A Eulogy for Adrian
Yesterday, Adrian Beltre played his final game of the season, as he’s having surgery on both his thumb and his shoulder on Thursday. Because the Mariners seem resigned to a several year rebuilding process and Beltre’s a free agent at the end of next season, it seems likely that the M’s will trade him this winter, meaning Beltre has probably played his last game as a Mariner.
So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at what he’s given us since signing here four years ago.
2005-2008: 2,370 at-bats, 632 hits, 145 2B, 8 3B, 95 HR, 173 BB, 420 K, 36 SB, 10 CS
As a Mariner, Beltre has hit .267/.320/.455, which works out to about five percent better than a league average hitter would perform playing half his games in Safeco. Five percent may not sound like much, but a sustained advantage over four years adds up, and Beltre’s been worth about a total of 1.5 wins above an average hitter while wearing a Mariner jersey.
Of course, we all know that Beltre isn’t just a hitter – he’s also one of the best defensive third baseman alive, and he’s been a tremendous asset with the glove as well. According to the Fielding Bible’s +/- system, Beltre was 24 plays better than an average third baseman in ’06, 7 players better than average in ’07, and 28 plays better than average in ’08. We don’t have +/- available for 2005, but MGL’s UZR system is built similarly (they just use different datasets but the same basic idea), and he has Beltre at four runs above average (or about +6 plays to get it on the same scale as +/-) during the ’05 season.
So, if we just do some basic approximations, we could say that Beltre was something like +5 runs with the glove in ’05, +15 runs in ’06, +5 runs in ’07, and +20 runs in 2008, give or take a few runs each season. Overall, we’re estimating that Beltre saved about 40 runs with his defense during his time as a Mariner – 40 runs is about four wins.
So, we add Beltre’s +4 wins defensively to his +1.5 wins offensively, and we can say that Beltre’s been about 5.5 wins better than an average player over his four years as a Mariner. Comparisons to average are fairly easy, but there’s a problem – league average players aren’t just laying around, so we have to give Beltre credit for the gap between league average and replacement level as well. In general, a replacement level player is about two wins below average per season. Over four years, the difference between a replacement level player and a league average player would be about eight wins.
So, we add 8 wins to the 5.5 we’ve already credited to Beltre for being above average, and we can say that he’s been worth something like 13.5 wins above a replacement level third baseman during his four years as a Mariner.
The Mariners have paid Adrian Beltre about $50 million over the last four years, including annual salaries and a prorated portion of his signing bonus. $50 million for 13.5 wins works out to about $3.7 million per win – the going rate for a free agent the last few years has been between $4 and $5 million per win.
No matter how you slice it, Adrian Beltre has been a relative bargain for the Mariners – a high quality player signed to a below market contract. Often maligned for his contract by those who don’t understand how valuable he’s been, Beltre has been one of the shining lights in a stretch of dark seasons.
If we really have seen the last of Adrian Beltre, it’ll be a shame. The Mariners need more players like Beltre, not less. I’m afraid that Beltre is doomed, however, to be the next Mike Cameron – wildly underrated during his time here and highly valuable to the teams that employ him after the M’s cut him loose. The Mariners have never been able to replace Cameron in the outfield, and it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to replace Beltre at third anytime soon.
If this was it, Adrian, thanks for four great seasons. We’re sorry that some people don’t understand how good you are, and we hope to see you next spring. But if we don’t, it was fun having you here, and we’ll be worse off without you.
Amen. Here is hoping that the new GM is enlightened enough to see what we all know. Beltre rocks!
I don’t want to believe they’ll trade Beltre. And there’s no way they’ll get a fair return for him; even a good GM would have trouble getting a fair return, since Beltre’s perceived as overpaid.
Like Cameron, Beltre has also had all those character virtues this franchise supposedly values. Like Cameron, I’ll cheer for him wherever he goes.
I remember the first game I saw Cameron play at Safeco Field and watched him make a spectacular play. Everyone at that game realized how special this guy was. Of course, he “struck” out too much. He wasn’t “clutch”. He was doomed here in Seattle.
You forgot to mention he had played all of this season and most of last with a pretty painful injury…
I just hope he is still a Mariner when he’s 100% healthy and starts tearing it up.
I actually felt a little bit sad reading this, as if it was the obituary of a dear friend.
Crazy…
If bringing the left field fence in a bit would get Beltre to re-sign I would do it in a heart beat, even though I’m not too keen on organizations that alter the dimensions of their ballparks after initial construction to better suit their sluggers.
I don’t know that I agree with you on Cameron. Not about his skills but from the standpoint of how he was valued.
I’ll grant you that he was UNDERvalued – clearly by the organization at the very least. But I think that the fan base and the media gave Cameron far more credit than they have given Beltre. If you listen to the radio or just talk to an average fan, (as you know) it’s basically a consensus that Beltre has been “a bust.” With Cameron, people clammored about getting a CF with more offense but he DID at least get tons of credit for his defensive prowess.
Still upset that Cameron was allowed to leave… and now Beltre too. Doesn’t make sense. Even if you’re rebuilding, you want at least one or two good guys around to be examples on how to do things right…
If Beltre goes, what will happen to Red, his biggest fan?
Poor Red.
Having the new GM work out a good deal to keep Beltre (and the cave trolls in the FO giving it their OK) is the measure of if I’ll consider returning as a fan.
Letting go of Adam was the breaking point before, and letting Adrian go will guarentee I stay far away from anything Mariner, save Ichiro!
Dave, you post implies that you think the new GM will either automatically take orders from above to deal Beltre or be so predisposed to M’s FO way of thinking that dealing Beltre would be a priority. How much hope do you have that the M’s will hire a GM smart enough not to trade Beltre and who has enough authority and independence to prevent Armstrong/Lincoln from doing so?
I think a lot of that was, nationally, Cameron was often overlooked, but the ‘Beltre as Bust’ meme has been in place since almost the start of his tenure
one of the things I like about Riggleman is that he loves AB (“He’s a great player, a tough guy and he’s a leader”) almost as much as Red does.
I’d like to point out an error in this analysis.
The inflation rate in baseball has been steady at ~10% the last few years. We have to take this into account when we do calculations like this. Assuming Beltre’s signing bonus is paid out in even installments over the life of his contract, his annual salaries have been 11.4, 12.9, 12.9, and 13.4 MM. Using a 10% rate, the M’s have paid him a total of 58.4 MM. (If you think the rate is 7%, then it’s 55.9 MM.)
Dividing by the 13.5 wins, that’s 4.3 MM/win (or 4.1 if you like a 7% figure). So, Adrian Beltre hasn’t been so much of a bargain as he’s been exactly what his salary would indicate. A quality contract, but a huge bargain.
It’s clear that criticism of Beltre, particularly in the national press, has been overblown. Beltre’s been an outstanding defensive thirdbaseman and a good hitter given the context of his home park. He’s been a plus for the Mariners while he’s played for them. But I wouldn’t call it a “bargain” or “below-market”, unless I’m missing another piece of his value (possible, I’m not an M’s fan).
What’s sad is that most fans haven’t a clue how defense works. Which means that the loss of Beltre will mostly be assigned, in fans’ hearts, to the pitchers, who will suddenly start giving up a lot more hits on the left side of the infield. So our beleaguered pitching staff will be blamed for the failings of whatever stiff this godforsaken team ends up with out at third base. Tui, I suppose. Or Bloomquist.
Fire Chuck Armstrong now.
Perception being what it is, there’s no way to trade Adrian Beltre this off-season without selling low on him.
The M’s system being what it is, there’s no way to replace him without sacrificing a couple of wins next year.
Put those two facts together and no smart GM should trade him. What are the odds of us havinga smart GM? What are the odds of us having a smart GM who’s allowed to overrule Chuck Armstrong?
Slim and none. Remember Carlos Guillen.
He’s the most valuable player we’ve had at 3B since Edgar Martinez. And we’re going to cast him aside.
Sometimes this team makes me sad.
Colm,
While I completely and whole heartedly agree with everything you wrote…
You KNOW it is going to happen.
Just like Carlos Guillen trade, or many other dumb trades, once this Mariner FO gets a thought in their heads, it happens…no matter if the the new GM has a brain or not.
Heck, I bet this FO trades Beltre BEFORE the new GM is hired…
A relative bargain, yes, but not an inordinately great bargain. And when you consider that this is pretty much the very best deal Bavasi managed, it’s a rather damning indictment of his performance (Bavasi’s, not Beltre’s, I mean).
I do hope Beltre stays around another year. He might bring some return in trade, but I don’t see them getting full value.
sbaxamusa:
I appreciate the sentiment, taking into account inflation when evaluating the contract over 4 years.
However, I was confused by this approach, getting a little pedantic here, by adding amounts to salaries already paid, to come up with a non-real, arbitrary amount. Beltre was not paid $56MM nor $58 MM. Rather the more appropriate approach is to inflation adjust the free agent value/cost per win in years past. So if it is $4.5 MM today, It was closer to $3.4MM per Win in 2005 (Assuming 10% inflation)
So Maybe Beltre’s value per win (Ave $3.7MM)was on par with the average Free agent cost in 2005, but he was a bargain, or of greater value in recent years.
We’ve had 4 players who have offensively been pretty consistent for the Mariners, Beltre, Ibanez, Lopez and Ichiro. Too bad that two of them most likely won’t return.
Adrian is one of my all-time favorites, up there with Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez.
I disagree with Evan, I can think of at least 1 3rd baseman since Edgar who was pretty good. David Bell played great defense and got a lot of clutch hits during the M’s 116 win season.
Adrian, if traded, will be missed and most likely won’t be replaced with someone of the same quality, not only as a player but as a man. He never made excuses for a bad day.
However, I was confused by this approach, getting a little pedantic here, by adding amounts to salaries already paid, to come up with a non-real, arbitrary amount. Beltre was not paid $56MM nor $58 MM. Rather the more appropriate approach is to inflation adjust the free agent value/cost per win in years past. So if it is $4.5 MM today, It was closer to $3.4MM per Win in 2005 (Assuming 10% inflation)
Yeah, I think this is probably the more correct way to do it. But the end result is probably close, if not equivalent.
If this year’s $FA/win is 4.5, then we have going back from 2008 to 2005: 4.5, 4.1, 3.7, 3.4. Given his salary, the M’s paid for 3, 3.1, 3.5, and 3.4 wins, or a total of 13 wins. Beltre gave them a surplus of 0.5 wins, or about $2 MM over the last four years.
Call this one a win for the market.
sbaxamusa
Thanks – Yep it does work out pretty close with either approach. For some reason, it was easier for me to wrap my head around the second approach.
I think I might cry.
I can see the following happening next year whether we trade Adrian or not. A healthy Adrian comes back and hits 40 or so HR’s. We then have to spend months hearing about how Adrian dogged it here for the beginning of the contract and how he’s only playing well now because “he’s in a contract year”. If I hear that once, I’ll be really sad.
I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer but shouldn’t that be “An Eulogy” not “A Eulogy.”
IF they could get something of equal value for Adrian, then maybe they could move Lopez to third as that would be a smaller shift on the defensive spectrum for him than all the way to left field or firstbase. IF they could then come up with a good defensive second baseman who could hit just a little, then it might work out OK.
That’s two mighty big IF’s in there, though.
Nope.
Thank you for this post, Dave. I’ve loved Adrian since his time with the Dodgers, and have always hated the ignorant “bust” criticism. Adrian’s a very good player who plays hard, plays though injury, and is a class act. The irony is he’s exactly the “gamer” the media pretends they want, but since he had one great season, gets paid a lot of money, and isn’t white, no one notices.
It would be a shame for the M’s to sell low on Beltre after how they handled the Washburn negotiations.
A shame, but not a surprise.
C. Cheetah said: “Heck, I bet this FO trades Beltre BEFORE the new GM is hired…”
Now that would be really brilliant, just something Chuckie and Howie would endorse. Trade a guy who’s still in a shoulder sling and a hand cast, while his value is absolutely at rock bottom because he’s “injured and in rehab”.
I just like the guy. I know “good in the clubhouse” and “team leader” get short shrift around here, but I don’t see who will be a vocal team leader if both Raul and Adrian are gone.
OTOH, the thing that makes me willing to move him while there’s something to be gained is “Agent: Scott Boras”.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Adrian. I love the fact that for four years third base, which had been a problem since Edgar encountered the soft batter’s box at BC Place Stadium in spring training, 1993, was a strength and not a problem. I love the look on his face when he’s locked in at the plate. I love the way he will find a way like a contortionist to make a difficult throw off-balance or on his knees, and will whip the same seed to first he will on a routine play.
But if Adrian leaving is part of a real plan, and includes some serious return for the trade, I’m all for it. Needless to say, that implies a competent GM with no interference from Chuck and Howie, who will hopefully be hanging gold watches in their new offices nearer to Nintendo than Edgar Martinez Drive.
“I just like the guy. I know “good in the clubhouse†and “team leader†get short shrift around here, but I don’t see who will be a vocal team leader if both Raul and Adrian are gone.”
With all due respect, who cares?
In terms of all of the holes that need filling on this roster ‘gritty vocal clubhouse leader’ is so far down the list it scarcely bears mentioning.