The return to the long dark winter of a small market
I don’t have a lot to say about Armstrong’s comments, but I wanted to make this quick point:
His comments about the challenges of Seattle’s market, and more generally the preparations to get everyone ready for slashing payroll and going to ground for a couple of years, are entirely lies, based on the premise that Seattle is a small market, which it isn’t, or that it’s hard to make money, which it’s not, and that they gave it a good try but failed because of totally unforseeable events they had no control over.
It’s part of the team’s long and storied history of mendacity, expectation-lowering, and their continual pouting that the fans and the city aren’t grateful enough to them for operating a for-profit business subsidized by us all.
As bad as these years have been, I’m not looking forward to seeing an even more petulant team waving a finger at me in the future, lecturing me on how they can’t afford to upgrade the team because I don’t go to enough games, rather than because they spent so long being so incompetent when the money was easy to come by.
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[deleted, politics]
Yeah, it’s really sad to look back at the missed opportunity. When SafeCo opened, the team had a great new stadium and a team that was regularly competing for the division. We had a core of fan-favorite players, anchored by a guy who was not only one of the best hitters of the era, but a likeable guy. 2001 was amazing, the most fun I’ve had as a fan. The M’s really were on the cusp of being one of baseball’s elite.
And they blew it. Derek made a comment in the previous post that the M’s have the resources to compete. I must disagree on a technicality. They have the money to compete. They don’t have the brains. Ergo, they’re lacking a critical resource.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your Seattle Scarecrows.
“If they only had a brain…”
Their is always the light at the end of the dark winter. Maybe just maybe something positive may happen. Like Joey Cora as coach or Antonetti to GM or even perhaps Griffey comming back for 1 season of love.
Maybe just maybe something positive happens. The organization will probably just trade all the young talent left for someone like Juan Pierre or something stupid like that……..sigh*.
[deleted, politics]
but. but. that would mean that they were wrong!
“Griffey comming back” [sic] is EXACTLY the kind of garbage I expect from this idiotic team.
Joey Cora? Really? You think what this team is missing is Joey Cora? I think we need some brain matter in the FO, that’s what I think we need.
The last thing I need is to see Cora on the end of the bench crying.
But more importantly, thanks to Chuck I now understand that the failures of the future are already partly my fault. If only I hadn’t singlehandedly destroyed Richie’s confidence…
You’d probably be better served to use a different analogy, since this isn’t a political blog. I am not sure it serves anybody to take a thread like this down the path you seem to want to take it. I’d recommend the Time, WSJ, or NYTimes blogs if you want get people worked up about politics. Save Derek and Dave a major headache and try to keep this forum a friendly place for all of those looking to talk about baseball and the Mariners.
[meta]
If you come into my house, start stealing my stuff, and I punch you in the face, you’re not being “censored.”
This is our house, and you don’t have the right to say whatever you want in our house. We’ve setup the rules to help maintain a place where people who disagree about everything else on earth can come and talk about baseball. If you can’t talk about baseball without venturing into those other areas, then you’ll be shown the door.
Punch ‘em in the face, punch ‘em in the face!
Seriously, if this statement mirrors the actual thinking in the front office, it’s pathetic. Their own history showed how you turn a small team into a large team: win lots of games.
If it doesn’t reflect their thinking, it’s even more pathetic that they’re lying to their customers.
Ah, well. When choosing between incompetence and malice, choose incompetence. Armstrong has presided over FAR more years of losing than he has of winning….
“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”
-Hanlon’s Razor
(or are you referencing something else?)
First off, long time reader…fist time post. Thanks for all the great reading.
Second, a good punch to the face is what some people need to knock some sense into their little pea brains. The FO has shown that they know how to field a good team, but got hungary and ate every bit of common sense they had left.
well, as Baker said yesterday when talking about how the Times is allocating resources, the GM meetings may be the most interesting part of this season
Along with what Dave said about their house their rules, whenever someone uses a “political analogy”, we spend the rest of the day cleaning up an often incredibly acrimonious political dust-up.
The intent isn’t to censor; however, this is a baseball blog. Pick a different analogy that is less likely to start a fight if you must use one.
I know we’re not even close to what happened to the Sonics, but…
Derek and Dave, how many years of horrible teams do you think it will take before something similar does go down? I’m not saying it will, and I certainly would never give up on this team – it’d take a major catastrophe, but you have to consider that, eventually, poor-performing teams will drive away the casual fans, thus degrading attendance to a bare minimum. Poor attendance, of course, leads to a bad financial situation for the team, which no team in their right mind takes for too long.
Is there a guide written by a Pittsburgh fan that shows us how to cope with this? That is where the M’s are headed. It makes me sad.
I read Armstrong’s comments not as “We’ve screwed up badly and we’re going over to a new way of thinking in orderto rebuild”, so much as “We’ve had bad luck, and we’re going to look a lot like the Royals and Pirates for the next few years. Woe is us”.
As long as there’s Kansas City Royals, I won’t worry about there not being Seattle Mariners.
…but, that doesn’t mean I want to end up being them.
Rumors of a transfer of ownership, please be true…
Rumors of a transfer of ownership, please be true…
Rumors of a transfer of ownership, please be true…
Rumors of a transfer of ownership, please be true…
This franchise is doomed until Howard and Chuck, and the residue from their executiveship, is gone…
We don’t need new ownership – we need new leadership.
I was under the impression that the current ownership is extraordinarily unlikely to change the current leadership, so for now ownership/leadership is effectively the same thing.
As msb said “the GM meetings may be the most interesting part of this season”
There are a lot in interesting topics and discussions that could stem from the GM meetings, if we will rebuild or retool, there are a lot of intriguing options out there.
When the house is falling down, putting a fresh coat of paint on it doesn’t help anything. Until there is some concrete move made in the FO and the thought and direction of that move can be evaluated, the rest is…well…fill in your own description.
The thing that I see in those comments is the continuation of refusal to take responsibility. There was the one line about having to be financially and fiscally (same thing?) responsible, but the overall tone was totally different. I kept hearing that gag line from The Empire Strikes Back…”IT’S NOT MY FAULT!”
The Sonics were not destroyed by low attendance. They suffered from a poorly designed agreement between the NBA and the players, and from competition for corporate dollars from the Mariners and Seahawks. Now all those corporate dollars will be split two ways…benefitting both remaining major sports franchises. And the M’s are in a very workable financial situation with regards to player pay…other than their own stupid decision-making. The M’s couldn’t find a better deal than they have here unless the Yankees, Cubs or Red Sox decide to leave their cities for greener pastures. Won’t happen.
“the GM meetings may be the most interesting part of this season”
I’m not real interested in reading sports-reporter blog reports on site at the GM meetings how the other GMs are laughing at the Mariner contingent trying to unload their big-ticket free agents and re-signees…
Now now, that comment assumes the Sonics could have continued to play terrible basketball indefinitely and that continually dropping attendance figures (irrespective of any of the other factors you mentioned) would never result in the loss of the team.
That seems debatable until you remember that it (assertion that losing games—>losing the team) wasn’t and never could be considered irrespective of the other factors you mentioned, yet on the other hand, I’d bet my arm the team would still be here if Basketball Ops hadn’t made about 200 consecutive terrible personnel decisions that resulted in a team only the most diehard fan could stand to watch (google Jonah Keri’s thoughts on Wally Walker).
The M’s won’t leave because there is an advantageous (for ownership) ‘attendance elasticity of suck’ at work with this franchise and its fans. As the team sucks more each year, attendance will continue to drop, but at some point only the M’s fans that really are significantly bothered by how much the team sucks, and have some sort of understanding of how pooch-screwy the FO’s organizational philosophy is (as borne out in its personnel decision making), will be staying home.
The team can suck more and more, but attendance will drop by a smaller percentage as those driven away by the losing become a smaller and smaller percentage of the total draw. I have zero proof, but like you say, the financial situation will remain very workable as long as they learn to abjectly waste a little less payroll. People here just don’t care about winning enough to stay away from a gorgeous day at Safeco Field despite how bad the team gets. It’s just us, the tragically and relatively few of us, that will stay home in protest because of the travesty of roster misconstruction alone.
I’ll quietly be rooting for Chris Larson to become the majority owner, and sent Howie and Chuck-chuck packing. I want to love my teams, but the M’s are making it awfully damn hard….
Statements like Armstrong’s harm the ability of the club to attract the GM and managerial (and other FO) talent the team needs. As I’ve said before, they only hired Piniella and Gillick at points where they were desperate for credibility. If they don’t believe they are in such straits now, they will hire Bavasi v.2.0 and Hargrove v.2.0 (which may be Riggleman).
Paul, are there new rumors?
About the punching in the face stuff, when did we go to Cleveland? And Dave, thank you. Whoever throws out the first pitch next year in Baltimore, it’s not going to help the M’s one way or another.
Piniella, yes, but Gillick?
Sorry for the earlier transgression. I exist in a Nate Silverish world of nonstop politics and baseball blogs. I forget where I am sometimes. Sorry.
Gillick absolutely. They had to trade Griffey, remember?
but what does that have to do with a quest for credibility?
smb
NO, the ownership of the Sonics stated repeatedly that the attendance was not the issue…that they would lose money even if Key Arena sold out for the season. There are structural problems with the NBA that are making formerly profitable franchises tank. And with new stadiums for the M’s and Seahawks, the Sonics weren’t selling out their corporate suites. Stern wants teams in markets where they are the only game in town for these reasons…hense OK City.
This just gets back to the old ‘If you have a competitor that routinely puts out a greatly superior product for a third the cost, wouldn’t that make you re-evaluate your business practices?’ statement that gets said here from time to time. Armstrong is poor-mouthing Seattle and the Ms, but I have money that says we will _still_ have a bigger payroll than Oakland or Cleveland and _still_ get owned by them in the standings. I further have money that says that nobody in the paper media in Seattle will ask Armstrong and Lincoln about the disparity.
Their is always the light at the end of the dark winter.
But we’re a long ways north. The winter can be very dark. And very, very long.
Given the strength of the Angels now, the advantages the A’s will have soon, and the fact that each of the other divisions has at least two teams that are richer and/or smarter, the M’s could go another decade or more before so much as sniffing a wild card spot, let alone a pennant.
When they knew they were going to have to trade Griffey, they had to bring in a GM with enough credibility with the fans who could actually pull the trigger on a deal without making everyone go crazy. And they gave Gillick a reasonable amount of room to sign Olerud, Javier, McLemore and Rhodes. The next year, facing the loss of A-Rod, he could sign Ichiro (which of course wasn’t controversial within the organization) and Nelson.
After that, nada.
I realize Armstrong’s not particularly popular around here, but I still don’t understand the direct criticism of his statement. Unless I’m misunderstanding things, all he’s said is that attendance will decrease as the team rebuilds.
The dude is a businessman, not a GM, and this seems to be a straightforward prognostication of the effect rebuilding will have on his primary revenue stream.
You’re misunderstanding things. It’s the market statement he’s making, not the attendance.
Though he lies about that, too.
when Gillick was hired, they didn’t yet know if Griffey would stay or go:
to quote Larry Stone from his article on Gillick’s hiring: “They face the pending free agency of two superstars, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, after the 2000 season. The club must decide whether to trade one or both of the players if a new contract can’t be worked out. The M’s have already put out offers to both players that they claim will make them the highest-paid players in baseball history.”
Can we maybe not turn this comment thread into a debate about the Sonics situation?
It’s over now, and there’s no evidence that the Mariners are or ever will be in a similar situation.
So is the rumor true that the Seahawks are moving to LA next year??
Another question here. How do you think the team’s poor performance will affect things like tickets prices, food and beverages, and the like? I haven’t been to a game at all this year, and don’t have much of an idea about prices of anything right now?
So, to be clear, you’re saying that his statement: “if you don’t build a strong foundation in a market our size, you’re going to have some volatile swings in your record” is a lie because it’s based on his insistence that the Mariners are a small(er) market team?
And out of curiosity, what is the lie about attendance? I don’t think I’m quite following you here.
I thought at first this Thiel column was from this season ….
“So is the rumor true that the Seahawks are moving to LA next year??”
Sonics move to Oklahoma.
Seahawks maybe move to LA.
Next up, Mariners move to Poughkeepsie, NY!
I’m giving up my season tickets after 8 years because there is little chance of a reasonable return on the investment next season or the season after that one. In my mind, the reason to have season tickets is so you are guaranteed tickets for playoff games. And as you will recall, there is nothing more exciting than seeing your team in the playoffs — entire offices shut down, bars fill up, and the first thing out of everyone’s mouth the next day is — did you see the game.
I wrote off Armstrong and Lincoln awhile ago. I don’t think they should worry about the individual players or even make pronouncements about “rebuilding.” That is the gm’s job. The closest Armstrong should get to the front office is to drop them a memo letting them know the amount budgeted for player salaries. Armstrong shouldn’t be answering questions about baseball decisions. The most important decision for Armstrong, Lincoln and the ownership group is selecting a GM. Period.
Then give the GM at least 3 years to put his mark on the mariners. And sit back and see what happens.
Small market or not, there are a mind-boggling number of statistics available for evaluating talent. With some luck a “team” can be put together. Not just 25 guys with big league abilities. A team. The chemistry that cannot be bought.
At the end of the day it’s pitching and not falling in love with your stars — condition your fans to the idea that they had better watch so-so play while he is here because the next time he’s on this field he will be wearing a different uniform. Except in rare instances, none of which I can think of, you have to avoid the free agent market as a buyer. Sell, sell, sell and get 3 to 5 players in return. Pickup veterans for situations.
Free agents may help at the gate, but in the end is it good for the team? Find a GM and do not pressure him to put fans in the seats. Let him put a plan in place and give him 3 years.
I’ll be at Safeco to see what happens next year, I’m just not going to pay up front by buying season tickets.
I think the Larry Stone quote (remembering that it’s basically just regurgitating what the club was saying, not doing any analysis of the market) supports my position. Even if they thought they were going to keep Griffey and A-Rod (which I personally doubt, without any evidence other than having been around here at the time), hiring Gillick would give them credibility with the two of them and their agents about the future of the franchise. But anyone who saw Griffey’s body language starting the day Safeco opened had to know his days here were numbered and anyone who has ever talked to Scott Boras had to assume the risk of him taking A-Rod through free agency was non-negligible. So, having just opened Safeco as “The House Griffey Built”, but with no assurance of a Griffey or an A-Rod after 2000, they brought in a competent GM and gave him some serious green to build a team. Once he had accomplished that, and after 2000 and 2001 had built up the fan base, they turned Gillick into Stand Pat and then replaced him with “a solid baseball man who was responsible for the Angels’ World Championship.” You can see the results.
I wouldn’t count on any kind of price rollback. This organization isn’t about to say “hey, we suck — our product is worth less this year than last. Sorry about that.” And with the economy the way it is, it’s a given that prices go up on pretty much anything that’s not an investment.
Price increases for tickets, food and beverages, and merchandise can all be blamed on inflation affecting underlying expenses, and most of us have to accept it at face value.
w/r/t Gillick, Griffey’s body language, et cetera:
Um… that’s a pretty creative interpretation of events, but okay, you’re free to build the reality of your choosing as do all of us.
I didn’t see that Griffey’s body language from the day Safeco Field opened indicated anything of the sort, and I think I count as one of “anybody”
So is the rumor true that the Seahawks are moving to LA next year??
Yeah, because Paul Allen wants to make more use of his jet to fly to games; he hates driving across the lake. And spending all that money om a new practice facility in Renton (with a dock for his yacht) was an elaborate ruse. Or maybe he needs the money (this economy is hurting everybody, right?) and he’s going to sell the team to Jerry Bruckheimer, Jack Nicholson, and Magic Johnson.
Griffey comming back would just be a great idea for attendance purposes. Even if he was at DH. Only way he would come though is if he gets a ring this year.
As for Joey Cora, come on he is a great bench coach and will probably be a head coach next year somewhere. Why not here? He has the winning attitude, has the smarts and knows the game well. Another plus side is that Seattle fans for the most part still love him and would welcome him to the franchise. Even if he doesn’t get it because their is someone better, i would still like to see him get a chance at it.
People might come out for the novelty of a Griffey return for a little while, but there’s no way they’re going to want to hang around watching him suck game after game while the team loses.
Ichiro is hugely popular and he’s been playing well — but the turnstiles are clicking a lot slower now than they used to.
Boston’s still raking in the attendees despite getting rid of fan favorites like Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar, Nomar Garciaparra, etc, etc, etc. Winning == attendance. Nostalgia == newspaper column inches.
I wouldn’t count on any kind of price rollback. This organization isn’t about to say “hey, we suck — our product is worth less this year than last. Sorry about that.”
The Orioles are offering $1 tickets for the month of September (in limited numbers). Angelos may be a meddling idiot, but apparently he is capable of feeling shame, or at least obligation. Just think: it’s now cheaper to see Adam Jones play in the bigs than it was to see him at Tacoma. And let’s not forget Camden was the prototype of the beautiful neo-retro ballpark style that Safeco embraced. Apparently that only works for so long. If the M’s keep losing like the Orioles, $1 tickets may be in their future too.
How do you know he’s a great bench coach, or has more of a winning attitude, smarts, or game knowledge than any average ex-ballplayer candidate?
And this is really what it’s all about: nostalgia. I loved those teams as much as anyone, but we’re not going to build a winning team, or draw bunches more fans, by bringing back the heroes of the past. If anything, it’ll damage the good memories when yesterday’s heroes can’t rescue the team from today’s problems.
As for Joey Cora, come on he is a great bench coach and will probably be a head coach next year somewhere. Why not here? He has the winning attitude, has the smarts and knows the game well.
I’m sure he gives 110% and takes one game at a time, too. C’mon, a “winning attitude”? That 2001 team had “winning attitude” if any team ever has, and how many World Series rings did that get them? Or are you saying Lou Piniella didn’t have a winning attitude? (Is the difference between Piniella’s Devil Rays and Piniella’s Cubs that he had a winning attitude in Chicago but not in Tampa? Or maybe, just maybe, it was the players?)
I certainly hope you don’t think Joey Cora is going to make a difference in attendance (”A Mariners game? But they suck!” “Yeah, but Joey Cora’s in the dugout now!” “Oh, in that case, let’s get box seats!”)
“The last thing I need is to see Cora on the end of the bench crying.”
True enough. If Cora were hired as the manager of the M’s, he’d be reduced to tears every game, given the mediocrity of this team and front office.
mln,
Anyone who cares as much as Cora does about winning would, agreed. The image of him sobbing on the bench after the playoff elimination is tattooed on my brain.
TotallyNotWilly,
I was mostly joking, but what I meant to imply was that a winning Sonics team with high attendance (a good indicator of fan support, no?) would have gotten its new arena. Walker torpedoed the fan support to a point that most people didn’t care, and the politicians acted in accordance with that general apathy. You can rescind your “NO,” I don’t disagree with your point about the broken dynamic, and to quote DMZ, “Screw the NBA.” I’m sure most of us can agree on that.
Let’s pretend this is July 2007…
As for [John McLaren], come on he is a great bench coach and will probably be a head coach next year somewhere. Why not here? He has the winning attitude, has the smarts and knows the game well. Another plus side is that Seattle fans for the most part still love him and would welcome him to the franchise. Even if he doesn’t get it because their is someone better, i would still like to see him get a chance at it.
Yeah. So much for “hey, he’s a good bench coach”.
Coach in the Cubs’ minor-league system in 2000.
General manager for Caguas of the Puerto Rico League in 1999-2001.
Manager, Rookie level Kingsport (New York Mets) in 2001-02
Manager, Single-A Savannah (Montreal Expos) in 2003
3B coach, White Sox, 2004-2006
Manager, LaGuaira Sharks of the Venezuelan Winter League in 2005.
Bench coach, White Sox, 2007-
Finalist for the Pirates & Nationals managerial jobs.