Felix 9-19 start in one graph
Looking at the Pitch FX data for yesterday, I wanted to do another series of graphs showing what Felix’s stuff looked like, and I don’t think you need them at all.
In the first inning of yesterday’s game, Felix threw three fastballs to Buck. Then two fastballs to Cunningham. Then two fastballs, two “splitters” and two fastballs. Looking at the list, I immediately saw a huge almost-purely fastball streak, and counted it. Of his first 33 pitches, seven weren’t identified as fastballs (and then he threw two changes).
Here’s a version of the graph Dave’s offered a couple times:
That’s the only thing you really need to know about the start. At about pitch 50 after Kurt Suzuki singled to left (fastball-slider-single), Felix started to mix his stuff up. The A’s didn’t score again.
To that point, Felix had 3k (two of Cust), and every other batter put the ball in play — Buck for a home run. 14 hitters, 3 strikeouts, 11 balls hit. After he starts to mix the pitches, he faces 17, strikes out five, walks one, and 11 balls are put in play.
Felix throwing almost nothing but fastballs is a pretty good pitcher. Felix mixing his pitches is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Why he, and the team, continue to think that he should work on establishing and relying on the fastball is beyond me. The scouting report on him must be “he’ll throw almost nothing but gas for three, maybe four innings — key up for that fastball and hack, hack, hack, because this defense sucks and the ball will find a hole.”
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Why he, and the team, continue to think that he should work on establishing and relying on the fastball is beyond me.
machismo?
Hopefully Felix will learn, after some maturation, that he’s obviously a much better pitcher when he mixes it up.
Honestly, I haven’t wathced many games this year. Not only because we play horrible baseball that is gut-wrenching to watch, but also because I work 3-11pm and don’t have a DVR. Derek, what is your opinion on Felix’s fastball? I’ve heard a plethora of opinions, ranging from spectacular to mediocre.
JLP from what I recall the authors of this site typically describe both two and four seam fastballs as + pitches (or at absolute worst neutral), but not his best pitches. To survive on primarily fastballs as a starter is almost impossible, and he isn’t in that range of elite “I blinked, did I miss the pitch?” flamethrowers with huge movement.
It’s not that the fastballs are a bad pitch, it’s just that they’re very hittable if the batter is sitting on one. Get the hitters to tie themselves up a few times with an ugly curve and you you can break their nerve.
I don’t know if Felix’s fastballs are + pitches or not, but I do know that both USSM and LL have repeatedly drawn attention to their lack of (a) movement and (b) location. If Felix could command these pitches and/or add some movement to them, maybe he would get by better doing what he does. But his fastballs are really straight, and he doesn’t locate them well. Raw velocity only counts for so much.
Hey, that’s kind of like little league but with guys with better bat speed…
and sadly, they do seem to have brainwashed him because he repeats the party-line when interviewed, reminding us of layer #3 in the off-season:
GM –> Field Manager –> Pitching coach