Game 124, Mariners at White Sox

DMZ · August 18, 2008 at 4:11 pm · Filed Under Game Threads 

Washburn v Buehrle, 5:11

I’m tired of everyone hating on Jarrod Washburn just because he’s bad.

Did you know that if you drop starts where he didn’t go six innings pitched while giving up three or fewer earned runs, he has a 100% quality start percentage? Like the win and the save, the quality start should be your arbitrary statistical measure of choice in evaluating pitchers.

Speaking of arbitrary measures, you may have not noticed that Washburn’s been doing quite nicely lately. Despite not doing anything at all differently — his pitches are the same, he’s slinging them right over the plate as usual (see that great Lookout Landing coverage) and yet the results have changed. The answer is obvious: Jarrod’s doing better in a way we just can’t see in the way he throws, the way the pitches move, or in any other way — so he must be doing something different that we can’t quantify, and that non-quantifiable difference is resulting in quantifiable results. Sometimes analysis has to bow down to analysis, and this is one of those cases.

Furthermore, did you know he’s now throwing a splitter? Yup. Just like Silva was and then wasn’t, it’s a key reason why Jarrod’s success is sustainable, a fact now recognized by others).

How good is his splitter? It’s that good. Look through the pitch logs and check it out. It’s crazy. It’s seemingly logged as a changeup, a cutter, and a slider! It’s so deceptive that it has essentially the same characteristics as other pitches. That’s what’s putting the fear into batters. How can they know if a pitch that looks the same has one of two different names? That’s messing with their heads.

9″ of break on that splitter — that’s more than a fastball!

And what about keeping hitters off balance? Since June, they’ve put up a .271/.332/412 line, where before they were hitting .318/.363/.528. That’s crazy improvement! Sure, you’re going to hear from some people who want to tell you that pitchers don’t have that much control over what happens when opposing hitters make contact, and point you to studies by some Voros guy, or Woolner, or whoever, but I’m going to point you to this:

.318/.363/.528
versus
.271/.332/.412

The results don’t lie: when you look at the season in which the first ten starts are weighed against the second part, Washburn has obviously learned how to control the game. You can make up a theory to explain away whatever, but given two theories: Jarrod’s better since a selected date and now because of reasons, and Jarrod’s better for no reason at all, the view brokered by all those people who hate Jarrod for personal or statistical reasons, well, it’s pretty obvious that the first one’s the right one.

Comments

134 Responses to “Game 124, Mariners at White Sox”

  1. juneau_fan on August 18th, 2008 6:42 pm

    I got home 1/2 hour ago, and there hasn’t been an out yet.

  2. Tek Jansen on August 18th, 2008 6:44 pm

    It’s a good thing that Wash and Batista will be around next year. I mean, without pitchers like them, this game could have really gotten out of hand.

  3. Breadbaker on August 18th, 2008 6:44 pm

    Me, too, Juneau. At least Batista’s are on the ground. Hard hit on the ground, but not deep flies to the power alleys like Jarrod’s.

  4. Steve T on August 18th, 2008 6:44 pm

    dsmiley, we won against Minnesota August 4th, thanks to a strong start by Batista (6 runs in 3+ innings).

  5. PaulMolitorCocktail on August 18th, 2008 6:44 pm

    “You mean “multiple #1 starters”, don’t you? We have five number ones on our team.”

    You forgot Burke. He’s a #1 easily.

  6. msb on August 18th, 2008 6:45 pm

    how amazing is it that the Nats could somehow be 4 games worse than the Ms. In the NL, no less.

    so, just how much money did it cost to give up those 7 8 9 runs?

  7. dsmiley on August 18th, 2008 6:47 pm

    I stand corrected. Batista’s been great.

    Yankees, need some pitching?

  8. hititagainandagainandagain on August 18th, 2008 6:47 pm

    You forgot Burke. He’s a #1 easily.

    This game can only be interesting if Burke pitches.

  9. Breadbaker on August 18th, 2008 6:49 pm

    Yuni selfishly didn’t leave himself on base there.

  10. juneau_fan on August 18th, 2008 6:50 pm

    The good thing about our starters not making it past the fifth inning is, we have four more innings to make up all the runs they give up.

  11. Tek Jansen on August 18th, 2008 6:50 pm

    Those nine runs came at the expense of roughly 66 million total dollars. (39 + 27, right?).

  12. Steve T on August 18th, 2008 6:52 pm

    Well, yeah, but only about $19.3 mil of that is for this year. A bargain, considering.

  13. Swungonandbelted on August 18th, 2008 6:53 pm

    I am so effin’ glad that the M’s didn’t just give Washburn to the Twins or the Yankees…..

  14. msb on August 18th, 2008 6:53 pm

    boy, some smart GM should snap up that Ibanez kid this off season.

  15. naviomelo on August 18th, 2008 6:55 pm

    Wow. Raul’s batting .300 now.

  16. dsmiley on August 18th, 2008 6:57 pm

    @108: What about moving Joh from DH to catcher, forcing the pitchers to hit? That would be interesting. And give us an excuse to use Felix as a pinch hitter.

  17. msb on August 18th, 2008 6:57 pm

    every Jarrod Washburn start gives the Seattle blogosphere something new to ruminate about other than how its favorite team managed to lose that day’s game.

    like ruminating about how Jarrod Washburn will lose that day’s game?

  18. Steve T on August 18th, 2008 6:57 pm

    Wait — how is it that the White Sox have TWO pitchers who don’t totally suck that they can use in a game? I don’t understand — what do they know that we don’t? Isn’t there a rule or something?

  19. naviomelo on August 18th, 2008 7:00 pm

    Hard to believe, the M’s are batting .311/.347/.445 as a team in August.

  20. Waiting for 09 on August 18th, 2008 7:02 pm

    haha, the radio brodcast just said they thought they were in for a short game because of Burhle and Washburn but then they said well you have to get people out. That’s a good point.

  21. MattThompson on August 18th, 2008 7:32 pm

    HoRam? The Sox must feel some pity for the state of Mariner pitching.

    Or they’re just rubbing the Ms’ noses in it.

  22. Sinking Away on August 18th, 2008 7:36 pm

    No way HoRam gives up 7 in 1 and a 1/2. He’s no longer with us.

  23. b_rider on August 18th, 2008 7:38 pm

    I understand the fallacy of Baker’s article, and I agree that his analysis was terrible, but I have a question: Isn’t it true that “all fly balls are not equal”? The current system divides all batted balls in play into three categories, but there are harder and softer fly balls and line drives. How do the current statistics account for this? Or do they need to do so? If not, why not?

    Jeff S. mentioned this morning that we need a “hit FX” in order to achieve better analysis. How would that help?

  24. hititagainandagainandagain on August 18th, 2008 7:40 pm

    Batting practice has begun. I don’t see how we are going to make the playoffs if we don’t start pitching better.

  25. msb on August 18th, 2008 7:40 pm

    “Riggleman said he senses better times ahead. “We’re going to get it together and get it turned around”–Seattle Times.

  26. hititagainandagainandagain on August 18th, 2008 7:44 pm

    “We’re going to get it together and get it turned around.”

    Yes! Playoffs for sure. We can sign Sexson for a little extra punch in the lineup, he is available again.

  27. MedicineHat on August 18th, 2008 7:49 pm

    DMZ – If we use the Baker theory…Lopez is only immobile on balls he can’t get to.

    See, it’s refreshing.

  28. Sinking Away on August 18th, 2008 7:50 pm

    Clement’s swinging the bat well. I still don’t see the playoffs in the future.

  29. MedicineHat on August 18th, 2008 7:55 pm

    Washburn and Batista are thinking they are earning their money. You see, if they only gave up a combined 100 runs in a season for a combined $19M…then they are earning way too much at $190K per run given up. By giving up 200 runs they are making a modest $95K per run given up. Those numbers are examples, but you get the point.

  30. Dave in Palo Alto on August 18th, 2008 7:56 pm

    Wash . . .
    Batista . . .
    HoRam . . .

    Good lord Bavasi did a wretched number on this team.

  31. Carson on August 18th, 2008 8:48 pm

    All the way back up at #16:

    And how much time did you waste writing this?

    Really? You typed in the address, or clicked a link, for this blog and question why the blogger… blogged?

    This has got be getting close to the “not fun” part Dave and Derek have discussed.

  32. Mike Snow on August 18th, 2008 9:04 pm

    Jeff S. mentioned this morning that we need a “hit FX” in order to achieve better analysis. How would that help?

    Something that allows us to track velocity and trajectory off the bat, the way we now can from the pitcher’s release, would allow us to better judge when batters are hitting well as opposed to getting lucky.

  33. Gihyou on August 18th, 2008 11:52 pm

    I didn’t watch the game, but I see that Washburn performed poorly. Given that he has a new splitter that makes him a much better pitcher, I must assume he decided not to throw the splitter in this game. Why would he decide to do this?

  34. pygmalion on August 19th, 2008 5:50 am

    “Why would he decide to do this?”

    Because long ago Geoff Baker did him wrong, and now he is trying to get back at him?

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