Comments on: Game 159, Angels at Mariners

By: msb

msb — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 06:16:24 +0000

my, it did get quiet after I had to head out.

By: Pedro

Pedro — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:59:07 +0000

Colm,

Yes, that’s right, the particular amount of wins that I mentioned isn’t possible (I should have just looked that up to avoid it). However, as I said, it’s not the number that I’m getting at, but the proximity.

Adjust it for an actual possibility:

M’s finish 60-102:

Nats go 59-102 (Nats pick first)
Had the game been played, the Nats still would have picked first whether they won (60-102) or lost (59-103).

Nats go 60-101 (M’s pick first)
Had the game been played, the Nats would have needed to win (61-101) for the M’s to retain the first pick. Lose (60-102), and they end up tying the M’s, winning by tiebreaker (last year’s record).

You can also rehash it with plugging in the M’s going 61-101 and Nats finishing at 60-101 or 61-100.

Sound better?

Looking at it another way, the cancellation of the Washington/Florida game tonight caused the M’s to only need two of (M’s losses + Nat’s wins) out of the six combined remaining games, rather than three in seven (six + the one cancelled game).

Which means, they could actually “clinch” tomorrow.

Edit: I must have been typing that for a long time!

By: Colm

Colm — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:45:10 +0000

Now I have.
There are sixteen possible combinations of results for the Mariners and Nationals – each team can win 0, 1, 2 or 3 games.

Of those 16 combinations only 3 result in the Mariners finishing with a better record than the Nationals.

Those three are:
1: M’s go 3-0; Nat’s go 0-3
2: M’s go 3-0; Nat’s go 1-2
3: M’s go 2-1; Nat’s go 0-3

By: Colm

Colm — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:31:15 +0000

Pedro, but the Nationals are already at 59-99. I do think their not playing today increases the Mariners’ chances of comind dead last, but your math must be off.

That said, I haven’t parsed all the options.

By: Vortex

Vortex — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:26:13 +0000

Would they make the Nats play the final game if it could force a tie with the M’s and change the draft standings? Or is that only if a playoff chance is on the line any missed games are made up?

By: wlad

wlad — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:18:28 +0000

Sweet, we moved up a half game in the Strasburg standings

By: JerBear

JerBear — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 05:07:42 +0000

This has got to be in the running for lowest comment count on a game thread.

Not that it’s surprising.

By: Pedro

Pedro — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:44:08 +0000

with the Nats game being canceled today (with no make up) it now looks possible to win / lose the Strasburg race by a half game. That would be the ultimate kick in the groin after such a lovely season.

Actually this situation only helps the M’s toward getting the top pick. Say the M’s lose out (58-104). Doesn’t really matter what their record is, only the closeness of the Nats, but I’ll just use that for simplicity.

Nats go 57-104 (Nats pick first)
Had the game been played, the Nats still would have picked first whether they won (58-104) or lost (57-105).

Nats go 58-103 (M’s pick first)
Had the game been played, the Nats would have needed to win (59-103) for the M’s to retain the first pick. Lose (58-104), and they end up tying the M’s, winning by tiebreaker (last year’s record).

It’s actually a relatively huge break for the Mariners in terms of getting the top pick. It can’t hurt them, but it might help in that it swings one of the possible tie scenarios to a half-game “win” for them.

By: terry

terry — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:36:02 +0000

Hey, no fair, The Nats are pulling a McCain.

By: dgarnett

dgarnett — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:24:49 +0000

Since this is a game thread… with the Nats game being canceled today (with no make up) it now looks possible to win / lose the Strasburg race by a half game. That would be the ultimate kick in the groin after such a lovely season.