Food for thought: the Tampa Bay expansion baseball team will reach the world series before the Seattle Mariners.

Woot! We’re going to be in the Terrible Threesome along with The Nats/Los Amours and the Walker, Texas Rangers.

I wonder who might be the last. . .

Let’s not give up on him yet, okay?

Too late for me. . .

1) “in the league” means AL, not all of MLB.
2) You’re just looking at raw numbers. Context matters…

I totally agree with Conor. When you say a 90% Kenji Johjima, that does not automatically mean 90% of his OPS.

Also, who are we to say 85% of him, or 90%. Let’s not pull number’s out of our ***es just to prove our point. If you have a valid reason for saying 85 or 90% of Kenji, other than that it sounds right, let’s hear it.

Dave’s post has it right on, outside of a slight dip in HRFB (which is not outside of the realm of bad luck when HR are so few per AB anyways), I do not see one negative sustainable statistic from 2008 Kenji. Everything except HR/FB points to an improved hitter.

I think the best guess for 2009 Kenji is to think 2007 Kenji + 2 years older + 2 years better plate discipline. Also, he only played 112 games last year, he might be rested. I say 2009 Kenji is going to be every bit as valuable per game (in less games) as 2007 Kenji, only with a higher OBP and lower SLG.

The “quick and dirty” estimate for BABIP is 12% + LD%. As Dave mentioned, Kenji is slow; so that may overestimate his BABIP. In 2006 and 2007, Kenji’s BABIP was 29.2% and 29.1%, respectively, while his line drive rates were 19% and 20.1%, respectively. So quickly averaging these years (a weighted average would be better, but this will be close) Our best guess for Kenji’s “quick and dirty” BABIP is LD% + 9.6%.

Last year Kenji had a 23.3% BABIP while posting a 21.1% LD rate in 339 balls in play. Assuming 2008 Kenji is the same ol’ Kenji BABIP wise, we would guess that his BABIP would be 21.1% + 9.6%, or 30.7%.

Using a proportions test, we can see what the probability is that a .307 BABIP hitter would only get 79 or fewer hits in 339 balls in play. This probability is .2%. So 1 in 500 is a good guess to the probability that Kenji’s BABIP has not regressed.

That may seem like a lot, but about 200 people had 339 or more balls in play last year. Given that baseball is played every year, by many, many players, 1 in 500 is not crazy enough to justify an after the fact judgment.

I am not saying anyone should expect the 2007 Kenji, but Dave’s Kenji post should bring a rare little bit of optimism to all of us fans.

Two things…

1) “in the league” means AL, not all of MLB.
2) You’re just looking at raw numbers. Context matters…

Yes. And I’m not sure that park factors are “scalpely” enough to treat righties fairly in a place like Safeco.

It’s complicated.

For instance, Beltre might be considered a warrior rather than a bust by the Steve Phillips’ of the world, say, if he played in Philadelphia.

Wait, Kenji was .287 / .322 / .433 in ‘07. 90% of that is .258 / .290 / .390, for a .680 OPS. That would put him 16th among catchers with at least 400 PAs this year, ahead of only Brandon Inge, Jason Variteck, John Buck, Jason Kendall, and his own actual 2008 self. At 85% (.642) he’d only be ahead of himself. He’d still be much better than the ‘08 version, but I don’t think that would make him one of the best-hitting catchers in the league.

Feel free to pick other stats, but I’m not seeing an easy way to consider 90% of ‘07 Kenji to be quite that good.

Two things…

1) “in the league” means AL, not all of MLB.
2) You’re just looking at raw numbers. Context matters…

85 to 90% of 2007 Johjima is one of the best hitting catchers in the league. His down year really skews people’s memories of how good he was, and how scarce catchers who can hit a bit really are.

Just to piggyback on joser’s comment but, say we figure a conservatively optimistic 80% return to Johjima’s 2007 figures. His projected 2009 VORP (17.7 – 80% of 22.2 in 2007) would rank him 12th in the league based on 2008 league catcher totals. Not bad, top half of the league, but not “one of the best”. And that’s also taking some huge assumptions into consideration – similar playing time, no regression in skills, etc.

Johjima’s BABIP for 2008 by month:

March/April: .187
May: .296
June: .245
July: .146
August: .178
September: .333