Here’s the bet
In considering whether the M’s should have dumped Washburn for nothing, the issue of whether the team could better use the money comes up again and again.
This off-season, at least one free agent pitcher who has superior numbers to Washburn will sign a one-year deal for under Washburn’s 2010 salary of $10m. And here, I mean numbers indicative of a pitcher’s ability:
* Strikeout rate
* Walk rate
* Line drive rate (and HR rate)
* Ground ball/fly ball split
I predict this year we’ll see at least one pitcher who is clearly superior enough to Washburn to make arguing moot, but here’s our specific criteria: at least 180 IP in 2008, K rate equal or better than Washburn’s, walk rate equal or better than Washburn, LD/HR rate equal or better than Washburn’s. They will sign a deal for one year for less than $10m. Bonus points for 2y under $10m.
I’ll make an additional secondary prediction: there will be at least one free agent hitter who signs a one-year deal for under $10m who would provide a +20 run overall upgrade at a Mariner position from this year, with offense measured by any reasonable advanced metric and defense by UZR, PMR, +/-, or any like decent defensive stat.
That’s actually going to be a tough bet to win because of the walk rate clause. The free agent starters this winter who are pretty comparable to Washburn overall and will probably have to settle for one year deals are guys like Odalis Perez, Oliver Perez, Kyle Lohse, and Randy Wolf. Of those four, only Lohse has a lower BB/9 than Washburn, and he’s probably the most likely to get a multiyear contract.
Your point is entirely correct – a better pitcher than Washburn (several, probably) will sign for less money than Washburn is owed next year. But saying that he will have a better BB/9, better K/9, and better GB% makes it tough.
You could just use tRA with an IP qualification. 😉
“the issue of whether the team could better use the money comes up again and again.”
Well, they “could better use the money,” but history shows us that the M’s would be more inclined to extend Burger Chef’s contract than use that money in any intelligent, useful fashion.
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Your ‘observation’ on Washburn implies an underlying assumption that the clearly superior free agent pitcher would choose to sign w/ Seattle for a similar contract amount.
Due to the M’s doormat status, difficult travel schedule and ‘sketchy’ defense; I think that is a large assumption.
The parlay that the M’s could jettison Wash and get a better, cheaper pitcher back this off season is a longer shot.
Go look at where free agent pitchers have historically signed, and then get back to us.
Or, save yourself the work and trust us – you’re wrong.
free agent pitcher would choose to sign w/ Seattle for a similar contract amount
I don’t know if it’s the same handful of people who just willfully refuse to check their facts before repeating this canard, or if there’s some hive of ignorance that keeps hatching new drones for the Unsupported Cynical Assumption Army (perhaps KJR has mind-altering effects in this regard?), but this claim is another that “comes up again and again” and it is getting just as tedious.
“Your ‘observation’ on Washburn implies an underlying assumption that the clearly superior free agent pitcher would choose to sign w/ Seattle for a similar contract amount.”
That’s not the point. DMZ’s post points out the Lee and the rest of the M’s FO are overvaluing Wash and failing to see that they are putting too many resources into one league-average innings eater. The M’s are wasting their resources (money, players, prospects) on average (or worse)talent that can be replaced for cheap.
I think that Dave is right about the walk rate. It might be easier to win the bet if you had stipulated that the pitcher in question be better in three of those four categories than Washburn. Requiring the pitcher to be better in every category than Wash is likely to require a pitcher who is not just superior to Washburn, but better by a large degree.
It seems like a pitcher with a much higher k rate who also walked more substantially more batters would still be clearly superior to Washburn. For example: Bedard.
Rufusgrufus said, “Your ‘observation’ on Washburn…”
Isn’t it a little weird to call a bet an observation? (What happened to the formatting buttons?)
Did I miss the earlier promised three ejections?
I agree, it’s weird how this (plausible-sounding but completely untrue) notion just pops up again and again like a weed.
Call it the curse of plausibility sportscasting. You make stuff up that refers to logic but not to evidence. It reminds me of the old saw about the French Academy debating how many teeth are in a horse’s mouth, when Galileo was poo-poohed for suggesting that maybe they have a look and count them.
“It might be easier to win the bet if you had stipulated that the pitcher in question be better in three of those four categories than Washburn.”
No, it would be easier, by definition.
The “how many teeth in a horse’s mouth” story is not historical and is itself an example of the same fallacy.
It fits right in with the “Columbus proved the Earth was round” myth and the “people thought the Earth was the center of the universe because it was special” myth. Almost anyone educated in the middle ages would have been quite certain that the Earth was round and that despite being geometrically central, the Earth was the dustbin of the universe.
““It might be easier to win the bet if you had stipulated that the pitcher in question be better in three of those four categories than Washburn.â€
No, it would be easier, by definition.”
If we’re going to be nit-picking, then I doubt that it follows by definition. In any case, that’s called “the polite might.” You use it when you want to avoid coming off as an ass about introducing a contradiction.
You could just use tRA with an IP qualification. 😉
Why not just use pRAA? No IP quals needed.
A better question is: will there be a better pitcher than Washburn who Seattle would identify and be able to sign for less than $10M, and would that pitcher perform better than Washburn?
The free agent pitching market sucks. Every year people try to find some underappreciated guy who sneaks in and gets a below market deal, but people are wrong as often as they are right. Washburn was not a good signing, but there are lots of worse pitchers making more than him. Its a tough bet, and you need to figure out the likelihood that the Mariners will roll 7 or 11 this off-season on the latest “bargain”.
“2010 salary of $10m.”
Hmm, that contract just keeps getting worse and worse! Now he’s under contract for another year!
This a bet? Seems more like a guarantee to me. I guess there is no money in guarantees though.
That’s a generous bet, DMZ. I still wouldn’t take it, but it just highlights how much leeway they have to be given to even approach competent. To win the bet they don’t even have to justify him against two five million dollar players or 2/3’s of a 15 million dollar player.
(And I’m a fan of the polite might, pygmalion. It also allows for the possibility that the speaker may be wrong.)
From Baker’s interview with Pelekoudas:
This sounds familiar somehow:
Lee [Searching underneath the couch for some talent, instead finds 10 million dollars]: Aww, 10 million dollars! I wanted some talent!
Lee’s Brain: $10 million can by lots of talent.
Lee: Explain how!
Lee’s Brain: Money can be exchanged for goods and services.
Lee: Woo-hoo!
#18 – Nice reference. Here’s another:
Yankees: How much for Jarrod Washburn?
Lee: Washburn’s contract is cursed.
Yankees: That’s bad.
Lee: But you get some free rally fries!
Yankees: That’s good.
Lee: The rally fries are also cursed.
Yankees: That’s bad.
Lee: But you get your choice condiments.
Yankees: That’s good.
Lee: The condiments contain potassium-benzoate.
Yankees: … ?
Lee: That’s bad!
Yankees: Can I go now?
What would be the stakes in this hypothetical bet?
How about DMZ eating a whole plate of Rally Fries like he’s Kobayashi or Joey Chestnut?
The Mariners 2008 season, summed up: A Comedy of T/errors.
“What would be the stakes in this hypothetical bet?
How about DMZ eating a whole plate of Rally Fries like he’s Kobayashi or Joey Chestnut?”
How about this:
If DMZ wins, Chuck and Howard have to both resign immediately.
But if DMZ loses, then Chuck and Howard both get fired immediately for not being able to find a way to better spend ten million dollars.
[long link]
I cleaned up the game-related comments.
That’s a gimme. Vidro’s performance is bettered by almost every position player in baseball.