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The 2010 Mariners Outfield
Continuing the series from yesterday, but looking at the outfield this time.
Left Field: Wladimir Balentien, Michael Saunders, Gregory Halman
It’s a veritable tools fest, but lots of questions remain. Balentien can hit a fastball, has no idea what to do with a breaking ball, and didn’t make the necessary adjustments as the season went on. Of course, his real talent level is way better than his ‘08 performance, and his numbers will get better even if he doesn’t improve all that much. But as a right-handed pull power guy, Safeco’s going to be rough on him, and he’s not going to add a lot of defensive value. He has to hit to be a regular, and whether the bat is a good enough fit for the park, and whether he can learn how to hit breaking balls, make him a question mark.
Thankfully, there’s a couple of talented outfielders on the way. Saunders is a much more rounded player than Balentien, not having a standout tool but adding defensive value and baserunning value as well as his offensive potential. He also bats left-handed, which is a plus, and has shown some willingness to take a walk in the minors. I’ve referred to him as Shin-Soo Choo without the accent several times, and that’s a pretty decent comparison in terms of skills, but the more I look at him, the more I see Randy Winn. He’s something of a tweener, with a bat that could be very good in CF and a glove that would be very good in a corner. For 2010, he’s probably a better fit than Balentien for what the club needs, and should probably be considered the front runner.
If both of those guys fail to develop, there’s one more option - Gregory Halman, a fascinating kid with remarkable power and a hilariously horrible concept of the strike zone. He regularly runs strikeout rates about five times higher than his walk rates, as he chases pitches out of the zone and gets himself out by swinging at pitches he can’t hit. But oh, the power/speed combination is just so enticing, and Halman was able to hold his own while getting pushed aggressively to Double-A as a 20-year-old this year. In a perfect world, he becomes Alfonso Soriano, but Juan Encarnacion is more likely. Whether he can make enough strides to be ready by 2010 is questionable, but the possibility is there. As a fallback option, he’s not a bad one.
Center Field: Jeremy Reed, Ichiro, Michael Saunders, Gregory Halman
The lack of development of Reed’s bat has been a big blow to the club - instead of having a high on base guy who can cover some ground, he’s evolved into a fourth outfielder, a guy who shouldn’t be more than a defensive replacement or pinch runner on a good team. At 27, he’s running out of shots to earn a full time job, and if he doesn’t hit .320 or something next year, he’s probably out of the picture. 2009 represents his last chance.
The team could consider moving Ichiro back to center field, but while I know that there’s a lot of sentiment in favor of that because his skillset looks more like that of a CF, I don’t think it really matters one way or another. His defense isn’t somehow exponentially more valuable in CF than in RF - the difference in opportunities equates to a couple of runs per season. And while it’s true that it’s easier to find a power hitting corner OF than a power hitting CF, the focus on needing specific player types is just wrong - the M’s don’t need to make room for a slugger, they need to get more good players. Good players come in all shapes and sizes, and the team shouldn’t avoid a terrific defensive CF just because they’re trying to put Ichiro where most players who look like him play.
Halman is more likely to get the nod in CF than Saunders, of the two kids we’ve already talked about, as he’s just a better athlete. He still needs to get better reads and jumps to be an asset in CF with the glove, but he’s got a shot to stick there. Saunders is more of a stretch.
Right Field: Ichiro
He’s not getting traded unless he asks for one, and really, a 2010 Mariners team that doensn’t have Ichiro on it is pretty unlikely to be a winner. He’s still better than everyone realizes, and the people who think he’s what’s wrong with the team don’t really know how to build a baseball team.
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In the last few years there have been a few pitchers who have to contributed to a 25 man roster within a year of their draft.What’s the quickest turn around you could imagine for a bat say a Yonder Alonzo type that actually had a little range and knew what a glove was?
How on earth is that on topic?
I always thought Reed would be more valuable in the NL as a LH bat coming off the bench. I know his name has come up before in trade discussion but what’s a realistic return on a player like him? By himself, it can’t be much but how about packaging him with somebody else for a 1B or something?
Wouldn’t it be best DEFENSIVELY to put WLAD in RF instead of LF or CF?
I don’t think an outfield of Reed (LF), ICHIRO! (CF) and WLAD (RF) would be too bad…
WLAD would probably play a RF like Guillen, who by no means was good, but it would be better than watching WLAD try to Ibanez it out there in LF…
If Jeremy Reed is this team’s LF in 2010, we’ll lose 90 games.
Feel free to delete the comment-you won’t offend me but:
There is a draft in ‘09 and 2010 is a year later give or take. So, could there ever be a possibility to draft an OFer for sometime in 2010?
Let’s hope there’s a 0% chance of Ibanez playing left field in 2010.
I was just looking at what the team has right now. Obviously, Reed would be a better 4th outfielder or a piece of a trade.
Hopefully now that the WS is over, we get to see some player movement and Z brings in some fresh blood, so Reed can be a good bench player.
I agree with Dave, J-Reed should NOT be in LF.
The M’s need to look at ALL of the OF options this year and next, whether it be in the draft, or trades.
That is what makes Z’s scouting team’s job all that much harder. They don’t JUST look at draftable talent, they look everywhere.
All that being said, the M’s need 2 OF’s. and the folks that were playing out there this year won’t cut it unless defense and bat’s get better. Ichiro should stay where he is. I think it’s been mentioned here that he was only average defense in CF, so why not keep him +Defense in RF?
As for the other 2/3’s of the OF. It’ll be fun to follow spring training to see how things pan out.
Good call SOS:
That might have been the most frustrating thing about last year, aside from the rotation for me…
Out of all the different problems, watching Ibanez out there was embarrasing, frustrating, etc.
If he won’t DH, he needs to go…
But Z better get a pick out of it, unlike what Bavasi didn’t do with Guillen…
All logical baseball analysis and scouting aside…
given the endless parade of busts we’ve had, don’t we just flat out deserve to have Halman pan out as a Soriano type? after all, Soriano did for the evil empire, right? where is our stroke of luck? does God truly hate the Seattle mariners?
I had a dream (nightmare) last night that Raul Ibanez returned next season as our player/coach. My subconscious is not optimistic about this off-season.
To a large degree 2010 will be influenced by what happens in 2009. With that said, Wlad will probably be given the chance to sink or swim (unless Z completely disagrees with his potential).
I think you are probably looking at a Ichiro, Wlad, x outfield with the x being dependent on who steps up and/or who is traded for. It is a very fluid dynamic and we should probably take a peek at who might be blocked/available in Milwaukee as potential trade oppty.
As for who plays where, it totally depends on who player x is but I can definitely see a scenario where Ichiro ends up back in CF.
Ichiro’s production is so unique that it belies his value and often makes him look both over and under - rated. That being said, for a team so desperately lacking in POWER we can not continue have a power postion with NO power. With Ich in RF, we need to get production from a non tradition position and since we can’t even get avg production from the traditional positions we can’t afford to “give up” the spot.
Reeder, while I love the guy, is a 4th OFer at best.
The team is invested in Wlad, so fine give him the spot in RF. I like his potential and while he took some shots for his D he’s not Raul out there.
Wlad in RF, Ich in CF and new guy in LF.
This is the only suitable answer.
Right on with the comment about CF. I get so frustrated with people saying “we need power,” or “we don’t need more pitching, we need hitting,” etc. The fact is an upgrade is an upgrade, and an extra run saved or prevented is an extra run.
However, I get the sense that Reed has just been jerked around too much to know whether he can really hit or not. His much more substantial minor league records suggest to me that he deserves a much better chance than he’s ever been given.
That might have been Bavasi’s biggest weekness…everything had to fit a specific role…
Hopefully the new regime understands that talent is the most important factor, not pre-concieved ideas about roles…
BillP, yes I agree. It takes a few years for players, hitters to adjust to the big league. I remember Ibanez was not resigned and then once he showed what he could do in KC the M’s welcomed him back. And look at Dobbs. Players just need time to produce. Hitting that little ball is supposedly one of the hardest things to do in all of sports. Michael Jordan could not do it.
I am not a fan of Reed or Balentien and I think the M’s should trade both of them and move on.
I don’t like being so down on a young player like Balentien but I agree 100% with Dave that his skill set is not set up well for Safeco Field.
I think the M’s need a lot more team speed, left-handed bats and good gloves and Balentien offers none of the above.
The trade of Adam Jones stings all the more now as he would be PERFECT in CF and then the team would just need to figure out LF.
Dave, are there any good trade or free agent targets that could play CF and/or LF next year?
Dave… If you had to project 500 PA for Halman in the majors for 09, what would his line look like? 260/280/420?
Also, would it be a waste to bring in a Patterson or Lofton type to platoon with Wlad? Could Wlad continue to develop in the major league if he only played as a platoon player in 09?
I’m the resident WladFan, so I’ll just point out that based on what I’ve seen, Wlad has a much better chance of saving runs defensively in left *in 2009/10* than Saunders. Mike’s got great tools out there, but he looked lost in RF when I saw him. Again, Choo and even Reed have looked lost there, but fwiw, I think Saunders will benefit from a year or two to stick with a corner position and really learn it. Part of his problem was that he’d played CF so much in West Tenn., and then got moved over in Tacoma.
Halman is the game changer here; if he sticks in CF (and he’s played there a bit in the AFL), and if he’s able to build on his 2008, he could be a great asset. He’s still really young, so it may take him until the end of 2010 to be really ready. Still, from a guy who flamed out of the MWL to a guy who dominated AA at times at age 20… this guy moved himself out of the “intriguing tools prospect” and into “top 100 prospects in baseball” territory.
Hay Dave! Aren’t you forgetting someone?! Don’t you know our starting centerfielder is going to be KEN GRIFFEY JR?!
It’s all but done in the eyes of the fanbase!
Don’t think Dennis Raben will be up by then? Do you think he will move quickly through the minors? Do you think he has a chance to stay in the OF?
I find Halman intriguing, and fun, but if he doesn’t figure out how to stop himself swinging at trash outside the strike zone, he’ll be lucky if his line at the MLB level is going to be .140/.200/.200. MLB pitchers will never throw him anything close to a strike — why should they? Give him three in the dirt and he’ll be out anyways.
Defensively speaking, an outfield of Halman, Saunders, and Ichiro should be one of the best in business. You’ve got above average arms and range in there no matter how you shake it up. I think the M’s go into 2010 with those guys in the starting lineup, carrying Wlad as the 4th outfielder and platoon partner for Saunders. If Saunders ends up in RF, Tui might be a better platoon option.
It seems likely that the 2009 M’s open with Wlad in LF, Reed in CF, and Ichiro in RF. Saunders will probably be ready for a shot at CF in July forcing Wlad or Reed to the bench. Saunders will likely initially get a chance to prove himself in CF before moving to a corner when Halman comes up for a cup of coffee in September. If Halman can’t cut it in CF, then Ichiro should be moved back.
I think Zduriencik needs to work under the assumption that his outfield is set for the next few years. Maybe you bring in a semi-legit part-timer like Baldelli to fill in for now. If Halman, Saunders, Tui, and Wlad can’t cut it, he can address that issue down the road.
Baldelli is an interesting option. With his health concerns, he may come relatively cheap and he’s a known quantity with the bat. I wonder how willing he’d be to join a rebuilding effort after so many years of suckitude in TB?
Yeah, gee, if Bavasi was still around, you’d know he’d just be salivating over the prospect of picking up Griffey’s $16.5 M option for next year.
Dave, I’m new to this site and I’m pretty much the guy you describe:
Although I don’t think he’s THE problem, I think he’s a big part of the problem. I’ve even said that I don’t think the M’s can ever be a playoff team again until he’s gone. I support trading him, though I know that will NEVER happen.
My question:
Is there a post where you describe his value to the team? I’d love to read it.
The search button is your friend. So is the “USSM Orientation” link at the top.
http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/11/ichiro-20-million-a-year/
http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/24/ichiro-the-underrated/
Ever used the search button on Ichiro? I could spend hours looking for it.
Already read the orientation.
Thanks Dave.
DRaysBay has an interesting thread on the topic of Rocco. I like the guy, and his comeback story is inspiring. If the Rays do let him go, I can envision some kind of platoon in LF, whereas Rocco plays half the game and Wlad/Reed finish it up.
Also, I should note that my math on Ichiro in the $20 million a year post isn’t right, and if I re-ran the analysis today, the conclusion would be more that he’s a +3 to $3.5 win player. That makes him worth about $15 to $18 million in terms of market value - what we’d expect him to sign for this winter.
And that’s what the M’s are paying him, not even factoring in all the revenue he generates for the club. It’s almost impossible to create a scenario where Ichiro isn’t a huge asset to the M’s.
I think sometimes we get caught up in our own system a little too much. I believe that an outfield of Halman, Saunders, and Ichiro in 2010 is not the answer. It’s really not that much better than Reed, Ichiro, and Ibanez (maybe defensively in LF) but overall, not much better.
Think of the good teams in baseball. The Red Sox have Drew, Bay, and Ellsbury. Heck, their fourth outfielder (Crisp) would be our 2nd best outfielder right now. Two of their guys are 25+ HR potential guys. The Rays have Crawford, Baldelli, and Upton…same thing here. The only argument you could have here is with the Phillies who have Burrell, Werth, and Victorino who only have one true power guy. But they also have Ryan Howard and Utley to put in the middle of the order. The Angels have Vlad and Torii and even GMJ (even though he’s kinda faded).
I have no problems with Halman and Saunders in the outfield with Ichiro but we sure as heck better get some middle-of-the-lineup type guys in the infield who can hit the ball a long way.
Don’t think Dennis Raben will be up by then? Do you think he will move quickly through the minors? Do you think he has a chance to stay in the OF?
why is there such a large contigent of people who seem to be sold on dennis raben as a legitimate major leauge hitter? isnt his upside essentially Wlad from the other side of the plate?
drop some knowledge on this Hurricane, Dave.
Wouldn’t Wlad from the other side of the plate be > Wlad? In Safeco anyway. This is of course assuming he’ll make the necessary adjustments and become the hitter we think (hope) he can be.
Although I don’t think he’s THE problem, I think he’s a big part of the problem. I’ve even said that I don’t think the M’s can ever be a playoff team again until he’s gone.
Could you go into detail what you think the problem could be that requires getting rid of Ichiro? Because I swear I saw Ichiro play great ball on a 116 win team, two 93 win ones, and an 88 win team, but apparently I was mistaken.
Dennis Raben from my very inexperienced opinion and from seeing him play four games this year is that he has impressive power hitting the ball to all fields and has very good plate discipline, but seems way too slow to stay in the outfield.
I’m no Dave, but I was impressed.
Does Raben have the bat to hold down a corner IF spot?
doesnt look like raben played much from just looking at milb.com.
dont get me wrong, id love him to pan out as some sort of Pat Burrell type, I just recall Dave and others not being very high on him after the draft. someone called him ben grieve. Im just curious if that perception has changed, or people just want to be stoked on a second round pick with alot of power.
I will say that peripheral line is beautiful to look at- .275/.411/560. but its everett.
BBOneFive, we’ve been playing Richie Sexson and Miguel Cairo at 1b, and Vidro at DH. I’d say that if Raben has a good amount of walks and iso-Power that he’ll be a definite improvement over what we had last year.
It’s pretty hard to tell if Raben will be a 220/320/400 bat or a 270/380/500 bat considering he hasn’t even played in AA yet. I don’t think anyone thought Raul Ibanez would be the offensive stud he has become after his first pro season.
Hell, he may even be an above average fielder at first as well.
I think sometimes we get caught up in our own system a little too much.
The entire point of these posts is to look at what’s available in the system right now, try to determine if it is likely to provide good enough players to contend in 2010, and if not, identify positions where new players will have to be brought in from the outside.
No one’s suggesting that the team should plan on a Saunders/Reed/Ichiro OF in 2010.
I watched the AZ all-star game the other night. The good news–Halman made the starting team for the West. The bad news–he flailed badly and struck out twice the first two times up. Made an easy catch in right field. Yes, I know, small sample size.
Dave: Do you see any hope left for Michael Wilson? Sure, he was a 25 year old repeating AA, but he showed an impressive combination of power and walks. Outside of his half-season 2007 (I’m guessing he was injured some of the year?), he’s more or less always put up solid hitting numbers. Is there any chance that, hitting his physical prime, he could contribute at a ~average level in 2010?
(he might be out of options, too? that would obviously be an issue from the Mariners’ perspective)
For the right price, I think he would be willing to come play in Seattle. When he was brought up he was considered a possible 30/30 guy. Now that they finally figured out what was wrong with him it might be a good investment. He doesn’t walk much but seems to be an upgrade defensively in the outfield.
Raben doesn’t have to be good to make it to the 2010 team. All he has to be is better than what we already have which isn’t too hard. All the guys Dave talked about are interesting but there are no sure things (sans Ichiro hopefully). Our system doesn’t have that much talent in the OF and Raben represents one of the best we currently have. I was just surprised not to see him mentioned.
Ibanez just filed for free agency. So hopefully we will offer him arbitration, he will reject, and will sign with someone who has a fairly good record so we will get another first round pick.
Also in my opinion 2010 is a little early for the mariners to begin to contend. Don’t get me wrong I would love it if they could get into contention by then, but realistically we will not be able to win a world series by then. However by 2012 our upcoming prospects( Triunfel, Halman, Saunders, Moore, Aumont, Dejesus, Raben, Pineda) and however we draft next year will have made it up to the big leagues and either proven themselves worthy or not of a big league job. Also by then our younger prospects(Martinez, Noriega, Nunez) and future draft picks will be waiting in the wings. Of course not all of these people will make it to the big leagues, and others will emerge, but that is a pretty good base to build on. However if we want we can rush our prospects up through the system, having them arrive unprepared and then dropped or sold cheap for aging and injured free agents who at best might get us into contention for 1 or 2 years. However if we allow our team to build slowly on strong drafts and and good international signings for years. And unlike the marlins we also have the payroll to lock our players up for a long time.
Raben was included in the 2010 IF post, at 1B.
I’m sorry, but how can you look at Balentien, Saunders, and Halman and decide that this organization doesn’t have much talent in the OF?
Seriously, there probably isn’t another organization in baseball with a better trio of outfield prospects. They all have issues, and there’s not franchise player in the group, but at some point, you guys have to stop and recognize that some good things happened during the Bavasi regime, and the current strength of the minors is reflective of that.
Get over this “can’t contend until 2012″ crap. This team isn’t in that bad of shape.
Oh don’t get me wrong i think we could contend easily be 1010, but there is a rather large difference between contention and winning the 97 games it takes to beat the angels, let alone win a WS ring. I was more just posing the question are we going to try for a one or two year contention stretch again, or build a team that will contend for years and years.
We’ve been over this ad nauseam before.
This isn’t Cleveland; the Mariners don’t have to do a rebuild in that style.
Uh oh…the M’s are traveling back in time to play the Normans in the WS!
Seriously, though, I agree…I don’t think this necessarily has to be a four-year rebuild plan, either.
Dave beat me to it, but holy balls that was odd. The M’s have one clear advantage over their rivals in their system: outfielders.
I know, it’s new and different for an org that hasn’t really developed a home-grown OF in a looong time, but it’s true. It’d be great to have a corner IF or two, however.
I definitely agree that we have talent in the OF but they all have major flaws. This is pretty understandable and why they are still prospects. We have major holes in LF and CF with three legit OF prospects. I agree that we have OF prospects with tons of tools. I disagree that the system is “loaded” with talent in the OF especially compared to what will be needed by 2010. I think in the next couple years we should be able to field an OF with good/great defense but I’m skeptical right now that we will be able to produce solid offensive players at those positions.
Compare our OF prospects to the others in the division. I’ll take 23 yrs or less as “prospects” (younger than Wlad).
LAA: Peter Bourjos, Chris Pettit, Jeremy Moore
OAK: Ryan Sweeney, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Cunningham
TEX: Engel Beltre, Julio Borbon
I think its pretty safe to say Oakland has the best young outfield out there in the AL west. We are probably better than LAA and maybe a tad better than Texas (all very subjective). If our OF prospects are our strength then I’m worried. That said, we do have enough talent there and else where around the field that we can be plenty competitive in 2010. A few smart moves to fill some huge holes and this ballclub shouldn’t be too far away.
oh, man, and they are tough.
This, to me, is the reason to be open to trading Ichiro. I’d rather have 3(or 4? or 2?) future contributors.
Can’t we at least listen to offers?
This, to me, is the reason to be open to trading Ichiro. I’d rather have 3(or 4? or 2?) future contributors.
Can’t we at least listen to offers?
Ichiro is going into his age-35 season, coming off a down year statistically, has four years left on his contract, and is owed $17 million a year. I don’t see why any team would be willing to give up valuable prospects for Ichiro.
This isn’t a Bedard or Peavy situation, where you’re dealing with a good, young pitcher who is under team control for a few years at a below-market price. He’s not going to net the M’s a big package of young talent, and there’s no point in trading him just to trade him. This organization can afford him. And it needs at least one good baseball player.
I think it might be time to start auto-moderating any comments that include the words “trade” and “Ichiro”.
It’s replaced “why isn’t Willie Bloomquist a starter?” as the most beaten-to-death topic here.