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	<title>Comments on: Thiel and Lincoln</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: gottago</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-2/#comment-302066</link>
		<dc:creator>gottago</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 03:31:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302066</guid>
		<description>Yo yo yo....  Total control.. a little control... I don&#039;t care...but what I do care about are 3 people focused on the same thing!  It&#039;s not if Armstrong &amp; Lincoln are &quot;baseball people&quot; or not (although I&#039;d prefer someone that at least competed at some college level), it&#039;s if they want to be &quot;baseball people.&quot;  From the way they talk about the M&#039;s and what they want from a GM it seems obvious that the focus is misplaced.  Or more appropriately, there is no common vision.  Ok, more corporate bs I can&#039;t stand.

But the point is -- if the front office is going to meddle, will they at least listen to the GM and let him (or her - but I&#039;m not sure what men&#039;s college team she played for) put a plan in place and work it for 3 years.

I cannot figure out why they did not dump Bavasi after 3 years?  I think a person deserves a chance to prove that they can manage the organization so that progress is shown.  Not overnight, but some sustainable, long-term progress.

And do not re-sign Raul and see if some club will take Ichicro and Johjima, too.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yo yo yo&#8230;.  Total control.. a little control&#8230; I don&#8217;t care&#8230;but what I do care about are 3 people focused on the same thing!  It&#8217;s not if Armstrong &amp; Lincoln are &#8220;baseball people&#8221; or not (although I&#8217;d prefer someone that at least competed at some college level), it&#8217;s if they want to be &#8220;baseball people.&#8221;  From the way they talk about the M&#8217;s and what they want from a GM it seems obvious that the focus is misplaced.  Or more appropriately, there is no common vision.  Ok, more corporate bs I can&#8217;t stand.</p>
<p>But the point is &#8212; if the front office is going to meddle, will they at least listen to the GM and let him (or her &#8211; but I&#8217;m not sure what men&#8217;s college team she played for) put a plan in place and work it for 3 years.</p>
<p>I cannot figure out why they did not dump Bavasi after 3 years?  I think a person deserves a chance to prove that they can manage the organization so that progress is shown.  Not overnight, but some sustainable, long-term progress.</p>
<p>And do not re-sign Raul and see if some club will take Ichicro and Johjima, too.</p>
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		<title>By: gwangung</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302060</link>
		<dc:creator>gwangung</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:43:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302060</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;There are lessons the M’s could take from all of the successful franchises in baseball. What Lincoln’s interview reveals is that he’s not a deep enough thinker to understand which ones. The M’s made the maximum possible error in their self-evaluation last offseason. I’d want someone to explain what their evaluation of the M’s was and why they would have handled it differently.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I would posit that Lincoln doesn&#039;t have to understand all of that. HE doesn&#039;t have to be a baseball man. He just has to hire one...which is the same for baseball execs, anyway, since the CEO is rarely a top flight baseball man.

I think it goes deeper that this in that he may not be a great executive. Period. Bailing out Nintendo America is an accomplishment---though it  may be more a fact of being less incompetent than the founder&#039;s son-in-law.

And this is something I think permeates the organization. This kind of suckitude is rarely the result of one or two people; there were a lot of people that checked off on last winter&#039;s decisions...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>There are lessons the M’s could take from all of the successful franchises in baseball. What Lincoln’s interview reveals is that he’s not a deep enough thinker to understand which ones. The M’s made the maximum possible error in their self-evaluation last offseason. I’d want someone to explain what their evaluation of the M’s was and why they would have handled it differently.</p></blockquote>
<p>I would posit that Lincoln doesn&#8217;t have to understand all of that. HE doesn&#8217;t have to be a baseball man. He just has to hire one&#8230;which is the same for baseball execs, anyway, since the CEO is rarely a top flight baseball man.</p>
<p>I think it goes deeper that this in that he may not be a great executive. Period. Bailing out Nintendo America is an accomplishment&#8212;though it  may be more a fact of being less incompetent than the founder&#8217;s son-in-law.</p>
<p>And this is something I think permeates the organization. This kind of suckitude is rarely the result of one or two people; there were a lot of people that checked off on last winter&#8217;s decisions&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Breadbaker</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302058</link>
		<dc:creator>Breadbaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:50:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302058</guid>
		<description>There are lessons the M&#039;s could take from all of the successful franchises in baseball.  What Lincoln&#039;s interview reveals is that he&#039;s not a deep enough thinker to understand which ones. The M&#039;s made the maximum possible error in their self-evaluation last offseason.  I&#039;d want someone to explain what their evaluation of the M&#039;s was and why they would have handled it differently.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are lessons the M&#8217;s could take from all of the successful franchises in baseball.  What Lincoln&#8217;s interview reveals is that he&#8217;s not a deep enough thinker to understand which ones. The M&#8217;s made the maximum possible error in their self-evaluation last offseason.  I&#8217;d want someone to explain what their evaluation of the M&#8217;s was and why they would have handled it differently.</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302054</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:44:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302054</guid>
		<description>Also, I submit that if Jeff Clement had been coming up as a Twin instead of a Mariner, he would be at 1B already or out of the organization in a trade. There&#039;s no way the Twins would bring up a player who&#039;s just that fundamentally unsound at a key defensive position- they would likely just go &quot;OK, he&#039;s a 1B, this isn&#039;t working&quot;, or trade him.

So I would even dispute that the M&#039;s are as strong as the Twins are in their minor league system development.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, I submit that if Jeff Clement had been coming up as a Twin instead of a Mariner, he would be at 1B already or out of the organization in a trade. There&#8217;s no way the Twins would bring up a player who&#8217;s just that fundamentally unsound at a key defensive position- they would likely just go &#8220;OK, he&#8217;s a 1B, this isn&#8217;t working&#8221;, or trade him.</p>
<p>So I would even dispute that the M&#8217;s are as strong as the Twins are in their minor league system development.</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302051</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:33:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302051</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent. They have consistently overpaid for “proven MLB players”, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.&lt;/i&gt;

But if the Mariners understood minor league talent&#039;s ability to perform at the major league level as well as the Twins, why would they sign Carlos Silva instead of keeping Cha Seung Baek? Because they like wasting 48 million over 4 years? I think you&#039;re making an artificial distinction here: the M&#039;s suck at assessing talent compared to the Twins, PERIOD. Remember- the Twins let him walk because they could replace him from within their system (and realistically, they weren&#039;t going to spend $48 million for a replaceable player). The M&#039;s didn&#039;t think they had valid options, so they wrote a check.

Go look at the Twins roster and see how much of it is home grown. Compare and contrast with the M&#039;s roster.

Or, to put this another way: 1B is a VERY easy positions to grow adequate players for- basically, the requirement is &quot;hit and don&#039;t field like Dick Stuart&quot;. Guys like Carlos Pena, Ken Phelps, Ryan Howard and Bucky Jacobsen regularly get blocked and consigned to minor league careers when they have ability to play on the ML level. The M&#039;s only reasonable prospect from within the system for 1B is a failed catcher. Before THAT, it was Tino Martinez. That&#039;s what, 16 years between decent major league players at a position where replacement level is something like .260/.330/.450? That&#039;s completely indefensible.

The bottom line is if the M&#039;s bring in somebody who actually understands the philosophy the Twins use (developing from within is preferable to spending gobs of cash on free agents; here&#039;s how we do this), they WILL be better off. Productivity of your minor league system is the number one reason why your team will succeed and fail, and, yes, the Mariners can learn from the Twins on this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent. They have consistently overpaid for “proven MLB players”, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.</i></p>
<p>But if the Mariners understood minor league talent&#8217;s ability to perform at the major league level as well as the Twins, why would they sign Carlos Silva instead of keeping Cha Seung Baek? Because they like wasting 48 million over 4 years? I think you&#8217;re making an artificial distinction here: the M&#8217;s suck at assessing talent compared to the Twins, PERIOD. Remember- the Twins let him walk because they could replace him from within their system (and realistically, they weren&#8217;t going to spend $48 million for a replaceable player). The M&#8217;s didn&#8217;t think they had valid options, so they wrote a check.</p>
<p>Go look at the Twins roster and see how much of it is home grown. Compare and contrast with the M&#8217;s roster.</p>
<p>Or, to put this another way: 1B is a VERY easy positions to grow adequate players for- basically, the requirement is &#8220;hit and don&#8217;t field like Dick Stuart&#8221;. Guys like Carlos Pena, Ken Phelps, Ryan Howard and Bucky Jacobsen regularly get blocked and consigned to minor league careers when they have ability to play on the ML level. The M&#8217;s only reasonable prospect from within the system for 1B is a failed catcher. Before THAT, it was Tino Martinez. That&#8217;s what, 16 years between decent major league players at a position where replacement level is something like .260/.330/.450? That&#8217;s completely indefensible.</p>
<p>The bottom line is if the M&#8217;s bring in somebody who actually understands the philosophy the Twins use (developing from within is preferable to spending gobs of cash on free agents; here&#8217;s how we do this), they WILL be better off. Productivity of your minor league system is the number one reason why your team will succeed and fail, and, yes, the Mariners can learn from the Twins on this.</p>
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		<title>By: Breadbaker</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302046</link>
		<dc:creator>Breadbaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:16:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302046</guid>
		<description>One thing we can take from this is that the new GM will be told in no uncertain terms, that Kenji Johjima is an untouchable.  I wonder who crosses themselves off the list when they&#039;re told that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing we can take from this is that the new GM will be told in no uncertain terms, that Kenji Johjima is an untouchable.  I wonder who crosses themselves off the list when they&#8217;re told that.</p>
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		<title>By: PostCreatedAboveAverage</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302044</link>
		<dc:creator>PostCreatedAboveAverage</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:04:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302044</guid>
		<description>Gillick has also produced back to back playoff teams in Philadelphia, in a not so easy NL East divison (competing with the Mets who spend a lot and Braves who have always overachieved under Cox and Marlins who always play well with limited resources). 

Gillick may have depleted Phillies farm system also (I have no idea), but with respect to &quot;win now&quot; philosophy, he has consistently got the job done in 3 different cities - Toronto, Seattle and now Philadelphia. 

Gillick &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Bavasi (and probably many others). He may not be Theo Epstein or Billy Beane, but gets the job done. And has 2 WS rings and 3 different playoff teams in different eras to show for it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gillick has also produced back to back playoff teams in Philadelphia, in a not so easy NL East divison (competing with the Mets who spend a lot and Braves who have always overachieved under Cox and Marlins who always play well with limited resources). </p>
<p>Gillick may have depleted Phillies farm system also (I have no idea), but with respect to &#8220;win now&#8221; philosophy, he has consistently got the job done in 3 different cities &#8211; Toronto, Seattle and now Philadelphia. </p>
<p>Gillick &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Bavasi (and probably many others). He may not be Theo Epstein or Billy Beane, but gets the job done. And has 2 WS rings and 3 different playoff teams in different eras to show for it.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Nelson</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302036</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Nelson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:43:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302036</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Actually? I would disagree- the Mariners DO NOT do a good job of getting their MLB talent from their farm system, and the Twins do.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Going back to what Lincoln cited about the Twins: 
&lt;em&gt;&quot;They do better jobs in scouting, player development, operating the minor league system, and evaluating talent that can reach the major leagues than we do.&quot;&lt;/em&gt;

I think those are the current strengths of the Mariners organization.  Under Bavasi each of those areas has improved greatly.

The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent.  They have consistently overpaid for &quot;proven MLB players&quot;, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.

Your contention seems to be that the Twins do a better job of getting that talent to the major league roster; I don&#039;t disagree.  But that&#039;s not among the items that Lincoln listed.  

I would also contend that the Mariners are far less adept than the Twins at assessing minor league talent within other organizations and trading for that talent.  But again, that trait is not among the areas cited by Lincoln.

The aspects of the Minnesota organization that Lincoln cites are the Mariners strengths.  But the aspects that differentiate the Twins from the Mariners are not on his list.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Actually? I would disagree- the Mariners DO NOT do a good job of getting their MLB talent from their farm system, and the Twins do.</p></blockquote>
<p>Going back to what Lincoln cited about the Twins:<br />
<em>&#8220;They do better jobs in scouting, player development, operating the minor league system, and evaluating talent that can reach the major leagues than we do.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>I think those are the current strengths of the Mariners organization.  Under Bavasi each of those areas has improved greatly.</p>
<p>The key area in which the Mariners have stumbled is assessing major league talent.  They have consistently overpaid for &#8220;proven MLB players&#8221;, whether that be in signing in free agents or in trading minor league talent for those players.</p>
<p>Your contention seems to be that the Twins do a better job of getting that talent to the major league roster; I don&#8217;t disagree.  But that&#8217;s not among the items that Lincoln listed.  </p>
<p>I would also contend that the Mariners are far less adept than the Twins at assessing minor league talent within other organizations and trading for that talent.  But again, that trait is not among the areas cited by Lincoln.</p>
<p>The aspects of the Minnesota organization that Lincoln cites are the Mariners strengths.  But the aspects that differentiate the Twins from the Mariners are not on his list.</p>
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		<title>By: gwangung</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302033</link>
		<dc:creator>gwangung</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:24:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302033</guid>
		<description>eponymous coward, FTW.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>eponymous coward, FTW.</p>
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		<title>By: eponymous coward</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/09/30/thiel-and-lincoln-2/comment-page-1/#comment-302030</link>
		<dc:creator>eponymous coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:02:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6282#comment-302030</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;But the characteristics of Minnesota’s organization that he cites as exemplary are exactly the areas in which the Mariners are currently the strongest and in which they have made the most progress since Gillick left.&lt;/em&gt;

Actually? I would disagree- the Mariners DO NOT do a good job of getting their MLB talent from their farm system, and the Twins do. If the Mariners had a farm system like the Twins and a similar mindset, the 2008 rotation would have looked something like Felix, Bedard, Dickey, Baek, and one of RRS or Morrow, perhaps (either that or Bedard would have never gone in the first place).

There&#039;s a reason why Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva have ridiculous contracts from OTHER teams, but the Twins are playing a 163rd game. 

I would argue the Twins understand &quot;replacement level&quot; far, FAR better than the M&#039;s do (granted, salary constraints play a role in this). They also put a team out there that isn&#039;t chock full of defensive incompetence, and THAT has something to do with understanding &quot;replacement level&quot;. If senior Mariner management can find a GM who gets these two concepts alone, and they do the scouting/development right, they&#039;d be in much better shape.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>But the characteristics of Minnesota’s organization that he cites as exemplary are exactly the areas in which the Mariners are currently the strongest and in which they have made the most progress since Gillick left.</em></p>
<p>Actually? I would disagree- the Mariners DO NOT do a good job of getting their MLB talent from their farm system, and the Twins do. If the Mariners had a farm system like the Twins and a similar mindset, the 2008 rotation would have looked something like Felix, Bedard, Dickey, Baek, and one of RRS or Morrow, perhaps (either that or Bedard would have never gone in the first place).</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a reason why Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva have ridiculous contracts from OTHER teams, but the Twins are playing a 163rd game. </p>
<p>I would argue the Twins understand &#8220;replacement level&#8221; far, FAR better than the M&#8217;s do (granted, salary constraints play a role in this). They also put a team out there that isn&#8217;t chock full of defensive incompetence, and THAT has something to do with understanding &#8220;replacement level&#8221;. If senior Mariner management can find a GM who gets these two concepts alone, and they do the scouting/development right, they&#8217;d be in much better shape.</p>
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