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	<title>Comments on: Strasburg Alternative No. 2: Dustin Ackley</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: Wishhiker</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303321</link>
		<dc:creator>Wishhiker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Oct 2008 21:25:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303321</guid>
		<description>I figure Ackley is only really worth a look at #2 if he seems like a likely future CF after a year of playing in the outfield.  I like the possibilities with him if he has a good showing defensively in the outfield this year.  As far as him being like Edgar with more speed I think that&#039;s expecting a bit much.  It seems possible with his main comps, Utley, Gwynn and Damon posessing a lot of the same tools that made Edgar a great hitter.  With the specific question of 40 HR I must note that among those comps. only Chase Utley has surpassed 30 HR in a season though never 35 (twice out of 6 seasons).  Utley is the comp I&#039;ve seen listed most often on searches I&#039;ve done though.

This is what &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mlb-draft.com/Top-Prospects-2009.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;mlbdraft.com&lt;/a&gt; (the most detailed draft board I&#039;ve found) had to say.

Utley. Gwynn. Damon.  These are the names most often mentioned when discussing the offensive talent that oozes from the lefty-swinging Ackley.  His stance reminds one of Johnny Damon, he hits like Tony Gwynn as far as average and plate discipline, and has many projected him out to become another Chase Utley overall.  Think .320+ BA, 20+ HR power, 20+ SB ability via above-average speed, and excellent defensive skills... and that gives you an idea of how highly touted of a player the NC native is.  Another player that comes to mind is Nick Markakis.

The youngster has an ongoing issue that has to be considered when discussing his capabilities, and that is his right elbow/Tommy John surgery that Dr. James Andrews performed this past July.  Ackley throws with his right arm, and the injury has bothered him for sometime, forcing a move to 1B to save the arm some wear and tear.  Ackley is normally an outfielder, but took quite well to 1B, and may wind up sticking there.  There are some who see him as a 2B&#039;man, but most see an eventual return to the outfield.  His recovery is expected to be full, but one never knows the implications... long term.

One thing is for sure, the kid can hit, and he&#039;s a gamer.  Another positive is his affinity for wood bats, as he was crushing his fellow collegians in the highly regarded Cape Cod Summer League before having his surgery; to the tune of  .415/.586/.707/1.293 in 12 games (41 AB&#039;s) for the Harwich Mariners.  Small sample size, but the scouts all see it... he can flat out rake...



I&#039;m not so worried about him fitting in CF either if 2nd seems a good possibility as well.  It sounds like his bat could play at any position anyway.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I figure Ackley is only really worth a look at #2 if he seems like a likely future CF after a year of playing in the outfield.  I like the possibilities with him if he has a good showing defensively in the outfield this year.  As far as him being like Edgar with more speed I think that&#8217;s expecting a bit much.  It seems possible with his main comps, Utley, Gwynn and Damon posessing a lot of the same tools that made Edgar a great hitter.  With the specific question of 40 HR I must note that among those comps. only Chase Utley has surpassed 30 HR in a season though never 35 (twice out of 6 seasons).  Utley is the comp I&#8217;ve seen listed most often on searches I&#8217;ve done though.</p>
<p>This is what <a href="http://www.mlb-draft.com/Top-Prospects-2009.php" rel="nofollow">mlbdraft.com</a> (the most detailed draft board I&#8217;ve found) had to say.</p>
<p>Utley. Gwynn. Damon.  These are the names most often mentioned when discussing the offensive talent that oozes from the lefty-swinging Ackley.  His stance reminds one of Johnny Damon, he hits like Tony Gwynn as far as average and plate discipline, and has many projected him out to become another Chase Utley overall.  Think .320+ BA, 20+ HR power, 20+ SB ability via above-average speed, and excellent defensive skills&#8230; and that gives you an idea of how highly touted of a player the NC native is.  Another player that comes to mind is Nick Markakis.</p>
<p>The youngster has an ongoing issue that has to be considered when discussing his capabilities, and that is his right elbow/Tommy John surgery that Dr. James Andrews performed this past July.  Ackley throws with his right arm, and the injury has bothered him for sometime, forcing a move to 1B to save the arm some wear and tear.  Ackley is normally an outfielder, but took quite well to 1B, and may wind up sticking there.  There are some who see him as a 2B&#8217;man, but most see an eventual return to the outfield.  His recovery is expected to be full, but one never knows the implications&#8230; long term.</p>
<p>One thing is for sure, the kid can hit, and he&#8217;s a gamer.  Another positive is his affinity for wood bats, as he was crushing his fellow collegians in the highly regarded Cape Cod Summer League before having his surgery; to the tune of  .415/.586/.707/1.293 in 12 games (41 AB&#8217;s) for the Harwich Mariners.  Small sample size, but the scouts all see it&#8230; he can flat out rake&#8230;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not so worried about him fitting in CF either if 2nd seems a good possibility as well.  It sounds like his bat could play at any position anyway.</p>
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		<title>By: mln</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303184</link>
		<dc:creator>mln</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303184</guid>
		<description>[eugenics]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[eugenics]</p>
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		<title>By: The Ancient Mariner</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303136</link>
		<dc:creator>The Ancient Mariner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:53:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303136</guid>
		<description>In the meanwhile, getting back to the subject -- namely, Dustin Ackley -- what would appear to be the chance that he can actually play CF?  (I don&#039;t mind the rag arm so much if he can cover the ground, just so long as he doesn&#039;t hurt himself trying to make the throws.)  Also, realistically speaking, since he looks like a doubles hitter at the moment, are we talking a guy who could hit 40+ a year like Edgar did?  (Plus, one would hope, a few triples a year, given his speed.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the meanwhile, getting back to the subject &#8212; namely, Dustin Ackley &#8212; what would appear to be the chance that he can actually play CF?  (I don&#8217;t mind the rag arm so much if he can cover the ground, just so long as he doesn&#8217;t hurt himself trying to make the throws.)  Also, realistically speaking, since he looks like a doubles hitter at the moment, are we talking a guy who could hit 40+ a year like Edgar did?  (Plus, one would hope, a few triples a year, given his speed.)</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff Nye</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303129</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff Nye</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 03:47:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303129</guid>
		<description>That went pretty much how I expected.

No more eugenics talk.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That went pretty much how I expected.</p>
<p>No more eugenics talk.</p>
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		<title>By: mln</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303126</link>
		<dc:creator>mln</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 03:23:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303126</guid>
		<description>[waaaaaay over the line]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[waaaaaay over the line]</p>
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		<title>By: dave6267</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303124</link>
		<dc:creator>dave6267</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:26:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303124</guid>
		<description>I think people look at regression to the mean wrong sometimes. Yes, a son of a tall father will probably be shorter than his father, but that son is much more likely than the son of an average father to be extremely tall.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think people look at regression to the mean wrong sometimes. Yes, a son of a tall father will probably be shorter than his father, but that son is much more likely than the son of an average father to be extremely tall.</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff Nye</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303117</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff Nye</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 00:04:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303117</guid>
		<description>Yeah, we&#039;re getting pretty off-topic with the whole eugenics thing, especially since it all started from a pretty minor point Conor was trying to make.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, we&#8217;re getting pretty off-topic with the whole eugenics thing, especially since it all started from a pretty minor point Conor was trying to make.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303116</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 23:36:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303116</guid>
		<description>Well, we&#039;re getting more than a little off topic here, but before we get into deep eugenics doo-doo we should remember that &quot;regression to the mean&quot; as a statistical phenomena applies to population genetics as much as it does to hitting.  And that&#039;s going to be true of things like height, so that one shouldn&#039;t expect two extremely tall parents will automatically produce taller, or even equally tall, offspring.  In fact it was through the measurement of the height of parents in comparison with their children that the principle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.jcu.edu.au/school/pms/CGC/RegMean.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Regression to the Mean&lt;/a&gt; was discovered in the first place, by &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Galton&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Francis Galton&lt;/a&gt; who deserves to be better-remembered than he is, for better (statistics, fingerprints) and worse (eugenics, again).   

The nature of genetic inheritance means that while tall parents are more likely than average-height parents to have taller-than-&lt;i&gt;average&lt;/i&gt; offspring, their children are more likely to be shorter than &lt;i&gt;themselves&lt;/i&gt; vs. the children of average parents (at least on a statistical basis, barring oddities like pituitary disorders, etc).   So while Yao Ming&#039;s father might reasonably expect to have a tall son, it wasn&#039;t a good bet that the son would be taller than him.  Of course he was, but flukes do happen; if Yao had had brothers we wouldn&#039;t expect them to be equally tall.  And of course there are other factors beyond genetics -- how do we know Yao Ming&#039;s father reached his genetic potential?  How good was his nutrition when he was a growing child?  How good was his mother&#039;s nutrition when he was in the womb?  What other environmental factors might he have been exposed to?  This is the fundamental intellectual failure among eugenicists (be they English Victorians, German Fascists, or Chinese Socialists): there&#039;s a lot more to human potential than just genetic makeup.

Of course, Yao Ming is married to pro basketball player Ye Li, who at 6&#039;3&quot; is an inch taller than his mother.  That may be simply a matter of not having to look too far down when agreeing to whatever it is she&#039;s telling him to do.  Or perhaps, regardless of the odds, the quest for the Chinese &lt;i&gt;übermensch&lt;/i&gt; continues.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, we&#8217;re getting more than a little off topic here, but before we get into deep eugenics doo-doo we should remember that &#8220;regression to the mean&#8221; as a statistical phenomena applies to population genetics as much as it does to hitting.  And that&#8217;s going to be true of things like height, so that one shouldn&#8217;t expect two extremely tall parents will automatically produce taller, or even equally tall, offspring.  In fact it was through the measurement of the height of parents in comparison with their children that the principle of <a href="http://www.jcu.edu.au/school/pms/CGC/RegMean.html" rel="nofollow">Regression to the Mean</a> was discovered in the first place, by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Galton" rel="nofollow">Francis Galton</a> who deserves to be better-remembered than he is, for better (statistics, fingerprints) and worse (eugenics, again).   </p>
<p>The nature of genetic inheritance means that while tall parents are more likely than average-height parents to have taller-than-<i>average</i> offspring, their children are more likely to be shorter than <i>themselves</i> vs. the children of average parents (at least on a statistical basis, barring oddities like pituitary disorders, etc).   So while Yao Ming&#8217;s father might reasonably expect to have a tall son, it wasn&#8217;t a good bet that the son would be taller than him.  Of course he was, but flukes do happen; if Yao had had brothers we wouldn&#8217;t expect them to be equally tall.  And of course there are other factors beyond genetics &#8212; how do we know Yao Ming&#8217;s father reached his genetic potential?  How good was his nutrition when he was a growing child?  How good was his mother&#8217;s nutrition when he was in the womb?  What other environmental factors might he have been exposed to?  This is the fundamental intellectual failure among eugenicists (be they English Victorians, German Fascists, or Chinese Socialists): there&#8217;s a lot more to human potential than just genetic makeup.</p>
<p>Of course, Yao Ming is married to pro basketball player Ye Li, who at 6&#8242;3&#8243; is an inch taller than his mother.  That may be simply a matter of not having to look too far down when agreeing to whatever it is she&#8217;s telling him to do.  Or perhaps, regardless of the odds, the quest for the Chinese <i>übermensch</i> continues.</p>
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		<title>By: HerseyChris</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303115</link>
		<dc:creator>HerseyChris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:51:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303115</guid>
		<description>If you haven&#039;t, and you&#039;re interested in sports or China, read &#039;Operation Yao Ming&#039;.  It&#039;s a great book that gives insight into a lot of things related to China.  Whether it&#039;s the sports camps, the politics, their olympic aspirations, their tendency to lie about age, the way socialism affected sports, etc.  Great book all around.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you haven&#8217;t, and you&#8217;re interested in sports or China, read &#8216;Operation Yao Ming&#8217;.  It&#8217;s a great book that gives insight into a lot of things related to China.  Whether it&#8217;s the sports camps, the politics, their olympic aspirations, their tendency to lie about age, the way socialism affected sports, etc.  Great book all around.</p>
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		<title>By: vj</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/comment-page-1/#comment-303114</link>
		<dc:creator>vj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:04:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6461#comment-303114</guid>
		<description>I have seen an &lt;a href=&quot;http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/dokument/dokument.html?top=Ref&amp;dokname=Romberg-SP-00012007000170014400&amp;titel=Der+Sohn+Maos+(DER+SPIEGEL+vom+23.04.2007)&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;article &lt;/a&gt;suggesting that Yao Ming was in fact &#039;bred&#039; to be a basketball player. The article (in German, unfortunately, but from a reputable source, Germany&#039;s most influential news magazine DER SPIEGEL) states that the Chinese government arranged the marriage between his parents so that their children would inherit their size and ability in basketball.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have seen an <a href="http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/dokument/dokument.html?top=Ref&amp;dokname=Romberg-SP-00012007000170014400&amp;titel=Der+Sohn+Maos+(DER+SPIEGEL+vom+23.04.2007)" rel="nofollow">article </a>suggesting that Yao Ming was in fact &#8216;bred&#8217; to be a basketball player. The article (in German, unfortunately, but from a reputable source, Germany&#8217;s most influential news magazine DER SPIEGEL) states that the Chinese government arranged the marriage between his parents so that their children would inherit their size and ability in basketball.</p>
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