Comments on: Reload: The Offseason Plan To Win in 2009 http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/ Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:59:59 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: SonOfZavaras http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302287 SonOfZavaras Sat, 04 Oct 2008 04:43:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302287 I don't like Dave's reload plan, in general. I think Lopez is close to being a legit 20-HR guy, maybe more. To me, he makes more sense than Nelson at first base. Balentien might not be a bad trade- I love the guy, but I think Halman has a better ceiling and will be ready by 2010. I like Furcal, too....but he's quite injury-prone and could block several prospects (notably Triunfel, who I think will go totally <em>wunderkind</em> on us all next year) if he's there for 3 years. I've always liked Affeldt, and would welcome him very readily onto the team as a FA pick-up. But I DO NOT like the idea of Milton Bradley in a Mariner uniform. Not for $12 mil. Not even for 4 mil. Too much blasted baggage, too hair-trigger a temper. We may need cajones as a team, but not the borderline-psychotic kind. The thing that makes all this projection tough is knowing the ceilings of what young talent we've gotten banging on the door. Personally, I think Tuiasasopo will be in the Morgan Ensberg style of third-sacker, where he'll give you what he's got, but he'll struggle to hit .250, and get enough hard swings to nail 20 into the seats- with barely-average-defense (if he works at it). Not ready 'til 2010. I think everyone is understimating Valbuena, and Balentien will become a .270-25-90+ RBI guy- good numbers but not a superstar. And it'll take him 'til 2010-2011 to get there, plus you'll always deal with at least 110 SO from him. Clement I have little doubt about- .290 with no leg hits, enough power for 20 every year. I even think his defense- while not Benchian- has been better than advertised. That's what I think we'll wind up with in these younger players. Will it be enough? I don’t like Dave’s reload plan, in general. I think Lopez is close to being a legit 20-HR guy, maybe more. To me, he makes more sense than Nelson at first base. Balentien might not be a bad trade- I love the guy, but I think Halman has a better ceiling and will be ready by 2010. I like Furcal, too….but he’s quite injury-prone and could block several prospects (notably Triunfel, who I think will go totally wunderkind on us all next year) if he’s there for 3 years.

I’ve always liked Affeldt, and would welcome him very readily onto the team as a FA pick-up.

But I DO NOT like the idea of Milton Bradley in a Mariner uniform. Not for $12 mil. Not even for 4 mil. Too much blasted baggage, too hair-trigger a temper. We may need cajones as a team, but not the borderline-psychotic kind.

The thing that makes all this projection tough is knowing the ceilings of what young talent we’ve gotten banging on the door. Personally, I think Tuiasasopo will be in the Morgan Ensberg style of third-sacker, where he’ll give you what he’s got, but he’ll struggle to hit .250, and get enough hard swings to nail 20 into the seats- with barely-average-defense (if he works at it). Not ready ’til 2010.

I think everyone is understimating Valbuena, and Balentien will become a .270-25-90+ RBI guy- good numbers but not a superstar. And it’ll take him ’til 2010-2011 to get there, plus you’ll always deal with at least 110 SO from him.

Clement I have little doubt about- .290 with no leg hits, enough power for 20 every year. I even think his defense- while not Benchian- has been better than advertised.

That’s what I think we’ll wind up with in these younger players. Will it be enough?

]]> By: SDRE http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302213 SDRE Fri, 03 Oct 2008 06:39:43 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302213 Trade Beltre, Betencourt, and Bedard for Andre Ethier and James McDonald Trade Clement and Washburn for Prince Fielder Trade Carlos Silva, Wlad Balentien and Jose Lopez for Luis Castillo and Ryan Church Sign Furcal Sign Milton Bradley Ichiro CF Furcal SS Fielder 1B Bradley DH Ethier LF Ryan Church RF Johjima/ Johnson C Tui 3B Luis Castillo/ Valbuena 2B Felix McDonald RR Smith Morrow F-bend/ Dickey/ FA Trade Beltre, Betencourt, and Bedard for Andre Ethier and James McDonald

Trade Clement and Washburn for Prince Fielder

Trade Carlos Silva, Wlad Balentien and Jose Lopez for Luis Castillo and Ryan Church

Sign Furcal

Sign Milton Bradley

Ichiro CF
Furcal SS
Fielder 1B
Bradley DH
Ethier LF
Ryan Church RF
Johjima/ Johnson C
Tui 3B
Luis Castillo/ Valbuena 2B

Felix
McDonald
RR Smith
Morrow
F-bend/ Dickey/ FA

]]> By: msb http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302207 msb Fri, 03 Oct 2008 01:58:25 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302207 <blockquote>I don’t blame the players. I blame the management that brought them together. And the management that can’t part with a player. </blockquote> well, they seem to have parted with a lot of players the last few years-- most mid-season

I don’t blame the players. I blame the management that brought them together. And the management that can’t part with a player.

well, they seem to have parted with a lot of players the last few years– most mid-season

]]> By: andrew23 http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302205 andrew23 Fri, 03 Oct 2008 01:22:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302205 I'm sure the Twins would prefer the Boston model. Give them an extra $80M a year for salaries, and they'll carry it out. I’m sure the Twins would prefer the Boston model. Give them an extra $80M a year for salaries, and they’ll carry it out.

]]> By: Wishhiker http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302204 Wishhiker Thu, 02 Oct 2008 23:57:31 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302204 I'm waiting for the “this team can’t win, here’s how to rebuild” post because it seems more reasonable to me. I have to concede there is a possibility that they could win enough to make it somewhat worthwhile (playoffs maybe 10%, ALCS much lower and slim to none on a WS.) I don't think it's worth giving up the % chance at improving a team that's hopefully much closer in 3-5 years by losing picks now to have a slight chance at the playoffs next year. A year from now I think this situation is far more viable than it is now. If only this same argument had held Bavasi's hand last year this could be the right year. No Silva, Bedard, Cairo, Wilkerson, Baek instead of Wells (WTF was that anyway, favors to other teams now and not just players?) jettisoning Reitsma and Ramirez before guaranteeing them more money and no Johjima extension. I’m waiting for the “this team can’t win, here’s how to rebuild” post because it seems more reasonable to me. I have to concede there is a possibility that they could win enough to make it somewhat worthwhile (playoffs maybe 10%, ALCS much lower and slim to none on a WS.) I don’t think it’s worth giving up the % chance at improving a team that’s hopefully much closer in 3-5 years by losing picks now to have a slight chance at the playoffs next year. A year from now I think this situation is far more viable than it is now. If only this same argument had held Bavasi’s hand last year this could be the right year.

No Silva, Bedard, Cairo, Wilkerson, Baek instead of Wells (WTF was that anyway, favors to other teams now and not just players?) jettisoning Reitsma and Ramirez before guaranteeing them more money and no Johjima extension.

]]> By: loganwol http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302202 loganwol Thu, 02 Oct 2008 22:14:36 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302202 Can we stop all this and just reload through the draft, international signings? Kidding ourselves that we would be contender 3 years ago is what go us here in the first place. Imagine if were in the basement, we might have gotten Longoria! Sigh!! I am looking at the Rays score today and can't help but dream. :) Can we stop all this and just reload through the draft, international signings?

Kidding ourselves that we would be contender 3 years ago is what go us here in the first place.

Imagine if were in the basement, we might have gotten Longoria! Sigh!! I am looking at the Rays score today and can’t help but dream. :)

]]> By: joser http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302201 joser Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:43:31 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302201 And the fact remains, as pointed out earlier, that Ichiro is not going to net the team anywhere near as much as you seemed to think, and that he remains uniquely valuable to the M's. So he shouldn't be at the top of your list to trade even if "blowing up the team" is the strategy you want to take. In any case, Dave's said he's going to do a rebuild post, and that would be the appropriate time and place to debate the fine details of such a strategy. And the fact remains, as pointed out earlier, that Ichiro is not going to net the team anywhere near as much as you seemed to think, and that he remains uniquely valuable to the M’s. So he shouldn’t be at the top of your list to trade even if “blowing up the team” is the strategy you want to take. In any case, Dave’s said he’s going to do a rebuild post, and that would be the appropriate time and place to debate the fine details of such a strategy.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302200 eponymous coward Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:53:12 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302200 <em>It seems to me you have to deal them before they have reached enough service to dictate the terms.</em> That's one way of looking at it. The Twins, essentially, have that model, where Santana gets dealt, Silva, Jones and Hunter walk, and so on. Basically, there's complete roster turnover after 6-7 years or so, among the better players. On the other hand, you might note the Twins don't draw great (though a new park may help), and while they contend regularly for division titles in the mid 80-low 90 win range while turning over their talent, they don't really build superior teams like the Red Sox do- in large part because once their players hit their peak, it's time to send them away. So, really, there's not one way you HAVE to build the team- and that's Dave's point. It seems to me you have to deal them before they have reached enough service to dictate the terms.

That’s one way of looking at it. The Twins, essentially, have that model, where Santana gets dealt, Silva, Jones and Hunter walk, and so on. Basically, there’s complete roster turnover after 6-7 years or so, among the better players.

On the other hand, you might note the Twins don’t draw great (though a new park may help), and while they contend regularly for division titles in the mid 80-low 90 win range while turning over their talent, they don’t really build superior teams like the Red Sox do- in large part because once their players hit their peak, it’s time to send them away. So, really, there’s not one way you HAVE to build the team- and that’s Dave’s point.

]]> By: gottago http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302199 gottago Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:43:51 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302199 I don't blame the players. I blame the management that brought them together. And the management that can't part with a player. I acknowledge that luck and timing all play a part in building a team, but I think that the Mariners can try and build an organization that gives young players a chance, lets those who can, flourish, and then deal them and start over instead of trying to lock them up for another 3-4-5 years as they head into their 30's. It seems to me you have to deal them before they have reached enough service to dictate the terms. And as ARod has shown, dictating terms (including going to a contender) and delivering a world championship are two different things. I don’t blame the players. I blame the management that brought them together. And the management that can’t part with a player. I acknowledge that luck and timing all play a part in building a team, but I think that the Mariners can try and build an organization that gives young players a chance, lets those who can, flourish, and then deal them and start over instead of trying to lock them up for another 3-4-5 years as they head into their 30’s.

It seems to me you have to deal them before they have reached enough service to dictate the terms. And as ARod has shown, dictating terms (including going to a contender) and delivering a world championship are two different things.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/reload-the-offseason-plan-to-win-in-2008/comment-page-2/#comment-302198 eponymous coward Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:31:03 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6301#comment-302198 Right, but you've yet to make the argument that "date Ichiro and dump him" is the best solution. Dave's entire argument here is that blowing the team up isn't necessary, that there is a path to a decent team in 2008, and, given that there's some evidence that the Angels aren't really a 99 win true talent team- they are plus 12 on their Pythagorean record; last year's M's were plus 9- the argument that putting an 85-88 win team on the table in the West could get you lucky isn't unreasonable. One might also note, for instance, that Eric Chavez is still in an A's uniform. It's not unreasonable to build your team around superior, talented players like Ichiro, Felix and Beltre- the problem is that the Mariners have made lousy decisions on supporting cast, not the stars. But, as Bill James pointed out, bad teams (and, I suppose, some of their fans) blame their stars. Right, but you’ve yet to make the argument that “date Ichiro and dump him” is the best solution. Dave’s entire argument here is that blowing the team up isn’t necessary, that there is a path to a decent team in 2008, and, given that there’s some evidence that the Angels aren’t really a 99 win true talent team- they are plus 12 on their Pythagorean record; last year’s M’s were plus 9- the argument that putting an 85-88 win team on the table in the West could get you lucky isn’t unreasonable.

One might also note, for instance, that Eric Chavez is still in an A’s uniform. It’s not unreasonable to build your team around superior, talented players like Ichiro, Felix and Beltre- the problem is that the Mariners have made lousy decisions on supporting cast, not the stars. But, as Bill James pointed out, bad teams (and, I suppose, some of their fans) blame their stars.

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