Compare with Chen, who maybe has a 1.0 WAR upside, but has a 25% chance of making it. That’d make him a .25 WAR value – still replacement level/non-prospect, but a shade better.

As for Chen’s spot, I’d agree that he’s behind Valbuena/Hulett, but I’d argue that Hulett’s probably not a bad option for the major league bench, and Chen should have been able to get enough at-bats in Tacoma that keeping him wouldn’t have been a total waste.

It’s not a big deal, and I probably made this post sound more negative about this than I am. They’re both basically replacement level guys, so losing one or the other isn’t the end of the world. I just don’t happen to think Wilson’s particularly interesting.

Finally, if Wilson makes it and is 1.5, what are you envisioning for Chen? There’s no way he can play enough to really rack up wins, because he can’t play CF/LF/SS. Where do you think he might stand as a defender now that he’s had major knee surgery?
Putting Wilson aside, Chen seems like he’d rank 4th or so on a list of potential bench players in the M’s org in the high minors. Agree/disagree?

Marcus Thames isn’t the worst comparison in the world, even though he’s quite a bit better than Wilson, skill wise. But Thames is like a 1.5 WAR player at best, and that’s really Wilson’s upside. He’s just not very good.

I agree that Wilson is either a make-it-or-not guy, and that he’s more of a long shot to become a long-term MLB player. Still though, I’d take a 10% chance of a 3 WAR player over a 40% chance of a 0.5 WAR player.

Chen’s skills seem to indicate he’d be a decent bench player, but he simply doesn’t have the positional flexibility to really add value. He’d be a better on-base threat than Willie Bloomquist, but there’s simply no way he can play up the middle defense except at 2b. The guy got to play multiple positions in Tacoma, but only going *the other way* on the defensive spectrum. He can fill in at a corner IF spot, but then you’ve got Chen’s bat at a corner. Again, this is a no-risk move for the A’s to bet that his power will return after the long layoff. But I’m not betting on his defense returning after a year and a half layoff for knee and shoulder problems. Hulett is a better bet to be a nifty bench player given that he’s played SS and has more power/OBP potential. Valbuena’s simply a better player, and might be a potential starter down the line. Chen can’t compete with these two, and it’s an open question whether he’d be better as a bench guy than Navarro (Oswaldo’s defense is much better, Chen’s bat is much better).

Meanwhile, Wilson’s a long-shot, but I can see him turn into Marcus Thames or something.

It has Wilson with slightly more potential, but further away from the majors. A tad more reward, but more risk. Wilson has almost no chance of being a decent role player in the majors – he’s either going to make it or he’s not, with no in between.

Chen has a chance to be a nifty bench player. If forced to pick between those two, I’d take Chen.

Question: How much of current M’s policy is run by Zduriencik (sp?), and how much is run by Pelekoudas’s guys, who are still in place?

what do you mean by policy?