Game 139, Mariners at Rangers
Happy Felix Day!
Felix v Nippert. Early, too: 11:05. Still televised, though.
Is it just me, or does Felix face the Rangers every week? This is his fifth start against Texas this year…
Rob Johnson and Luis Valbuena make their major league starting debuts today, playing C and 2B respectively. After my comment about Valbuena’s defense being suspect the other day, I got corrected by about fifteen people, so mea culpa – those who have watched him play a lot this year like his glove quite a bit.
Jimenez and Feierabend
Cesar Jimenez and Ryan Feierabend are two of the youngsters the M’s are taking a look at and trying to figure out where they fit into the organization’s future plans. Both are left-handed, both have quality major league change-ups, and both throw fastballs in the mid-80s. And, because of their repertoires of pitching, both have one other big thing in common – they’re much better against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters.
This is true of most pitchers who have a great change-up and not much else. The change is primarily a weapon to use against opposite handed hitters. The change-up from a lefty to a lefty ends up fading right back into the down-and-in wheelhouse that so many hitters love, but against a right-hander, the movement leads the ball away from the hitter, making it more effective. While the common belief is that a change-up is effective because of its speed, the movement of the pitch is also a big key.
Because both Jimenez and Feierabend feature quality change-ups and below average everything else, they really have nothing to throw left-handed hitters. Their mid-80s fastballs and crappy breaking balls hang like meatballs, and LH hitters simply tee off, just like Texas did last night. Against a line-up with more RH hitters, he’d have done better.
These reverse split type of pitchers are tough to find a role for, honestly. Because they don’t have anything to get LH hitters out, they’ll struggle in the rotation, and there aren’t many managers on earth who will use a southpaw as a bullpen specialist to get right-handed hitters. Realistically, both of them are probably looking at careers in long relief if they don’t learn how to spin a breaking ball to counteract left-handed bats.
That was the longest winning streak of the season
Four games… savor it while it’s still fresh in your memory.
Game 138, Mariners at Rangers
5:05, Feierabend vs McCarthy
Only triple of a season for the cycle
Scraps:
I wonder if anyone’s ever hit for the cycle and only had that one triple the whole season.
Sure, one: Olerud did it, June 16, 2001, his only triple of the year.
Buhner had three (three!) in 1993, when he did it. And Alex/Griffey, they hit triples like crazy.
Signs things are going right
Rich emailed:
I’d like to see maybe a list of things for people to look for that show the M’s making positive progress for 2009 and beyond. I’m not talking about the obvious stuff, but maybe a realistic look forward for some seriously dejected fans.
At the baseball operations level:
Team makes a good hire for their new GM
Yup, this is obvious, but even beyond “they hire a USSM dream candidate” it’s “they hire someone who isn’t a retread/doormat”
Fixes
The GM has a free hand to remake the roster and in a hurry, and gets into it
Organizational changes
New people are brought in to work in problem areas, and they have plans that make sense (“I’ve been thinking, maybe our hitting prospects should hit.”) The team brings in smart people to form the kind of analytical group other teams have.
Organizational philosophical indications
This may come as quickly as this next off-season. Who are they pursuing in free agency, and why? Are they repeating the same mistakes that got them into this hole, or are they making smarter decisions about how they pick pitchers? Are they putting together teams that play better defense? Are they spending money on veteran players that could easily be replaced with much cheaper alternatives? Who are they bringing in on minor league deals this spring?
For instance, the “role” thing — one of our huge, consistent problems in the Bavasi regime was the fixation on roles. “We’re looking for a left-handed designated hitter… there’s only one, let’s spend $5m. What, he sucks?”
The M’s are going to have some holes this off-season that can be solved in a couple ways:
– throwing money at veteran players who are established in those roles
– finding cheaper unlabeled alternatives
– abandoning the role label to do something really interesting.
Wins and efficiency
On a larger level, we should be able to step away from the team and see that they’re getting more for what they’re spending. 100 losses with this payroll should be an everyone’s fired moment. Intelligent spending and team-building will show up in both the team’s standings and in measures like $ spent per win.
Then, at the franchise level:
Team makes ownership group changes
See many, many previous rants about Lincoln and the ownership’s bafflement over getting their butt kicked year after year
Increased honesty
It’d be nice if the team for once didn’t actively lie to everyone about the year’s payroll and things like budgeting. I don’t want to write too much here, I’ll just get angry. Don’t wish too hard for this one. Especially without the previous item.
Increased openness
See here
Or you can just keep reading. We’ll try and keep you posted.
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
Yes, I’m playing around with the layout
Please do not panic.
And, as always: patches welcome.
Update: a L/R column update is coming.
Beltre WOO!
Through years of inaccurate criticisms and people referring to him as a disappointment, Adrian Beltre has continued to show up and play terrific baseball for his entire tenure as a Mariner.
Congratulations on your cycle, Adrian. Yet another great accomplishment for a guy who simply doesn’t get the credit he deserves.
Game 137, Mariners at Rangers
Carlos Silva is back! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.
The most important off-season decision
WoTYC, 4, tgf, by email:
What is the most important single decision/plan the next GM can make/implement to build a better team (long term)? Can be player personnel related, coaching, anything. Kind of general, but I’m sure you’ve thought about this as well.
Generally speaking and more in short-term, they’re going to have to come in and figure out how they can remake the team now, who’s going to be part of the core they rebuild around and who needs to be moved if at all possible. There’s going to be four big groups:
– Value outweighs what anyone will offer (Ichiro, Felix)
– Keep barring overwhelming offer (Beltre)
– Move if at all possible (Washburn)
– No one’s going to bite (Silva, Batista)
If a non-Lee GM comes in, the rumors are going to run amazingly fast as they try and figure out who’ll give them what for who (“Hey, remember when we you called about that AA prospect last season? Sure, and now I’m with the M’s– and do I have a seasoned major-league veteran for you.”)
My prediction is that the single biggest challenge will be what they do to rebuild the middle infield. It’s complicated, thorny, not regarded as a huge problem by many people who follow the team making selling dramatic action tough.
To return to the question, though — long term, the team will need to make some huge philosophical changes in how they do business. They need to change how the organization scouts and values pitchers, so they stop thinking Washburn/Silva types are good buys, they need to do a better job building a team defense. They need to get really smart sabermetric types to offer additional views the team can listen to, and then make sure they’re listened to. My area of expertise — and I’ll be volunteering for this if they hire certain GMs* — is that they absolutely have to build better technological tools to help the team. Other franchises have done amazing jobs putting together useful data stores that help them make scouting decisions, build great scouting reports, and support the work of all the other departments. The M’s need to catch up as fast as they can.
Overall it amounts to having to steer the entire organization into a new, more enlightened present. That’s the most important work facing the new GM, because as long as the M’s are organizationally dim, success will be much harder and come a ever more infrequently.
* I will not be taken up on this
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!