Good word, that. Turpitude.

I just can’t envision them being forced out. Bleak view? Yup.

I hate these Mariners with the flaming passion of hell. I hope they lose every remaining game. I hope they lose them all by embarrassing 20-0 margins. I don’t give a damn about Strasburg. I give a damn about Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong: I want them humiliated. I want them to SUFFER. I want them to lie awake at night weeping silently into their pillows.

Then I want them to be forced out and replaced by people who know the difference between people who can play baseball and people who do not.

Crazy? Maybe. I don’t mind. But not boring.

This quote, and similar ones, brings a question to mind: is there a way to tell when a top draft pick is close to a “sure thing” vs a “risky, but huge upside” gamble? Examples, perhaps, of the former would be Junior and A-Rod, who were much heralded before they even got drafted, got hyped even more when they got picked, were eagerly anticipated as they progressed through the minors — and then more than lived up to the hype. Not so good but still hype-worthy was Darryl Strawberry, who indeed had plenty of talent and some good seasons, but derailed his career with drugs.

And then there’s the Al Chambers and Todd van Poppels and David Clydes of the world, who might make the majors but never amount to much.

All of these players looked good when drafted, some turned out to be as good as advertised and some didn’t: is there a way to figure out in advance who truly is a “can’t miss” prospect?

Pitchers presumably should never get the “can’t miss” label (TNSTAAPP and all that). And there’s always the risk of random injury, drug abuse or whatever derailing a career, but aside from unforeseeable happenstance, are there players who we can point to in advance and say they can’t miss?

In the NBA, there are some “can’t miss” picks such as LeBron James or Kareem Abdul Jabbar, and then there are some #1s who have question marks such as Olowakandi (who turned out to be a bust) and Allen Iverson (who turned out to be good even arguably great). We can’t predict how the question marks will turn out, but the can’t miss guys are pretty much guaranteed all-stars.

Is Strasburg a “can’t miss” or merely a highly promising prospect? Is it even possible to tell, in baseball?

If there are no, or very few, “can’t miss” prospects in baseball, then the logic of tanking in order to get the #1 pick doesn’t make much sense. My guess is that the gap between #1 and #2 isn’t real large overall … well here’s a non-random sample, ranging from Junior to A-Rod (so it’s a biased sample, because at those two endpoints we know we’ll have big gaps between #1 and #2):

#1 and #2 Picks, June Regular Draft (from TheBaseBallCube)

1987: Ken Griffey, Mark Merchant
1988: Andy Benes, Mark Lewis
1989: Ben McDonald, Tyler Houston
1990: Chipper Jones, Tony Clark
1991: Brien Taylor, Mike Kelly
1992: Phil Nevin, Paul Shuey
1993: Alex Rodriguez, Darren Dreifort

Hmm, maybe there IS a big gap between #1 and #2!

“M’s Finally End Historically Bad Season, Fire Lincoln/Armstrong. New GM Antonetti Promises New Direction. Ibanez and Washburn Newest Yankees?”

Burn, baby, burn.

We should be able to draft a decent prospect this year in the #2 or #3 spot so I’m not as concerned about who we draft as much as who the M’s have in the front office doing the drafting.