Comments on: Value of starting versus closing

By: vj

vj — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 13:42:58 +0000

When the M’s drafted fields, they may have still be believing that they had a shot at contention this season and that they would need him for that. Now, not so much any more. Indeed, taking a compensation pick in his stead in the next draft might be the better option. That compensation pick significantly lowers the leverage for Boras’ strong-arm tactics. A first-round pick cannot pitch an infinite number of seasons in independant baseball.

By: SequimRealEstate

SequimRealEstate — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 23:44:32 +0000

Thanks Teej. While I am at it thank you DMZ for another excellent post. The exlaination was different than I expected. Appreciate the education.

By: Teej

Teej — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 22:51:52 +0000

What is you source of information re: Fields? Hickey had it yesterday.

By: SequimRealEstate

SequimRealEstate — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 22:39:12 +0000

Rain Delay, What is you source of information re: Fields? I asked the authors of this blog that question a couple of weeks ago and was assured the deal was done and they were just waiting for the timing of the announcement.

Greg

By: Teej

Teej — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 22:28:29 +0000

I’m rooting for the M’s to not sign Fields, to be honest. It sucks to not get your first-round pick in any year, but if the M’s fail to sign him, then offer Raul arbitration and let him walk, they should end up with four picks in the first round/sandwich round next year. One of those picks could be used on something more valuable to this team than a reliever.

By: joser

joser — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 18:31:02 +0000

In which case they still will have spent two draft picks to get Morrow into the rotation, and will have even less to show for it.

By: Rain Delay

Rain Delay — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 17:59:05 +0000

#2: The M’s would actually have to sign Fields first and as of right now it doesn’t look like it’s going to get done. The M’s and Fields are about half a million off – and Boras would be more than happy to send Fields to the Indy’s and have him re-enter the draft in 2009.

By: joser

joser — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 17:22:03 +0000

The unique thing about Morrow is the opportunity cost: the M’s have now spent not one but two first round draft picks on the hope of making Morrow a starter. If he ends up joining Fields in the bullpen on a permanent basis, that goes a long way to undoing all the good work the M’s have done in acquiring cheap bullpen arms. It would be mitigated somewhat if they could trade Putz high, but that doesn’t look lightly at this point. (Maybe next year, if Morrow washes out as a starter and goes back to the pen, and Putz reliably regains his old form).

By: Tree

Tree — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 16:35:35 +0000

I’m suspicious of Silver’s use of leverage index, since the replacement reliever isn’t going to inherit the closer’s high leverage. The second best reliever will get the highest leverage, the third will get the second, etc. This should reduce the value lost by converting a closer, and therefore raise the necessary ERA that the closer needs to have as a starter.