Thiel and Lincoln
Art Thiel spends some quality time with Howard Lincoln and asks a lot of questions. There’s actually some good stuff in his answers, so it’s worth reading. Basic summary:
They liked the results Gillick gave them (no world series appearances, destroyed farm system, WOO!) and didn’t like the results Bavasi gave them, so they’re going to try to find someone who gets better results. No mention of any change in process that might lead to better results, of course.
When given a direct chance to give credit to the A’s for their success, Lincoln avoids doing so and instead talks about the Twins. The M’s have never really acknowledged that the A’s are just way, way better at this running a baseball team thing, and they probably never will.
Can’t evaluate the Erik Bedard trade as a disaster “until it plays out”. Again with the judge-strictly-by-results philosophy, which is one of the main reasons this organization is about 20 years behind the rest of baseball.
They won’t trade Ichiro.
There’s not much else we can say until we see who they hire – hopefully the new GM understands that the processes need changing if the results are going to improve. You know what, I’m just going to steal Paul DePodesta’s success matrix:
The Mariners are in the lower right hand corner. The goal is to be in the upper left hand corner. You can’t just hope to shift left, Howard – you need to move up too.
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For sports fans, GMs, whoever, it really comes down to a basic understanding of probability. People have this weird tendency to think the outcome that occurred was also the most likely outcome. Meaning, they use the results to validate the process. Also, most people don’t want to acknowledge how big of a role luck plays in the results.
That interview is a depressing, disheartening read.
After reading, I have very little confidence these guys have learned anything, or that we have much hope they’ll make the right decisions in the future. What a mess.
Here’s hoping for a miracle…
That chart is poetic awesome.
This chart needs another square just for the Mariners: Epic Fail.
Howard Lincoln believes Chuck Armstrong is a baseball guy?
The Mariners are being led by The Three Stooges minus Moe.
Lincoln reveals himself in his answer to the very first question. Thiel asks why the fans should trust him, and the answer is that he’s been given the job by the board. That’s not an answer to Thiel’s question, but it is entirely revealing of Lincoln’s mindset from day one. All he cares about are his bosses; if not a single fan showed up and he still had his job, he’d be entirely satisfied.
Seriously, that was heartbreaking to read…that someone is so entrenched in their position that they neither seek out reasons for what is happening around them nor is there any motivating force to divert their influence over the franchise.
Winning is good. We need someone who wins.
That’s such an intellectually bankrupt decision making process.
I half expect them to hire David Blaine as the new GM.
He gets things done! His track record has been pretty successful over the years! He’ll go “presto chango–PENNANT!” and that’s all I need to know!
The one excellent point that Lincoln made was in his explanation about the “interference” of Japanese ownership. He was obviously defending his boss. Yet he was accurate in detailing the truly minimal involvement that the owner has had and how the owner has a pretty good track record when he does involve himself.
I just wanted to stare at that.
Is it too late for them to interview Sarah Palin for GM?
It’s pretty obvious to everyone EXCEPT the people that matter that these two guys shouldn’t even have a job in baseball.
Until they are gone, I really don’t think it matters who the GM or managaer are.
I hope I’m wrong, but I truly believe we will suck until Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum are gone…
my god, it’s amazing what Nellie doesn’t know about this team.
the general consensus of the radioheads is that no self-respecting GM would come to a team where the owner interferes. Because that exists no where else, apparently.
It’s clear that in Lincoln’s mind the model baseball operation is the Twins.
We have studied how Minnesota has gone about doing a first-class job of baseball operations. They do better jobs in scouting, player development, operating the minor league system, and evaluating talent that can reach the major leagues than we do. You’re darn right we’ve learned. The new GM we expect will do a better job than we have done, not just as (sic)t he major league level but across all aspects of our baseball operations.
Those are interesting comments, because those are the same areas that were Bavasi’s strengths and are the areas in which the Mariners have made the most progress since Gillick left. If they truly hew to those objectives, they won’t hire another Gillick. They will, in fact, select a guy who focuses on process. But the process they want to emulate is Minnesota, not Oakland.
There’s also the base of a classic business blunder in here. Sometimes when an organization struggles it tries to right itself by focusing on what it does well, then trying to get even better at doing those things it does well, while failing to address the areas in which it is stumbling. That response particularly occurs when the basic business milieu has changed, and the organization is entrenched in the old format. The organization has a hard time switching to the new context. To take the examples of DEC or Wang confronting the desktop PC revolution, the responses of those companies were to focus more intensely on building better desktop terminal systems more cheaply and efficiently. Had either of those companies simply embraced the PC and shifted to the new architecture the computing landscape today would be totally different.
If I were a GM candidate that saw this article as I was preparing for an interview, I would beef up my presentation on “scouting, player development, operating the minor league system, and evaluating talent that can reach the major leagues”.
Bavasi one time referred to scouting assessment vs. numeric analysis as “squat vs. quant”. Looks like the Mariners GM job goes to whichever candidate is best at squatting.
Dave, what additional questions would you like to have been asked?
Dave actually wrote about total control earlier. Aside from Beane, there is no GM who has absolute control. You think Cashman could trade Jeter. Angelos won’t let the Orioles GM trade Brian Roberts without a say-so. The Astros owner seemed to control the terms of Biggio’s contract. I could go on.
KJR guys don’t know too much about baseball.
no, but it points to a popular assumption (by hosts & listerners alike) that because someone once played baseball, they therefore know all about the game and a team’s inner workings– even if their knowledge of the team comes of hanging out in the press box waiting for the postgame show to start.
[snerk]
That is a truly depressing article. He sounds so clueless…”I’m qualified ’cause my bosses said so…” wow…
I will give him ONE point for stating that the Bedard situation has nothing to do with his personality but with the injury.
The Bedard trade is the worst in franchise history, but it’s because we gave up way too much talent for a broken pitcher, not because we brought in a “bad” personality…
We’re never going to get better.
Let me put it this way: Lincoln “may not have some of the necessities” to be, let’s say, a team CEO, or, perhaps, to hire a general manager.
I just don’t think he’s got it in him. He literally does not know what he’s doing. He thinks he’s running a baseball team, but he’s not. The Mariners at this point are not a baseball team.
It’s not that he’s not smart enough. It’s that he’s doing the wrong job in the wrong way. Twenty years behind the rest of baseball is dead on. Lincoln is still trying to get us the best possible deals on typewriter balls.
[moved to today's GM post]
When asked what quality he looked for in his generals Napoleon Bonaparte is supposed to have replied, “Luck”. But I think Napoleon was making a joke. Howard isn’t.
What are the odds that those criteria include “proven” and “veteran”?
Howard, would you have the cajones to call Lou a liar to his face? Becuase a lot of people would pay good money to watch that.
Which brings me to a whole other discussion about equitable structures for sound corporate governance. Why so many companies allow their CEOs to chair the board of governors that is supposed to supervise the CEO baffles me. It’s absolutely an invitation to corruption and incompetence.
So it sounds like Howard and Chuck are staying aboard. Abandon ship!
Well, the problem here is that the chart is itself an example of results based analysis (for shame, DePo, for shame, but he can probably be excused since the chart is a tool for educating folks who believe in RBA…). It should be more like:
Good Process + Good Luck => Deserved Success
Good Process + Bad Luck => Temporary Setback
Bad Process + Good Luck => Unsustainable Success
Bad Process + Bad Luck => Your 2008 Seattle Mariners
Once again, Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong are modern versions of the Bourbon kings of France: they learn nothing, and they forget nothing.
However…
They will, in fact, select a guy who focuses on process. But the process they want to emulate is Minnesota, not Oakland.
Why is this bad? Minnesota since 2001 has had ONE season below .500 (and that was just barely under). They have a productive farm system, and have been willing to let guys like Lohse walk who clearly were on the verge of being overpaid. Yeah, they;ve lost guys like Santana, but overall, if the M’s ran things comparable to them, I’d be thrilled.
Just because someone isn’t a Billy Beane clone does NOT mean that’s a bad way to do things.
John 11:35
Ha.
Good comment. I didn’t intend to say that Minnesota was an inherently bad model. My “but” was a “but” of contrast, not of “protest”. Minnesota, of course, is an example that a successful operation can be built on “old school” approaches.
As I mentioned in my post, however, I’m troubled about Lincoln’s belief that Minnesota is the model to follow. In discussing Minnesota he appears to have decided that the Mariners key need is to become more like Minnesota. But the characteristics of Minnesota’s organization that he cites as exemplary are exactly the areas in which the Mariners are currently the strongest and in which they have made the most progress since Gillick left. Lincoln seems to have focused on remaining inefficiencies in the teams areas of strength as the team’s key weaknesses.
When an organization perceives its key strengths as its weaknesses, there are often problems lurking. Inherently, there are diminishing returns from extracting additional efficiencies from areas of high expertise. Meanwhile, areas that are not being attended to well present the most situations where significant improvements can be made with relative ease.
+++++
To draw another analogy, consider a company that is highly proficient in providing engineering and technical services, but is having difficulty growing and expanding. If the company is run by managers who are focused on project engineering and technology, those managers can easily believe the key to company growth is to get even better at developing and delivering technical services to clients. That follows from the belief that what the market demands is better quality services and products delivered at better prices.
Of course the other perspective is that the real problem is that the company doesn’t market itself effectively. The company’s technical services capabilities are fine; the company isn’t growing because not enough potential customers are familiar with the company’s services.
If a manager candidate is interviewed by the company and says that the problem is marketing, that person probably isn’t going to succeed, because that person isn’t giving the perspective that fits management assessment of the key problems. In fact, there is likely to be a substantial culture clash as the person pushing more marketing efforts clashes with people who fundamentally believe the company exists because of its technical skills, not its marketing skills.
++++++
That, I perceive, is analogous to the situation with the Mariners. It’s not that Minnesota is a bad model. It’s just that the process by which Minnesota is being lauded as a model is a bad process.
The Mariners, I fear, are looking at a good model for the wrong reasons. Which, of course, leaves them in the bottom row of the DePo matrix.
no, for me it is Hebrews 13:8
I don’t think anyone, including Dave, is insinuating that the Twins’ model is bad. I believe that the post is criticizing Lincoln for intentionally ignoring their division rival Oakland and failing to acknowledge that they and their methods are useful and successful.
After reading that interview, I’ll just say what I said to my co-worker: I don’t think I want to be a Mariner’s fan anymore.
That interview makes me wonder if Lincoln is capable of identifying any actual causal relationship or making any kind of valid comparison.
He seems to say that because they successfully addressed a business and political challenge 16 years ago, they are de facto qualified to make baseball decisions today.
Also missing is any real acknowledgement of his and Armstrong’s responsibility for the current state of affairs. He basically says that they hired a guy who did things they agreed with but which didn’t turn out well, so they must have hired the wrong guy. There is absolutely no self-questioning of the underlying principles and assumptions they held that led them to agree with Bavasi’s decisions and approach.
Enlightening and throughly depressing.
For all the talk about the Billy Beane A’s, they have the same number of WS appearances as we did under Gillick.
I’m not disagreeing with you wrt the fact that they *appear* to be better run, but if you’re going to do results-based analysis you have to acknowledge when it doesn’t go your way too.
The A’s have had no WS appearances, no WS rings, and have made it to the ALCS once, and were swept then. They’re also severely lacking power, which they will have to fix via either FA or a trade of pitchers. They’ve had two straight losing seasons.
The Twins are just as well managed a team as the A’s.
No one here is doing results based analysis.
And, look, if you can’t realize how well run the A’s are, you’ve got an analytical deficiency.
Howie sure has a strange idea of what “hot seat” means. I thought it meant that if you don’t succeed, you’re gone. All it means to him is that he continues to feel the pressure to do well, but if he doesn’t, okay.
Howard, when people read that you considered yourself on the hot seat, they assumed you meant that you’d be gone after a disaster of the epic proportions we just suffered through. To change the definition at this point just shows your honesty is on par with your ability manage a major league baseball franchise.
“…destroyed farm system…”
Pet peeve here:
I’m not saying Gillick was perfect, he most certainly wasn’t. He and his staff botched the draft, definitely, but he DIDN’T decimate the farm system:
Felix
Lopez
Balentien
RR-S
Sherrill
Choo
Asdrubal Cabrera
And that’s ignoring who was drafted under him:
Putz
Adam Jones
O’Flaherty
Etc.
Could it have been better, probably, sure. But considering that several of your favorite M’s players or trade chips (Felix, Jones) were acquired under Gillick’s regime, I wouldn’t say that Gillick decimated or destroyed the farm system. I won’t even give Gillick credit for Ichiro or Sasaki, because both of those guys came from above him. But Bob Engle is most certainly an important carryover from the Gillick era that has absolutely helped the health of this team’s farm system. If you’re going to fault Gillick for Mattox’s terrible drafts, then you have to give credit back to him for Engle’s international free agent acquisitions.
It could even be debated that Gillick left the system in better shape (at least with near-MLB-ready talent) than Bavasi did.
I’m not saying I want Gillick back, but I’m just tired of hearing people say that he “DESTROYED” the farm system. You should thank him for Felix, at the very least…
Ugh, after reading Stincoln’s clueless ramble it’s ever more obvious that this team is SO utterly screwed.
There are a plethora of stupid comments by Lincoln to parse.
The one that floored me was equating Ichiro with Johjima, in terms of not trading them.
On the radio this morning, Nellie clearly stated that Perlozzo was never contacted by anyone in the Mariners’ organization about Bedard. Perlozzo only managed the guy!
No, it can’t Paul. I know this is one of your pet peeves, but like Felix being overrated, you’re wrong.
Gillick installed Mattox as the scouting director, and instituted some policies that combined to create some of the most ridiculously awful drafts in the history of baseball. Yes, Bob Engle signed some good players, but there’s no contesting that the state of the organization when Gillick left was a total disaster, thanks almost entirely to his decisions.
He handed his successors a disastrously awful roster full of old players and basically nothing to replace them. Felix became useful about 3 years after he left. Choo is just now becoming useful – five years later. Cabrera, four years later. Jones, four years later.
Sorry, but that’s not leaving a good farm system in place. He eviscerated the foundation of the franchise in order to try to win while he was in charge. We’re where we are in large part thanks to Pat Gillick. I know there are a couple Gillick loyalists who are friendly with some members of the blogosphere, but they don’t get to rewrite history.
Poetic justice. Best description possible of this season.
Too bad people (and you know who I mean) can’t distinguish it from bad break because there’s a whole lot of territory between them.
But the characteristics of Minnesota’s organization that he cites as exemplary are exactly the areas in which the Mariners are currently the strongest and in which they have made the most progress since Gillick left.
Actually? I would disagree- the Mariners DO NOT do a good job of getting their MLB talent from their farm system, and the Twins do. If the Mariners had a farm system like the Twins and a similar mindset, the 2008 rotation would have looked something like Felix, Bedard, Dickey, Baek, and one of RRS or Morrow, perhaps (either that or Bedard would have never gone in the first place).
There’s a reason why Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva have ridiculous contracts from OTHER teams, but the Twins are playing a 163rd game.
I would argue the Twins understand “replacement level” far, FAR better than the M’s do (granted, salary constraints play a role in this). They also put a team out there that isn’t chock full of defensive incompetence, and THAT has something to do with understanding “replacement level”. If senior Mariner management can find a GM who gets these two concepts alone, and they do the scouting/development right, they’d be in much better shape.
eponymous coward, FTW.
Going back to what Lincoln cited about the Twins:
“They do better jobs in scouting, player development, operating the minor league system, and evaluating talent that can reach the major leagues than we do.”
I think those are the current strengths of the Mariners organization. Under Bavasi each of those areas has improved greatly.
The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent. They have consistently overpaid for “proven MLB players”, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.
Your contention seems to be that the Twins do a better job of getting that talent to the major league roster; I don’t disagree. But that’s not among the items that Lincoln listed.
I would also contend that the Mariners are far less adept than the Twins at assessing minor league talent within other organizations and trading for that talent. But again, that trait is not among the areas cited by Lincoln.
The aspects of the Minnesota organization that Lincoln cites are the Mariners strengths. But the aspects that differentiate the Twins from the Mariners are not on his list.
Gillick has also produced back to back playoff teams in Philadelphia, in a not so easy NL East divison (competing with the Mets who spend a lot and Braves who have always overachieved under Cox and Marlins who always play well with limited resources).
Gillick may have depleted Phillies farm system also (I have no idea), but with respect to “win now” philosophy, he has consistently got the job done in 3 different cities – Toronto, Seattle and now Philadelphia.
Gillick >>>>> Bavasi (and probably many others). He may not be Theo Epstein or Billy Beane, but gets the job done. And has 2 WS rings and 3 different playoff teams in different eras to show for it.
One thing we can take from this is that the new GM will be told in no uncertain terms, that Kenji Johjima is an untouchable. I wonder who crosses themselves off the list when they’re told that.
The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent. They have consistently overpaid for “proven MLB players”, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.
But if the Mariners understood minor league talent’s ability to perform at the major league level as well as the Twins, why would they sign Carlos Silva instead of keeping Cha Seung Baek? Because they like wasting 48 million over 4 years? I think you’re making an artificial distinction here: the M’s suck at assessing talent compared to the Twins, PERIOD. Remember- the Twins let him walk because they could replace him from within their system (and realistically, they weren’t going to spend $48 million for a replaceable player). The M’s didn’t think they had valid options, so they wrote a check.
Go look at the Twins roster and see how much of it is home grown. Compare and contrast with the M’s roster.
Or, to put this another way: 1B is a VERY easy positions to grow adequate players for- basically, the requirement is “hit and don’t field like Dick Stuart”. Guys like Carlos Pena, Ken Phelps, Ryan Howard and Bucky Jacobsen regularly get blocked and consigned to minor league careers when they have ability to play on the ML level. The M’s only reasonable prospect from within the system for 1B is a failed catcher. Before THAT, it was Tino Martinez. That’s what, 16 years between decent major league players at a position where replacement level is something like .260/.330/.450? That’s completely indefensible.
The bottom line is if the M’s bring in somebody who actually understands the philosophy the Twins use (developing from within is preferable to spending gobs of cash on free agents; here’s how we do this), they WILL be better off. Productivity of your minor league system is the number one reason why your team will succeed and fail, and, yes, the Mariners can learn from the Twins on this.
Also, I submit that if Jeff Clement had been coming up as a Twin instead of a Mariner, he would be at 1B already or out of the organization in a trade. There’s no way the Twins would bring up a player who’s just that fundamentally unsound at a key defensive position- they would likely just go “OK, he’s a 1B, this isn’t working”, or trade him.
So I would even dispute that the M’s are as strong as the Twins are in their minor league system development.
There are lessons the M’s could take from all of the successful franchises in baseball. What Lincoln’s interview reveals is that he’s not a deep enough thinker to understand which ones. The M’s made the maximum possible error in their self-evaluation last offseason. I’d want someone to explain what their evaluation of the M’s was and why they would have handled it differently.
I would posit that Lincoln doesn’t have to understand all of that. HE doesn’t have to be a baseball man. He just has to hire one…which is the same for baseball execs, anyway, since the CEO is rarely a top flight baseball man.
I think it goes deeper that this in that he may not be a great executive. Period. Bailing out Nintendo America is an accomplishment—though it may be more a fact of being less incompetent than the founder’s son-in-law.
And this is something I think permeates the organization. This kind of suckitude is rarely the result of one or two people; there were a lot of people that checked off on last winter’s decisions…
Yo yo yo…. Total control.. a little control… I don’t care…but what I do care about are 3 people focused on the same thing! It’s not if Armstrong & Lincoln are “baseball people” or not (although I’d prefer someone that at least competed at some college level), it’s if they want to be “baseball people.” From the way they talk about the M’s and what they want from a GM it seems obvious that the focus is misplaced. Or more appropriately, there is no common vision. Ok, more corporate bs I can’t stand.
But the point is — if the front office is going to meddle, will they at least listen to the GM and let him (or her – but I’m not sure what men’s college team she played for) put a plan in place and work it for 3 years.
I cannot figure out why they did not dump Bavasi after 3 years? I think a person deserves a chance to prove that they can manage the organization so that progress is shown. Not overnight, but some sustainable, long-term progress.
And do not re-sign Raul and see if some club will take Ichicro and Johjima, too.