in this town, who could? I know: Richie and Jeff Weaver, but still.
If I were a free agent and I had the choice of playing and working out in 95F heat, or the mid 70’s for a whole summer, I’d have my agent on the phone everyday asking “who are you talking to in Seattle?”
No bees on this thread yet? Really??
Look, we all know Seattle has about as much chance of signing a big name free agent as some cop from Clayton County, GA has of finding a bigfoot corpse in a freezer.
Wait, has anyone seen Carlos Silva lately? Sure would be nice if his contract turned out to be a hoax.
Given the choice between Jarrod Washburn on the roster or $10 million free to spend on something else, I’m taking the money every time.
I don’t think that it is tough to bring players here, but if it were, couldn’t they just put a batting cage down at the VMAC on Lake Washington and take their prospective free agents down there and tell them the M’s share the facility with the Seahawks?
I think the perception that it is difficult to bring good players here comes from the fact that the Mariners bring in the crappy players and haven’t tried to sign the good ones over the past few years.
It’s like signing a guy with a World Series ring…when he’s already washed-up!
AND that they’re relying on free agents instead of their homegrown talent to win games.
All I can say is that as a Twins fan, I hope that the Mariners are afraid of not being able to sign free agents if they dump Washburn, because I’m hearing my club put a claim in on him and I’m curled up in the fetal position hoping that it’s not true.
According to this, the M’s are going to keep Raul and Wash for the rest of the season… fuck.
Personally, I hope the Yankees pick up Washburn.
Not only because they are the ones who are most likely to eat all of his salary, but also because I don’t like the Yankees. The Red Sox would be nice, too. Just to remind those Sox fans what a bad player with a bloated contract looks like.
Well, if that SI article is right, then its time to break out the pichforks and torches.
If that SI article is true and they end up keeping Washburn, I am going to have to really reconsider the level of attention I can afford to give to the Mariners. Watching gross incompetence day after day, season after season is just not all that fun.