Vidro out, Wlad up
I can’t help myself: hot-cha-cha-chaaaaaaaaaa
Morrow to Tacoma to Convert to Starter
Huzzah – it’s a year and a half too late, but Brandon Morrow is finally heading back to the minors to get ready for his future as a major league starting pitcher. Jared Wells takes his roster spot for the next few days, and then will go away when Ryan Rowland-Smith is recalled to take Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation. Batista will move to the bullpen.
Nice to see this team finally looking towards 2009.
Why Raul Ibanez will decline arbitration
First, revel in the joy of not seeing Ibanez given an extension this spring, or as a distraction from the losing (back before we got numbed to it). At the start of the season I was sure it would happen, but here we are, debating if they’ll get draft picks out of him.
Anyway — Ibanez made $5.5m this year. If he heads to arbitration, he and the team get to face off for a one-year deal where they both make arguments about why he deserves $5m or $20m, and he walks off with one under contract for one of those offers. Unfortunately for the M’s, defense won’t make much of a difference in that hearing. So pick a number… say he comes out with $7m.
He can do better on the open market. Ibanez is 37, yes, but from 06 through now, he’s hitting .286/.351/.486. This year he’s at .284/.350/.472. Plus, he’s got a sterling reputation as a good clubhouse guy, a media-friendly face who always gives the post-game cliche.
Jose Guillen was younger, but got 3y/$36m for less. Or go back to 2006 — Frank Thomas got a 2y, $18m deal at 40. Or Aubrey Huff, who got a 3y, $20m deal in Houston. Carlos Lee got $100m! Heck, Luis Gonzalez was 40 and got $7m, Moises Alou was 42 and got $8.5m…. anyway. The outfielder shuffle this off-season could be ridiculous, and Ibanez could easily benefit hugely.
Ibanez will know that he’ll almost certainly get a better one-year offer on the open market than he could win in arbitration. But even if he couldn’t, what Ibanez is really going to want is a multi-year deal, and he might well get one. And as a free agent, he gets his pick of situations. If he wants out of Seattle’s losing, or if he’d prefer a more agreeable travel schedule, he can control that.
To accept arbitration, Ibanez has to decide that he’s willing to stick around for another year at all. And then he has to decide that any value he places on liking Seattle plus his agents’ best guess at what they can come out of arbitration is worth more than making more money and being able to pick his situation in free agency. And, further, he has to weigh the chances that the M’s, having taken him through arbitration, will cut him anyway, leaving him without team at some point in the off-season anyway (significantly richer, presumably), but with his options possibly quite reduced.
I’d put the odds seriously against it.
What if he accepts, the M’s lose arbitration, and they’re stuck with Ibanez for a year at, say, ten million (just a number)? They can either play him at DH, which wouldn’t be so bad, or release him and eat a chunk of the arbitration-awarded contract. Either way, that’s not such a terrible outcome.
If a team could pay that release number for a 50% chance at two good draft picks, the smart ones would all take it. At the actual chance Raul declines, almost every team would bet that money.
Take him to the end of the season, offer him arbitration, see what happens. It’s the right move.
Game 112, Twins at Mariners
Perkins v Batista. 7:10.
Attn: Local Media
Subject: A favor
Dear Beat Writers,
As you’re aware, Jose Vidro is in the starting line-up tonight. No one has any idea why. Could someone please ask Jim Riggleman and Lee Pelekoudas for an explanation. And then, when they give their ridiculous cliche answer, look them in the eye, and say “no, seriously, what the hell?”
You might get fired, but we’ll love you for it.
Thanks,
The Fans.
Triunfel
One of that I just haven’t had the time to maintain this year (thanks to my impending marriage and all) is the Future Forty, so I know the minor league coverage around here has been a bit sparse. Sorry about that.
But I still wanted to highlight Carlos Triunfel’s resurgence for those who hadn’t noticed. The much hyped 18 year old struggled badly early on in the season with performance, injuries, and a suspension for behavioral issues. Not being able to hit in High Desert was a black mark against him, and while everyone agreed that he was still talented, the frustration was beginning to build. His total lack of power didn’t help when people would question his long term value, either, as he didn’t hit his first professional home run until June.
But July and now August have brought new life to Triunfel, who is redefining the phrase on fire. After a .154/.208/.246 month of June (ugh), he hit .371/.405/.586 in July, including launching six home runs. He’d hit one in his entire career heading into July before launching six in a month.
He hasn’t slowed down in August either, going 5 for 13 with a double and a triple since the calendar flipped. And, just to put a cherry on top, he’s 15 for 17 in stolen bases since July 1st and running like crazy. Since the Cal League returned from their all-star break, Triunfel is hitting .361/.405/.563 with 16 extra base hits, 9 walks, 11 strikeouts, and 17 stolen bases in 144 at-bats.
Even after his massive problems early on, his season line is now up to .286/.334/.414. Yes, High Desert is a hitters paradise in a hitters league, and one month of sustained greatness doesn’t mean that he’s solved his consistency problems, but in case you were wondering when he was going to show the talent we’ve been talking about for a while here, well, he is now. Still just 18, he’s adding strength to his body and learning how to do more than just make contact. The addition of power to his already terrific contact rates show just why we think he can be an offensive force in the big leagues.
In a season where few things have gone right, Carlos Triunfel is blossoming as a bright spot.
Game 111, Orioles at Mariners
Cabrera v Silva. If Silva’s back holds out.
Game 110, Orioles at Mariners
Guthrie v Felix. Felix woooooooo!
Littlest Ball
K Johjima reached on infield single to shortstop, A Beltre scored, J Clement to third, M Cairo to second. 10 1
J Reed singled to right, J Clement scored, M Cairo to third, K Johjima to second. 10 2
I Suzuki grounded out to first, M Cairo scored, K Johjima to third, J Reed to second. 10 3
W Bloomquist reached on infield single to shortstop, K Johjima scored, J Reed to third. 10 4
B LaHair reached on infield single to shortstop, J Reed scored, W Bloomquist to second. 10 5
Ground ball to shortstop, single to right, ground ball to first, ground ball to shortstop, ground ball to shortstop = five runs.
What?
Yup
That’s what regression to the mean looks like. Call your college coach again, Jarrod, because you still suck.
Game 109, Orioles at Mariners
Garrett Olson v Jarrod Washburn.
Baker made a good argument about the Mariner-Yankee trade negotiations in his recent coverage: it’s that the M’s, if all it was going to be was a salary dump, had no incentive to make the deal then. They could just as easily salary dump the Bus through waivers by putting Washburn on waivers and letting anyone who claimed him take the contract (at which point they dust their hands off and congratulate themselves on a job well done). And maybe that’s the Yankees… but maybe it isn’t. Buuttt probably it is.
If I understand my Major League Rule 10 correctly, if there’s only one waiver claim, it goes to that team. If there’s two in the same league, lower record. If everyone claims, it’s the same league, worst record.
And there’s the crazy part: who in the AL holds a worse record than the Yankees and wants to take on that salary? It could well be that the Yankees demanded they give up nothing because they figured that if the M’s waived Washburn because they wanted to rid themselves of the contract, he’d wash up on their beach.
That’s a crazy rule, by the way. There are a bunch of teams in the NL contending with worse records and who could also afford Jarrod.
The downside, though, is that Washburn’s value right now exists as a precarious balance, where the massive cost of his remaining year-and-something looks worth taking on based on superficially good results lately — but there’s enough reluctance that teams wouldn’t give up premium prospects, or the M’s would have moved him. But the M’s need to move him for next year, and he’s just not that good.
What happens if Washburn’s starts give Washburn results, and his value plunges? The team may have to pay part of his deal to move him. But if he continues to pitch well, how much does his value go up? Each start risks the chance to rid the team of his 2009 salary.